Brexit deal

[BillyStubbsTears]

On what planet are ERG members going to vote to give Corbyn a shot at No10?

When it looks like Brexit is going to die and a General Election is the only way they can see of keeping it alive.

Except this isn't about Brexit.

This is about the heart and soul and future direction of the Tory party.

I don't for one minute believe that the ERG members actually think we would be fine and dandy and economically stronger with the no deal, WTO-terms Brexit. There is no one in the world who has studied the issue for 5 minutes who believes that. It would be economically devastating.

So my take is that the ERG don't want a no deal Brexit. They want to be able to stick the knife into the Tories who stop us getting a no deal Brexit. The majority of the Tory party membership DO want a hard Brexit, because they are ancient Little Empire-ists. So they will hate the Tories who come up with any sort of deal less than a hard Brexit. The ERG want to buttress their position in the party with those people, who are the ones who will choose the next leader. They want to take over the party. That's their aim. Brexit is a method.

If this analysis is right, there is no benefit whatsoever for the ERG to give Corbyn a shot at No 10.   

[bobjimwilly]

Corbyn's letter to Theresa May re: no deal: https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1085892746668331008

[SydneyRover]

Mr Corbyn is missing a good opportunity here by not attending the cross party talks.
IF the talks resulted in a deal being struck which would be acceptable to Parliament and more importantly, to the EU, then Corbyn and the Labour Party members would always be able to say that it was them who got the thing sorted out.

I think he will collect his toys up anyway soon and join in the chat, he has no option really.

JC is just operating a week in front of everyone else by trying to get May to take no deal off the table. Parliament will force her to do that in the next week or so. May just shows no signs of any forward thinking or flexibility.

Exactly. He wants May to publicly alienate the ERG so they'll turn against her even more.

It beggars belief that blame is being laid at the feet of JC, since Cameroon very wisely thought that he'd rather be judged a failed weasel than a weaseling failure and resigned the EU have stated that the will of the 27 EU nations will take precedence over some crazy wish list emanating from an increasingly desperate and selfish conservative party. May has continually stated against all wisdom that she would be able to cut a deal where there was no hope and still is no hope and has only recently in further desperation offered some paltry workers rights hoping to garner public opinion. I still think that if Britain moves to a GE, JC will have to resign because he cannot contemplate a second vote under which labor will be deserted by the younger voters and annihilated at the polls.

''What is the Brexit deal on the table? Theresa May's controversial EU withdrawal agreement''

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/theresa-may-eu-brexit-deal-key-points-withdrawal-agreement-a4038526.html

[RedJ]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/17/may-will-stick-to-brexit-principles-in-cross-party-talks-says-no-10

So what exactly is the point of holding talks if you're not actually going to budge on anything meaningful?

[SydneyRover]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/17/may-will-stick-to-brexit-principles-in-cross-party-talks-says-no-10

So what exactly is the point of holding talks if you're not actually going to budge on anything meaningful?

It's almost as stupid as continually crossing the channel asking for more when there is no more on offer.

[BillyStubbsTears]

As I said the other day, I'm starting to seriously question May's mental health. She seems utterly detached from the reality and critical nature of the situation.

[SydneyRover]

As I said the other day, I'm starting to seriously question May's mental health. She seems utterly detached from the reality and critical nature of the situation.

Is there any chance we can have her certified?

[SydneyRover]

As I said the other day, I'm starting to seriously question May's mental health. She seems utterly detached from the reality and critical nature of the situation.

Is there any chance we can have her certified?

''Business leaders urge Theresa May to introduce new laws on mental health first aid in the workplace''

This is a big hint?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/11/18/business-leaders-urge-theresa-may-introduce-new-laws-mental/

[GazLaz]

As I said the other day, I'm starting to seriously question May's mental health. She seems utterly detached from the reality and critical nature of the situation.

Is there any chance we can have her certified?

''Business leaders urge Theresa May to introduce new laws on mental health first aid in the workplace''

This is a big hint?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/11/18/business-leaders-urge-theresa-may-introduce-new-laws-mental/

My company is big on mental health first aid and I’ve done the course. I can categorically say, there is no hope for Mrs May.

