Brexit deal

[RoversAlias]

They didn't vote to leave on any set date, actually. The Prime Minister set that date out with no idea what Brexit would actually look like and then proceeded to spend 2 years doing f**k all to remedy that, instead getting bogged down in trying unsuccessfully to unite her pathetic party.

May's Deal is a shambles, No Deal is a disaster. Nobody really wants either of these things, and anybody that thinks they want No Deal truly does not understand what that actually means in reality.

The government have allowed this country to fall into a true crisis. Completely shambolic.

[Not Now Kato]

And I'll say again because it doesn't seem to be sinking in. Leaving with No Deal would be the biggest miscarriage of natural justice in our political history.

Fortunately, it won't happen.

In your opinion. Fortunately most of Britain disagree with you.

17.4million isn't even a third of the population?

And 17.4 million don't want no deal. They voted leave, not no deal.

Therefore parliament should support TM's deal, problem solved.

Why?  They didn't vote for TM's deal.

Because they voted to leave the EU on March, 29th and both Conservative and Liebour stood on a manifesto supporting leave.

But they didn't vote for TM's deal.  In fact, they really didn't know what they were voting for because it wasn't specified on the voting paper.  Several options were openly promoted by the leave campaigns prior to the vote, none of which equate to anything like TM's deal.  So suggesting they should simply support something they didn't vote for, without asking them, is rather silly.  And there was no date specified on the ballot paper as the result couldn't have been pre-empted.

[Axholme Lion]

And I'll say again because it doesn't seem to be sinking in. Leaving with No Deal would be the biggest miscarriage of natural justice in our political history.

Fortunately, it won't happen.

In your opinion. Fortunately most of Britain disagree with you.

17.4million isn't even a third of the population?

And 17.4 million don't want no deal. They voted leave, not no deal.

Therefore parliament should support TM's deal, problem solved.

Why?  They didn't vote for TM's deal.

Because they voted to leave the EU on March, 29th and both Conservative and Liebour stood on a manifesto supporting leave.

But they didn't vote for TM's deal.  In fact, they really didn't know what they were voting for because it wasn't specified on the voting paper.  Several options were openly promoted by the leave campaigns prior to the vote, none of which equate to anything like TM's deal.  So suggesting they should simply support something they didn't vote for, without asking them, is rather silly.  And there was no date specified on the ballot paper as the result couldn't have been pre-empted.

Both Conservative and Labour stood at the GE as supporting Brexit. The vast bulk of people who could be bothered to vote supported these parties which is a validation of the referendum result. If they didn't agree with that they should have voted for some other anti Brexit nut jobs like the Liberals.

[Donnywolf]

I just must ask you again and it may be third time lucky if you answer

You described the other day - MPs etc - wanting to ignore the Referendum Result as Traitorous b******s - and I asked if you meant the Tory MPs (mainly) who did not respect the 1976 Result or the 2016 one

I asked because I am sure you have read that the vote to Remain in 1976 was 66% v 34 % very roughly
In 2016 the Vote was 52% v 48% to Leave very roughly

That means the Majority in 1976 was around 8 Times bigger (to Remain) than 2016 (to Leave) but the 76 Result was never respected from then by (mainly) Tory MPs till they eventually got a Second Referendum


So if we do get another Referendum it WILL make it best of 3 - so which are the traitorous Bs ?

[Axholme Lion]

I just must ask you again and it may be third time lucky if you answer

You described the other day - MPs etc - wanting to ignore the Referendum Result as Traitorous b******s - and I asked if you meant the Tory MPs (mainly) who did not respect the 1976 Result or the 2016 one

I asked because I am sure you have read that the vote to Remain in 1976 was 66% v 34 % very roughly
In 2016 the Vote was 52% v 48% to Leave very roughly

That means the Majority in 1976 was around 8 Times bigger (to Remain) than 2016 (to Leave) but the 76 Result was never respected from then by (mainly) Tory MPs till they eventually got a Second Referendum


So if we do get another Referendum it WILL make it best of 3 - so which are the traitorous Bs ?

Anyone trying to stop us leaving.

[Donnywolf]

So I voted Leave in 1976 so the people who thwarted that are traitorous b*****s by your definition. And yet here we are almost out despite such a massive majority in 76 to stay

At least I am consistent in picking the wrong Horse having voted to Remain in 2016

For the record I hope to get a third vote soon and will of course Vote Remain again. Third time lucky for me perhaps

[Donnywolf]

                                          696,204 signatures on the Petition now to Revoke Article 50

Site keeps crashing as around 4000 people a minute are adding their names. It takes 100,000 signatures to "request" Parliament to consider whether to debate it - and will be largely useless if they dont find time to decide whether to daebate it and / or dont find the time to do so

Let's see if it gets anywhere near 17.5 million.
If course we all know it won't.
Pointless exercise.

The remainers with this petition remind me of Hitler sat in his bunker with the Red Army knocking at the door insisting he will still win the war!

