Brexit deal

[BillyStubbsTears]

Ldr

Bang on.

But this was predictable (and predicted) 2 years ago.

The EU has consistently said that the Irish border is a red line. They will NOT sacrifice the economy of a member to satisfy us.

Equally, the insistence on the UK having the right to leave the CU, and consequently, to decide what happens to the Irish border is a red line for the right wing of the Tory party, which is holding May and the rest of the UK to ransom.

This should have been the number one issue that was discussed in the campaign in 2016. But it was barely mentioned. When it WAS mentioned, the Leave side screamed that it was Project Fear.

Just one among many issues on which the electorate was misinformed and mislead in 2016.

Incredibly, after all this time, after 2 years of negotiations and despite all the evidence, the policy of the Govt today is that there is a fairy dust technological solution to the Irish border. No idea what that solution is. Just that there IS one. That's what May is going to Brussels to tell them. Can you imagine how f**king stupid, obstinate and divorced from reality we look to the rest of the EU?

Now we know how impossible a situation it is, it's a rock solid argument for re-visiting the 2016 decision.

[BillyStubbsTears]

There IS the other issue that Peston has pointed out too.

The detail of the backstop was painstakingly negotiated by May with the EU. The EU made some significant concessions. May told them she had the authority to negotiate that deal.

But she didn't. It was thrown out by Parliament, our sovereign body. So why on earth should they negotiate in good faith with her now? In 2 weeks.

What evidence do they have that anything they might agree with here now will get through Parliament.

An utter, unmitigated shambles.

[IDM]

Why didn’t we have a parliament agreed proposed deal to take to the EU in the first place?  Or better still, at the referendum.

[The Red Baron]

TRB

Changes to the Political Declaration are meaningless. The ERG want a legally binding set of wording in the WA which effectively neuters the Backstop.

The EU said before the vote last night (and they've been saying for weeks now) that won't happen. Because a Backstop that we can walk away from is, by definition, not a Backstop.

This is all about positioning for the forthcoming Blame Game when we're faced with the real decision in February - Accept May's original deal, crash out with No Deal or go for Ref2.

Of those three alternatives, the first is unrealistic given the opposition to it two weeks ago and the second would be lunacy. So the third will happen. But only when there's no alternative. And when that happens, the politicians all want to blame someone else for it.

BST

Ref2 has its own issues. For a start there seem to be fewer MPs who support it than support May's Deal (Mark 1). However, I do think support for it could increase when other alternatives are exhausted. BUT - there is a much bigger problem. Can you imagine the current HoC agreeing what would go on the ballot paper? You'd have some who wanted May vs. Remain, some for May vs. No Deal, some for Remain vs. No Deal and some for a range of options with an alternative vote.

The answer then might be change the HoC via a General Election. I might be wrong, but I think a GE now would produce broadly similar numbers to what we have now.

I agree with Wilts, there are probably enough MPs to vote against No Deal, when push comes to shove. But there is nowhere near a consensus on anything close to an actual Deal.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

The interesting thing is Corbyn also saying he has issues with the backdrop. So everyone is pretty much agreed on that bar the eu.  In reality the backdrop can't and won't happen.  It will be something else.

[Glyn_Wigley]

The interesting thing is Corbyn also saying he has issues with the backdrop. So everyone is pretty much agreed on that bar the eu.  In reality the backdrop can't and won't happen.  It will be something else.

But at least Corbyn has some sort of solution in a version of the CU/SM as his position. Go that way and you won't need a backstop as there won't be a border.

The only problem is, though, we've no idea what version of CU/SM he's got in mind.

[Ldr]

The interesting thing is Corbyn also saying he has issues with the backdrop. So everyone is pretty much agreed on that bar the eu.  In reality the backdrop can't and won't happen.  It will be something else.

But at least Corbyn has some sort of solution in a version of the CU/SM as his position. Go that way and you won't need a backstop as there won't be a border.

The only problem is, though, we've no idea what version of CU/SM he's got in mind.

I voted leave and I could get behind that. Was about opting out if a federal state for me

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

The interesting thing is Corbyn also saying he has issues with the backdrop. So everyone is pretty much agreed on that bar the eu.  In reality the backdrop can't and won't happen.  It will be something else.

But at least Corbyn has some sort of solution in a version of the CU/SM as his position. Go that way and you won't need a backstop as there won't be a border.

The only problem is, though, we've no idea what version of CU/SM he's got in mind.

I voted leave and I could get behind that. Was about opting out if a federal state for me

Potentially yes.  Free trade is not and should not be a huge issue but it depends on what strings are attached.

[wilts rover]

Corbyn & Starmer have said they want a CU/SM deal and the EU have said they want us to stay in the CU/SM so clearly if May is prepared to go down that road there is a negotiation to be had. Despite of course the HoC having already voted against both.

The big dilemma for her still remains that the hard right ERG in her party (and probably also the DUP) dont regard this as Brexit & would see it as a betrayal & sellout to Labour. For which the consequences would be....

