Brexit deal

[BillyStubbsTears]

One thing is for certain tonight. We're not leaving the EU on 29 March.

[drfchound]

We have to go to the EU and delay article 50.. no deal cannot happen, and cancelling article 50 and dropping brexit without a peoples vote goes against the original outcome..

Then whoever is in government has more time to sort this mess out..

Or better, IMHO, cancel brexit which we can do unilaterally and then do what we should have done before, get an exit strategy agreeable to parliament and the EU and then offer that choice to the electorate.

BST said at the top of this page what I have been saying since June 2016, the leave option was never clarified - surely folks could see that leaving the EU was never going to be as simple as jut leaving, period.??

“Surely folks could see that leaving the EU was never going to be as simple as just leaving”

...........and yet the leave vote won.

Says lots about the electorate.

[BessieBlue]

Probably the best thing they can do now is adopt a cross party approach to Brexit - which is what they should have done in the first place.
The referendum wasn't split between traditional party lines and neither should the negotiation with Europe. Round these parts there was a big majority voted leave in the referendum yet Doncaster is a Labour stronghold. You then end up with a Tory government negotiating on behalf of what must be many Labour voters - this seems a recipe for disaster. In effect you get the extreme right wing of the Tory party trying to drive the Brexit negotiations along their lines which must seem very unfair to labour bods. There are all sorts of groups trying to make political capital out of the situation and this tends to mask the real Brexit stuff.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Would Corbyn have called the no confidence vote if he didn't think he had the votes?

He has no choice, she basically called him out and he can't carry on saying he's going to do it and then not.

Many reckon she will win it.  A big loss but again you listen to her and she impresses in her speeches tonight.  Why can't she be like that all the time?

He big thing is May wins tomorrow then what?  I cannot see the Tories going against her really but you never know....

When the No Confidence motion loses and there's therefore no chance of a General Election, Corbyn can then move the Labour Party on to supporting a second referendum to unblock Parliament. That's the only tangible result I can see, unless May somehow manages to lose this too!

[wilts rover]

In case people have missed it

that was the biggest commons defeat EVER and the first time in history more than 400 Mp's have voted against a government motion (although it was a much smaller parliament before 1900)

[Glyn_Wigley]

We have to go to the EU and delay article 50.. no deal cannot happen, and cancelling article 50 and dropping brexit without a peoples vote goes against the original outcome..

Then whoever is in government has more time to sort this mess out..

Or better, IMHO, cancel brexit which we can do unilaterally and then do what we should have done before, get an exit strategy agreeable to parliament and the EU and then offer that choice to the electorate.

BST said at the top of this page what I have been saying since June 2016, the leave option was never clarified - surely folks could see that leaving the EU was never going to be as simple as jut leaving, period.??

“Surely folks could see that leaving the EU was never going to be as simple as just leaving”

...........and yet the leave vote won.

Says lots about the electorate.

As does all the vox pops there's been on Radio 5 all day with wally after wally parroting 'just walk away' as if that's all there is to it.

[Donnywolf]

2nd 3rd 4th we will vote till we get what we want.

We got what we wanted in 1976 - Country voted Remain

Majority was 33%        Result (approx) 66  to Remain     33 to Leave   = Maj 33%

Never respected by Tories (I agree times have changed)

We voted in 2016

Majority was 3 % (approx)  Votes to Leave 52 %     Votes to Remain 49%   = Maj 3 %

So that was Vote One in 76 and produced 10 times more of a Majority than 2016 to actually STAY so perhaps we just need another so it will be best of 3 !

*** Oh and away Polls count double !

[Glyn_Wigley]

In case people have missed it

that was the biggest commons defeat EVER and the first time in history more than 400 Mp's have voted against a government motion (although it was a much smaller parliament before 1900)

Erm...between 1884 to the end of World War One there were 670 MPs. Twenty more than there is now. Then from 1918 to 1922 there were 707.

[Donnywolf]

Would Corbyn have called the no confidence vote if he didn't think he had the votes?

He has no choice, she basically called him out and he can't carry on saying he's going to do it and then not.

Many reckon she will win it.  A big loss but again you listen to her and she impresses in her speeches tonight.  Why can't she be like that all the time?

He big thing is May wins tomorrow then what?  I cannot see the Tories going against her really but you never know....

When the No Confidence motion loses and there's therefore no chance of a General Election, Corbyn can then move the Labour Party on to supporting a second referendum to unblock Parliament. That's the only tangible result I can see, unless May somehow manages to lose this too!

She will win the No Confidence vote because the DUP will support her - BUT where the hell do we go after that

Cheers Cameron - Clown of the highest order.

[Glyn_Wigley]

After tomorrow's sideshow, May has only got two days to come up with something else to put in front of Parliament that's different to the deal that's been voted down. That's the next important milestone, not tomorrow's vote.

