Brexit deal

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wilts
Our guest from London appears to be one of these people who thinks that a group of countries with a combined ANNUAL GDP of £14 trillion will shite it and offer us whatever we demand if we threaten to withhold £39 billion spread over several years.

It's a quaintly amusing thought, but you DO have to hope he's got a grown up or two to look after him.

[Glyn_Wigley]

When it's better for EU country's businesses for their UK competitors to be outside the SM/CU, I really can't see why they'll bottle anything. As for the 39 big ones, they just won't give us a trade deal until we've paid up. Neither will anyone else while we show two-facedness on such a grand scale.

[SydneyRover]

''Don’t expect Brexit to give us a British Alexander Hamilton''

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/31/brexit-british-alexander-hamilton-revolutionaries


PS if you're mistakenly pissed off over thinking we are being badly treated
by the EU, you ain't seen nothing yet if we do leave.

What a load of twaddle

The point I'm trying to make here, well or not is that if anyone is thinking we will be in a better bargaining position with the EU following any type of brexit is going to sadly disappointed, happy for you to explain how this will not be true Wilts.

Well I could have a go Sydney but I would only be playing devil's advocate as I think you are replying to a post by Sproty?

Thanks Wilts, apologies, Sporty please step up and answer the question, or I suppose anyone?

[SydneyRover]

A car and three passengers to Calais please.

Would you like fries with that?

[BillyStubbsTears]

What I want to know is, if I order two large passenger ferries for collection, on a Monday, do I get free garlic bread?

[Glyn_Wigley]

Garlic? Bloody forrin muck!

[Axholme Lion]

Wilts
Our guest from London appears to be one of these people who thinks that a group of countries with a combined ANNUAL GDP of £14 trillion will shite it and offer us whatever we demand if we threaten to withhold £39 billion spread over several years.

It's a quaintly amusing thought, but you DO have to hope he's got a grown up or two to look after him.

No, I roam the streets on my own. Care in the community I think it's called.

[BillyStubbsTears]

You know, I'm sure this sort of shit used to be a resigning matter for Cabinet Secretaries.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Hayley_Barlow/status/1080528253075537920

f**k me, what HAVE we become?

[Axholme Lion]

You know, I'm sure this sort of shit used to be a resigning matter for Cabinet Secretaries.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Hayley_Barlow/status/1080528253075537920

f**k me, what HAVE we become?

The calibre of most modern politicians on all sides is abysmal compared to years gone by. Where are the Enoch Powell and Tony Benn of today?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Unfortunately, we have far too many egomaniac gobshites like those two.

What we are lacking is the sensible, logical, competent sort who make Government work.

I saw a video of Tony Benn recently, from the 1975 referendum campaign. He reminded me of no-one from the modern era so much as Boris Johnson. Smooth, suave, bathing in self-confidence and with his patrician ease, spinning a line that I know for a fact to be a lie.

We've always had his sort. Politics attracts them. We need more diligence and less ego.

[SydneyRover]

Unfortunately, we have far too many egomaniac gobshites like those two.

What we are lacking is the sensible, logical, competent sort who make Government work.

I saw a video of Tony Benn recently, from the 1975 referendum campaign. He reminded me of no-one from the modern era so much as Boris Johnson. Smooth, suave, bathing in self-confidence and with his patrician ease, spinning a line that I know for a fact to be a lie.

We've always had his sort. Politics attracts them. We need more diligence and less ego.
[/quote
BST, we have plenty of dills we need more gence to make it work

[Axholme Lion]

Serious question here, not joking! If there was to be REF2, what other than a bit of short term financial ease would you say to persuade me to change my mind, bearing in my serious worries over immigration etc?

[BillyStubbsTears]

"Short-term financial ease"  meaning "the country not losing several trillion pounds worth of economic activity over the next couple of decades"?

I'd have thought that would be enough for starters.

[Glyn_Wigley]

"Short-term financial ease"  meaning "the country not losing several trillion pounds worth of economic activity over the next couple of decades"?

I'd have thought that would be enough for starters.

But no-one will want to be an immigrant to a country that's gone down the toilet!

[Axholme Lion]

"Short-term financial ease"  meaning "the country not losing several trillion pounds worth of economic activity over the next couple of decades"?

I'd have thought that would be enough for starters.

You say that but it's not as if the Germans are going to stop selling motors here and the like is it, life will still go on.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Give me f**king strength!

Yes. But they will sell fewer to us, and we will sell fewer of our exports to them. Because we are choosing to make trade harder and more expensive.

And EVERY reliable economist who has studied this says that the net effect will be to scrub several percent off our GDP for many, many years to come.

What is it about those predictions that make you and your like determined to ignore them? Why is the response always "We'll be alright"?

