Brexit deal

[selby]

  The bank sector like the notion, as do the French and German industrialists by the looks of it, and as you know Kato they are the ones that really count. If it is a deal to be put before Parliament, a lot of remain MP's are about to be put in an awkward position.
  After all the big call has been for certainty by the industrialists, and the risk to the remainers will be  the deal, or them voting it down and the risk of  a hard Brexit becoming a reality, as I think the EU want it over with, and pressure to accept will come from their side as well as our electorate.
  Of course this is if the signs are right, and an agreed deal is in the offing, if not here we go again.

[wilts rover]

According to reports it wont be the remain MP's who are worried it will be the ERG & DUP. Any deal will be nothing but May's (original) one they have previously rejected, put back to them on different coloured paper.

Paging Mr Farage, Boris Johnson's Surrender Act incoming...

[Glyn_Wigley]

According to reports it wont be the remain MP's who are worried it will be the ERG & DUP. Any deal will be nothing but May's (original) one they have previously rejected, put back to them on different coloured paper.

Paging Mr Farage, Boris Johnson's Surrender Act incoming...

Presumably why Boris was desperate for a new session of Parliament, so he could put it in front of them yet again using the creaky old political trick of giving something a new name and pretending it's brand new.

[Donnywolf]

Ive just seen that git (better keep it clean) Baker .... saying I will vote for the proposed deal if as I seem to be hearing it. It will be tolerable TOLERABLE ?

I cant believe what I heard. If its a tolerable deal I will vote for it. It might be tolerab;e to him but what about the millions of people for whom it is not and will not be anywhere near tolerable

I include Leavers of course who voted for various things like the proposed tightening up of immigration which wont be what they wanted - and Remainers who of course did not want to leave

The 2 bit low down self centred selfish git. NEVER have I ever wanted to say what I really think more than now.

[Not Now Kato]

  The bank sector like the notion, as do the French and German industrialists by the looks of it, and as you know Kato they are the ones that really count. If it is a deal to be put before Parliament, a lot of remain MP's are about to be put in an awkward position.
  After all the big call has been for certainty by the industrialists, and the risk to the remainers will be  the deal, or them voting it down and the risk of  a hard Brexit becoming a reality, as I think the EU want it over with, and pressure to accept will come from their side as well as our electorate.
  Of course this is if the signs are right, and an agreed deal is in the offing, if not here we go again.

SMMT don't like the thought of a Hard Brexit at all, preparing for it has already cost the UK motor industry a fortune....
 
https://www.smmt.co.uk/2019/10/uk-auto-gives-reality-check-on-no-deal-brexit-as-new-survey-shows-one-in-three-firms-already-shedding-jobs/

oh, and jobs are ALREADY being lost!
 
Where, oh where, are all the Unicorns and sunlit uplands you were promised?

[SydneyRover]

It doesn't matter what sort of deal blowjob gets or doesn't get there will be no deal possible as good as the one we have now.

And still no one can tell us what improvements there will be with brexit, it's like trading in your two year old bentley and the salesman says OK give me motor and gives you the bus fare home.

[selby]

  The motor industry as we know it is dying and it will not be in just this country. The dash to EV's is being pushed two quickly, the governments have  vilified diesel and petrol cars and the infrastructure and way of taxing electric cars ( no doubt by the mile when introduced) is some way down the road.
   Add to which automation will take over, and poorer countries will vye for the new factories to build the vehicles which could work out more economical to build than alter the old factories, I would not count on a long career in the industry in the UK whatever happens to Brexit.
 It is nothing new the coal, much of the steel, docks, fishing, textile, coal fired electricity generation etc. have disappeared without much sympathy by the wider public, and all industries that employed probably more people.
 As a town Doncaster has lost International Harvesters (Case), ICI, most of Crompton Parkinsons and British Ropes, the whole of the mining industry,Burtons the tailors, Cementation, Most of the rail industry, Pilkingtons glass works, plus all the smaller companies that serviced  those companies such as Mining Supplies and Mudds etc. all while being a member of the Common Market or the EU.
  Some of those companies moving within the common market EU with grants to set up in other member countries such as Poland.
  Employment in the Doncaster area, as far as skilled well paid jobs are concerned has not a lot to thank the EU for.