[Axholme Lion]

If there is a GE would you still vote the same way? (This is mainly aimed at the people who voted to leave as I can’t imagine the remainers have changed there mind) I voted leave, and I’d still vote the same way my self

Am not sure you can equate the 2 mate. I voted leave, would again (though the monumental f**k sauce they are making of it casts some doubts on the process) but I wouldn't vote the same in a GE as I did last time as I couldnt back either main party. I have concluded that no one in the house is interested in anything else than lining their own pockets and those of their principle backers ( big business / unions)

Me too. All the major parties are professional politicians playing a game and getting rich at our expense. I think half of them don't even care which party they represent as long as they can keep their snouts in the trough. If we don't get a proper Brexit as we voted for, then in future I will either not bother to vote, or will vote for a more extreme party that actually has proper beliefs.

[Filo]

I said this on twitter yesterday, in many of Country’s if their Government was acting like ours they’d either be on the brink of civil war or a coup would have teken place

[The Red Baron]

I said this on twitter yesterday, in many of Country’s if their Government was acting like ours they’d either be on the brink of civil war or a coup would have teken place

Where's old Ollie Cromwell when you need him?

[Boomstick]

As I said the other day, I'm starting to seriously question May's mental health. She seems utterly detached from the reality and critical nature of the situation.

She's  trying to band together MP's across the political spectrum, to negotiate a deal that delivers on the RF .
Something JC is childishly refusing to do, in the vain hope of staying relevant.
The irony is, the only way he can be relevant is by engaging in discussions for the good of the country
I admire her courage and staying power.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Boomstick.

Which part of her saying that she will not countenance making major changes to her deal, a day after the biggest Govt defeat in British history is her "trying to band together MP's across the political spectrum, to negotiate a deal"?

[Boomstick]

So your saying these discussions that are happening, aren't happening?

[Glyn_Wigley]

So your saying these discussions that are happening, aren't happening?

If you can call something like :

"What will you compromise on, PM?"

"Nothing, you have to vote for my deal"

"Goodbye"

as a discussion, then yes, they are taking place.

[Boomstick]

So your saying these discussions that are happening, aren't happening?

If you can call something like :

"What will you compromise on, PM?"

"Nothing, you have to vote for my deal"

"Goodbye"

as a discussion, then yes, they are taking place.

Oh, you've been invited to them have you?

[wilts rover]

Hound

It's THAT simple. May has brought this on us by deciding that Brexit meant leaving the CU. Labour says Brexit does not require us to leave the CU (although admittedly, Corbyn had to be dragged to that position by wiser heads).

You keep saying this but it's just not true. Starmer and Corbyn announced together that a CU was official Labour policy in August 2017. Starmer in the Observer and Corbyn on the Marr show.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/aug/27/labour-jeremy-corbyn-brexit-policy-change

Agreed with everything else you had to say about the policy tho.

[Glyn_Wigley]

So your saying these discussions that are happening, aren't happening?

If you can call something like :

"What will you compromise on, PM?"

"Nothing, you have to vote for my deal"

"Goodbye"

as a discussion, then yes, they are taking place.

Oh, you've been invited to them have you?

That's what been reported by the BBC as happening. The other parties (LibDems, SNP, Plaid Cymru, Green), although they have met with her have also asked May to take No Deal off the table before talking and she's refused, so end of discussion.

What's your version of what has been happening?

[wilts rover]

So your saying these discussions that are happening, aren't happening?

If you can call something like :

"What will you compromise on, PM?"

"Nothing, you have to vote for my deal"

"Goodbye"

as a discussion, then yes, they are taking place.

Oh, you've been invited to them have you?

That's what been reported by the BBC as happening. The other parties (LibDems, SNP, Plaid Cymru, Green), although they have met with her have also asked May to take No Deal off the table before talking and she's refused, so end of discussion.

What's your version of what has been happening?

And by Gary Gibbon on Channel 4 just now. The only people who said the talks were constructive were the ERG.

[RedJ]

Aye, constructive by way of making no deal more likely...

[Boomstick]

So your saying these discussions that are happening, aren't happening?

If you can call something like :

"What will you compromise on, PM?"

"Nothing, you have to vote for my deal"

"Goodbye"

as a discussion, then yes, they are taking place.