If a mechanic told you your engine will blow up if you do 60 down the motorway, would you jump in the car and floor it?

If a doctor told you that your drinking was going to kill you, would you go and order a crate of scotch?

[Glyn_Wigley]

"Short-term financial ease"  meaning "the country not losing several trillion pounds worth of economic activity over the next couple of decades"?

I'd have thought that would be enough for starters.

You say that but it's not as if the Germans are going to stop selling motors here and the like is it, life will still go on.

The UK are going to have an advantage over the Germans when selling cars in the UK because German cars will be 10% more expensive in the UK.

In return, the Germans are going to have an advantage over the UK when selling cars in 27 other countries because UK cars will be 10% more expensive in all those 27 countries.

And you think they're worried? Jesus wept.

[albie]

Only just seen the post from BST saying that discussion of the reasons for Brexit is straying into "tangentials".

It seems to me that until you can understand how we got to be in this position, we are less likely to be able to find a reasonable way out of it.

I still hope someone will step up with an idea of what a sensible left field response would be to the current impasse.

Assuming May gets the bumsrush next week when her plan is voted down, what happens next?
Disgruntled Tories defect to Indy's, refusing the whip?
No operational majority to allow government business through the HoC?

A view from outside is sometimes useful:
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/british-brexit-debate-democratic-opportunity-by-yanis-varoufakis-2018-12

At least Varoufakis tries to set out a response to the real kerfuffle behind the conundrum.
Pick and mix from that then!

[wilts rover]

"Short-term financial ease"  meaning "the country not losing several trillion pounds worth of economic activity over the next couple of decades"?

I'd have thought that would be enough for starters.

You say that but it's not as if the Germans are going to stop selling motors here and the like is it, life will still go on.

The UK are going to have an advantage over the Germans when selling cars in the UK because German cars will be 10% more expensive in the UK.

In return, the Germans are going to have an advantage over the UK when selling cars in 27 other countries because UK cars will be 10% more expensive in all those 27 countries.

And you think they're worried? Jesus wept.

Actually it will be more than that Glyn, that's 10% on the cost of finished cars. The British motor industry uses a lot of parts not manufactured in the UK and all these will also accrue duty, so it will cost a lot more to manufacture cars in the UK. According to the SMM a no deal Brexit will cost the motor industry £2.7 billion with a 10% import tariff. Then another £1.8 billion on exports.
https://www.smmt.co.uk/industry-topics/brexit/

That's why Billy's favourite economist, Patrick Minford, said we should abandon the motor industry in the UK as we did with coal mining and iron and steel.
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/devastating-future-welsh-manufacturing-predicted-15323164

So actually AL is correct the Germans' will still sell cars in the UK after Brexit, probably more of them, as there wont be any British cars to buy.

[scawsby steve]

Unfortunately, we have far too many egomaniac gobshites like those two.

What we are lacking is the sensible, logical, competent sort who make Government work.

I saw a video of Tony Benn recently, from the 1975 referendum campaign. He reminded me of no-one from the modern era so much as Boris Johnson. Smooth, suave, bathing in self-confidence and with his patrician ease, spinning a line that I know for a fact to be a lie.

We've always had his sort. Politics attracts them. We need more diligence and less ego.

Billy, you perplex me; you're obviously a great intellect, and an absolute expert on economics and financial matters. However, what are you politically?; are you a socialist?, a liberalist?, a democrat?; what are you?, because I can tell you one thing, I've been on this planet a lot longer than you, and I know for a certain fact that Tony Benn was and is a working class hero to almost every genuine socialist in this country, who would regard opponents of his as Tory thinking people.

Would I be right in assuming you're a great fan of the 3 stooges, Blair, Campbell, and Mandelson?; if so,  that would explain a lot.

[Glyn_Wigley]

"Short-term financial ease"  meaning "the country not losing several trillion pounds worth of economic activity over the next couple of decades"?

I'd have thought that would be enough for starters.

You say that but it's not as if the Germans are going to stop selling motors here and the like is it, life will still go on.

The UK are going to have an advantage over the Germans when selling cars in the UK because German cars will be 10% more expensive in the UK.

In return, the Germans are going to have an advantage over the UK when selling cars in 27 other countries because UK cars will be 10% more expensive in all those 27 countries.

And you think they're worried? Jesus wept.

Actually it will be more than that Glyn, that's 10% on the cost of finished cars. The British motor industry uses a lot of parts not manufactured in the UK and all these will also accrue duty, so it will cost a lot more to manufacture cars in the UK. According to the SMM a no deal Brexit will cost the motor industry £2.7 billion with a 10% import tariff. Then another £1.8 billion on exports.
https://www.smmt.co.uk/industry-topics/brexit/

That's why Billy's favourite economist, Patrick Minford, said we should abandon the motor industry in the UK as we did with coal mining and iron and steel.
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/devastating-future-welsh-manufacturing-predicted-15323164

So actually AL is correct the Germans' will still sell cars in the UK after Brexit, probably more of them, as there wont be any British cars to buy.