It's getting a bit crowded in this bunker...... over 1 million in here now!

Website now "down for Maintenance". We know about it is says.

Hope when it comes back the 1,090,000 people who have signed it are still there ! Cant think there would be any skulduggery wuld there

Oh and just counted Leave means Leave leaving the Red Lion and there were 62

[Axholme Lion]

                                          696,204 signatures on the Petition now to Revoke Article 50

Site keeps crashing as around 4000 people a minute are adding their names. It takes 100,000 signatures to "request" Parliament to consider whether to debate it - and will be largely useless if they dont find time to decide whether to daebate it and / or dont find the time to do so

Let's see if it gets anywhere near 17.5 million.
If course we all know it won't.
Pointless exercise.

Means FA. 17.4 million when it counted though. Brexit is coming.

The remainers with this petition remind me of Hitler sat in his bunker with the Red Army knocking at the door insisting he will still win the war!

It's getting a bit crowded in this bunker...... over 1 million in here now!

Website now "down for Maintenance". We know about it is says.

Hope when it comes back the 1,090,000 people who have signed it are still there ! Cant think there would be any skulduggery wuld there

Oh and just counted Leave means Leave leaving the Red Lion and there were 62

[Donnywolf]

We certainly will see - when someone gets their ar**s in gear one way or another

We will Leave or we will Remain

Thats my final word on this subject because it is boring as f***. Here is my Reply # 2054 which I will post again as I close the door. Up the Remainers hope you pull it off


The sad thing for us as a Nation is that the Vote was not decisive enough.

It may have produced a majority called "large massive or overwhelming" but in truth it was almost 50 50 and that means division.

Cameron should have put a tariff on saying we are in the Eu. and tonleave we must have a majority of say 60 or 66 per cent to trigger a Leave vote

There was no such tariff on the 1976 Referendum but that ended 66-34 in favour of Remain and though I voted Leave I dont remember any great outcry ... and that partly was down to the majority of 33 per cent. I actually went years before I met someone that had voted to Remain because it was a done deal , agreed , just get on with it

This time its virtually man v man woman v woman and it wont end here or any time soon

Mainly Tory MPs even though flying in the face of the 76 majority have conspired againt its result but finally wrestled a Referendum out of Cameron and so I AM SURE that if we do leave eventually there will be immediate and sustained pressure to rejoin. It wont happen in my lifetime I suspect but I think it will eventually come full circle to the point of us wanting to rejoin the EU (in whatever form it then takes)
SLAG me if you like but I will never know because I wont open this Thread again

[The Red Baron]

The EU has agreed an extension to 22nd May conditional on the Deal being passed by Parliament. So there isn't much chance of an extension then!

The options are narrowing to No Deal or Revoke.

[Glyn_Wigley]

The EU has agreed an extension to 22nd May conditional on the Deal being passed by Parliament. So there isn't much chance of an extension then!

The options are narrowing to No Deal or Revoke.

And as usual May has played a blinder by completely pissing off just about everyone in the Commons 24 hours beforehand. That's how to get support!

[BillyStubbsTears]

It's a bit like being on a hamster wheel isn't it?  Same facts pointed out over and over and over again, then ignored.

AL.
I'll say it again. Nigel Farage and many others said repeatedly during the 2016 campaign that we should look at the relationship Norway had with the EU.

I'd accept that as a compromise. It's not what I want but I would accept it. It would mean us leaving the EU. It would honour the 2016 result.

Would you accept that deal?

[TommyC]

The "end-game" here will be 30 Tory Europhiles (Soubry etc) having to make a choice between "no deal" or bringing down their own goverment. There will be twists and turns over the next few weeks, but that is what the final outcome will be based on.

I'm just going to leave this here from back in January. BST said I was talking bullshit.

Deal is rejected for a third time next week. Either the EU offer a longer extension or alternatively we find ourselves heading for no deal. Under those circumstances a vote of no confidence in the government will be tabled by Corbyn. And then it boils down to how those pre-reman Tories vote. Do they bring down their own government or do they allow no deal.

[The Red Baron]

The EU has agreed an extension to 22nd May conditional on the Deal being passed by Parliament. So there isn't much chance of an extension then!

The options are narrowing to No Deal or Revoke.

And as usual May has played a blinder by completely pissing off just about everyone in the Commons 24 hours beforehand. That's how to get support!

It's worse than that Glyn. By framing it as Her Deal vs. No Deal she's removed any incentive for the ERG to hold their noses and vote for her deal. She's totally useless and if the Cabinet had any members with backbones they'd tell her to go.

[Filo]

https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-hundreds-of-gagging-orders-taken-out-by-government-11671933


There’s simething very sinister going on below the surface

[scawsby steve]

The "end-game" here will be 30 Tory Europhiles (Soubry etc) having to make a choice between "no deal" or bringing down their own goverment. There will be twists and turns over the next few weeks, but that is what the final outcome will be based on.

I'm just going to leave this here from back in January. BST said I was talking bullshit.

