Brexit deal

[BillyStubbsTears]

There will not be a No Deal outcome.

Full stop.

If Parliament votes down the deal on Saturday, Johnson MUST apply for an extension and the EU will grant it.

Full stop.

In the vanishingly small probability case that the EU didn't grant it, there would be time for Parliament to vote to cancel A50. That would be a very bad situation, and a bad thing to do, but infinitely better than No Deal and Parliament would vote to revoke A50.
Then we would really be in a shocking place socially.  But at least we'd still have food in the shops.

[SydneyRover]

I didn't think that was possible bst?

''On 29 March 2017, the EU Commission stated "It is up to the United Kingdom to trigger Article 50. But once triggered, it cannot be unilaterally reversed. Notification is a point of no return. Article 50 does not provide for the unilateral withdrawal of notification''

[wilts rover]

I'd consider it. Any deal is better than no deal.

You are Boris Johnson and I claim my used kipper/pork pie/bit of everest that collapsed in 2014....

Anyone with half a brain knows stopping everything including medicine from one moment is suicide for a country. Anything where we carrying on receiving goods and the services which were used to is the same option. There is no reason for Brexit, no positive but I'm fine with it to happen as long as we get a deal just to make the ridiculous 52% of the voters happy.

That's his plan. Without the DUP he needs 20-30 Tory Remain & Labour Leave MP's to think the same way as you do to get his deal passed by ignoring the consequences of it.

No deal won't happen. It wouldn't happen last week, it wont happen on 31st October and it wont happen on Saturday. The only way it will happen is if Farage wins the next election and you can judge the likelihood of that yourself.

I reckon it will be close. I see the ERG are beginning to abandon the DUP they said they would never abandon as long ago as yesterday.

[DonnyOsmond]

I didn't think that was possible bst?

''On 29 March 2017, the EU Commission stated "It is up to the United Kingdom to trigger Article 50. But once triggered, it cannot be unilaterally reversed. Notification is a point of no return. Article 50 does not provide for the unilateral withdrawal of notification''

It went to court and we can revoke it.

[BillyStubbsTears]

This is shocking reporting from the BBC.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50086218

Most people only read the first few Iines of a news article. This reads like a celebration of Johnson's deal.

And then it says "However, he had to cede some ground." .

Which, in the real world, translates as "However, he had to renege on every red line he's drawn over the past two years, and betray the DUP with an arrangement that only 4 months ago he said would never be acceptable to a Tory PM."

Awful, awful reporting.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wilts.

Apparently the Tory Chief Whip has calculated that, if the DUP voted for the deal, every Tory-whipped MP votes for it and the Lab and Independent MPs they think will lean that way vote for it, they will win by 1 vote.

If the DUP opposes the deal (and how can they not?) it's lost.

[SydneyRover]

I didn't think that was possible bst?

''On 29 March 2017, the EU Commission stated "It is up to the United Kingdom to trigger Article 50. But once triggered, it cannot be unilaterally reversed. Notification is a point of no return. Article 50 does not provide for the unilateral withdrawal of notification''

It went to court and we can revoke it.

Thanks DO, I missed that bit obviously

[wilts rover]

Wilts.

Apparently the Tory Chief Whip has calculated that, if the DUP voted for the deal, every Tory-whipped MP votes for it and the Lab and Independent MPs they think will lean that way vote for it, they will win by 1 vote.

If the DUP opposes the deal (and how can they not?) it's lost.

This bloke reckons it will be a tie!

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK

This is his spreadsheet. I reckon he has overestimated the Labour MP's voting for it - and Rory Stewart might struggle in the campaign for London Mayor if he does.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ktqCioirDDTRnnWd-1WHuA-7mvjuA5C3rTTrYpZ7mkA/edit#gid=58425768

[albie]

I would think that any Labour MP voting for the Johnson deal, and setting aside environmental protection and workers rights, has no future in the party.

Some are leaving anyway, like Hoey and Mann, but people like Flint and Kinnock need to think very carefully.

[selby]

  Albie, Labour or any other elected party could always win a general election, and as we would not be a member of the EU they could bring in any workers rights laws, or any other laws they wanted to as the elected government of an independent self governing  country.
  They probably wouldn't though, and they are not even making that point to the electorate that they could, because it doesn't fit with their agenda.
 That is the trouble people are not thinking what they could do, and are too used to other people doing the hard miles for them. If we stay in nobody is telling people that the agreement that Thatcher negotiated on our payments finishes in 2021 and our payments will go up over 50% if all 27 countries don't agree to extend the existing agreement, the likely hood of that being zilch, making the amount on the side of the bus even larger.
  The one thing the remain side have done is negate any benefits of getting out by continually stating the negatives, there are negatives to staying in that need highlighting, and could cost more than getting out, and the bill will be presented sooner than people think if we do stay in.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Wilts.

Apparently the Tory Chief Whip has calculated that, if the DUP voted for the deal, every Tory-whipped MP votes for it and the Lab and Independent MPs they think will lean that way vote for it, they will win by 1 vote.

