Brexit deal

[GazLaz]

Simply will not be a second referendum.....

You can get 8/11 no referendum at the bookies, fill your boots.

[IDM]

Simply will not be a second referendum.....

How can you possibly say that with any certainty.??

The whole Brexit is a complete clusterf**k whether you want to leave or stay, the government has made a shambles of it all so any outcome is still possible..

[Boomstick]

Simply will not be a second referendum.....

How can you possibly say that with any certainty.??

The whole Brexit is a complete clusterf**k whether you want to leave or stay, the government has made a shambles of it all so any outcome is still possible..

The shit show so far would pale into insignificance if there was a second referendum.

[IDM]

With what the government may eventually propose and vote on for brexit being probably so fa away from what leave voters wanted, taking the final decision back to the electorate may be the only sensible action..

Alternatively - article 50 is delayed, there’s a general election, and the new government pulls out of brexit notwithstanding the 2016 referendum..

[BillyStubbsTears]

There's not going to be a General Election. Get that clear. Neither the Tory party or the DUP (once May has gone) want one. They have a majority in the Commons. So there won't be one.

We WILL have a Tory Govt with DUP support sorting out the clusterf**k that THEY got us into.

May will go.

Someone else will take over but get this clear in your heads.

Parliament will not allow a No Deal Brexit to occur.

Get that clear and the consequence  is obvious. There is now no possible way that this Parliament can support ANY deal.

Neither a softer deal which Lab would propose, or a harder deal which the Johnson wing if the Tory party would propose can get a majority.

There is no possible outcome to get us out of the impasse apart from a referendum on CLEAR AND UNAMBIGUOUS questions about what Leave means. 

[BillyStubbsTears]

Go on then BS.

How do we proceed from here?

Not "what do you want to happen?" "What, practically CAN happen?"

[IDM]

There's not going to be a General Election. Get that clear. Neither the Tory party or the DUP (once May has gone) want one. They have a majority in the Commons. So there won't be one.

We WILL have a Tory Govt with DUP support sorting out the clusterf**k that THEY got us into.

May will go.

Someone else will take over but get this clear in your heads.

Parliament will not allow a No Deal Brexit to occur.

Get that clear and the consequence  is obvious. There is now no possible way that this Parliament can support ANY deal.

Neither a softer deal which Lab would propose, or a harder deal which the Johnson wing if the Tory party would propose can get a majority.

There is no possible outcome to get us out of the impasse apart from a referendum on CLEAR AND UNAMBIGUOUS questions about what Leave means. 

I agree with most of this, especially the last bit, which is what the original referendum should have been about.!

Although I wouldn’t rule out a general election, especially if enough Brexiteer MPs force a no confidence vote in the government, never mind in the PM..

Realistically I think we will postpone article 50, May will go - either voluntarily or by forced ejection - and then we’ll be in a pissing contest with the EU for a new deal, which at the moment the EU won’t do..

[BillyStubbsTears]

IDM

The thing about bringing down the Govt and forcing a GE is, you have to ask yourself "who benefits?"

Why should the Hard Brexit believers bring down a Tory Govt and run the risk of installing a Labour one?

The ONLY way a GE can be called is if a dozen or so Tory and/or DUP MPs decided that it is in their interests to bring this Govt to an end, and I can't for the life of me see what they would stand to gain by that.

Except.

Just possibly.

There might be one possibility I'm overlooking, but it is VERY outlandish and would require someone to be dowing so VERY long term planning.

If enough Tories decided that Brexit was now so toxic that the best way out for them would be to stand aside and let a Labour Govt come in, take the responsibility for sorting it out and get all the shit of the Hard Brexit voters aimed at them when they went through with the very softest of Brexits.

But that would go against every instinct of politicians, which is to hang on for as long as you can and not give power to the other side.

[Boomstick]

Go on then BS.

How do we proceed from here?

Not "what do you want to happen?" "What, practically CAN happen?"

Renegotiate with the EU (probably won't happen) or persuade MPs it's the only deal we will get .

[IDM]

I don’t think there will be another GE for the reasons you outlined, but given the collossal turd wagon this government is pulling now, I can’t rule anything out..

[BillyStubbsTears]

Actually, the enormity of May pulling this vote and scuttling off back to Brussels is only just dawning on me.

Our system of Govt is supposed to be about Parliament being sovereign, but the PM having some quite exceptional powers as, effectively the Chief Executive Officer. In theory, the PM can only operate with the consent of Parliament, but in practice, for most of my lifetime, PMs have had very large majorities in the Commons. Thatcher never had less that 40. Blair and Brown never had less than 60. Most of the time they had majorities above 100. Even Cameron in 2010-15, once he'd got the LDs acting as safe poodles had a majority of more than 70 seats.

