Brexit deal

[wilts rover]

By normal precedents, a defeat of 232 votes on a minority Government's flagship policy would see the Prime Minister resigning before the night is over. But we live in unprecedented times.

But it the Leader of The Opposition cannot table a Vote of No Confidence when a minority Government loses by such a staggering margin then when can he?

Take your point but likely another day wasted for effectively nothing.....

May isn't going to report back to Parliament on what she will do next until Monday - so we have actually got 5 wasted days (so far).

Of course even if she looses the vote tomorrow she doesn't have to step down. She has 14 days to see if she can regain the confidence of the house.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wilts
As I said, party policy was not explicitly to call a VoC. Only the most foolish of politicians call votes that they can't win. Doing so when your opponent is on the ropes is the equivalent of a boxer allowing his opponent's corner to get the smelling salts out for their man. It achieves nothing other than to reinforce May's position.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Albie. Like many Corbynistas, you seem unable to differentiate between people WANTING Corbyn to win, and people having genuine concerns about whether he can. It's a bit of an epidemic these days.

[Mr1Croft]

By normal precedents, a defeat of 232 votes on a minority Government's flagship policy would see the Prime Minister resigning before the night is over. But we live in unprecedented times.

But it the Leader of The Opposition cannot table a Vote of No Confidence when a minority Government loses by such a staggering margin then when can he?

Take your point but likely another day wasted for effectively nothing.....

May isn't going to report back to Parliament on what she will do next until Monday - so we have actually got 5 wasted days (so far).

Of course even if she looses the vote tomorrow she doesn't have to step down. She has 14 days to see if she can regain the confidence of the house.

Which is crucial. Some Tory MPs may look to vote against their own party to then try and secure guarantees from May before voting for her in a confidence motion within 14 days. A couple may abstain for that reason as well.

Some may vote against her knowing even she isn't as thick skinned to fight another election and they cannot topple her until December this year at the earliest.

Because it's already a hung parliament and the DUP only give her a working majority of 7 it really isn't as pointless as some would suggest, I think the margin of victory will be by 1 or 2 votes. 

[Glyn_Wigley]

If the ERG really want - and have the balls - to get rid of May, they only have to tell her in private they'll abstain tomorrow. That would force May to contemplate the decision of resigning herself or being forced to have a General Election that she (and her party) has a good chance of losing. I can't see that happening though

[albie]

ERG want to keep her in place, Glyn, as a blame sponge.

As Mr Croft says, if May survives the VoC with just a thin sliver of votes, her position going into multi party discussion to seek a majority is weakened.

Treeza needs to cut a new deal at the time she has least negotiating traction. The EU can't pull a rabbit out of the hat for her, and why should they?

Nothing to offer, unless she makes concessions that will alienate her own support base.
No-one is going to follow her regardless, after the shambles today, apart from the DUP who will milk it dry.

I think she will try to press time by returning with the same deal tweaked. The Speaker may refuse her permission on the basis of no substantive change.

Thats all she has....unless she realigns around an amendment which goes against everything she has been saying from the get go.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I think the more likely outcome is that the whole process is effectively taken out of her hands. The thought of her being allowed, on behalf of the country, to go back to the EU to ask them for changes which might be sufficient to turn round a vote like this is simply bizarre. I'm genuinely concerned that she has something approaching a mental health problem if she really thinks that is remotely possible. The word from Cabinet leaks is that she has been becoming more and more secretive - none of them have been given any indication of what Plan B is, which is one reason that Hancock floundered earlier (the other being that he is f**king hopeless).

There were rumours last week of the Chairs of the Select Committees forming an ad hoc Brexit Executive Committee, taking over the entire process on behalf of MPs and thrashing out a way forward that would have a chance of getting a majority in the House. Effectively by-passing the PM. It's unprecedented, but the unprecedented seems to be standard at the moment.

[Donnywolf]

. The word from ,,................ - none of them have been given any indication of what Plan B is, which is one reason that Hancock floundered earlier (the other being that he is f**king hopeless).

.... amen to that. They have lost so many "good" (and I use the word in its loosest form !!!) people to this issue that there are too many people like Hancock and the bloke in charge of NHS (name escapes me) - and GRAYLING - simply out of their depth !!!

Lightweights the lot of them - while the Country does like Hancock and flounders around - wanting leadership. In all my days I have never seen such a mess - and in fact an entirely avoidable and self inflicted mess

[drfchound]

I think the more likely outcome is that the whole process is effectively taken out of her hands. The thought of her being allowed, on behalf of the country, to go back to the EU to ask them for changes which might be sufficient to turn round a vote like this is simply bizarre. I'm genuinely concerned that she has something approaching a mental health problem if she really thinks that is remotely possible. The word from Cabinet leaks is that she has been becoming more and more secretive - none of them have been given any indication of what Plan B is, which is one reason that Hancock floundered earlier (the other being that he is f**king hopeless).

