Brexit deal

[BillyStubbsTears]

Have a look at what's been agreed tonight. Then ask yourself what the cause for celebration is.

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/commission_communication-11march2019.pdf

[tommy toes]

Basically nothing has changed other than we now have assurances on the backstop.
The deal is still hopeless and leaves us in limbo.
The hard Brexiteers in the ERG aren't getting what they want and anyone with any sense on the other side will see its far worse than just staying in.
I hope they have the balls to vote it down again.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

I'm a bit confused. What's actually changed? As far as I can tell the withdrawal agreement hasn't been changed one iota. Am I mental or is that actually what's happened here?

About sums it up. Legal tall to shut up the erg types.  I'd hope may got assurances on what they want otherwise what's the point?

[Filo]

It appears the ERG’s position wil depend on the DUP’s position

[Donnywolf]

She will offer the DUP another mountain of cash. Probably every Penny that Grayling would have wasted in the next year.

Rich pickings indeed for a 10 Seat Party who "amassed" 292000 Votes in the flawed First Past the Post System giving them "skewed" importance - The Green Party got roughly twice as many votes for just 1 Seat

The DUP were then rewarded (source BBC Website) - and today they may get rewarded again


What is in it for the DUP?

As well as the obvious influence and prestige of being involved with the UK government, there will also be £1bn more spent on Northern Ireland over the next two years than had previously been planned. They have also got agreement on a range of policy priorities - such as keeping the guarantee to increase state pensions by at least 2.5% a year, to maintain defence spending and to maintain agriculture spending in Northern Ireland at the same level for the rest of the current Parliament (which theoretically takes us to June 2022). Read more: Where the money will be spent

.

[Glyn_Wigley]

I'm a bit confused. What's actually changed? As far as I can tell the withdrawal agreement hasn't been changed one iota. Am I mental or is that actually what's happened here?

It's the oldest political trick in the book - give something unpopular a different name and pretend it's new and different. It works on the public time after time but I can't believe May thinks it'll work on a room full of politicians.

[BillyStubbsTears]

It now entirely depends on whether the ERG have the courage of their convictions that they've used to f**k the country about for 2 years, or if they are looking for a way out of the mess they've led us into.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I should add. That's a way out for THEM, not for the country. This deal will still leave us in the shit as a nation.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

For the ERG though they can claim a win now so it to me seems sensible they back it, but they aren't sensible.

Let's not forget this is only an interim possible agreement. The full agreement will be even tougher.

[BillyStubbsTears]

How do they claim a win?

They have been in full-on Henry V mode for the past year, I distinguished that we would t be held to ransom by the EU over Ireland, and specifically that they could not vote for a deal that means we did not have the unilateral right to leave the backstop arrangement.

This is what May agreed yesterday.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Raphael_Hogarth/status/1105249024037269504

So we will not have the unilateral right to leave the backstop.

If the ERG votes for this deal now, after taking May to the point of collapse and getting precisely nothing in return, it would be like a boxer having their opponent on the ropes in the last minute of the 12th, pulling back the fist to land the killer blow, then chucking in the towel.

They'll be revealed for the piss and wind merchants I've long thought them to be.

[BillyStubbsTears]

This is the Bill that they'll be voting on tonight.
https://mobile.twitter.com/labourwhips/status/1105239134657015811/photo/1

Paragraph 3. The deal that May did last night (which, as far as I can see, is identical to her previous deal, but there you go) "...reduces the risk..." of us not being able to leave the backstop.

If the ERG votes for that after all they've said, they are spineless idiots. Which is not to say that they won't vote for it.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Since it's now all down to interpretation of legalese, it's useful that Labour's Kier Starmer has been a QC for nearly 2 decades.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1105374833410560001

In layman's terms, the Attorney General is going to stand up in front of Parliament and dissemble his way through telling everyone that this is a game changer. Some of the ERG are going to use that to climb down. But here's Starmer, with a QC's forensic eye, pointing out calmly and logically that nowt has actually changed.

Edit:
On which topic.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Peston/status/1105403232707325952

And

https://mobile.twitter.com/Geoffrey_Cox/status/1105393787243778053?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1105393787243778053&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.co.uk%2Fnews%2Flive%2Fuk-politics-parliaments-47529293

Be fascinating watching Cox squirm in the House later today.

[SydneyRover]

It's totally obvious what's happened bst, they have confused the 'let' rule in squash with the backstop. ffs

College coaches and players should be particularly aware of two rules: the “best effort let” and “fishing for strokes.” Best Effort Let: The rules of squash indicate that a player must have demonstrated a “best effort” to attempt to play a ball in the case of interference by the other player.

[Copps is Magic]

Politicians voting differently on the same thing twice is how the 'establishment' lost trust with the British people in the first place and Brexit happened.

[The Red Baron]

The key para of Geoffrey Cox's advice, just published.

19. However, the legal risk remains unchanged that if through no such demonstrable failure of either party, but simply because of intractable differences, that situation does arise, the United Kingdom would have, at least while the fundamental circumstances remained the same, no internationally lawful means of exiting the Protocol’s arrangements, save by agreement


I don't think that's going to be acceptable to the DUP or the ERG. Everybody back on the bus.

[Donnywolf]

Paragraph 19 from Attorney General looks like bad news for May

However the MPs will now be voting politically - with the can kicked down the road they face a choice. Her deal with its Clauses (new and improved we are told) or Leave with No Deal or dont leave at all

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Indeed, does this advice really mean they want to stop the deal completely that's the choice they have to make.  Likely they will reject it again and the rest of us stuck in the middle.  I don't know where we go from here.