In those circumstances, unless they f**k up monumentally, the PM is all-powerful. They can cope with a couple of dozen rebels on their side voting against them and they don't have to placate them. So, Parliament tends to become very lacking in power and the PM does as the PM says.

May's situation has shown that we are now in a totally different scenario. I have never in all my life seen Parliament effectively say to a PM "NO! We are not accepting what you say" on such an important issue. I've never seen a PM running scared of Parliament and go scuttling off to other countries begging for help to save his/her career.

But that's where we are today. A PM in office but not in power.

[The Red Baron]

There's not going to be a General Election. Get that clear. Neither the Tory party or the DUP (once May has gone) want one. They have a majority in the Commons. So there won't be one.

We WILL have a Tory Govt with DUP support sorting out the clusterf**k that THEY got us into.

May will go.

Someone else will take over but get this clear in your heads.

Parliament will not allow a No Deal Brexit to occur.

Get that clear and the consequence  is obvious. There is now no possible way that this Parliament can support ANY deal.

Neither a softer deal which Lab would propose, or a harder deal which the Johnson wing if the Tory party would propose can get a majority.

There is no possible outcome to get us out of the impasse apart from a referendum on CLEAR AND UNAMBIGUOUS questions about what Leave means. 

BST. In this context the decision of the ECJ that the Article 50 notice can be suspended / revoked is massively important. In effect it takes "No Deal Brexit by default" off the table. Even if there are not enough MPs on any side to agree to one of the many options, there are surely enough who would vote in favour of suspending the A50 notice to avoid "crashing out" on 29th March.

It also could be used to buy time for a second referendum, maybe on May's deal or Remain, or leave with no deal or Remain, to take place next summer.

[The Red Baron]

Actually, the enormity of May pulling this vote and scuttling off back to Brussels is only just dawning on me.

Our system of Govt is supposed to be about Parliament being sovereign, but the PM having some quite exceptional powers as, effectively the Chief Executive Officer. In theory, the PM can only operate with the consent of Parliament, but in practice, for most of my lifetime, PMs have had very large majorities in the Commons. Thatcher never had less that 40. Blair and Brown never had less than 60. Most of the time they had majorities above 100. Even Cameron in 2010-15, once he'd got the LDs acting as safe poodles had a majority of more than 70 seats.

In those circumstances, unless they f**k up monumentally, the PM is all-powerful. They can cope with a couple of dozen rebels on their side voting against them and they don't have to placate them. So, Parliament tends to become very lacking in power and the PM does as the PM says.

May's situation has shown that we are now in a totally different scenario. I have never in all my life seen Parliament effectively say to a PM "NO! We are not accepting what you say" on such an important issue. I've never seen a PM running scared of Parliament and go scuttling off to other countries begging for help to save his/her career.

But that's where we are today. A PM in office but not in power.

The only recent parallel is perhaps John Major and his battles over Maastricht. However unlike May he had a wafer-thin majority, battle lines were not so sharply drawn in the Tory party over Europe and he was able to deploy some old-fashioned arm-twisting. The Chief Whip has obviously told May today that the latter is no longer possible. Also hardly any Labour MPs have been prepared to ride over the hill to help May out.

My guess is she'll go to Brussels on Thursday and ask for some different wording on the Backstop. The EU might a while back have been prepared to give ground, but I think they will see her as a lame duck who can't deliver the agreement she negotiated with them. She's exhausted her political capital in Brussels and I expect her to be gone by the weekend.

[BillyStubbsTears]

BS.

Arrggghh! This is like Groundhog Day. We've been talking about this for months and months.

Renegotiate about WHAT?

The EU has red lines. It is not going to change them because it is more important for the EU to retain its integrity and stability than to help the UK out of its self-imposed disaster.

Let's go through it step by step. Again.

1) This is ALL about the Irish border, as I've been saying for two years and more.

2) The EU's policy from the start has been that if WE in the UK want a helpful deal with the EU, we have to commit to not f**king up the Irish border and causing severe problems for an EU member state (Ireland).

3) If we DON'T want a deal with the EU, we can leave without a deal, and then the Irish border issue goes away. We can shit on Ireland, but we might well expect there will be consequences down the line.

4) The EU is NOT going to change its policy on the Irish border. That much is crystal clear. we have no big negotiating cards to play to force them to do that, other than threaten to commit economic suicide ourselves. And we won't do that because it would be f**king stupid. So us threatening to do it is tedious and not believable.