Importing parts to be fitted to cars that are then exported in their turn doesn't cost any duty if done under IPR. But you have to maintain the audit trail and paperwork for it.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Scawsby

I put myself in the pragmatic Left wing of the Labour party. Way to the left of Blair (I resigned my membership because of him).

Benn was, in my opinion, a dangerous egomaniac who did phenomenal harm to the Labour movement and the working class. He, more than anyone [1] was responsible for driving ideological wedges through the Left in the 1970s and 80s. The collapse of Labour as an election-winning unit in the early 80s, meant that Thatcher had unrestrained power to smash the Unions and the industrial North.

Benn is to a great extent to blame for that.

And that's before you look at his ridiculous approach to foreign policy. Read his diaries as I have. He was smitten by Ceacescu as a role model. He thought what he was doing g in Romania was a model for socialists. It was naive idiocy like that which helped keep psychopaths like Ceacescu in power.

For me, the Labour party must first of all be electable. Everything else comes secondary. Blair was way too far to the right and I argued that aggressively at the time. But I'd rather have a Blair-led Labour party in power than a Benn (or Corbyn) led party failing to win power.

To me, that is blindingly obvious logic. I'm regularly surprised how many people on the Left don't share it. To them, ideological purity is the number 1 requirement. Electability comes secondary.

[1] David Owen shares an equal proportion of the blame. Another patrician-class egomaniac who put his own beliefs and ambitions above the wider requirements of the Labour movement. 

[BillyStubbsTears]

Albie

If you're going to find a way out of this mess, you've got to start by putting aside starry-eyed ideas that there's going to be some sort of revolution on the Right that will bring this Govt down.

It. Won't. Happen.

Whatever happens between now and 29 March, there will be a Tory Govt propped up by the DUP in April, and for the following 3 years.

Labour supporters need to get that I to their heads sharpish. Because if Brexit DOES happen, post-Brexit Britain is going to be shaped by a right wing Govt.

You navel gaze all you want about why we got here and how we get out. In the meantime, the future direction of our country will be being fixed for you.

Number 1 priority. Bar none. Stop a right-wing Brexit. Everything else, including a Corbyn election victory comes a distant second to that. Because if you DON'T stop that, there is nothing that a future Lab Govt can do to repair the damage.

[albie]

BST,

All offers on the table are right wing Brexits.
I would prefer to stop it. Only the government can!

You may be right that the Tories will plough on, under a new leader.
If they are able to deliver a working program going forward....that remains to be seen.

The likes of Johnson and crew will pitch for a deregulated future, in the tax haven model.
No-one wants to see that, apart from vulture bankers.

So if you don't want a right wing Brexit, what do you want instead.
 
Yes, I know you want ref2, but the government have got to make that happen.
Why should they, unless they have no choice because they can't operate without a working majority?

If you think that there is nothing a future Labour Government could do, after Brexit, then abandon ship sharpish, Lad.
That is why I posted the Varoufakis piece...it is about alternatives either side of March deadline.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Albie

You've lost me.

There's not going to be Ref2 because it requires the Govt to decide on that.

So instead, you suggest we take up Varoufakis's plan to put the whole thing on hold while we have a national discussion on how to sort out 300 years worth of constitutional problems?

Lovely theory. What's the mechanism by which it comes about in practice?

[wilts rover]

"Short-term financial ease"  meaning "the country not losing several trillion pounds worth of economic activity over the next couple of decades"?

I'd have thought that would be enough for starters.

You say that but it's not as if the Germans are going to stop selling motors here and the like is it, life will still go on.

The UK are going to have an advantage over the Germans when selling cars in the UK because German cars will be 10% more expensive in the UK.

In return, the Germans are going to have an advantage over the UK when selling cars in 27 other countries because UK cars will be 10% more expensive in all those 27 countries.

And you think they're worried? Jesus wept.

Actually it will be more than that Glyn, that's 10% on the cost of finished cars. The British motor industry uses a lot of parts not manufactured in the UK and all these will also accrue duty, so it will cost a lot more to manufacture cars in the UK. According to the SMM a no deal Brexit will cost the motor industry £2.7 billion with a 10% import tariff. Then another £1.8 billion on exports.
https://www.smmt.co.uk/industry-topics/brexit/

That's why Billy's favourite economist, Patrick Minford, said we should abandon the motor industry in the UK as we did with coal mining and iron and steel.
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/devastating-future-welsh-manufacturing-predicted-15323164

So actually AL is correct the Germans' will still sell cars in the UK after Brexit, probably more of them, as there wont be any British cars to buy.

