Brexit deal

[drfchound]

Richard Branson did a very good quick response to the bbc breakfast presenter when he was asked what his thoughts on Brexit were.
If we leave the EU and his thoughts turn to reality then it would appear that we, as a nation, are f**ked.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I genuinely don't have a clue what's the state of play now.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46560807

It's obvious there's going to be no serious concession from the EU, but...

1) Are they hamming up how tough the EU is so that when May gets some meaningless change in wording, she can come back as the all conquering hero who battered the EU into a change.

2) Or is May just entirely out of her depth and having a nervous breakdown?

[RedJ]

Apparently she actually used the words "Brexit means Brexit" last night as well. Jesus wept.

We're definitely in nervous breakdown territory.

[BillyStubbsTears]

God help us.

Must admit, I heard her on the radio yesterday being buttonholed by a journalist on the way into the summit and she sounded like a person about to crack. All short of breath and every sentence prefaced by a sharp "Err..." before going into the pre-programmed "What I am...err...clear about..." bullshit mode.

What we must look like to the rest of the world.

[BillyStubbsTears]

OK. It's getting clearer.

Look at the difference between the draft statements that May wanted, and the final official statements.

https://mobile.twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1073355214340743168

The EU has reached the end of its patience and told her to f**k off.

[Not Now Kato]

It's time Labour got behind May's deal and voted for it.  Oh, wait..............................
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WEqIHUDsQlc
 
Probably one of the most polite Put-Downs ever. 

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Hard to tell what the posturing is about and I'm not sure what will change. I suspect the eu will move in time but not yet.

If they don't move then there's no deal really is there?

[BillyStubbsTears]

BFYP

How are they supposed to move?

What's the mechanism to bring that about?

They have said from the get go that we do not get a trade deal with them that involves problems for Ireland. The ONLY way to ensure there are no problems for Ireland is to make sure there is no border with NI. The ONLY way to do that is to make sure NI stays in the CU. That's why the backstop comes in. And because we have demonstrated that we cannot be trusted (Tory ministers threatening to withhold money that we legally owe if we don't get our way, suggestions floated that we could make it difficult for Ireland to import food from British ports if we don't get our way. Dominic Raab hinting that we'd turn off gas pipelines to Ireland if we don't get our way) the EU insists that we cannot unilaterally revoke the backstop.

WE have brought this shitstorm on our own heads. I don't get what the EU is supposed to do. Ignore all that and betray one of their members? To help the British PM?

[Boomstick]

BFYP

How are they supposed to move?

What's the mechanism to bring that about?

They have said from the get go that we do not get a trade deal with them that involves problems for Ireland. The ONLY way to ensure there are no problems for Ireland is to make sure there is no border with NI. The ONLY way to do that is to make sure NI stays in the CU. That's why the backstop comes in. And because we have demonstrated that we cannot be trusted (Tory ministers threatening to withhold money that we legally owe if we don't get our way, suggestions floated that we could make it difficult for Ireland to import food from British ports if we don't get our way. Dominic Raab hinting that we'd turn off gas pipelines to Ireland if we don't get our way) the EU insists that we cannot unilaterally revoke the backstop.

WE have brought this shitstorm on our own heads. I don't get what the EU is supposed to do. Ignore all that and betray one of their members? To help the British PM?

You answered your own question there .

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

BFYP

How are they supposed to move?

What's the mechanism to bring that about?

They have said from the get go that we do not get a trade deal with them that involves problems for Ireland. The ONLY way to ensure there are no problems for Ireland is to make sure there is no border with NI. The ONLY way to do that is to make sure NI stays in the CU. That's why the backstop comes in. And because we have demonstrated that we cannot be trusted (Tory ministers threatening to withhold money that we legally owe if we don't get our way, suggestions floated that we could make it difficult for Ireland to import food from British ports if we don't get our way. Dominic Raab hinting that we'd turn off gas pipelines to Ireland if we don't get our way) the EU insists that we cannot unilaterally revoke the backstop.

WE have brought this shitstorm on our own heads. I don't get what the EU is supposed to do. Ignore all that and betray one of their members? To help the British PM?

If I knew the answer to that very complex question I'd probably have a much more interesting and exciting career than I do....  But with doing nothing they're heading for no deal.  Perhaps that's what May will do.  Videos such as her arguing with EU officials yesterday actually show her in a positive light - they should be seizing on that as an opportunity.

I do wonder if May's way out may well be to head towards no deal - worrying but possible.

[RedJ]

You mean accounts doesn't thrill you to death?

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

 


 

[BillyStubbsTears]

BFYP
We are NOT going out with No Deal. Repeat to fade.

There are enough grown ups around to protect the country from that fantasy.

[The Red Baron]

BFYP
We are NOT going out with No Deal. Repeat to fade.

There are enough grown ups around to protect the country from that fantasy.

If that's the case somebody is going to have to revoke Article 50. May's deal won't fly, there isn't time to negotiate anything else (even assuming the EU were prepared to) and the default is we leave on 29th March.

Could Parliament vote to revoke A50 and instruct the Government to do so? Not really how our system works, is it?

May has brought her humiliation (the vote of confidence by her MPs and now the snub from Juncker) on herself by pulling the vote on Tuesday. At least we would have had some numbers, and she could have said to the EU "this is how far we are away from agreeing my deal."

[albie]

TRB,

There is a difference between revoking article 50, and seeking an extension.