5) As a result, the only situation that the EU will accept as a precursor for negotiating a preferential deal with us, is for NI to stay in the Customs Union. That, more or less, takes the border issue away. But because they don't trust us to keep our word (understandably, given how duplicitous we've been to date) they insist on that being written legally into our Withdrawal Agreement (that's the Backstop). And we, legally, are not allowed to breach that Backstop unless and until there is some other fairy dust solution to the NI border issue.

6) But the DUP (on whom this Govt depends for votes) will not accept a situation where NI has a different deal than the rest of the UK.

7) So, May has negotiated a backstop that effectively means ALL the UK will remain in the CU until the fairy dust solution to the NI border is sorted. And we cannot, legally, pull out of that.

8) But her own Hard Brexit Tory MPs won't accept that, because it infringes on UK Sovereignty.


So. Go on. Tell me what we go and renegotiate to get out of this shithole.

We haven't got anything to force the EU to change its stance.

The PM hasn't got anything to force the DUP or her Hard Brexit rebels to change their stance.

There. Is. Nothing. To. Renegotiate. What she will do is come back with some warms words from the EU and try to use that to persuade the rebels. But there are dozens and dozens and dozens of them. And they have made it clear that they are not budging on a matter of principle.


A GE could change the situation if it gave a different balance of power in the Commons. But why should the Tory party give up power?

So. I'll ask again. What possible way out is there except a clear and unambiguous referendum? That's not me saying I want that. It's me saying I cannot see any possible alternative to get us out of the massive hole that we've jumped into.

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB

Nail. Head. Both of your posts.

[The Red Baron]

The more I think about it the more I think that May knows in her heart of hearts that it's game over for her. She'll be able to say that she stuck to what she thought was right and was caught between a rock and a hard place. Avoiding the vote is surely about avoiding a General Election (although I didn't think that was on the cards even if the Government lost tomorrow.)

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB

I think it was more about pride. No retired PM wants the very last thing they did to be losing a vote by 150 on the most important issue facing the country for three generations. That guarantees bottom place in the table of British PMs. As it is, she has a case that she did her best with a shite hand, and can walk away with her head held high, repeating "Strong and stable! Strong and stable!" into the sunset.

[BillyStubbsTears]

It's worth reflecting on what Putin must be thinking.

Make no mistake. This is an unprecedented political crisis. Govt has simply ground to a halt. John Healy is scarcely a Shadow Cabinet heavyweight, but he's just summed it up in questions in the House. It's a session on question for the Housing Secretary. Healy started off his questions by asking if there was any point asking questions as no-one in Cabinet seems to be being told from one minute to the next what Govt policy is.

Think about this. This is utterly unprecedented. We are one of the strongest, richest, most dynamic, most powerful countries in the world, with one of the best established and most stable forms of Government. And it is falling apart in front of our eyes. This simply doesn't happen. Ever. And it will take years for us to regain our stability and our image in the eyes of other countries.

Not a bad return for Putin, on the £8m he shoved into the pockets of Farage and Banks to tip the vote in 2016. He must be pissing himself.

[RedJ]

Aye but at least we took back control!

[BillyStubbsTears]

Here's the core of the problem. It's actually very simple and easy to follow.

May wants a deal with the EU, with the UK out of the CU. But the EU won't gives us that deal because of the effect on Ireland.

If May wants to keep the DUP on side AND get a deal with the EU, that means all of the UK staying in the EU. But dozens of her own MPs won't vote for that so she can't get that past the Commons and she'll be booted out if she tries.

If May wants to keep all her MPs on side AND get a deal with the EU, it means NI and GB having different arrangements. But the DUP won't vote for that, so May's Govt loses a vote on No Confidence and there is a GE.

If we don't want a deal with the EU, we can walk away and say b*llocks to the Irish border. But that means economic Armageddon, and there is no way she can get that past the Commons.

It's a perfectly intractable problem. There is no way out whatsoever without a GE (which won't happen) or a referendum which MPs can then fall back on as instruction from the public.

[Donnywolf]

It my be that the HOC can FORCE a Vote on whether the Vote tonight can be suspended

The Speaker has just said "it would be most discourteous" for the Debate to be halted now

So I hope we get a Vote that is overwhelmingly in favour of them having the "suspended" Vote and that one slaughters May for good

[Copps is Magic]

Will the 'brexit means brexit' people ignore the fact the prime minister has just cancelled a democratic vote in parliament because she knew she was going to lose?

