Brexit deal

[Donnywolf]

    DW...I've never voted Labour in my life,i voted Liberal when I was younger but have been a Tory ever since.My position right now is that I'm not anything..I'm waiting to be swayed by a party who is prepared to show some proper unity and strength and if that was Labour then I would vote for them...

    I've always said if you cant be bothered to use your democratic right to go and put a cross in a box,dont argue about the concequences,but right at this minute if we had a GE tomorrow I couldn't in all faith go out and support any of them and that's a sad reflection on were we are...

 

Indeed it is a very sad relection on the state of Politics when neither of us could vote and put faith in anything on offer !
If anything "good" comes out of the whole B****t  mess from 76 to today lets hope it is fundamental changes to the whole political system to make it "real" for Voters again

[Copps is Magic]

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46918009

Some contrasting discourse to the neo-imperialistic, little Britain idea that Europe is an existential threat.

[Donnywolf]

LOL - I see what you mean. I had to open it to know what the other bit meant !

[tommy toes]

Wing Commander
As I've posted before, I was a fervent Corbyn supporter prior to the last election and wasn't surprised by the surge in Labour support then.
However I think that horse has now bolted and have been very disappointed by his performance since. The last straw for me is his refusal to engage in these cross party talks. In the past he's engaged with all sorts of dodgy and dangerous organisations to try to sort things out with dialogue but refuses to get involved in this and orders the rest of his MP's to do the same.
He does not appeal to anyone other than a few MPs and Momentum. He needs to step down as his public persona is f***ed.

[Filo]

Wing Commander
As I've posted before, I was a fervent Corbyn supporter prior to the last election and wasn't surprised by the surge in Labour support then.
However I think that horse has now bolted and have been very disappointed by his performance since. The last straw for me is his refusal to engage in these cross party talks. In the past he's engaged with all sorts of dodgy and dangerous organisations to try to sort things out with dialogue but refuses to get involved in this and orders the rest of his MP's to do the same.
He does not appeal to anyone other than a few MPs and Momentum. He needs to step down as his public persona is f***ed.

I agree with that

[drfchound]

Thing about praising Cable or Lucas for being open, is that neither of them have a shot at power and neither of them have a fractious, split party and electorate to keep happy.

Corbyn had a reputation for being direct and honest as a backbencher. That literally did not last 3 months when he took over as Labour leader. He was immediately into fudging answers on everything from whether he would kneel in front of the Queen to whether he wanted us out of NATO. Because he knew that a straight, honest answer would alienate people who he had to attract.

It's not the fault of the individuals. It's our idiotic party system where the two main parties are designed facto coalitions, covering wide ranges of opinion. So the leaders HAVE to fudge and evade if they are not going to piss off one part of their support.

Interesting to me BST that you say that Cable and Lucas can be honest because they don’t have a shot of gaining power.
That reminded me of the election promises that Corbyn made at the last GE in an attempt to gain votes, particularly the young vote.
He knew he had no chance of winning and so was in a position where he could promise anything without having to deliver.


Wing commander, I also have voted Tory for quite a few years now, however I always feel that my vote is “wasted” because of where I live, knowing full well that Labour will always win the local election.
Whether I vote or not, the outcome is always going to be the same.

[Axholme Lion]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6606197/German-industry-looking-abyss-warns-countrys-business-chiefs.html

They will bottle it if we stand firm.

[wing commander]

Thing about praising Cable or Lucas for being open, is that neither of them have a shot at power and neither of them have a fractious, split party and electorate to keep happy.

Corbyn had a reputation for being direct and honest as a backbencher. That literally did not last 3 months when he took over as Labour leader. He was immediately into fudging answers on everything from whether he would kneel in front of the Queen to whether he wanted us out of NATO. Because he knew that a straight, honest answer would alienate people who he had to attract.

It's not the fault of the individuals. It's our idiotic party system where the two main parties are designed facto coalitions, covering wide ranges of opinion. So the leaders HAVE to fudge and evade if they are not going to piss off one part of their support.