So that's May's choice for you. Keep party unity by appeasing the ERG & chasing a deal that doesn't exist or find some cross-party CU/SM consensus deal with the EU - and split the Tories. As it has been since she lost her majority/Corbyn took her majority away in the GE.

[Not Now Kato]

Why didn’t we have a parliament agreed proposed deal to take to the EU in the first place?  Or better still, at the referendum.

Sadly, we weren't prepared back then.  But don't worry, we're fully prepared now - especially for a No Deal Hard Brexit; and we've still got a couple of months in hand too....
 
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/brexit-two-months-to-go-final-web.pdf?fbclid=IwAR3X6csR1rIgySIl3i-H9gup_avDIBgQj4x6NLJilWXpJZxO3GiFAjnll7Y
 

[drfchound]

Why didn’t we have a parliament agreed proposed deal to take to the EU in the first place?  Or better still, at the referendum.

Probably because no one had an idea of what was to be sorted out.

[Not Now Kato]

According to the BBC yesterday, Teresa May is really going to sort out the EU this time....
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0MvfW5f4z7M

[albie]

May is now after bribing weak minded Labour rebels:
https://news.sky.com/story/jeremy-corbyn-warns-his-mps-not-to-back-brexit-deal-in-exchange-for-constituency-cash-11623669

Just like the DUP....votes for sale.

I suppose it is just a logical extension of normal business practice in the modern Tory party.
No moral compass, the Maybot is just programmed for corruption.

[wilts rover]

#magicmoneytree

[Not Now Kato]

Even the right wing Times can see that Brexit is a very bad idea, and why it's looking like going where it's looking like going
 
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/like-the-fyre-festival-brexit-was-sold-on-lies-and-will-be-a-disaster-hrtvlmnhg?shareToken=d8d2b2716d0a2edd4253a3697729c7b3

[SydneyRover]

There is now a bit of thumb twiddling time while May waits for the ERG for the next set of instructions.

[BillyStubbsTears]

More about how Arron Banks and Leave.EU trampled over data protection rules in the referendum campaign.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ICOnews/status/1091276923442024449

Turns out by the way, if you ever ever used Moneysupermaket.com to get a car insurance quote, your details were passed on to Banks's insurance company. Who then gave them to Leave.EU (which he funded, using money from the Kremlin). Leave.EU then used those details to send targeted Leave messages to people.

All totally illegal breaches of data protection rules. Hence today's £120k fine.

But hey, I'm sure the lies that they pumped into people's inboxes didn't change any voters' minds.

[DonnyOsmond]

May is now after bribing weak minded Labour rebels:
https://news.sky.com/story/jeremy-corbyn-warns-his-mps-not-to-back-brexit-deal-in-exchange-for-constituency-cash-11623669

Just like the DUP....votes for sale.

I suppose it is just a logical extension of normal business practice in the modern Tory party.
No moral compass, the Maybot is just programmed for corruption.

One of our local ones is quite happy with it. John Mann.

[wilts rover]

Here we go, practical ideas.

Apparently the talk in Brussels around the way to solve the backstop issue is to scrap the transition period and extend Article 50 for 2 years. During which time they will negotiate the future relationship - thus doing away with the need for the backstop.

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn

[albie]

John Mann....Jesus wept!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-47081988/john-mann-this-is-not-transactional-politics

I expect the folk who voted for a Labour candidate in Bassetlaw are all in favour of:

   ignoring the party whip,
   disregarding party policy agreed at conference,
   preventing colleagues from holding the government to account and stop a no deal exit,
AND
   accepting bribes to prop up the Tories.

The Cooper amendment failed by 23 votes.
From Labour, 14 supported Treeza, and 11 abstained.

Do the maths...these people are keeping the Maybot in place, even if that is not their main intention.

Frank Field was up to the same scam, and got a frosty response from a Middlesborough MP.
https://www.newstatesman.com/theresa-may-buy-labour-mp-brexit-deal-support

I look forward to the day that the penny drops about being in opposition!

[BillyStubbsTears]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47105990

So the PM is now "determined" to do the impossible (sort out leaving in 2 months) and reinvigorated to negotiate in 2 weeks what she couldn't in 2 years.

I never properly understood what WB Yeats meant in his most famous line, about how it's easier to bullshit than to deal with impossible problems, but I'm getting it now.

"The best lack all conviction while the worst are full of passionate intensity."

That pretty much sums up the past 3 years.

[Donnywolf]

I am still hopeful there will be a Peoples Vote

I get that there was a Vote and we voted "out" but as I have said previously the 1976 Ref produced a  result of 66% Remain 34% Leave and for 40 years a swathe of Tories (mostly them anyway) carped on and on and on and on etc about Leaving the EEC/EU till they got a Second Ref granted by Cameron

The 2016 Ref produced lets say 52 Out 48 to Stay and however we got to that point and however we got to where we are since that Vote it is clear - that vote is just too divisive to be sustained and though I probably wont be around to see what eventually "pans out" - and it may all be positive - I do think that with a Majority of just 3 or 4 % it is set up for future failure *

I predict (usually badly - look at PvO) that the instant we are out that movers and shakers will immediately start pressure groups to get us back in. If the Leave group did not respect a 33% Maj in 76 why would a Remain (or by then Rejoin) Group respect a piddling 3% Majority ? IMO they would not

So there would be the beginnings of a Join the EU Party - opposite of UKIP I suppose and eventually they would have the support of a sympathetic Parliament and probably get a Third Referendum and who knows may even win to take us back in !

