Brexit deal

[Glyn_Wigley]

Thanks Glyn, who would have thought information on customs duties would be so interesting.

I've just re-read my last post and had to change a can for a can't that I miswrote.

As for Customs being interesting, don't get me started on the time I secured £12mill in Duty when every scrap importer in the country (who all happened to be in Sheffield!) was using the wrong commodity code on scrap titanium. It's riveting, honest.

[wilts rover]

Billy I reckon you are totally wrong about Corbyn (now there's a surprise) he is not trying to appeal to Labour Leave voters - he is trying to appeal to Leave voters in their 35 marginal Tory target seats. We have said many times that the polls show Labour has poor support among Leave voters - and thats who he needs to win over if he wants to win a snap GE.

I am also unconvinced that the government would call a referendum. If May has been consistent about one thing (and there is very little she has been consistent about) it's that she won't support another referendum/People's Vote. Every week at PMQ's she rules this out - while also accusing Corbyn of wanting one to betray the result of the first one.

Rumour on the internet has it that she will be on the Marr show on Sunday talking about the NHS and her funding commitment to it. Why on earth, on the eve of the most important vote in the HoC for 80 years is she going on a major political talk show to discuss the NHS?

Another rumour has it that returning officers across the UK have been put on standby.

All of which probably mean you shouldn't listen to rumours unless you are in a Fleetwood Mac covers band....

[albie]

This might be a reason why BST is batting a sticky wicket here:
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2019/01/poll-conservative-members-shows-why-people-s-vote-so-unlikely

As I keep saying, the numbers matter.....as much in the Tory Party as in the HoC.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wilts

1) I cannot see what possible reason May would have for calling a GE.

2) I guess, at a push, she might threaten to do so to bring some of her rebels into line, but then for the most part they are not stupid and would refer to point 1.

3) Regarding her calling Ref2, you display a touching faith in May's steadfastness when she has gone on record. This is the woman who said there'd be no GE in 2017. The woman who said the vote on her deal wasn't going to be pulled. Her being set against Ref2 to date means bugger all. When she has no other option, she will call it.

4) As with every other supporter of Corbyn's Brexit approach [1] you are focussing on him brilliantly wooing Leave supporters but ignoring the great big Woolly Mammoth in the room. There was a YG poll before Xmas. Lab were on 36%. They then asked "If there was a GE and Lab went into it with a policy to support Ref2, how would you vote?" The  result was Lab 36%.

They THEN asked: If there was a GE and Lab went into it supporting Brexit, how would you vote?" The result was Lab 22%.

The fact that Corbyn went on record days later saying his policy was to push for a GE at which he would supporting Brexit was quite astonishing.

As in so many things though, we're not allowed to question the wisdom of the Blessed Jeremy the Infallible.

[1] Speaking of which, I see the meme of choice among worshippers at the Church of the Latter Day Jeremy is "Love Corbyn. Hate Brexit." It's the equivalent of Donny fans in the Conference days saying "Love Carl Alford. Hate Never Scoring."

[BillyStubbsTears]

Albie.

That article ignores two points.

1) There is a sizeable group of Tory MPs who are so ideologically anti-Brexit that they would undoubtedly ignore the party base. Think Soubry, Grieve, Wollaston, Clarke et al.  With a united opposition, there'd be enough votes to call for Ref2.

2) It's amazing, the things that become politically possible, nay, attractive, when every other avenue has been closed off.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Getting serious folks.

https://m.facebook.com/1498276767163730/posts/2248533055471427/

[SydneyRover]

There's a rumour doing the rounds that May has a cunning plan to get around the backstop, she's going to use one of bojo's old brainfarts and build a garden bridge direct from Dublin to Calais.

[BillyStubbsTears]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46772601

Looks like the vote on May's Deal isn't going ahead then...

[RedJ]

Clusterf**k doesn't even come close to describing this whole situation anymore.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Rumour this morning was that Labour are considering abstaining on the vote on May's deal, meaning it will pass.

Idea is that the DUP would then vote against Govt on a No Confidence vote, hence forcing a GE.

It's a thought I suppose. But if Corbyn pulls that stunt, then goes into the GE saying Labour will implement Brexit, Labour will be annihilated. They'll make Foot 1983 look like a mild setback.

[Filo]

Rumour this morning was that Labour are considering abstaining on the vote on May's deal, meaning it will pass.

Idea is that the DUP would then vote against Govt on a No Confidence vote, hence forcing a GE.

It's a thought I suppose. But if Corbyn pulls that stunt, then goes into the GE saying Labour will implement Brexit, Labour will be annihilated. They'll make Foot 1983 look like a mild setback.

Too much personal politics in play for my liking

[BillyStubbsTears]

It's not personal Filo.

It's ideological.

Corbyn has an obsession. That the EU is a Very Bad Thing. And that we could have True Socialism in the UK and we could do fine outside the EU.

It's utter f**king bobbins, but he tends to move in circles where he only gets confirmation of what he believes. And folk who challenge him are called, NeoLibs, Blairites, Red Tories, Centrists,  (Corbynistas...help me out here... Have I missed some?)

[Donnywolf]

Tricks , sleights of hands - promises broken. I hope the electorate can be persuaded after this debacle is over one way or another that there HAS to be a better way than the way we are "represented" now

I know that is no part of B****t discussions but surely it should be the nxt "big thing" though I can seriously believe either of the big 2 will move anywhere quickly as they have the most to lose of course

[BillyStubbsTears]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-england-kent-46775722?__twitter_impression=true

Let me get this right. You claim you are late for work because the Govt has decided to test just how f**ked the rush hour traffic will be if they release 87 additional trucks onto an already busy road? And you say they are doing it as contingency planning for a scenario that everyone knows will not happen because it is imbecillicly stupid to even contemplate it?