Interesting to me BST that you say that Cable and Lucas can be honest because they don’t have a shot of aging power.
That reminded me of the election promises that Corbyn made at the last GE in an attempt to gain votes, particularly the young vote.
He knew he had no chance of winning and so was in a position where he could promise anything without having to deliver.


Wing commander, I also have voted Tory for quite a few years now, however I always feel that my vote is “wasted” because of where I live, knowing full well that Labour will always win the local election.
Whether I vote or not, the outcome is always going to be the same.

  Yes that must be really frustrating..i'm quite lucky as I live in a constituency that has swung both ways over the last 5 elections,so at least you feel that your vote counts...

[albie]

The point Tommy C makes is crucial.
How does May remove "no deal" from the equation to free up the logjam?

It may be that Treeza thinks that the only way her own deal has any chance of revival is if it is pitched up against the disastrous no deal scenario.
Any port in a storm sort of thing!

Given the scale of her knockback, realistically she should move on from the May deal, and look to the options offered by amendments.
Once her comeback proposal is debated (and ruled out), this process kicks in.
She can wait for this to happen, and then subsequent developments are not her fault.

The ERG fanatics are outflanked by  softer Brexit alternatives emerging, and the HoC numbers move.
The centre of gravity of the debate changes.

The time contraints mean that the government will probably move to delay Article 50 with an extention. 
There is little point in the EU granting a delay if the default outcome remains no deal. They could have that at the end of March.

Parliament needs to choose to remove no deal by passing an act to that effect.
May must give government time to allow this to happen, possibly on a free vote basis.

If she does not, then her own cabinet need to sideline her in the decision making process. She is not a President.

This takes us back to the point raised in my earlier post, that May must face down the ERG at some point.
The only question is when....it is now about the timing!

Ps.
Hound,

I am always happy to be corrected, but it is not disrespectful to point out that this situation has arisen because of poor judgment from May.
A chess player capable of reading the possible outcomes would not have made the basic errors she has to date.

[Axholme Lion]

The politicians trying to block Brexit are all traitors and no respecters of democracy. If remain had won the referendum we would have heard no more about this and had we still been banging on about it two and a half years later would have been branded as bad losers.
It's funny that this area for so strong a vote for leaving but there are so many on here that oppose the common view.

[RedJ]

The politicians trying to block Brexit are all traitors and no respecters of democracy. If remain had won the referendum we would have heard no more about this and had we still been banging on about it two and a half years later would have been branded as bad losers.
It's funny that this area for so strong a vote for leaving but there are so many on here that oppose the common view.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36306681
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/nigel-farage-wants-second-referendum-7985017
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/01/11/brexit-bulletin-nigel-farages-business-looks-unfinished/

Farage was agitating for a second vote before the first was even held so that's b*llocks. Not to mention that petition that was actually started by a leave voter thinking they'd lost.

[Axholme Lion]

The politicians trying to block Brexit are all traitors and no respecters of democracy. If remain had won the referendum we would have heard no more about this and had we still been banging on about it two and a half years later would have been branded as bad losers.
It's funny that this area for so strong a vote for leaving but there are so many on here that oppose the common view.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36306681
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/nigel-farage-wants-second-referendum-7985017
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/01/11/brexit-bulletin-nigel-farages-business-looks-unfinished/

Farage was agitating for a second vote before the first was even held so that's b*llocks. Not to mention that petition that was actually started by a leave voter thinking they'd lost.

Say what you want, it would have all been forgotten by now.

[DonnyOsmond]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6606197/German-industry-looking-abyss-warns-countrys-business-chiefs.html

They will bottle it if we stand firm.

They will bottle what? Our MPs rejected the deal and have everyone heading to No Deal and no jobs. Don't blame the EU.

