Brexit deal

[BillyStubbsTears]

It's pretty simple really, and was all entirely predictable.

Everyone of the more intellectual arguments that used to be made to support Brexit have evaporated over the past 2 years.

We're not going to be better off.
We're not going to have the rest of the world running up to us to offer us wonderful deals.
We're not going to be politically stronger.

All that's left now is a rather unpleasant echo of out of date obsessions with us being better than the dirty, cheating, feckless, idle foreigners over the Channel. There are no grander arguments than that left to underpin Brexit.

And still most Brexit folk won't consider changing their minds. Makes you wonder...

[SydneyRover]

''All that's left now is a rather unpleasant echo of out of date obsessions with us being better than the dirty, cheating, feckless, idle foreigners over the Channel.''

I was talking to a bloke a week or so back that I have met a couple of times, pleasant, congenial, who travels between countries buying and selling. Brexiter, with absolutely no logic to his argument other than that we should run our own race and we don't want Europe telling us what do, we'll be better off out, other than falsely claiming that the European trawlers are stealing our fish.

I'm thinking what you said above BST.

[SydneyRover]

''Don’t expect Brexit to give us a British Alexander Hamilton''

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/31/brexit-british-alexander-hamilton-revolutionaries


PS if you're mistakenly pissed off over thinking we are being badly treated
by the EU, you ain't seen nothing yet if we do leave.

[Sprotyrover]

''Don’t expect Brexit to give us a British Alexander Hamilton''

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/31/brexit-british-alexander-hamilton-revolutionaries


PS if you're mistakenly pissed off over thinking we are being badly treated
by the EU, you ain't seen nothing yet if we do leave.

What a load of twaddle

[idler]

Why does everybody assume that all that voted for Brexit were or racists bigots etc. or haven't changed their mind?
The aftermath has surely changed the situation drastically.
I voted leave as I didn't want to be part of a more federal Europe. The lack of anybody on the leave side to show any competence to discuss never mind agree any sort of credible deal was more than enough to change my mind.

[BillyStubbsTears]

That comment I made above about how the entire intellectual construct of the Leave argument has collapsed.

Little f**king wonder is it, when you had bell-ends like Douglas Carswell providing the philosophical underpinning for the Leave side.

Here he is telling a professor of physics that he's wrong on something that's been established since the days of Isaac f**king Newton.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/douglas-carswell-tides-ukip-experts-science-mp-a7318461.html?amp&__twitter_impression=true

[Filo]

That comment I made above about how the entire intellectual construct of the Leave argument has collapsed.

Little f**king wonder is it, when you had bell-ends like Douglas Carswell providing the philosophical underpinning for the Leave side.

Here he is telling a professor of physics that he's wrong on something that's been established since the days of Isaac f**king Newton.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/douglas-carswell-tides-ukip-experts-science-mp-a7318461.html?amp&__twitter_impression=true

Perhaps he could explain why tide times are different everday, if they ate caused by the sun, surely they would be at the same time everday if the Sun created the tides

[BillyStubbsTears]

Idler.

You are in a very small minority who is prepared to change their minds when the context of the discussion changes. You are very much to be applauded for that. That is how democracy is supposed to work.

What bewilders we is the 15 million or so of our fellow citizens who, according to opinions polls, think we will be better off or no worse off after Brexit. I can't believe they haven't seen the arguments of the past two years. How even the most ardent Leavers now admit there would be economic problems over many years. But folk just don't want to hear that. I wonder what it is that makes them so determined to ignore rational debate?

[albie]

BST,

"I wonder what it is that makes them so determined to ignore rational debate?"

The point is that many people do not engage with rational debate in the way assumed.
The success of Leave campaign (and Trump) was in telling their supporters it is OK to disregard evidence in favour of belief.

You then have a political argument based on the assertion of will versus reason. Religions (of all types) have long understood this.

The strongest bond is loyalty to a cause because it is central to your identity. It has to be defended against all challenges.

A bit like supporting a football team, through thin and thinner. Unless you are one of those chasing success, so you ditch your local side and jump on the bandwagon of whoever is in ascendance at the time.

Do you wanna be in ma gang, ma gang, ma gang.......probably not!

[BillyStubbsTears]

Albie
So what are you suggesting?

That we give up rational debate and have a policy of pushing OUR version of reality more effectively than they push THEIR version?

[BillyStubbsTears]

This business of Grayling paying ferry companies to expand capacity at ports if we stumble into the No Deal Apocalypse.

So he's given £14m to a British company that had a turnover of £35,000 and has never either owned, rented or operated a boat, to provide services from Ramsgate harbour, which is currently incapable of receiving large ferries because it needs dredging.

Turns out that's the least excruciatingly embarrassing aspect.

He's also given £100m to two real ferry companies.

Brittany Ferries. Which is French
DFDS. Which is Danish.

The terms of the contract are that they will get paid even if they never have to operate a single extra boat, because we avoid a No Deal scenario.

And we WILL avoid No Deal. Because there is an overwhelming majority in Parliament against that scenario.

 So, effectively, your Transport Secretary, the strongly pro-Leave Chris Grayling, has just given away to foreign companies, a sum of money that would pay the salaries of 3000 nurses for a year, as an insurance policy against a scenario that will never happen.

Tell you what. This Brexit lark is really showing them foreigners whose in charge, int it?

[MachoMadness]

Never mind that. That bas**rd Khan dared to use blue and yellow light bulbs in the NYE fireworks display. That's the real scandal!

[BillyStubbsTears]

MM.
I'm confused by the response of folk like Andrew Bridgen and Roger Helmer to those fireworks. I thought it was the pompous, self-righteous Remoaner snowflakes who were the ones who can't take a bit of ribbing without getting upset.