Of course the dup may change their stance when it comes down to it.

[Copps is Magic]

Name all the MPs who change their mind and publicly flog them with turnips and other route vegetables is my opinion.

[Donnywolf]

Indeed, does this advice really mean they want to stop the deal completely that's the choice they have to make.  Likely they will reject it again and the rest of us stuck in the middle.  I don't know where we go from here.

Of course the dup may change their stance when it comes down to it.

I dont think that anyone does to be fair - so dont do yourself down !

[Filo]

Odds on the vote being pulled?

[MachoMadness]

Game over, it seems.

[BillyStubbsTears]

if the ERG and DUP vote for this deal now, why on earth didn't they vote for it in January. Because it's the same thing.

If they DO vote for it now, they are admitting that they have just wasted a critical two months in which they could have been giving some leadership to the country and to business[1], and admitting that they have royally pissed off partners across the Channel that we'll be wanting to do business with in the future.

[1] On which topic, I see that our GDP growth for the three months to January was an anemic 0.2%. We're barely keepin gout of recession, and even this growth is thought to be, to some extent, due to companies stockpiling materials in case of a No deal Brexit.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Fair play to Cox. I suspect that in the Cabinet meeting this morning, they put the thumbscrews on him to give a positive gloss. But it appears he's put professional integrity above that.

[The Red Baron]

Odds on the vote being pulled?

Not a chance. There was some kite-flying yesterday to the effect that the vote could be pulled or made indicative. That provoked threats of No Confidence. The Government is more scared of a General Election than it is of losing this vote.

[Filo]

if the ERG and DUP vote for this deal now, why on earth didn't they vote for it in January. Because it's the same thing.

If they DO vote for it now, they are admitting that they have just wasted a critical two months in which they could have been giving some leadership to the country and to business[1], and admitting that they have royally pissed off partners across the Channel that we'll be wanting to do business with in the future.

[1] On which topic, I see that our GDP growth for the three months to January was an anemic 0.2%. We're barely keepin gout of recession, and even this growth is thought to be, to some extent, due to companies stockpiling materials in case of a No deal Brexit.

BBC reporting half those that voted against it in January, are voting for it tonight

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Fair play to Cox. I suspect that in the Cabinet meeting this morning, they put the thumbscrews on him to give a positive gloss. But it appears he's put professional integrity above that.

Quite right too.

The interesting point from him is that legally there's a chance their fears could happen, but he feels it very unlikely.  The Brexiters have a choice now, is that enough for them to vote for the deal and risk there being no EU deal or no EU leave?  It may well be the best they can ever get, do they want to risk it and push it further or take what they've got?  I think there's more chance of the DUP folding than some Tories and my gut is government will lose but by a smaller margin.

[wing commander]

   Personally I was hoping that she would come back with something that scraped home in the vote today.However with the attorney general stating the legal position on the backstop hasn't changed then I would hope it doesn't go through because that calls Parliaments integrity into question because nothing has really changed for this vote...

  Reality is this will be voted down on a reduced defeat as will the vote on no deal and we will have to go cap in hand asking for a extension...However lets not forget here that the EU have our nuts in a vice and are determined to squeeze,they are refusing to play ball in the hope we end up going with Labours plan of brexit in name only with no real brexit involved...

[BillyStubbsTears]

BFYP

But as I keep on saying, it's not about Brexit for the ERG. It's about taking control of the Tory party.

Always has been.

They would prefer to stay in the EU than give the centre-wing of the Tory party a win. Then they can say to the constituency party members who are virulently Europhobic: Look! Look what the centrists have done! You need to elect more of us and we'll represent you properly.

This morning has been a show. they needed to be seen to be carefully considering this deal, so that THEY don't get the blame from the members when Brexit collapses. I'll admit, for a moment I was wobbling on this view. i wasn't sure they had the balls to carry on with their plan, but it's clear now that that is happening.

The ERG will vote down this plan.

The Commons will vote down No Deal and vote for an extension. The ERG will vote the opposite way.

The EU will say "what do you want an extension for? There's no sign of you agreeing to anything. We'll give you an extension if you hold Ref 2 to sort your shit out."

And the ERG will be a step closer to controlling the Tory party, because they'll say: WE would have gone for No Deal. It's THEIR fault that you've got Ref2.

Bunch of con men, the f**king lot of them. Using Northern working class voters to get to their final aim. Which is to have a country that shits on the Northern working class.

[BillyStubbsTears]

WingCo.

I'm at my wit's end trying to explain this.

What more did you want the EU to do?

WE chose to leave the CU. That is the root cause of ALL of this. We cannot leave the CU without causing serious harm to Ireland. So the EU offered us a way out - the backstop. SA means whereby we could kick the can down the road in the hope that there'd be a solution to the Irish border in future.

That is the ONLY way that the EU are prepared to have trade discussions with us. Once Ireland's position is secure. If we want, we can leave with no deal but this will f**k all over Ireland. So we will not then et a trade deal with the EU.

It's REALLY simple. We're not being held to ransom. The EU are simply looking after their own. We were told by the Leavers that the EU would collapse at our feet and beg us for a deal. As with so man other things, the Leavers lied to you.

The EU are simply holding to a line that they set out years ago. If they allow the UK to walk away from the backstop, they are effectively saying to Ireland (an EU member) "f**k you! We are sacrificing you to appease the Brits."

That was never going to happen and SHOULD never happen.

So what exactly DO you mean when you say the EU have our nuts in a vice? WE have put our nuts in the vice and WE are turning the screw.

[Glyn_Wigley]

ERG have recommended that MPs vote against.

Bye Bye Can-Kicker May.