[IDM]

The politicians trying to block Brexit are all traitors and no respecters of democracy. If remain had won the referendum we would have heard no more about this and had we still been banging on about it two and a half years later would have been branded as bad losers.
It's funny that this area for so strong a vote for leaving but there are so many on here that oppose the common view.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36306681
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/nigel-farage-wants-second-referendum-7985017
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/01/11/brexit-bulletin-nigel-farages-business-looks-unfinished/

Farage was agitating for a second vote before the first was even held so that's b*llocks. Not to mention that petition that was actually started by a leave voter thinking they'd lost.

Say what you want, it would have all been forgotten by now.

I disagree.. if a few years downstream there was a feeling in the country and in parliament that leaving was an option again, it could again be put to the vote after a certain period of time..

[Jonathan]

The politicians trying to block Brexit are all traitors and no respecters of democracy. If remain had won the referendum we would have heard no more about this and had we still been banging on about it two and a half years later would have been branded as bad losers.
It's funny that this area for so strong a vote for leaving but there are so many on here that oppose the common view.

It stands to reason that, had remain won the vote, there’d have been no need to negotiate an exit strategy that’s taken two and a half years to reach this shambolic position. Of course it’s still in the public domain on that basis. Even the leave voters are still banging on about it (as you put it) as they’re not happy now with how it’s intended to leave and they didn’t / couldn’t know before they voted. So you’re simply not comparing a comparable set of circumstances. Of course it’s still an issue two and a half years down the line, because a simple vote was held on the most complex set of circumstances imaginable.

“Leave means leave” is a strapline that I’m sure got plenty of attention. But if anybody actually thought that we could exit straight after the referendum and there’d be no need to still be sorting out the repercussions of that years down the line, then it just shows that they didn’t know what they were voting for. 

[RedJ]

Careful Jonathan or you'll be labelled patronising and condescending for pointing out simple facts.

[wilts rover]

Indeed. And what I'm waiting for someone to explain to me (because I genuinely do not know) is the Parliamentary process that will happen to thwart a no deal. The fact that there are allegedly hundreds of MPs against it is all well and good. But Article 50 is enshrined in UK Law. Overturning that requires the government support overturning it and the same goes for a second referendum.

I'm interested to know how certain people can be so absolutely and vehemently convinced that no deal is never going to happen. It really doesn't appear that clear cut to me. Hence the vote of no confidence, of which there will be more and the "amendment" to the Finance Bill last week. If it were so simple to revoke or delah article 50, why haven't they done it yet?

Further to Billy's answer, in practical terms the measures to rule out No Deal will begin with an amendment placed by Nick Boles & Yvette Cooper (among others) to the Brexit motion that the Government have to put before parliament on 29th January.

This amendment (if passed and the number of MP's from both side who have indicated they dont want No Deal indicates it will pass) will force the government to extend Article 50 unless some other decision has been made by early March.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/17/nick-boles-tory-mp-plans-bill-make-no-deal-brexit-legally-impossible

Boles' reward for stopping the country decending into chaos is of course to be informed by his local constituency party that he will be deselected at the next election.

[Glyn_Wigley]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6606197/German-industry-looking-abyss-warns-countrys-business-chiefs.html

They will bottle it if we stand firm.

Project Fear

[BillyStubbsTears]

I wonder if Boles will get more messages like this as a result?

https://mobile.twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1082919112404357120

Or more phone calls like the one a couple of nights ago threatening to burn his house down?

[Glyn_Wigley]

The politicians trying to block Brexit are all traitors and no respecters of democracy. If remain had won the referendum we would have heard no more about this and had we still been banging on about it two and a half years later would have been branded as bad losers.
It's funny that this area for so strong a vote for leaving but there are so many on here that oppose the common view.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36306681
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/nigel-farage-wants-second-referendum-7985017
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/01/11/brexit-bulletin-nigel-farages-business-looks-unfinished/

Farage was agitating for a second vote before the first was even held so that's b*llocks. Not to mention that petition that was actually started by a leave voter thinking they'd lost.

Say what you want, it would have all been forgotten by now.

Aye. We'd never have seen Farage's mug on our telly ever again.