[albie]

Albie
So what are you suggesting?

That we give up rational debate and have a policy of pushing OUR version of reality more effectively than they push THEIR version?

No Billy,

What I am saying is that the way in which a different interpretation is sold is not by counter assertion, or an appeal to consider detail that is outside the world view of the target audience.

So how do you respect the fact that people voted a particular way for their own reasons, which are different to yours, while bringing some real world considerations into play?

It depends in part on how you put a question.
"Bring back control" is a powerful meme to those who feel that they have no control. The false association is concluding that the EU is the reason that they experience that powerlessness.

Those without control or belief in their future prospects will still be as vulnerable after Brexit as they were when voting.  It is precisely to exploit that weakness that the Leave campaign seeks to achieve.

Maybe one suggestion would be to commit to a root and branch reform of the electoral system, new rules governing the relationship of commercial interests to the political process. There are a whole set of potential reforms that might give those on the outside a reason to really take back control, not just hand it to the JRM,BJ crew.

Perhaps the UK should really bottom out the true reasons for discontent...........like austerity, creeping privatisation, disregard of social welfare, public sector cuts leading to lack of services, regressive taxation etc.........and come up with a plan to abolish all those worries.

It might just catch on.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Ah.

I'm getting in now Albie.

So, you're saying that when the Leave campaign came up with lines like "Take Back Control", Remainers were slipping up quite badly by responding with "I'd mark the EU at 7/10 but it's important that we have I ternational efforts on environmental issues because plastic bags dropped in the Pacific off Colombia can end up in Japan"?

I'm entirely with you comrade.

[wilts rover]

Perhaps they should have Billy. It would have made more sense than Cameron warning of a crash in house prices (to frighten owners and landlords) which had the effect of making people who couldn't afford to get on the housing ladder in their area think 'Sounds good to me, I'll have some of that'.

[albie]

One way of looking at "Take back control" is that it is a great hookline, fit to hold whatever ideas you want to throw in the basket.
The key point is that it sold the idea of change.

What the change would mean , and who would benefit long term....those were in the great never never.
If you buy into the need to ring some changes, and the message from Remain is "more of the same", all you see is repeat failure.

So the more powerful message is the one that promises change. 
The political challenge is to define that change according to values that hold meaning for voters.

Steve Bannon understood all this, and put it to good use. Helped of course by Facebook and Cambridge Analytica.

Its not just what you say, and the way you say it, but also how you tap into aspiration.
The Labour Party has been very poor at this in recent years, both Brown and Miliband being hopeless communicators.

Lets hope for better, eh!

[BillyStubbsTears]

I see you're off and running in the 2019 Whataboutery Stakes, Wilts.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Albie.

You've lost me with that bit of Campaigning Boilerplate 101. Are you now saying you can only win if you offer change?

[albie]

In the UK at the moment, off the back of austerity and all its trappings...................yes, change needs to be offered.

That does not mean that you will win, but it does increase the chance of maxing your vote.

For the record, I do not think Labour is likely to win an overall majority in a GE. 
The realistic target is to become the largest party, with the option of forming a government with SNP support.

Some in the Labour Party have not done the numbers.........numeracy matters, at least to get to the goal of electoral reform.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I entirely agree that change from Austerity is necessary.

That's a totally different subject from what we were discussing though.

[albie]

No BST,

It is another angle on the same subject. Brexit votes can only be seen in the context of austerity IMO.

Do you think that the Brexit debate would have panned out in the same way if it had taken place in 2006, before the economy had to be rescued from predatory banksters?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Albie

You are preaching to the converted. Back in 2010 in this very place, I was predicting what the consequence was going to be of Clegg empowering Austerity.

But we are where we are now.

Those of the Left who want to airbrush over Brexit because everything will be alright once Corbyn is elected are dangerously deluded for any number of reasons - only one of which is that we may get Brexit and STILL have a right wing Govt which will define the post-Brexit Britain.

So how about we get back to the subject at hand, rather than divert off into tangential subjects?

[SydneyRover]

''Don’t expect Brexit to give us a British Alexander Hamilton''

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/31/brexit-british-alexander-hamilton-revolutionaries


PS if you're mistakenly pissed off over thinking we are being badly treated
by the EU, you ain't seen nothing yet if we do leave.

What a load of twaddle

The point I'm trying to make here, well or not is that if anyone is thinking we will be in a better bargaining position with the EU following any type of brexit is going to sadly disappointed, happy for you to explain how this will not be true Wilts.

[BillyStubbsTears]

This Brexit thing eh?

The masses rebelling against the Elite.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Sathnam/status/1080399650342006784

[turnbull for england]

At least you can get a pizza on board... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46748193

[BillyStubbsTears]

Jesus wept.

Too daft to laugh at on The Thick Of It.

[Axholme Lion]

The EU will bottle it at the last minute when they see thirty nine big ones going down the tubes.

[wilts rover]

''Don’t expect Brexit to give us a British Alexander Hamilton''

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/31/brexit-british-alexander-hamilton-revolutionaries


PS if you're mistakenly pissed off over thinking we are being badly treated
by the EU, you ain't seen nothing yet if we do leave.

What a load of twaddle

The point I'm trying to make here, well or not is that if anyone is thinking we will be in a better bargaining position with the EU following any type of brexit is going to sadly disappointed, happy for you to explain how this will not be true Wilts.

Well I could have a go Sydney but I would only be playing devil's advocate as I think you are replying to a post by Sproty?

[wilts rover]

The EU will bottle it at the last minute when they see thirty nine big ones going down the tubes.

Sorry I don't understand, what is the 'it' the EU are going to bottle? They have already agreed and signed off their deal with Mrs May - it's our government who can't agree with that deal nor can it agree what deal it does or doesn't want.