If the DUP opposes the deal (and how can they not?) it's lost.

This bloke reckons it will be a tie!

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK

This is his spreadsheet. I reckon he has overestimated the Labour MP's voting for it - and Rory Stewart might struggle in the campaign for London Mayor if he does.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ktqCioirDDTRnnWd-1WHuA-7mvjuA5C3rTTrYpZ7mkA/edit#gid=58425768

That could mean that breaking the deadlock might be Bercow's last action as Speaker!

[albie]

Selby,

The point I was making is that current protections will be lost.

The Labour Party has spent years working towards basic protections at work, and environmental standards.
Removing these and making them subject to a government working on 5 year time lines is the WORST thing you could possibly do.

It gives no continuity for long term planning, and makes alignment with international standards (advantageous for trade deal negotiations) much more complicated.

There is no upside, unless you think contracting out to US corporations is the way to go.
That is the Johnson plan, and it is not in the interests of the working people of the UK.

[SydneyRover]

Selby: '' The one thing the remain side have done is negate any benefits of getting out by continually stating the negatives, there are negatives to staying in that need highlighting, and could cost more than getting out, and the bill will be presented sooner than people think if we do stay in''

Respectfully I think you're a little confused Selby, the remain side have been begging all those on this forum to tell us what the benefits of leaving are which apart from HA's proposal to nationalise the railways (to which I agree) there has been little else forthcoming.

Without further ado, please tell us what the benefits are, balanced against the massive benefits of staying in of course.

[selby]

  If they agree to an election, and were elected, they would be in power before the transition period ends, and could introduce any law they wanted to before the end of that period in which we have agreed to uphold EU standards.
  The problem is Labour are running scared of an election, and at the moment are all wind and no substance, with a leader that is unelectable, and a north south divide that will end the party as we know it.

[selby]

 I have just told you, any elected government could introduce any legislation they wanted to, be it employment law, or anything. They could introduce a proper living wage to be paid to any worker, they could outlaw zero hour contracts, anything they wanted, the only people they would be responsible to would be the electorate.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Selby

As people keep on pointing out to you, things like environmental and product and workers' rights regulations are not the sorts of things you change on the whim of whoever is in power, then change back in 5 years time when the other lot get in. That would be a disaster for business planning.

Who is going to invest in factories that make Widget A, based on the standards of today if those standards are liable to change drastically in 5 years time? Widget A might be illegal if the regulations are hardened. Or might be half the price to produce in a sweatshop if regulations are relaxed.

That's why you take a decades long approach to changing them. And you set minimum standards applicable across a wide range of economies so you don't get a race to the bottom.

Your attitude to this issue is, frankly, indicative of the entire Brexiters approach. Massively simplify. Don't engage with detail. Assume anyone who does is acting in bad faith.

If I could, I'd let you lot HAVE Brexit and deal with the shit it will unleash. If I could insulate the folk who don't deserve to be hurt by it, I'd wave you off gladly into the Brexit future. You deserve it.

[selby]

 Billy, are you telling me that the party you support are incapable of governing well enough to be re-elected, or that they are incapable of making this country a better place to live in.
 Oh I forgot, last week most of you were saying we can't get a deal.

[wilts rover]

No selby. You are telling us the party you support are going to rip up as many worker's rights and environmental protections as they can get away with and you don't care.

BTW last week we couldn't get a deal. Johnson caved in and gave the EU everything they asked for, that's why there's a deal.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Selby.

Here's a good life tip. Read what people actually say instead of what you want them to say.

[selby]

  Billy, I don't want labour to get in for ten years thinking about it, look what they caused last time, there was nothing left.

[BillyStubbsTears]

More genius reporting from the BBC.

"an important point of principle for Mr Johnson is that Northern Ireland will leave the EU's customs union with the rest of the UK.

"It will continue to apply EU rules on customs, tariffs and regulations under the auspices of the European Court of Justice."

It's the most transparent, mendacious political spin I've ever seen.

It's Ike saying Donny Rovers will leave the English Football League, but continue to play English Football League matches under the auspices and rules of the English Football League.

[Bentley Bullet]

Do you mean to say that the wonderful, honest, understanding, caring EU are ripping us off?

[bobjimwilly]

Do you mean to say that the wonderful, honest, understanding, caring EU are ripping us off?

It means Johnson can't even get a good a deal as May did. He's trying to totally f*ck the country up the arse with this deal and some folk on here are already touching their toes.

[Bentley Bullet]

Do you mean to say that the wonderful, honest, understanding, caring EU are ripping us off?

It means Johnson can't even get a good a deal as May did. He's trying to totally f*ck the country up the arse with this deal and some folk on here are already touching their toes.

But surely the wonderful, honest, understanding, caring EU wouldn't want to rip us off?

[wilts rover]

Do you mean to say that the wonderful, honest, understanding, caring EU are ripping us off?

It means Johnson can't even get a good a deal as May did. He's trying to totally f*ck the country up the arse with this deal and some folk on here are already touching their toes.

But surely the wonderful, honest, understanding, caring EU wouldn't want to rip us off?