[tommy toes]

After tonight's vote the EU seem to be saying the door is closed there is nothing to discuss.
If this really is their position then there is nowhere to go except No Deal or a second referendum.
There aren't any other options and if No Deal isn't an option then.....

[BillyStubbsTears]

Would Corbyn have called the no confidence vote if he didn't think he had the votes?

He has no choice, she basically called him out and he can't carry on saying he's going to do it and then not.

Many reckon she will win it.  A big loss but again you listen to her and she impresses in her speeches tonight.  Why can't she be like that all the time?

He big thing is May wins tomorrow then what?  I cannot see the Tories going against her really but you never know....

When the No Confidence motion loses and there's therefore no chance of a General Election, Corbyn can then move the Labour Party on to supporting a second referendum to unblock Parliament. That's the only tangible result I can see, unless May somehow manages to lose this too!

Aye. Corbyn CAN. But he'll have to do it through gritted teeth. If we go for a second referendum, that'll be one of his lifetime ambitions slipping through his fingers.

[BillyStubbsTears]

After tonight's vote the EU seem to be saying the door is closed there is nothing to discuss.
If this really is their position then there is nowhere to go except No Deal or a second referendum.
There aren't any other options and if No Deal isn't an option then.....

Well aye.

And it will cause a very, very unpleasant and divisive atmosphere in the country. Because we haven't had leaders sufficiently statesman-like to see that we were inevitably going to end up here, and to start preparing the population for it. 

Instead we've had Kitsons like Grayling justifying far-right violence in the case of a second referendum.

[Donnywolf]

After tonight's vote the EU seem to be saying the door is closed there is nothing to discuss.
If this really is their position then there is nowhere to go except No Deal or a second referendum.
There aren't any other options and if No Deal isn't an option then.....

I have my Pen poised to place my "X" already

I will get a third chance to vote the right way

76 Leave (I lost)
16 Remain (I lost)
2019 ?

[drfchound]

After tonight's vote the EU seem to be saying the door is closed there is nothing to discuss.
If this really is their position then there is nowhere to go except No Deal or a second referendum.
There aren't any other options and if No Deal isn't an option then.....

I have my Pen poised to place my "X" already

I will get a third chance to vote the right way

76 Leave (I lost)
16 Remain (I lost)
2019 ?

Will you be confused though mate when there will be more than two options to vote for?

[Mr1Croft]

Given Sinn Fein do not take their 7 seats, the Speaker and 3 deputies do not vote, 2 of which are Labour MPs and 1 of which is a Conservative. 320 will be enough to secure tomorrow's vote either way. If the Labour MP who is pregnant and has been recommended an immediate cesarian does not cast her vote tomorrow for obvious reasons then it becomes 319 and so forth.

If every sitting Tory legible to vote and the DUP's 10 MPs vote for the Government then they have 326. 

However the 117 that voted against Theresa May was much higher than expected and whilst the vast majority will be expected to back her, it would only take a minimum of 7 Tory rebels to bring down this Government. I think the odds of that are very slim, but it's not a foregone conclusion like many are suggesting, what a Tory says they will do and what they actually do is a different matter.

[RedJ]

She was expecting earlier on to be brought back to the House of Commons tomorrow by her husband, so I think she will be voting.

[albie]

So what has changed?

The May deal is as dead as a dodo with such a heavy reverse.
No deal as default was ruled out by May tonight, and does not have the numbers in the HoC.

May is safe from another confidence vote from her party for a full year. She is too thick skinned to resign.
So what are the options for ConReb, stick with May through thin and thinner, or move her on!

She should survive the VoC, but with a diminished position. The DUP have her over a barrel, and will play her to the max.

Will there be cabinet resignations, and will many Tory MP's will abstain to avoid directly opposing the government?

Even if there were to be a majority in favour of Ref2 (there is not at the moment), then a viable option would need to be agreed to stand against the remain status quo. So the indicative vote comes into play.

May would still need to offer Ref2 though, seek to agree a delay to Article 50, and set up Ref2 in 6 months time.

The big data exploiters in the original Leave Ref must be licking their lips at the business opportunity.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Would Corbyn have called the no confidence vote if he didn't think he had the votes?

He has no choice, she basically called him out and he can't carry on saying he's going to do it and then not.

Many reckon she will win it.  A big loss but again you listen to her and she impresses in her speeches tonight.  Why can't she be like that all the time?

He big thing is May wins tomorrow then what?  I cannot see the Tories going against her really but you never know....

When the No Confidence motion loses and there's therefore no chance of a General Election, Corbyn can then move the Labour Party on to supporting a second referendum to unblock Parliament. That's the only tangible result I can see, unless May somehow manages to lose this too!