[Donnywolf]

I hope BST has not jumped ship - need him to keep you in order lol (missing him already)

[selby]

I don't mess with him Wolfie, he is too clever for me. And I don't have time to read everything he posts as an answer.

[wilts rover]

I really must give credit to Brexiteers who for three years now have managed to hoodwink the British public by suggesting that the political decision of successive Tory and Labour governments to abandon manufacturing and instead make the economy dependent on financial services based exclusively in the south-east was down to the EU.

Germany, France, Italy they have all kept a manufacturing base, they are all in the EU. In fact those three governments state rail companies own more British rail infrastructure and make more profit from British public than our government does. Entirely down to Tory government policies.

If there is one con trick that sums the whole project up that is it. I can recommend Robert Peston's book 'WTF' for details.

[SydneyRover]

''The motor industry as we know it is dying and it will not be in just this country. The dash to EV's is being pushed two quickly, the governments have  vilified diesel and petrol cars and the infrastructure and way of taxing electric cars ( no doubt by the mile when introduced) is some way down the road''

Industry will always move factories to where it can manufacture at less cost, it's how it works when profits are required.

Diesel engines are a source of fine particle matter that is extremely dangerous to health there is no safe level of pm2.5.

Volkswagen and possibly other manufacturers have shit in their own nests by corruption and endangered the lives of millions of people.

Electric vehicles are the future and what could be fairer than paying for usage by a tax per mile? use the car less pay less ..................

Brexit will amplify all the bad things about our economy and make it more costly to operate just about everything.

Doncaster would have lost all of those industries you mention brexit or no brexit but what the EU does and has done is help regional areas of Britain including Doncaster with it's development funding, something our own london centric governments finds difficult if not impossible to do.

A better government would have used the billions made from the oil industry to set up new industries to replace those old manufacturing plants instead of spaffing it all over their supporters in the form of tax cuts, I take it Selby you didn't get any of those cuts from your previous post?

[selby]

  looks like a five week extension that negates the Ben act is in the offing. The opposition parties are said to be furious and is pushing us closer to a general election the PM wants. That is according to the news flash on the radio, if a deal is not agreed today.

[IDM]

The only newsworthy things I can see about any “new” real is the NI thing.  What else has changed from May’s deal.?

If there is a shorter extension I would assume parliament would pass Benn Act 2, to prevent no deal again..

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

The deal isnt clear so we dont know.  Clearly the DUP need to be on board given the opposition will never vote for a deal.

A short extension seems sensible but it does feel like being so close to agreement the Benn act doesnt help.  Of course the eu can just say we will see on that if they do want the deal done.

[BillyStubbsTears]

It's perfectly clear that any deal has to involve NI staying in the CU. There's no question about that.

If a deal emerges, that fact will be fudged over by some waffle.

The ERG screamed that May's deal which required NI to stay in the CU was a betrayal and Johnson was regularly calling it anti-democratic as recently as a month ago.

If that lot now trumpet this as a deal they can accept, there is no reason why they should have voted against May's deal. That would just seal the point I've been making for 2 years. This was never about Brexit. Its about the Far Right taking over the Tory Party.

You'll have been duped lads. Difficult to admit, I know, but that's what's happened.

[Glyn_Wigley]

As I said, give it a different name and pretend it's something new. Oldest political trick in the book.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

It's perfectly clear that any deal has to involve NI staying in the CU. There's no question about that.

If a deal emerges, that fact will be fudged over by some waffle.

The ERG screamed that May's deal which required NI to stay in the CU was a betrayal and Johnson was regularly calling it anti-democratic as recently as a month ago.

If that lot now trumpet this as a deal they can accept, there is no reason why they should have voted against May's deal. That would just seal the point I've been making for 2 years. This was never about Brexit. Its about the Far Right taking over the Tory Party.