There were rumours last week of the Chairs of the Select Committees forming an ad hoc Brexit Executive Committee, taking over the entire process on behalf of MPs and thrashing out a way forward that would have a chance of getting a majority in the House. Effectively by-passing the PM. It's unprecedented, but the unprecedented seems to be standard at the moment.

This ad hoc Brexit committee, is it something like I was suggesting a few weeks ago.

[Donnywolf]

.... and back on one of  2 horses - I had to laugh at the "sneer" by May at the Lib Dems. They stood in the last General Election on a "Second Referendum - with a view to keeping us in the EU" and what happened ? They got ONLY 7% of the people supporting that she sneered again

However that 7% was a total of 2.3 million votes (7.4 of the total Votes cast) and it won them 12 Seats

May (attempting to produce a strong and stable Govt dont forget) and her Party got 13.6 mllion votes. They got 42% of the Votes but got 317 Seats

Whoa whoa - so that means the Libs got about a sixth of the Votes that the Conservatives yet got a thirtieth of the Seats ? You would think that they would have got about 42 Seats surely .... Cant be right surely ? Well under first past the post it is exactly what happens

Sneer at the Libs May - then look at the DUP. Total Votes they got 292,000 (292 thousand !) That got them 10 Seats . 10 Seats with only 300k ish Votes ? Lib Dems (sneered at) got as we have seen 2.3 million Votes - lets call that 7 times more than the DUP but only 2 seats more.

Ironic that May sneers at the LibDems and yet got the DUP and their 10 Seats to allow her to form that  much trumpeted  "strong and stable Govt" - She gave them everything they asked for to ensure they would come on board - and of course they will prop her up again today

Poor old Green Party got 525 thousand Votes lets call it twice as many as the DUP and 1 Seat - yes a tenth of those got by the DUP. If they (The Greens) ask for anything financial for what may be a very worthy cause May laughs them out of the place

It just CANT be right

[Ldr]

A Corbyn ministry terrifies me

[bobjimwilly]

A Corbyn ministry terrifies me

Which of his policies terrify you?

[Filo]

A Corbyn ministry terrifies me

Why?

You’ve seen what damage the present dictator has done?

[DonnyOsmond]

A Corbyn ministry terrifies me

Which of his policies terrify you?

Probably the fact he's actually a terrorist which the Bible that is the Daily Mail has been telling us for years!

I've just seen this last page but talking of the Lib Dems if they're the biggest pro second referendum party then they'll do well if there's another GE with Corbyn being pro Leave despite the members wanting another referendum.

[drfchound]

.... and back on one of  2 horses - I had to laugh at the "sneer" by May at the Lib Dems. They stood in the last General Election on a "Second Referendum - with a view to keeping us in the EU" and what happened ? They got ONLY 7% of the people supporting that she sneered again

However that 7% was a total of 2.3 million votes (7.4 of the total Votes cast) and it won them 12 Seats

May (attempting to produce a strong and stable Govt dont forget) and her Party got 13.6 mllion votes. They got 42% of the Votes but got 317 Seats

Whoa whoa - so that means the Libs got about a sixth of the Votes that the Conservatives yet got a thirtieth of the Seats ? You would think that they would have got about 42 Seats surely .... Cant be right surely ? Well under first past the post it is exactly what happens

Sneer at the Libs May - then look at the DUP. Total Votes they got 292,000 (292 thousand !) That got them 10 Seats . 10 Seats with only 300k ish Votes ? Lib Dems (sneered at) got as we have seen 2.3 million Votes - lets call that 7 times more than the DUP but only 2 seats more.

Ironic that May sneers at the LibDems and yet got the DUP and their 10 Seats to allow her to form that  much trumpeted  "strong and stable Govt" - She gave them everything they asked for to ensure they would come on board - and of course they will prop her up again today

Poor old Green Party got 525 thousand Votes lets call it twice as many as the DUP and 1 Seat - yes a tenth of those got by the DUP. If they (The Greens) ask for anything financial for what may be a very worthy cause May laughs them out of the place

It just CANT be right

Not much in politics comes over as “right” does it.
Look at how Scotland voted in the 2017 GE.
The SNP won almost three times as many seats as the Conservatives but only got 8% more of the whole votes.
SNP 35 seats from 977,569 votes.
Conservatives 13 seats from 747,949.

To take it a bit further, Labour won only 7 seats from 717,007 votes.

You shouldn’t be surprised by those figures you quoted Wolfie.

[Ldr]

A Corbyn ministry terrifies me

Why?

You’ve seen what damage the present dictator has done?

And I've said to you before Filo (on Twitter) that neither of the main parties are fit to rule

[DonnyOsmond]

A Corbyn ministry terrifies me

Why?

