Brexit deal

[SydneyRover]

So not getting industry help for a pork barrel election?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Politics late-2019.

Here's a prominent Tory Brexit supporter admiringly quoting Satan.

https://mobile.twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1179184311108538369

Context. That's a quote from Satan in Paradise Lost, where he's mulling over destroying the world so that it can be rebuilt as he wants it to be.

f**k me sideways...

[Glyn_Wigley]

Boris solution to ditching the backstop? He wants goods going from GB to NI or vice versa to have a Customs Declaration, because that's where the checks are going to happen!

[SydneyRover]

Boris solution to ditching the backstop? He wants goods going from GB to NI or vice versa to have a Customs Declaration, because that's where the checks are going to happen!

So the rumours that johnson has asked trump and the Chinese to give him quotes to build an island off the Giants Causeway to be called North-Northern Island are not true?

[SydneyRover]

the Tele says johnson is demanding that the EU opens talks on his cunning plan by the weekend or take the blame for No-Deal

[IDM]

The no deal that he is legally bound to avoid by Parliament, if a deal isn’t agreed.??

[drfchound]

Soooo, what happens if the EU won’t accept his proposed deal, won’t give yet another extension and Parliament say he is legally bound to avoid no deal.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Soooo, what happens if the EU won’t accept his proposed deal, won’t give yet another extension and Parliament say he is legally bound to avoid no deal.

That's not what Parliament said.

[drfchound]

Soooo, what happens if the EU won’t accept his proposed deal, won’t give yet another extension and Parliament say he is legally bound to avoid no deal.

That's not what Parliament said.

I didn’t suggest that they had.
IDM did.

[SydneyRover]

Also what happens if the EU agrees to negotiations but they cannot agree before the 32st?

[SydneyRover]

''Boris Johnson’s final “take it or leave it” Brexit offer to Brussels is in danger of being dead on arrival after it was rounded on by government and opposition parties in Ireland.

The prime minister’s proposals were described as unworkable, unacceptable and illegal under British domestic law, which bans any new infrastructure on the Irish border that did not exist before Brexit day.

“If this is the final offer, then there is not a deal to be had,” said one EU official.

Ireland’s European affairs minister, Helen McEntee, said the plans would not be acceptable to Dublin and raised doubts that Johnson was sincere in wanting a deal.

She said: “What we are talking about again is picking and choosing certain parts of the single market that would be aligned in Northern Ireland. It is talking about a time limit, which again is not acceptable.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/02/irish-officials-dismiss-boris-johnson-brexit-offer-as-unacceptable

[IDM]

Soooo, what happens if the EU won’t accept his proposed deal, won’t give yet another extension and Parliament say he is legally bound to avoid no deal.

That's not what Parliament said.

I didn’t suggest that they had.
IDM did.

Yes I did.. the law passed recently to avoid no deal..

[drfchound]

So is Glyn wrong then when he says that is not what Parliament said?

[Glyn_Wigley]

If there isn't a deal put before Parliament, or if Parliament rejects a deal put before them, then Boris has to ask for an extension by 31st Oct. It didn't make No Deal impossible.

[drfchound]

Yeah but I asked what happens if the EU won’t give another extension.

[SydneyRover]

Yeah but I asked what happens if the EU won’t give another extension.

Then I presume it's up to the opposition alliance to get legislation up before the 31st to stop the madman from wrecking the UK

[drfchound]

I am now waiting for someone else to offer a different opinion.

[IDM]

If there isn't a deal put before Parliament, or if Parliament rejects a deal put before them, then Boris has to ask for an extension by 31st Oct. It didn't make No Deal impossible.

I thought it made no deal not possible, for 31 Oct.?  Assuming the government abides by the law and requests the extension as the law demands.

If subsequently the EU denies an extension, then the UK has to act pretty quickly to set up another deal or parliament approves no deal.  I can’t see the latter happening so you’re into the territory of a no confidence vote and even potentially revoking article 50.

To be honest I can’t see the EU rejecting an extension request..

[Glyn_Wigley]

Yeah but I asked what happens if the EU won’t give another extension.

If Boris asks for the extension, he's complied with the Benn Act, Parliament cant force the EU to give one. If MPs want to stop No Deal in those circumstances they'll have to do something else. It'd probably force them to bang their heads together and work something out so they can introduce a VONC with the certainty of there being a replacement (albeit temporary) Government that commands a majority and gets the reins out of Boris's and Cummings' hands.

[drfchound]

Yeah but I asked what happens if the EU won’t give another extension.

If Boris asks for the extension, he's complied with the Benn Act, Parliament cant force the EU to give one. If MPs want to stop No Deal in those circumstances they'll have to do something else. It'd probably force them to bang their heads together and work something out so they can introduce a VONC with the certainty of there being a replacement (albeit temporary) Government that commands a majority and gets the reins out of Boris's and Cummings' hands.

Thanks for that explanation.
However, what you say is all well and good but.........we have no guarantee that whatever the interim government came up with, that the EU would accept it.
We also don’t know whether we would be allowed a further extension.
Genuinely, what happens then?