Aye. Corbyn CAN. But he'll have to do it through gritted teeth. If we go for a second referendum, that'll be one of his lifetime ambitions slipping through his fingers.

But the Conference voted for it, he can't ignore them. Aye, it'll be through gritted teeth but if he betrays his own membership he's as finished as May.

[BillyStubbsTears]

This thread.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Peston/status/1085286045523107842

[BillyStubbsTears]

Albie

If so much as one Minister abstains tomorrow, I'll buy you half a dozen pints before the match on Saturday.

Barring enforced absences, I'd be astonished if any Tory MP doesn't vote for her.

The whole VoNC thing is utterly pointless, although it does give May the chance to get back in the saddle with a quick win after today's disaster.

As I've said before, you do begin to wonder whether Corbyn is a hostile agent.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

What choice did Corbyn have? They'd ramped up the narrative, Starmer more than anyone to a point that May had effectively said let's do it then.  He had to do it or she opened the door for someone else to and him look weak.  Granted I expect she knew his plan anyway.....

I saw the Peston thread before and my thoughts are unchanged, there is no winner from this really.

With the eu clearly not wanting to budge it's all a bit stalemate.

My personal opinion is that Brexit shouldn't be abandoned because a deal cannot be agreed.

[tommy toes]

BST.
That's a bit churlish. All the opposition have been crowing for Corbyn to call a vote of no confidence for weeks. Now that he does he's accused of it being a pointless exercise. He had to call it now even if he knew it would not succeed. Which it won't.

[wilts rover]

Albie

If so much as one Minister abstains tomorrow, I'll buy you half a dozen pints before the match on Saturday.

Barring enforced absences, I'd be astonished if any Tory MP doesn't vote for her.

The whole VoNC thing is utterly pointless, although it does give May the chance to get back in the saddle with a quick win after today's disaster.

As I've said before, you do begin to wonder whether Corbyn is a hostile agent.

How terrible, a Labour leader following Labour conference policy.... if only he had done the decent thing and lost the 2017 GE by a huge majority and let Teresa May carry out her original hard Brexit. At least you and Stephen Kinnock would be happy.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Aaaand once again Wilts goes into "if you criticise Corbyn, you're a Blairite" mode. Didn't take long.

I was out canvassing for a Corbyn Govt all day in election day in June 2017. Were you?

I whooped so hard I nearly crashed the car on the way home that night when we heard the exit poll.

Grow up.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Tommy/Wilts.

Conference policy was NOT to call a VoNC. It was to do all possible to secure a GE.

It's patently obvious that the VoNC will be lost tomorrow, so it was stupid to call it.

A sensible approach would have been to say, "We WANT the Govt to be brought down, but we accept there is no mechanism by which that can happen. So we move onto the pressing issue of trying to sort out May's clusterf**k".

Instead, we'll have a pointless vote which will result in the DUP and ERG corralling around May.

[Mr1Croft]

 By normal precedents, a defeat of 232 votes on a minority Government's flagship policy would see the Prime Minister resigning before the night is over. But we live in unprecedented times.

But it the Leader of The Opposition cannot table a Vote of No Confidence when a minority Government loses by such a staggering margin then when can he?

[albie]

BST,

I did not say Ministers would abstain.
Some Tory backbenchers might, but not in significant numbers.

By next week, I would expect Cabinet Ministers to take a view on whether they are best placed on the inside, or on the outside.
They will do so on the basis of their own career prospects.

The VoC is not pointless, even if it is lost.
It puts pressure on the Tory members to clarify their position, and offer their voters a view on whether they think the party interest is more important than the national interest.

As Wilts says, Corbyn is following the policy set out at Conference to seek an early GE, and supported by Starmer.

The VoC is a step in that process. Had he not done so, there would have been criticised for a missed opportunity.

Please don't add your own propaganda to posts that you either have not read properly, or choose to   misinterpret. Your obsessive dislike of Corbyn is starting to look slightly unhinged.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

By normal precedents, a defeat of 232 votes on a minority Government's flagship policy would see the Prime Minister resigning before the night is over. But we live in unprecedented times.

But it the Leader of The Opposition cannot table a Vote of No Confidence when a minority Government loses by such a staggering margin then when can he?

Take your point but likely another day wasted for effectively nothing.....

[wilts rover]

On election day I was with the future Mrs Wilts Rover at her eldests wedding in Peckham. They were at the reception whilst I watched the tv back at the hotel in amazement. We bumped in Harriet Harmon and asked her how she thought they would do. 'I think it will be close she said'. She got a majority of 37 000.

I did campaign in Bristol North the previous week though, which was one of the seats Labour took.

Anything else you want to know?

Now justify your attack on the Labour leader for following Labour policy?