Whichever way you turn, on all sides, hypocrisy is staring you in the face. Sooner or later you have to become a grown-up about democracy lark and start making real meaningful statements about the pragmatic situation we're in.

[albie]

I assume the 1922 Committee will now get the 48 votes required to trigger a leadership vote.

Do the Tories support May to prevent Gove/Johnson/Rees-Smug gaining control, or is there another option to hold the rabid right at arms length?

After she falls (or is pushed) a new leader does not change the numbers game. It just puts someone else in the intractable position of leading a government without power.

They can choose to plough on, but to what end?
The key point is that a government needs a working majority, and that can only be delivered by a GE.

But there is a further problem that the fixed term parliament act can only be set aside by 2/3 majority in the HoC. Does anyone think that is achievable, unless a significant number of Tory MP's join the SNP and Labour to act?

The DUP could choose to abstain on this one....but that is not a reliable prediction. They say that they will not support a vote of confidence raised by Labour, but remain bullish about a GE.

We will find out in the New Year whether Turkeys will vote for Christmas!

[The Red Baron]

I notice that May was repeating her old mantra that the alternative to leaving with a deal (ie her deal) was leaving without a deal. The ruling on Article 50 makes that position untenable now.

[The Red Baron]

I assume the 1922 Committee will now get the 48 votes required to trigger a leadership vote.

Do the Tories support May to prevent Gove/Johnson/Rees-Smug gaining control, or is there another option to hold the rabid right at arms length?

After she falls (or is pushed) a new leader does not change the numbers game. It just puts someone else in the intractable position of leading a government without power.

They can choose to plough on, but to what end?
The key point is that a government needs a working majority, and that can only be delivered by a GE.

But there is a further problem that the fixed term parliament act can only be set aside by 2/3 majority in the HoC. Does anyone think that is achievable, unless a significant number of Tory MP's join the SNP and Labour to act?

The DUP could choose to abstain on this one....but that is not a reliable prediction. They say that they will not support a vote of confidence raised by Labour, but remain bullish about a GE.

We will find out in the New Year whether Turkeys will vote for Christmas!

I'd have thought her position is much more dangerous now than it was this morning. The drive (such as it is) for a no-confidence vote has been coming from the Hard Brexiteers. Now she's going to try and renegotiate her supposedly non-negotiatiable deal I'm struggling to see why Soft Brexiteers and Remainers should retain confidence in her.

Also it strikes me that the whole point of dodging the Commons vote was to avoid the danger of a General Election. All May has done is delayed the inevitable.

I'm not that convinced that the next leader would be a Hard Brexiteer. It's a question of them coalescing around one figure who can then appeal to enough non-Hard Brexiteer Tories to ensure they reach the members ballot. Last time the Hard Brexit vote went several ways while the centre of the party was able to get behind May. It's more likely that someone like Hunt or Javid would win out.

Whether that takes us any further forward is anyone's guess.

[albie]

The pound has slumped to a 20 month low today.
More turbulence across all sectors until some stability is restored.

Meanwhile, Treez has been spending well on her wheeze;
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/10/almost-100k-of-public-money-spent-on-brexit-deal-facebook-ads

It is now so dysfunctional we could be in a Trump scenario. A mentally unstable egotist making irrational decisions to shore up their own position.

What are the provisions for removing an incumbent showing clear signs of delusional impairment?

[Donnywolf]

I notice that May was repeating her old mantra that the alternative to leaving with a deal (ie her deal) was leaving without a deal. The ruling on Article 50 makes that position untenable now.

I would like to state what I really think of Mrs May and the mess she had presided over but I am afraid I would be banned from this Forum

I like it on here and would not jeapordise my "membership", and heres another thing - you CAN believe me more than that (delete all further potential text.....................................) Mrs May. How can anyone believe ANYTHING she ever says again ?

If I were a Barman in the HOC Bar serving her tonight and she ordered a "G&T on the Rocks" I would just have to ask - are you SURE ?

[Glyn_Wigley]

Go on then BS.

How do we proceed from here?

Not "what do you want to happen?" "What, practically CAN happen?"

Renegotiate with the EU (probably won't happen) or persuade MPs it's the only deal we will get .

And when they inevitably fail? What will you do then?

[Boomstick]

Go on then BS.

How do we proceed from here?

Not "what do you want to happen?" "What, practically CAN happen?"

Renegotiate with the EU (probably won't happen) or persuade MPs it's the only deal we will get .

And when they inevitably fail? What will you do then?

Wait and see. It's not failed yet

[BillyStubbsTears]

So I'll ask again BS.

What do you expect her to renegotiate with the EU?