Importing parts to be fitted to cars that are then exported in their turn doesn't cost any duty if done under IPR. But you have to maintain the audit trail and paperwork for it.

Thanks Glyn. So when the government said this about components in their impact assessments were they referring to spare parts or bits to be fitted to cars only for sale in UK:

On departure, in the absence of an agreement on trade, this would mean a reversion to World Trade Organisation (WTO) tariffs. These are 10 per cent for cars and, on average, 4.5 per cent for vehicle components.
https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmselect/cmbeis/379/37905.htm

[Glyn_Wigley]

"Short-term financial ease"  meaning "the country not losing several trillion pounds worth of economic activity over the next couple of decades"?

I'd have thought that would be enough for starters.

You say that but it's not as if the Germans are going to stop selling motors here and the like is it, life will still go on.

The UK are going to have an advantage over the Germans when selling cars in the UK because German cars will be 10% more expensive in the UK.

In return, the Germans are going to have an advantage over the UK when selling cars in 27 other countries because UK cars will be 10% more expensive in all those 27 countries.

And you think they're worried? Jesus wept.

Actually it will be more than that Glyn, that's 10% on the cost of finished cars. The British motor industry uses a lot of parts not manufactured in the UK and all these will also accrue duty, so it will cost a lot more to manufacture cars in the UK. According to the SMM a no deal Brexit will cost the motor industry £2.7 billion with a 10% import tariff. Then another £1.8 billion on exports.
https://www.smmt.co.uk/industry-topics/brexit/

That's why Billy's favourite economist, Patrick Minford, said we should abandon the motor industry in the UK as we did with coal mining and iron and steel.
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/devastating-future-welsh-manufacturing-predicted-15323164

So actually AL is correct the Germans' will still sell cars in the UK after Brexit, probably more of them, as there wont be any British cars to buy.

Importing parts to be fitted to cars that are then exported in their turn doesn't cost any duty if done under IPR. But you have to maintain the audit trail and paperwork for it.

Thanks Glyn. So when the government said this about components in their impact assessments were they referring to spare parts or bits to be fitted to cars only for sale in UK:

On departure, in the absence of an agreement on trade, this would mean a reversion to World Trade Organisation (WTO) tariffs. These are 10 per cent for cars and, on average, 4.5 per cent for vehicle components.
https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmselect/cmbeis/379/37905.htm

Yep, anything intended to stay in the country is liable to Customs Duty. As for the parts intended for re-export you have to know that that is the intention at the time they cross the Customs Border as the declaration has to be direct into the IPR regime, so you can't import something, pay Duty on it to put it into free circulation and then try and claim the Duty back if you subsequently re-export after that.

PS We caught a lot of people out who were trying it on when there was a craze for quad bikes about ten years ago. A lot of them tried to get away with declaring them as motorcycles at 8% duty. But motorcycles have two wheels - quadbikes have four, so are motor vehicles at 10%.

[albie]

BST,

I did not suggest taking up the Varafakis plan.

I do think some of the issues raised in the article need to have a discussion on the left, in preparation for Brexit, or after any Brexit takes place.

As I said, there is no clear mechanism to deliver Ref2, so it is off the table until the circumstances allow it to happen.

Not sure that you really understand political strategy.
You hold strong views about where it should go, but no SatNav to help get there.

[BillyStubbsTears]

For what it's worth, my take is that the Varoufakis link.is juvenile, self-indulgent nonsense. There is zero possibility in the current climate that that approach is going to be put into action in the next 2.5 months. It's Yannis doing what Yannis does. Showing how clever and strategic he is, and giving himself space to shake his head sagely when other people have to deal with the world as it actually is.

Which brings us back to the real world.

Why will there be a Ref2? Because that's the real world path of least resistance.

May's deal will be defeated.

Parliament will not allow us to leave with No Deal.

Tribal loyalties will prevent May's Govt from falling.

So we get to mid Feb and there is one and only one option left.

The Govt will ask for A.50 to be suspended while we ask the country to give a clear steer to a deadlocked House, in an unambiguous STV referendum.

There is no other credible outcome.

The political manoeuvring between now and then is all about who takes the credit/avoids the blame for that outcome.

If I'm going to be kind to Corbyn, I'll say that he is mistakenly trying to demonstrate to Leave Labour supporters that he's not forsaking them, and missing the fact that he's pissing off a much larger number of Labour Remainers. But that's being kind. My gut says he feels one of his lifelong political aims, getting the UK out of the EU, slipping through his fingers.

[wilts rover]

Thanks Glyn, who would have thought information on customs duties would be so interesting.