Brexit deal

[wilts rover]

Interesting theory TRB but I reckon you have forgotten one major point.

If May is defeated next week the following day she will hold a vote on whether or not to take No Deal off the table. Which way will she vote in that deal - and will she retain any credibility with anybody after it?

https://www.facebook.com/1498276767163730/posts/2292501507741248/

[The Red Baron]

May will probably have to vote for No Deal, because she says she wants it as a bargaining chip. However I can't see that she can impose a three line whip because she will lose half her Cabinet.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Very good piece by Peston, Wilts.

I must admit, I'd not thought of that scenario.

As he says, if she votes against No Deal after three years of saying it's viable, that would be the biggest political U-turn in history.

If she votes for No Deal and Parliament doesn't, she is in an impossible situation of being expected to run a policy that is totally against her beliefs.

Either way, that's copper-bottomed resignation stuff in normal times.

Course, there is a way she could be true to her beliefs AND win. If she votes for No Deal and Parliament also voted for No Deal.

But let's not think about that, eh? We've all got to be able to sleep at night for the next week...

[Donnywolf]

If she votes for No Deal and Parliament doesn't, she is in an impossible situation of being expected to run a policy that is totally against her beliefs.

She has been doing that though for the last 3 years surely ? As a Remain voter (I am sure she was) she just developed an EVEN thicker skin to "attempt" to convince the people she was in fact the biggest supporter of Leave that there was

She would swap horses and deliver herself devoutly to that new cause and no doubt get a new catchy catchphrase / mantra to go along with it

She is not in isolation either though in batting for the other side whether Blue or Red

[The Red Baron]

If by some chance May were to get the HoC to vote for No Deal she'd have to find half a cabinet from somewhere. But the more you look at the arithmetic, No Deal has less chance of winning the vote than May's Deal.

There is another possibility which doesn't align with my scenario and I think is highly possible. That's when the vote on requesting an extension is held. I think it is very possible that could be defeated as well.

It sums up the justified frustration of the EU negotiators. Parliament is very good at saying what it doesn't want, but not what it does want.

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB
If the first two votes turn down May's deal and No Deal, there's no way that Parliament wouldn't vote for an extension of A50. Because to vote against that in those circumstances is implicitly voting for No Deal.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Meanwhile our glorious PM battles on. Today she's imploring the EU to change policy on the backstop.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47487320

When I saw the headline, I assumed she was in Brussels, doing this imploring. Sat in serious meetings trying to thrash out a compromise that both sides could accept.

But, bizarrely, she's imploring the EU from...Grimsby.

Almost as if she's achieved f**k all in Brussels, so she's given up on that asked one of her pre-pubescent advisers to find her a grim Northern shithole that voted Leave, where she can go and make a tub thumping speech telling the plebs that she's their Boudicea against the continental oppressors.

[Donnywolf]

No doubt spouting the usual s**t as well including "must deliver etc etc" - and people I meet on the door step just say "get on with it" - the latter of course can mean anything !

The people are fed up they want a conclusion (win lose or draw) - but they the Politicians use "get on with it" to mean get on with Leaving which is NOT the same - so they lump everyone together

[BillyStubbsTears]

Read this and weep at the bunch of useless, back-covering, blame-shifting, worthless nobodies we've got governing us at the moment.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Peston/status/1103939031761510400

So THAT is what the PM's Grimsby speech is about. It's about playing the blame game for this unmitigated crisis that we're now barrelling into, that SHE has paved the way for.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Reading up on the last few posts. One thing about Theresa May, you can predict what shell so and then she will probably do something totally different and baffling.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I think it's called being divorced from reality BFYP.

[The Red Baron]

TRB
If the first two votes turn down May's deal and No Deal, there's no way that Parliament wouldn't vote for an extension of A50. Because to vote against that in those circumstances is implicitly voting for No Deal.

I agree it would be illogical to vote against No Deal and then vote against requesting an extension. It will be fascinating to see which MPs manage to defy logic next week. Maybe a spread on how many? :-)

[BillyStubbsTears]

The frustrating thing is that the vote next week will allow 100 or so Tories to posture to their members by voting for No Deal, knowing full well that the more sensible MPs will save the country from that madness.

It's quite sickening seeing how the country is being f**ked about still, over something that has only ever been about who rules the Right of politics in this country.

[turnbull for england]

Considering they went into administration yesterday,  fairly sure  theres a metaphor in here   https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/apr/23/amber-rudd-online-eu-registration-system-lk-bennett

[BillyStubbsTears]

One to ruin your weekend when you think that May might be in her final days.

https://mobile.twitter.com/retepelyod/status/1104093145921409024

[Donnywolf]

Good god - although to be fair any 5 current random Labour Party Cabinet members would be equally frightening

In fact hard to think of 5 decent ones from either Party put together.

Anybody suggest anybody that they would see as a PM because most of them are well exposed

[Bentley Bullet]

Jacob Rees Mogg?

[BillyStubbsTears]

JRM?

JFC!

[Bentley Bullet]

Well, I wouldn't go that far but I believe some people think so.

[BillyStubbsTears]

JFW then.

[BillyStubbsTears]

If you want a PM who brings absolutely nothing of substantive merit to any discussion, who suavely lies through his f**king teeth with that patrician condescension that seems to impress so many working class folk, and whose one and only talent is an ability to bait the opposite side, then Rees-Mogg is your man.

It would be quite a fitting finale to the last few years in truth. Maybe we need to go through that crucible before we collectively recover our senses.

[Bentley Bullet]

JFW then.

Jesus is probably weeping now, along with a lot of us.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Arron Banks. The man who led Farage's Leave campaign, funded by Kremlin money.

It doesn't matter how disgusting the previous news about him has been, there's always a deeper layer to the cess pit that he is.
https://www.channel4.com/news/the-banks-files-brexit-funder-urged-campaign-to-press-it-harder-after-jo-cox-murder

[Not Now Kato]

Arron Banks. The man who led Farage's Leave campaign, funded by Kremlin money.

It doesn't matter how disgusting the previous news about him has been, there's always a deeper layer to the cess pit that he is.
https://www.channel4.com/news/the-banks-files-brexit-funder-urged-campaign-to-press-it-harder-after-jo-cox-murder

Just shows how bent the referendum was 
 
The guy should be locked up for a very long time.

[bobjimwilly]

I wish more of the working class who voted Brexit would watch things like this and actually realise the whole point of Brexit is nothing to do with helping us pondlife; the whole point of Brexit is to make the rich and elite richer. That's it!

[Bentley Bullet]

BJW. Why didn't the rich and elite prevent us from joining in the first place?

[BillyStubbsTears]

BB

Simple really.

Because those at the heart of the financial sector, who stand to gain from the turmoil of Brexit, did not have the stranglehold on the Establishment that they do now.

Back in the 60s and early 70s, the Tory party was still populated  by people who believed they had a responsibility to the entire country rather than to their own pockets.

Times change.

[Bentley Bullet]

BST, you talk as if it is only The Tory party members who wanted Brexit.

[foxbat]

unfortunately , not all . a lot of people have been conned by the lies of the (illegal) leave campaign , but before that, decades of EU criticism from the right wing press , including the Sun . owned by non British billionares who want to avoid UK tax and be allowed to shaft the UK as they see fit , unhindered  by the pesky EU.

[BillyStubbsTears]

BB
I was answering your question. I assumed, it being your question, you wanted it answering. If instead it was just an excuse to take the discussion off down another rabbit hole, then have fun. I'll leave you to it.