According to the Brexit Party they haven't - because this deal isn't Brexit. You Leavers who wanted to respect the referendum result must be fuming?

https://twitter.com/brexitparty_uk/status/1184966623964422149

[SydneyRover]

Michael Dougan, professor of European law at University of Liverpool, has this interesting Twitter thread breaking down Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal, the majority of which “remains identical to that finalised by Theresa May”. It’s worth a read.

    Michael Dougan (@mdouganlpool)

    1) vast majority of Withdrawal Agreement remains identical to that finalised by Theresa May – the one that was repeatedly denounced by so many Brexiters (vassal state, money down drain etc) & justifiably criticised by sane commentators (esp flawed citizens’ rights regime)
    October 17, 2019

    Michael Dougan (@mdouganlpool)

    3) How? NI will remain subject to large swathes of EU legislation on customs, VAT, goods, energy, state aid etc; on dynamic basis / in accordance with ECJ caselaw. Many of the rules will be enforced by UK bodies, but EU will also exercise various powers / roles in respect of NI.
    October 17, 2019

    Michael Dougan (@mdouganlpool)

    5) After all: requires nightmarish system for determining / administering which goods pay EU / UK / no customs duties. Effectively based on presumption that EU duties should apply unless & until proved otherwise – followed by burdensome system of refunds by UK authorities.
    October 17, 2019

    Michael Dougan (@mdouganlpool)

    7) … unless NI institutions later decide that "backstop" regime should be terminated. But DUP can’t veto extension of Protocol into the future: boohoo. Instead, on rolling basis: cross-community support = 8 year prolongation; though simple majority = still 4 year continuation
    October 17, 2019

    Michael Dougan (@mdouganlpool)

    9) Last/not least: revised Political Declaration remains much same but with few tweaks intended to increase future distance between EU/UK. Of course, they don’t matter very much: document isn’t binding; might never be agreement; might take many years; might look very different.
    October 17, 2019

    Michael Dougan (@mdouganlpool)

    11) Conclusion? EU has strong interest in promoting this agreement as way to avoid chaotic withdrawal. Fair enough: within its prerogative / in its interests. But for UK: this "new deal" also lays ground for Johnson & Co to plough ahead with their damaging and dangerous Brexit.
    October 17, 2019

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/oct/18/boris-johnson-launches-frantic-sales-pitch-of-brexit-deal-ahead-of-commons-vote-politics-live

[SydneyRover]

DUP confirms it will vote against deal (7.28am)

The DUP will “absolutely” be voting against the deal when it comes to the House of Commons, the party’s Brexit spokesman, Sammy Wilson, has said, contradicting a suggestion earlier from Peter Bone that the unionist party might be willing to support it.

“Why would we when this deal goes against everything, first of all that the government promised they would do to Northern Ireland,” Wilson told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.

“A syphoning off from the rest of the United Kingdom and putting a border down the Irish Sea, in addition to extra costs for Northern Ireland’s businesses.”

Wilson added that the party would vote as a block and that there was no question of abstaining. The party had already been having conversations with Tory MPs and encouraging them to vote with the DUP “to protect the union”.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/oct/18/boris-johnson-launches-frantic-sales-pitch-of-brexit-deal-ahead-of-commons-vote-politics-live

[SydneyRover]

As johnson attempts a poor imitation of the Andy Serkis in the wetwipes vid and tries to persuade enough MPs that black is in fact white ......

Scottish Court to review bid to stop 'illegal' Brexit deal

''Scotland's highest civil court is set to consider a legal bid to stop the UK government from passing its proposed EU withdrawal agreement.

Anti-Brexit campaigners believe it contravenes legislation preventing Northern Ireland forming part of a separate customs territory.

Campaigner Jo Maugham QC confirmed the petition was lodged at the Court of Session in Edinburgh on Thursday''

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-50088993

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

It seems likely to be less than a handful of votes in it.  Interesting day ahead, there will be many MPs who are thinking about what to do, largely thinking about if I vote yes to the deal is this the end of it....

Do not forget in the long term if BJ carries his party in the vote he has a massive potential election campaign of back the deal and give me a mandate.  Whatever happens he's defeated the "he only wants no deal narrative" and he cannot possibly now push for that given it's his deal.

Sturgeon has this conspiracy theory;

Hope I’m wrong but I have a real suspicion that Labour would be quite happy to see this deal go through. They will officially oppose but give nod to ‘rebels’ to ensure numbers there to pass. It will be the end of them in Scotland if they do end up facilitating Brexit.

[DonnyOsmond]

  If they agree to an election, and were elected, they would be in power before the transition period ends, and could introduce any law they wanted to before the end of that period in which we have agreed to uphold EU standards.
  The problem is Labour are running scared of an election, and at the moment are all wind and no substance, with a leader that is unelectable, and a north south divide that will end the party as we know it.

Eh? Have you recently come out of a coma? They've said they'd agree to one as soon as Brexit was extended so we didn't fall into no deal. They're not "scared" and you just look daft saying that.