You’ve seen what damage the present dictator has done?

And I've said to you before Filo (on Twitter) that neither of the main parties are fit to rule

What policies are you against from Labour though?

[Ldr]

A Corbyn ministry terrifies me

Why?

You’ve seen what damage the present dictator has done?

And I've said to you before Filo (on Twitter) that neither of the main parties are fit to rule

What policies are you against from Labour though?

I'm more aghast at Corbyn (and abbot) than Labour itself. A more moderate labour would have a chance at my vote (at the moment I find myself politically homeless).

If you wanted to look at specifics there isn't much, though I am opposed to re nationalizing railways, my view there is that you pay for a service as you use it - I dislike the idea of subsidising things. I do agree with certain social policies. UC is a massive failure and the NHS has to be protected at all costs though people need to realise outsourcing (currently necessary) is might be same as privatisation (unacceptable in the case of the NHS).

My major concern is financial, the tax the rich and companies mantra looks great on paper but in practice doesn't work. When they fail to extract the money needed it falls on the rest of us who can't move ourselves or our money overseas to pay for all these policies.

Don't get me started on his falklands sovereignty either........

In short, totally disillusioned

[SydneyRover]

A Corbyn ministry terrifies me

Why?

You’ve seen what damage the present dictator has done?

And I've said to you before Filo (on Twitter) that neither of the main parties are fit to rule

What policies are you against from Labour though?

I'm more aghast at Corbyn (and abbot) than Labour itself. A more moderate labour would have a chance at my vote (at the moment I find myself politically homeless).

If you wanted to look at specifics there isn't much, though I am opposed to re nationalizing railways, my view there is that you pay for a service as you use it - I dislike the idea of subsidising things. I do agree with certain social policies. UC is a massive failure and the NHS has to be protected at all costs though people need to realise outsourcing (currently necessary) is might be same as privatisation (unacceptable in the case of the NHS).

My major concern is financial, the tax the rich and companies mantra looks great on paper but in practice doesn't work. When they fail to extract the money needed it falls on the rest of us who can't move ourselves or our money overseas to pay for all these policies.

Don't get me started on his falklands sovereignty either........

In short, totally disillusioned

The problem with problem with privatisation of services and utilities is it is difficult to maintain competition and the conservatives don't care as it ideological and they have invested in them. LDR

''Funding for rail companies today is four times what British Rail got in the 1970s and 80s''

''Britain’s privatised railways have been getting around £5 billion on average in government support over the last five years. In the last five years of the 1980s—the earliest period we have figures for before privatisation—it was an average of £1.6 billion in today’s money''

https://fullfact.org/economy/government-funding-rail-industry-bbcqt/

So apart from privatisation/re-nationalization of railways what else are you concerned about?

[SydneyRover]

If Britain was a private company the board would have been fired years ago, the present board perpetuate the myth that they have claim to be the money managers ably supported by the yellow press. It wouldn't surprise me if the next move was to set fire to the stand (parliament) for the insurance money.

[Donnywolf]

.... and back on one of  2 horses - I had to laugh at the "sneer" by May at the Lib Dems. They stood in the last General Election on a "Second Referendum - with a view to keeping us in the EU" and what happened ? They got ONLY 7% of the people supporting that she sneered again

However that 7% was a total of 2.3 million votes (7.4 of the total Votes cast) and it won them 12 Seats

May (attempting to produce a strong and stable Govt dont forget) and her Party got 13.6 mllion votes. They got 42% of the Votes but got 317 Seats

Whoa whoa - so that means the Libs got about a sixth of the Votes that the Conservatives yet got a thirtieth of the Seats ? You would think that they would have got about 42 Seats surely .... Cant be right surely ? Well under first past the post it is exactly what happens

Sneer at the Libs May - then look at the DUP. Total Votes they got 292,000 (292 thousand !) That got them 10 Seats . 10 Seats with only 300k ish Votes ? Lib Dems (sneered at) got as we have seen 2.3 million Votes - lets call that 7 times more than the DUP but only 2 seats more.

Ironic that May sneers at the LibDems and yet got the DUP and their 10 Seats to allow her to form that  much trumpeted  "strong and stable Govt" - She gave them everything they asked for to ensure they would come on board - and of course they will prop her up again today

Poor old Green Party got 525 thousand Votes lets call it twice as many as the DUP and 1 Seat - yes a tenth of those got by the DUP. If they (The Greens) ask for anything financial for what may be a very worthy cause May laughs them out of the place

It just CANT be right

Not much in politics comes over as “right” does it.
Look at how Scotland voted in the 2017 GE.
The SNP won almost three times as many seats as the Conservatives but only got 8% more of the whole votes.
SNP 35 seats from 977,569 votes.
Conservatives 13 seats from 747,949.