Deal is rejected for a third time next week. Either the EU offer a longer extension or alternatively we find ourselves heading for no deal. Under those circumstances a vote of no confidence in the government will be tabled by Corbyn. And then it boils down to how those pre-reman Tories vote. Do they bring down their own government or do they allow no deal.

Well said Tommy. At long last, a post of common sense, telling it exactly the way it is.

[The Red Baron]

Hold on...

https://mobile.twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1108800898027929602?p=v

[BillyStubbsTears]

Tommy

If Corbyn does that, it will be utterly irresponsible.

In the scenario you give, the think for Parliament to do is to take control and insist on a longer extension. Playing Russian Roulette with a NC vote which could backfire and take us into No Deal would be beyond stupid.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Tommy
For the record, I didn't say you were talking bullshit. In fact I didn't reply to that specific post.

Go back and have a look. My post shortly after yours was aimed at Boomstick (BS for short).

https://www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=268078.msg829859#msg829859

That misunderstanding has brought a much-needed smile to my face, an hour after I've just come within inches of being killed by some Kitson in a Transit van overtaking a cyclist on a blind bend. I bet he voted Leave an all.

It may well be that some of the Tory MPs do choose to vote to bring down the Govt. But if Corbyn is going to go that route at the 11th hour, he'd better be damn sure he's got the votes to win that NC motion. 

[BillyStubbsTears]

Bet that's been a fun discussion...

https://mobile.twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1108769995276861440

[The Red Baron]

It seems Theresa DOES have a Plan B. But it isn't good news. Still think it might be bluff though.

https://mobile.twitter.com/isaby/status/1108808844908605440/photo/1

[BillyStubbsTears]

Take your pick TRB

She's either away with the fairies, or she is the worst bluffer in history.

[SydneyRover]

Take your pick TRB

She's either away with the fairies, or she is the worst bluffer in history.

Live from the Guardian:

My colleagues Rowena Mason and Dan Sabbagh have also been looking at what Theresa May might do if her deal gets voted down. And, like the Financial Times (see 7.09pm), they have concluded that the evidence is pointing towards no deal.

Here is how their story starts.

Cabinet ministers believe there is now a real risk of a no-deal Brexit, with sources close to them describing the mood in government as depressing and No 10 as “run by lunatics”.

Senior members of the cabinet from both sides of the Brexit argument are understood to think the chances of the UK leaving without a deal have substantially increased after the prime minister set herself against a longer extension to article 50.

One aide to a cabinet minister said No 10 was in “full-on bunker mode” and the prime minister’s speech from Downing Street showed “they have all taken leave of their senses”.

Another soft-Brexit cabinet source described the mood as “depressing” and said of no deal: “The risk is now very real.”

And this is from her colleagues!!!!!!!

[The Red Baron]

Take your pick TRB

She's either away with the fairies, or she is the worst bluffer in history.

Well, we know she couldn't negotiate her way out of a paper bag so I doubt her bluffing skills amount to much.

What gets me is why the Cabinet isn't up in arms about her behaviour? Ok, there will be positioning by those who want to succeed her but there are plenty who don't seem to have leadership ambitions.

[wilts rover]

Isn't it the opposite Billy? She has been bluffing for 3 years that No Deal is an option. Now when her deal is set to fail it appears that the bluff wasn't a bluff but is actually what she is set on happening now.

It's in this situation that Tommy's scenario comes to pass. If her deals fails next week and nothing else has been put in place before it comes to pass, the only - the only - way that parliament can stop a no deal is to call a vote of confidence.

[wilts rover]

Does 80% of the Tory Party membership want No Deal help with your question TRB?

[SydneyRover]

1.3 million and counting

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584

[BillyStubbsTears]

Bet that's been a fun discussion...

https://mobile.twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1108769995276861440

I say "fun". Apparently it was just one sided.

https://mobile.twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1108772332896702466

[BillyStubbsTears]

Isn't it the opposite Billy? She has been bluffing for 3 years that No Deal is an option. Now when her deal is set to fail it appears that the bluff wasn't a bluff but is actually what she is set on happening now.

It's in this situation that Tommy's scenario comes to pass. If her deals fails next week and nothing else has been put in place before it comes to pass, the only - the only - way that parliament can stop a no deal is to call a vote of confidence.

Yeah. I'll take that as an absolute utter last ditch tactic. Absolutely must NOT be a tactic to aim for though, unless Corbyn is 100% certain that he has the votes.

Here's a thought though. Let's assume a realistic scenario.

EU tell us tonight that we can have a short extension only if May's deal passes next week.

May's deal is defeated next Thursday.

We have a NC vote next Friday and the Govt is brought down.

How does that stop us crashing out at 11pm next Friday?

[The Red Baron]

Does 80% of the Tory Party membership want No Deal help with your question TRB?

Possibly, but the likes of Rudd, Gauke and Clark have let it be known that they think No Deal would be a disaster. Time for them to put their money where their mouths are surely?