Revoking Article 50 means choosing to remain, under the current terms. Here is a quick summary:
https://theconversation.com/article-50-can-be-revoked-heres-what-it-means-for-brexit-108522

I think that extending is more likely in the near term.

[Not Now Kato]

[bedale rover]

BFYP
We are NOT going out with No Deal. Repeat to fade.

There are enough grown ups around to protect the country from that fantasy.

If that's the case somebody is going to have to revoke Article 50. May's deal won't fly, there isn't time to negotiate anything else (even assuming the EU were prepared to) and the default is we leave on 29th March.

Could Parliament vote to revoke A50 and instruct the Government to do so? Not really how our system works, is it?

May has brought her humiliation (the vote of confidence by her MPs and now the snub from Juncker) on herself by pulling the vote on Tuesday. At least we would have had some numbers, and she could have said to the EU "this is how far we are away from agreeing my deal."

That's where the Dominic Grieve amendment comes in
He put an amendment to the Brexit bill that in the case of May's bill being defeated then the the commons will assert "their sovereignty" take control of the next phase and as there IS a majority in the house to remain hopefully they will revoke article 50

[Axholme Lion]

BFYP
We are NOT going out with No Deal. Repeat to fade.

There are enough grown ups around to protect the country from that fantasy.

If that's the case somebody is going to have to revoke Article 50. May's deal won't fly, there isn't time to negotiate anything else (even assuming the EU were prepared to) and the default is we leave on 29th March.

Could Parliament vote to revoke A50 and instruct the Government to do so? Not really how our system works, is it?

May has brought her humiliation (the vote of confidence by her MPs and now the snub from Juncker) on herself by pulling the vote on Tuesday. At least we would have had some numbers, and she could have said to the EU "this is how far we are away from agreeing my deal."

That's where the Dominic Grieve amendment comes in
He put an amendment to the Brexit bill that in the case of May's bill being defeated then the the commons will assert "their sovereignty" take control of the next phase and as there IS a majority in the house to remain hopefully they will revoke article 50

Very democratic. Just listen to yourself.

[MachoMadness]

That literally is democracy though...?

[RedJ]

Aye, they only like Parliament taking back its sovereignty when it's the way they want...

[Axholme Lion]

That literally is democracy though...?

Like keep voting until we get the 'right' result? This is 1984.

[Glyn_Wigley]

That literally is democracy though...?

Like keep voting until we get the 'right' result? This is 1984.

We got the right result at the 2017 General Election, didn't we? You know, the vote we had after the referendum?

[Axholme Lion]

That literally is democracy though...?

Like keep voting until we get the 'right' result? This is 1984.

We got the right result at the 2017 General Election, didn't we? You know, the vote we had after the referendum?

But a general election is every five years at least. How many referendums will we be having?

[IDM]

Don’t you see the irony there.?  A GE can be overturned in a few years but a brexit vote can’t..

So, we leave the EU and say 7-8 years downstream the public groundswell is that this was a mistake and we want back in.. how do we deal with that eh.?

[Donnywolf]

That literally is democracy though...?

Like keep voting until we get the 'right' result? This is 1984.

I hate to keep saying it - and said I wouldnt again - BUT in 1975 we voted in effect to join (Remain in) the Common Market after having a trial 2 years of Mmebership

10 times more people voted to Remain in 1975 (Majority was 33% - 66-33) than voted Leave in 2016 where 3 or 4% Majority said Leave 52-48 ish

That 75 Vote was never respected by those Tories and others who wanted us out - so apply the same to them ! Keep nagging and nagging till you get a Vote you like the result of

Cameron was STUPID to call a Referendum anyway - and worse for not saying for it to change it had to be voted for at least 60% of those voting

[RedJ]

And of course, as I keep saying... Nigel Farage himself said if he lost it would be unfinished business.

[Axholme Lion]

That literally is democracy though...?

Like keep voting until we get the 'right' result? This is 1984.

I hate to keep saying it - and said I wouldnt again - BUT in 1975 we voted in effect to join (Remain in) the Common Market after having a trial 2 years of Mmebership

10 times more people voted to Remain in 1975 (Majority was 33% - 66-33) than voted Leave in 2016 where 3 or 4% Majority said Leave 52-48 ish

That 75 Vote was never respected by those Tories and others who wanted us out - so apply the same to them ! Keep nagging and nagging till you get a Vote you like the result of

Cameron was STUPID to call a Referendum anyway - and worse for not saying for it to change it had to be voted for at least 60% of those voting

Fair enough we'll have another referendum in another 40 years if the human race still exists.

[Donnywolf]

I will be on a Hat trick - Voting for losing side three times in a Row maybe ?

[Glyn_Wigley]

That literally is democracy though...?

Like keep voting until we get the 'right' result? This is 1984.

We got the right result at the 2017 General Election, didn't we? You know, the vote we had after the referendum?

But a general election is every five years at least. How many referendums will we be having?

Doesn't matter. Each electiop supercedes the previous one, regardless of the length of time between them. That makes the 2017 election more relevant than any before it.

[Axholme Lion]

That literally is democracy though...?

Like keep voting until we get the 'right' result? This is 1984.

We got the right result at the 2017 General Election, didn't we? You know, the vote we had after the referendum?

But a general election is every five years at least. How many referendums will we be having?

Doesn't matter. Each electiop supercedes the previous one, regardless of the length of time between them. That makes the 2017 election more relevant than any before it.

So if there was another referendum and remain won by 51% to 49% what would that tell us and where would we go from there?