You'll have been duped lads. Difficult to admit, I know, but that's what's happened.

I'll probably get slaughtered for this, but I'm not really fussed how it ends up for NI.  However, I do tend to think it right for the people that live there that the politicians on all side have a say as peace there is actually important for us all even if the economics are less so.  The DUP of course should be careful as if it all goes wrong and BJ gets either a majority post election or there is no deal ever there say is gone, it may well never get better for them.

It does though seem like they are going for a fairly similar deal with some changes, now the devil will be in the detail.  I hope it's a sensible deal and one that gets done so we can all move on.

Boris will be happy this afternoon if the latest Yougov opinion poll verifies, miles and miles ahead.

[Not Now Kato]

Golden Uplands eh?
 
Two quotes from Andrea Leadsom....
 
Jan 2017 - "Now, as we prepare to leave the EU, I will be looking at scrapping the rules that hold us back and focusing instead on what works best for the UK"

Oct 2019 - "If you often travel to the EU for business you will need to check if you need a visa or a work permit" "If you sell goods in the UK you may need to start using a new UK product marking after Brexit", "If you are new to trading, or aren't VAT registered you need to apply for an EORI number to continue doing business after Brexit", "If your business receives personal information from the EU, your business will have to change how it does this after Brexit", "If your business sells manufactured goods on the EU market you will need to follow new processes after Brexit".
 
And leavers still won't admit they were conned!  What on earth will it take?

[SydneyRover]

Sorry bfyp, how can any form of brexit deal be called sensible? this bunch of self centred maniacs has put the country through 3 years of hell we've lost over 100bn with more huge losses to come, the only honest name that could be put on brexit is 'insane'

[bpoolrover]

Both sides have to take equal blame Sydney the remain mps have tried block it at every attempt,I’m not saying we had much bargaining power but they made sure we had none

[Donnywolf]

I still hang my head in despair at what is the biggest single political mess I have lived through WHICHEVER way you personally have voted.

I still hate people saying as Ian Duncan Smith did this morning " people write to me and talk to me and stop me on the street and just say - "lets just get this done" we have had a vote and we want it finished NOW"

I suspect he knows (or suspects that if a second Referendum turns up) the likely outcome to "finish it" would end in a Remain vote. The latest Poll of Polls shows Remain if offered would come out somewhere like 54 - 46 and thats why that abysmal bloke ......Baker MP just wants a "tolerable" deal that he and others can vote for rather than lose the prize they have worked , schemed and subverted the last Referendums result for

What a selfish git he and others like him are. Throw us to the Wolves so he / they can cheer their own greatness

[Metalmicky]

Throw us to the Wolves so he / they can cheer their own greatness

Thought you would be alright with the other wolves....

[Donnywolf]

Yeah - they are ok - and they were just glad to get back into Europe !

[scawsby steve]

It's perfectly clear that any deal has to involve NI staying in the CU. There's no question about that.

If a deal emerges, that fact will be fudged over by some waffle.

The ERG screamed that May's deal which required NI to stay in the CU was a betrayal and Johnson was regularly calling it anti-democratic as recently as a month ago.

If that lot now trumpet this as a deal they can accept, there is no reason why they should have voted against May's deal. That would just seal the point I've been making for 2 years. This was never about Brexit. Its about the Far Right taking over the Tory Party.

You'll have been duped lads. Difficult to admit, I know, but that's what's happened.

I see you've decided to stay with us. Well done mate, this place wouldn't be the same without you.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Thanks SS.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

I still hang my head in despair at what is the biggest single political mess I have lived through WHICHEVER way you personally have voted.