Oh, you've been invited to them have you?

That's what been reported by the BBC as happening. The other parties (LibDems, SNP, Plaid Cymru, Green), although they have met with her have also asked May to take No Deal off the table before talking and she's refused, so end of discussion.

What's your version of what has been happening?

She'd be damn right stupid if she took no deal off the table, it's her strongest bargaining chip.

[Glyn_Wigley]

So your saying these discussions that are happening, aren't happening?

If you can call something like :

"What will you compromise on, PM?"

"Nothing, you have to vote for my deal"

"Goodbye"

as a discussion, then yes, they are taking place.

Oh, you've been invited to them have you?

That's what been reported by the BBC as happening. The other parties (LibDems, SNP, Plaid Cymru, Green), although they have met with her have also asked May to take No Deal off the table before talking and she's refused, so end of discussion.

What's your version of what has been happening?

She'd be damn right stupid if she took no deal off the table, it's her strongest bargaining chip.

it's a funny bargaining chip when it's preventing other parties from being persuaded to back her in Parliament.

[Boomstick]

So your saying these discussions that are happening, aren't happening?

If you can call something like :

"What will you compromise on, PM?"

"Nothing, you have to vote for my deal"

"Goodbye"

as a discussion, then yes, they are taking place.

Oh, you've been invited to them have you?

That's what been reported by the BBC as happening. The other parties (LibDems, SNP, Plaid Cymru, Green), although they have met with her have also asked May to take No Deal off the table before talking and she's refused, so end of discussion.

What's your version of what has been happening?

She'd be damn right stupid if she took no deal off the table, it's her strongest bargaining chip.

it's a funny bargaining chip when it's preventing other parties from being persuaded to back her in Parliament.

It's not preventing them at all.
The irony that is lost on you is that in order to stop exiting on WTO terms, then NOW is the time for sensible discussion and discourse.
If they don't come to the table, they are proving themselves to be self serving idiots.
WTO terms is a real possibility otherwise.
Much more likely than a people's vote.

May is playing a blinder here.

[TommyC]

The "end-game" here will be 30 Tory Europhiles (Soubry etc) having to make a choice between "no deal" or bringing down their own goverment. There will be twists and turns over the next few weeks, but that is what the final outcome will be based on.

[Glyn_Wigley]

The "end-game" here will be 30 Tory Europhiles (Soubry etc) having to make a choice between "no deal" or bringing down their own goverment. There will be twists and turns over the next few weeks, but that is what the final outcome will be based on.

In between now and that endgame, how does May turn round the other 85 MPs she needs to given that she can't present her deal to the Commons in its present form again?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Hound

It's THAT simple. May has brought this on us by deciding that Brexit meant leaving the CU. Labour says Brexit does not require us to leave the CU (although admittedly, Corbyn had to be dragged to that position by wiser heads).

You keep saying this but it's just not true. Starmer and Corbyn announced together that a CU was official Labour policy in August 2017. Starmer in the Observer and Corbyn on the Marr show.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/aug/27/labour-jeremy-corbyn-brexit-policy-change

Agreed with everything else you had to say about the policy tho.

Conveniently, you ignore the 14 months before August 2017 Wilts, when it was widely reported that Corbyn wanted us out of the CU.

[TommyC]

But she doesn't need to turn them around does she. She doesn't need to do anything.

Have you looked at the processes needed to revoke Article 50? Or delay it? Or call a second referendum? A "majority in the house" on its own isn't quite sufficient.

Even to frustrate "no deal", they will have to either rely on "amendments" like they did with the Finance Bill last week. Or as I just said, hope that Soubry etc decide to vote to bring down their own government the next time JC tables another no confidence vote.

[BillyStubbsTears]

BS

No Deal/WTO Brexit isn't on the agenda. There are 550+ MPs who will not allow it.

If May doesn't see sense and kill that idea, she will be sidelined, by Cabinet, Tory Party or the Commons and a bill will be brought to put that stupid concept where it belongs.

[TommyC]

Okay BST, I don't want to argue about the rights and wrongs of either side. Nor have I tried to. I've simply made a prediction.

Tell me how we avoid no deal through parliament. Who votes where etc. Very interested to know.