To take it a bit further, Labour won only 7 seats from 717,007 votes.

You shouldn’t be surprised by those figures you quoted Wolfie.

They dont surpise me in the least

I have been trumpeting for PR for ages on here (sorry to bore everyone) - and if you need to read from people far more qualified then I am try Googling Make Votes Matter

Or here is their Twitter Page    https://twitter.com/MakeVotesMatter

[Glyn_Wigley]

ERG want to keep her in place, Glyn, as a blame sponge.

As Mr Croft says, if May survives the VoC with just a thin sliver of votes, her position going into multi party discussion to seek a majority is weakened.

Treeza needs to cut a new deal at the time she has least negotiating traction. The EU can't pull a rabbit out of the hat for her, and why should they?

Nothing to offer, unless she makes concessions that will alienate her own support base.
No-one is going to follow her regardless, after the shambles today, apart from the DUP who will milk it dry.

I think she will try to press time by returning with the same deal tweaked. The Speaker may refuse her permission on the basis of no substantive change.

Thats all she has....unless she realigns around an amendment which goes against everything she has been saying from the get go.

Organising a party No Confidence vote in December is a funny way of keeping her in place!

[GazLaz]

I think JC is going to hammer the second referendum option now.

[albie]

I mean NOW, Glyn.

The attempt to remove her as leader in December failed, so the ERG have lost that chance. They made a mistake in going for the leadership VoC when they did.

With May secure as leader, only a GE (or resignation) can remove her. Least bad option for the ERG is to let her bullshit on, for the moment, taking the country closer to the no deal exit that they prefer.

May is surplus to requirements after the end of March, unless she extends Article 50.
There is no easy means to ease her out, short of a mass cabinet revolt.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

I think JC is going to hammer the second referendum option now.

The pressure from his party probably gives him no choice, what that means for his chances in an election are questionable, probably positive in London etc, but in places like Barnsley?  Granted it's probably not enough to see them lose that many seats.

Equally he's clearly anti EU himself, will be very hard for him to change his view on his 20-30 years of beliefs...

Glyn, on May the Tories will vote least bad, they can push Theresa May a huge amount she needs them, they cannot risk a Corbyn victory giving them no chance of achieving their aims.

[drfchound]

I think JC is going to hammer the second referendum option now.

The pressure from his party probably gives him no choice, what that means for his chances in an election are questionable, probably positive in London etc, but in places like Barnsley?  Granted it's probably not enough to see them lose that many seats.

Equally he's clearly anti EU himself, will be very hard for him to change his view on his 20-30 years of beliefs...

Glyn, on May the Tories will vote least bad, they can push Theresa May a huge amount she needs them, they cannot risk a Corbyn victory giving them no chance of achieving their aims.

I would think that in places like Barnsley, and Doncaster for that matter, Labour would still win the seats hands down.
Obviously JC wouldn’t be to man they would be electing locally but if he is still Party Leader those seats would go towards him getting the top job.
I can’t see many hard line Labour voters casting a vote for a different party just because they didn’t like Corbyn being in charge.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Hound.

Problem is, as the poll before Xmas showed explicitly (and every other poll shows implicitly) there aren't that many hard line supporters of Corbyn's Labour party.

The figures in that poll did that if Lab went into a GE supporting Brexit, their support dropped to 22% and the LDs went up to 25%. And poll after poll shows that current Labour supporters don't show a great deal of support for Corbyn as leader.

Those numbers make perfect sense if you look at the issue dispassionately. The Corbynistas claim that he has reinvigorated Left politics. He hasn't. He's inspired 20-25% of the electorate and they strongly support him and Labour. But the other 15-20% of the electorate who currently support Labour are doing so despite him, not because of him. That is flaky support that could slip if pushed.

It's a mess. It might work. He might be able to hold onto that support if he plays things sensibly over Brexit. But if he carries on doing what he was doing over Xmas, saying that Labour should support Brexit, he WILL destroy Labour's electoral chances.

[Donnywolf]

https://twitter.com/MakeVotesMatter/status/1083515097048334341

57% of Voters in South Yorks gave Labour a clean sweep - 43 % of the losers have no representtion whatsoever and so a lot dont even vote

[BillyStubbsTears]

Forgot to add.

The problem that the polls show for Corbyn is that there is NO stand over Brexit that doesn't lead to a reduction in Lab support. A very big one if he backs Brexit. A small one if he backs Ref2.

That's why he's previously had a policy of backing neither and thus appealing to both sides. But that can't survive the next few weeks. Labour has to come down on one side or the other now. And that risks exposing the flakiness of Corbyn's Labour party support.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

It's a point, but equally as someone who did not vote Labour at the election I don't feel not represented the majority are represented and that's fine to me.