[i_ateallthepies]

We crash out and Johnson gets another five years.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Yeah but I asked what happens if the EU won’t give another extension.

If Boris asks for the extension, he's complied with the Benn Act, Parliament cant force the EU to give one. If MPs want to stop No Deal in those circumstances they'll have to do something else. It'd probably force them to bang their heads together and work something out so they can introduce a VONC with the certainty of there being a replacement (albeit temporary) Government that commands a majority and gets the reins out of Boris's and Cummings' hands.

Thanks for that explanation.
However, what you say is all well and good but.........we have no guarantee that whatever the interim government came up with, that the EU would accept it.
We also don’t know whether we would be allowed a further extension.
Genuinely, what happens then?

If the Temporary Government managed to get the reins before 31st Oct and then requested an extension for the specific reason of having a General Election and/or a second referendum - which are both specific events that can change the political nature of the UK, then I think the EU would allow an extension. The problem we have at the moment is that we'd be asking for an extension 'just because' and not for any quantifiable reason.

[Filo]

Yeah but I asked what happens if the EU won’t give another extension.

If Boris asks for the extension, he's complied with the Benn Act, Parliament cant force the EU to give one. If MPs want to stop No Deal in those circumstances they'll have to do something else. It'd probably force them to bang their heads together and work something out so they can introduce a VONC with the certainty of there being a replacement (albeit temporary) Government that commands a majority and gets the reins out of Boris's and Cummings' hands.

Thanks for that explanation.
However, what you say is all well and good but.........we have no guarantee that whatever the interim government came up with, that the EU would accept it.
We also don’t know whether we would be allowed a further extension.
Genuinely, what happens then?

If the Temporary Government managed to get the reins before 1st Oct and then requested an extension for the specific reason of having a General Election and/or a second referendum - which are both specific events that can change the political nature of the UK, then I think the EU would allow an extension. The problem we have at the moment is that we'd be asking for an extension 'just because' and not for any quantifiable reason.

1st October has been and gone I’m afraid

[Glyn_Wigley]

Well spotted. Give that man a coconut!

[Not Now Kato]

It is most unlikely that the EU will not agree to an extension as they won't want to be seen to be the ones responsible for forcing us into a No Deal situation - they won't want to be 'blamed'.
 
They may, however, impose certain conditions, (to be defined by them), on that extension which we would either have to agree to or be seen to be the ones forcing No Deal through.  And, whilst the latter would certainly cause great hardship to the majority of people in the UK it would make the Tories unelectable or some considerable time to come as they were the ones who forced No Deal through - which I suspect they wouldn't want to happen even if it made a few of their rich cronies even richer.
 
I think it's possible that an extension will be granted, followed by a vote of no confidence in the current government, followed by an interim government which would renegotiate part of the Withdrawal Agreement around remaining in either the Customs Union or the Single Market, (certainly the former, but possible even both).  This would satisfy the EU, solve the NI border problem and would be a way of taking us out of the parts of the EU we don't appear to like.
 
Just my opinion, and I'm certain that whilst it would satisfy a number of leavers it certainly wouldn't satisfy them all.
 

[i_ateallthepies]

I agree NNK and I think, given what has happened in the three years since the referendum it would take the wind out of the Farage sails for a generation at the very least.  Other than the fascists on the right of our politics I can't see anybody wanting a replay of that.

[Glyn_Wigley]

An interim Govenment wouldn't negotiate anything, they wouldn't be around long enough for that. It'd be down to whoever was the Government after a General Election.

[wilts rover]

Whilst there are not the numbers in Parliament to leave with No Deal there also are not the numbers in the opposition parties to negotiate a deal. The LD's and Change UK will never vote for deal.

I also think it would be touch and go for a 'unity' government to get a referendum through. The Tories & DUP will never vote for one so it would only need a small number of Labour leave MP's to abstain for that to fail.

[SydneyRover]

''This cowardly speech reveals Boris Johnson’s armoury is empty''

''Boris Johnson’s speech to the Conservative party conference was of a piece with his brief and tawdry prime ministership so far. The speech was a scam, an attempt to pretend that inconvenient realities can be wished out of existence by putting on a crowd-pleasing act. Yet these inconvenient realities include such things as the law of the land, the elected parliament, the European Union and the island of Ireland. Between them, these realities have enough clout to foil him''

Martin Kettle tells it how it is.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/02/boris-johnsons-speech-of-coward-conservative-conference

Come all ye brexiters, tell us this is the way to the promised land

[BillyStubbsTears]

Just spent 5 mins listening to Johnson going on about his NI border plans.

It's utter batshit. It's like the last 2 years never happened.

He's saying the UK including NI will leave the CU, but there'll be no need for any checks of stuff going across the border.

Name ANY border between two different regulatory authorities, anywhere in the world, where there are no checks.

Cut through the waffle and basically what he's saying is that we want a deal that the EU told us 2 years ago wasn't acceptable - the situation that led to the backstop.

We look like either idiots or charlatans to the rest of Europe.