I still hate people saying as Ian Duncan Smith did this morning " people write to me and talk to me and stop me on the street and just say - "lets just get this done" we have had a vote and we want it finished NOW"

I suspect he knows (or suspects that if a second Referendum turns up) the likely outcome to "finish it" would end in a Remain vote. The latest Poll of Polls shows Remain if offered would come out somewhere like 54 - 46 and thats why that abysmal bloke ......Baker MP just wants a "tolerable" deal that he and others can vote for rather than lose the prize they have worked , schemed and subverted the last Referendums result for

What a selfish git he and others like him are. Throw us to the Wolves so he / they can cheer their own greatness

I'm not so sure the polls at all show that.  The biggest was a Comres poll published this morning of 26000 people (big for a poll) which did not at all show that (42% for remain, 50% leave (out of 2 options), 8% don't knows.  But it is just one poll.

[Bentley Bullet]

It's perfectly clear that any deal has to involve NI staying in the CU. There's no question about that.

If a deal emerges, that fact will be fudged over by some waffle.

The ERG screamed that May's deal which required NI to stay in the CU was a betrayal and Johnson was regularly calling it anti-democratic as recently as a month ago.

If that lot now trumpet this as a deal they can accept, there is no reason why they should have voted against May's deal. That would just seal the point I've been making for 2 years. This was never about Brexit. Its about the Far Right taking over the Tory Party.

You'll have been duped lads. Difficult to admit, I know, but that's what's happened.

I see you've decided to stay with us. Well done mate, this place wouldn't be the same without you.

His handful of supporters would certainly struggle with a missing digit, even more so with him being the thumb!

It would have been difficult for them to carry on minus a finger, never mind the pollex.

[SydneyRover]

You seem to be consumed by the green eyed god bb, time to grow up

[Bentley Bullet]

Time you got yer'sen a sense of humour, Pinky.

[Donnywolf]

I still hang my head in despair at what is the biggest single political mess I have lived through WHICHEVER way you personally have voted.

I still hate people saying as Ian Duncan Smith did this morning " people write to me and talk to me and stop me on the street and just say - "lets just get this done" we have had a vote and we want it finished NOW"

I suspect he knows (or suspects that if a second Referendum turns up) the likely outcome to "finish it" would end in a Remain vote. The latest Poll of Polls shows Remain if offered would come out somewhere like 54 - 46 and thats why that abysmal bloke ......Baker MP just wants a "tolerable" deal that he and others can vote for rather than lose the prize they have worked , schemed and subverted the last Referendums result for

What a selfish git he and others like him are. Throw us to the Wolves so he / they can cheer their own greatness

I'm not so sure the polls at all show that.  The biggest was a Comres poll published this morning of 26000 people (big for a poll) which did not at all show that (42% for remain, 50% leave (out of 2 options), 8% don't knows.  But it is just one poll.

I have seen (couldnt be bothered to read) this really long piece by Prof Curtice - the bloke they have on for every election these days

This was the bit I focussed on (after he talked about it on TV this morning) :



True, as has been the position ever since our poll of polls series began at the beginning of 2018, the balance of support is now tilted in favour of Remain rather than, as in the referendum, in favour of Leave.  Indeed, the current average of Remain 52%, Leave 48% is the exact mirror image of what emerged from the ballot boxes in June 2016.

However, this does not mean that there is a discernible, key group of Leave voters who have changed their minds about Brexit. That much becomes clear if, as in the table below, we examine separately the current vote intentions of those who voted Remain in 2016 and those who backed Leave. In both cases over 85% say they would vote exactly the same way as they did in 2016. The sound and fury of the last three years has left the vast majority of voters unmoved. And although 8% of those who backed Leave say that they would now vote Remain, they are counterbalanced by 8% of Remain supporters who indicate that they would now support Leave.

The principal reason why public opinion is now tilted towards Remain is because, as we have noted before, those who did not vote three years ago prefer Remain to Leave by around two to one (if they express a view at all). In part, at least, this reflects the fact that this group of abstainers consists disproportionately of younger voters who in general are more likely to back Remain. However, it also suggests that, far from being certain to produce a majority for Remain, the outcome of a second referendum could turn on the ability or otherwise of the Remain side to mobilise the support of a group of voters who cannot necessarily be relied upon to vote at all

... and if you or anybody else has too much time on their hands it comes from this monster article.

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/author/johncurtice/