Put the other one son. Wages docked for arriving late.

[Donnywolf]

The whole thing is laughable - but not in a good way !

[SydneyRover]

The whole thing is laughable - but not in a good way !

It's a desperate scare tactic just like having troops on standby.

[MachoMadness]

I'm sure, when we crash out with no deal, there'll only be 80 lorries wanting to cross the channel. I'm sure none of them will want to do it at rush hour either. Waste of time.

[Axholme Lion]

I'm sure, when we crash out with no deal, there'll only be 80 lorries wanting to cross the channel. I'm sure none of them will want to do it at rush hour either. Waste of time.

The terminology 'crash out without a deal' is rampant scare mongering.

[BillyStubbsTears]

What term would you use?

Given that we're  81 days away from leaving, and so little prep has been do e for a No Deal scenario that the Health Secretary is scuttling round Europe buying every spare industrial freezer he can find for us to be able to stockpile short lifetime medicines which will get blocked in tailbacks at ports?

And the Transport Secretary is giving contracts to increase shipping g freight capacity to a company that has never operated a ship, to operate ships from a port that doesn't have the physical capacity to handle container ferries, or the road network to move large numbers of lorries away from the port.

And then there's the fact that we don't have enough customs staff to process the new paperwork that would be required for goods moving between the UK and EU. Or enough vets to process the admin of live animals crossing a customs and market border.

And the fact that the motor industry, working to Just In Time processes, have said that any delays at ports to the shipment of parts to/from the EU will totally screw up their production.

And then there's the fact that if we leave with No Deal, you suddenly have a hard border in Ireland to police.

All that to sort out in 11 and a half weeks. By a Govt that couldn't even rustle up the 150 trucks that it wanted to use in Operation Brock this morning.

And you reckon a No Deal scenario wouldn't be "crashing out" of the EU?

Go on then. Tell us why it would all be smoothly handled.

[RedJ]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/07/may-will-win-vote-on-her-deal-on-15-january-says-brexit-minister

The man's delusional.

Also - who the f**k is he?

[Filo]

I’m not sure where this notion of a second vote comes from should the first vote fail. To use Maybots mantra, would n’t a second vote betray the will of Parliament?

[Tarkovsky_Mikluzhkin]

The reason a no deal brexit is going to be a glorious rip roaring success leading to a 1000 year long utopian society rather than "crashing out" is simple.

The power of positive thinking Billy THE POWER OF POSITIVE THINKING.If we all believe its going to work then it will. Its obvious really?
I dont know if you've seen "Field of dreams" with Kevin Costner but its a bit like that (just without the stupid foreign rounders for girls bullsh*t). We all just close our eyes and repeat "theres no place like home...." over and over until everything works itself out.

The only way it can fail is if people like you, Gary Lineker and HSBC start being all negative and ruin the delicate spiritual balance with all you "facts" and "logical consequences". That stuff massively p*sses off the good vibes and makes them angry bad vibes and then and only then could things turn sour but that'll be your fault not mine.

Be a team player lets all together on the count of three think positive brexit thoughts and let the cosmic world guide us to a greater collective self. #Ivotedleavebutitsdefinitelyeveryoneelsesfaultwhatshappeningnow #noseriouslyitdefinitelydefinitelyis
#iamnotresponsiblesodontneedtolearnanylessonssofeckoffhippytwits

[albie]

A second vote on the May deal is not possible under parliamentary rules.

The proposal can only return if it has been significantly revised, something the EU has already ruled out.

What is likely is failure of the May deal, followed by amendments tabled under the Grieve amendment.
Horse trading will then take place on the least damaging consensus according to where the votes lie.

My bet is "Norway Plus" emerging from the fog, and Article 50 (March deadline) being postponed.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Britain 2019.

https://t.co/4HUyQECv5y

Going well, int it?

[Glyn_Wigley]

I'm sure, when we crash out with no deal, there'll only be 80 lorries wanting to cross the channel. I'm sure none of them will want to do it at rush hour either. Waste of time.

The terminology 'crash out without a deal' is rampant scare mongering.

The terminology 'scare mongering' is rampant sticking your fingers in your ears going 'la-la-la-la-la-la-la' mongering.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Britain 2019.

https://t.co/4HUyQECv5y

Going well, int it?

Idiots frankly, just like those having a go at Jacob Rees Mogg were.  Disagree all you like but don't cross a line.  Just prosecute them FFS.

[bobjimwilly]

not related to the extreme-right wing calling an mp a nazi (irony really is lost on them),  but I thought this article was quite amusing: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/04/chris-grayling-brexit-pizza-ferry-company-zero-ships?CMP=share_btn_fb&fbclid=IwAR2QYcBsB2mTCejEC9ib4TBVvndO7qv-6jxPq2cqwBp6a53ixFA1xPTtkwI

[BillyStubbsTears]

Just been listening to this while driving to a meeting.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0001xs9

Plus ça change, as they say.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Also, fascinating to hear the non-British that is the Brexit Secretary on R4 this morning.

He was asked half a dozen times if he could deny that officials had been discussing with the EU extending A50 beyond 29 March. Half a dozen times he said, "Err...I can confirm that I haven't been having those discussions".

So, we're extending A50 then...

[The Red Baron]

Also, fascinating to hear the non-British that is the Brexit Secretary on R4 this morning.

He was asked half a dozen times if he could deny that officials had been discussing with the EU extending A50 beyond 29 March. Half a dozen times he said, "Err...I can confirm that I haven't been having those discussions".

So, we're extending A50 then...

I am surprised that any serious politician would take the job of Brexit Secretary while May is PM. He's basically a glorified office boy.