The big difference is having been "out" for however long we would have a better idea of what it was had "happened" to us and the EU in that intervening 10 or 15 years AND if it was detrimental it would be easier to vote Rejoin

So we are where we are - for better or worse - but before we take the next leap why not put whatever "we agree to" as a Nation back to the people ? They may decide again Leave is the option – who knows even maybe by a larger majority ?

Or they may dislike what has been produced and decide Remain is the way to go - but at least the population at large would know - right then - at that point - instead of the estimates being made as to where we stand . This would be especially useful if there has been a shift in the position of the Electorate because if we Leave without testing the waters the Ref result will be forever set as 3 to 4 % and may prove unsustainable * for my reasons above

* As I said previously we might as a Country decide all this fuss WAS worth it after all and be in clover

[Donnywolf]

I have found this just now ! Wish I had found it 30 minutes since

Seems to say what I said but go easy on me - that bloke got paid for writing it

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/03/one-day-a-second-peoples-vote-will-bring-us-back-into-the-european-union-the-only-question-is-when?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

[bpoolrover]

I am still hopeful there will be a Peoples Vote

I get that there was a Vote and we voted "out" but as I have said previously the 1976 Ref produced a  result of 66% Remain 34% Leave and for 40 years a swathe of Tories (mostly them anyway) carped on and on and on and on etc about Leaving the EEC/EU till they got a Second Ref granted by Cameron

The 2016 Ref produced lets say 52 Out 48 to Stay and however we got to that point and however we got to where we are since that Vote it is clear - that vote is just too divisive to be sustained and though I probably wont be around to see what eventually "pans out" - and it may all be positive - I do think that with a Majority of just 3 or 4 % it is set up for future failure *

I predict (usually badly - look at PvO) that the instant we are out that movers and shakers will immediately start pressure groups to get us back in. If the Leave group did not respect a 33% Maj in 76 why would a Remain (or by then Rejoin) Group respect a piddling 3% Majority ? IMO they would not

So there would be the beginnings of a Join the EU Party - opposite of UKIP I suppose and eventually they would have the support of a sympathetic Parliament and probably get a Third Referendum and who knows may even win to take us back in !

The big difference is having been "out" for however long we would have a better idea of what it was had "happened" to us and the EU in that intervening 10 or 15 years AND if it was detrimental it would be easier to vote Rejoin

So we are where we are - for better or worse - but before we take the next leap why not put whatever "we agree to" as a Nation back to the people ? They may decide again Leave is the option – who knows even maybe by a larger majority ?

Or they may dislike what has been produced and decide Remain is the way to go - but at least the population at large would know - right then - at that point - instead of the estimates being made as to where we stand . This would be especially useful if there has been a shift in the position of the Electorate because if we Leave without testing the waters the Ref result will be forever set as 3 to 4 % and may prove unsustainable * for my reasons above

* As I said previously we might as a Country decide all this fuss WAS worth it after all and be in clover

let’s forget if brexit is a good idea or not wolf, let’s say the have another vote and remain win then in 2 years they have another vote and leave wins woukd that be acceptable? You want another vote before we have left you can’t compare it to a vote near 50 years ago

[selby]

  We have had another vote since the referendum in the General Election with both major parties manifestos stating they were willing to deliver the out vote.
  Even Billy canvassed   for the Labour party knowing that, so if you voted for any of the major parties you backed the will of the people in the referendum, or did you not Know what you were voting for?
  You should have voted Liberal, green SNP etc. to oppose Brexit.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I think you're not getting how General Elections work Selby. GEs aren't single issue events.

[Bentley Bullet]

When an election is prior to an imminent 'disaster' like Brexit, which 'might be worse than WWII for our economy over a long period' resulting in 'no food in the shops', surely the most important single issue above all other issues put together would lead you to back a party that supported a re-vote to stop the 'clusterf**k' happening?

[BillyStubbsTears]

BB
Clearly you don't understand how GEs work either.

The LDs didn't have a chance in a million in my constituency. Voting for them would have given the Tories more chance of winning the seat. Since Labour had a far softer approach to Brexit than the Tories did, it would have been totally stupid for me to have voted LD.

Hard isn't it, this messy real life stuff?

[Bentley Bullet]

Well, it's the fault of you and your like-minded constituents for voting tactically instead of for a party that agreed with your desire for a re-vote.

That's the trouble with real life, sometimes you get caught in a landslide with no escape from reality.

[Donnywolf]

Mamma Mia - Queen is supposed to be a-political !