[Filo]

I wonder if Boles will get more messages like this as a result?

https://mobile.twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1082919112404357120

Or more phone calls like the one a couple of nights ago threatening to burn his house down?

A traceable ip, someone will probably be having a visit from the plod I think

[SydneyRover]

Wing Commander
As I've posted before, I was a fervent Corbyn supporter prior to the last election and wasn't surprised by the surge in Labour support then.
However I think that horse has now bolted and have been very disappointed by his performance since. The last straw for me is his refusal to engage in these cross party talks. In the past he's engaged with all sorts of dodgy and dangerous organisations to try to sort things out with dialogue but refuses to get involved in this and orders the rest of his MP's to do the same.
He does not appeal to anyone other than a few MPs and Momentum. He needs to step down as his public persona is f***ed.

The question I think for those piling on JC for his refusal to negotiate should ask themselves: are there any circumstances that they would accept a No Deal Brexit, monumentally the worst option ever for everyone and universally understood. So why wouldn't those entering into negotiations want to remove a NDB from the table, the worst option that no-one wants unless it is to be used as blackmail.

[Bentley Bullet]

Its used for bargaining, not blackmail!  How can you get the best deal if you remove the threat to walk away?

[wilts rover]

Well personally I can't see how the UK Government threatening the UK Parliament that the British public will have a shortage of some foods and medicine whilst being catastrophic for manufacturing and farming if they don't vote for their deal is a good look for 'bargaining', but maybe that's just me.

[SydneyRover]

Well personally I can't see how the UK Government threatening the UK Parliament that the British public will have a shortage of some foods and medicine whilst being catastrophic for manufacturing and farming if they don't vote for their deal is a good look for 'bargaining', but maybe that's just me.

Correct Wilts it's called blackmail.

This is a crude example: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z_JOGmXpe5I

[BillyStubbsTears]

Aye. What bargaining!

Give us what we want or we'll...or we'll...or we'll blow our f**king heads off.

[BillyStubbsTears]

By the way, I see the biggest Kitson in the whole Brexit story has been at it again today.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1086278152534413312?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet


Oh aye. And yet. This was him a few years before Brexit.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=NLQ3Gbiopc4&feature=youtu.be

The most charismatic politician of his age, using the issue of Brexit and immigration entirely to further his own career. The man is a f**king obscenity.

Leavers. Ever think you've been played?

[Glyn_Wigley]

Aye. What bargaining!

Give us what we want or we'll...or we'll...or we'll blow our f**king heads off.

It's like Blazing Saddles...'The next man makes a move - the n*gger gets it!'

[The Red Baron]

The problem is, you can't really take No Deal off the table.

May and the EU reached a deal - The Withdrawal Agreement. Parliament rejected it by a thumping majority. So the default position is we leave on 29th March with No Deal.

I accept that nobody, apart from perhaps 50 hardline Brexiteer MPs wants us to leave with No Deal, but that's where we are. The EU is not prepared to renegotiate The Withdrawal Agreement, although I dare say it might do if something like Norway-Plus was offered by the UK.

When May loses her attempt at  "one more heave" on 29th January, the only solution available will be to go for a Second Referendum. Three options - May's Deal, No Deal or Remain, with two preferences available. I think the EU would be prepared to allow us to suspend Article 50 for up to 12 months in those circumstances. However I wouldn't support the Boles Amendment because it implies further negotiations. I don't think the EU will allow us to suspend Article 50 just to negotiate another deal.

[albie]

TRB,

Not following your logic here.

Once the May deal is rejected second time, it will then be changed by amendments introduced under the Grieve revisions.

If any one of these amendments achieves HoC support, it becomes the new position of the UK. A delay to the March deadline is then brought in to allow discussion with the EU.

Including the May deal in any future referendum, after it has been killed off in a parliamentary vote, makes no sense to me.

That is why talk of a Ref2 is premature, until it is clear if any amendment has majority support.
Your last sentence in the final paragraph contradicts the last sentence in the third paragraph, to my reading!