Brexit deal

[The Red Baron]

Some interesting analysis of last night's votes by party here:

https://twitter.com/cath_haddon/status/1111172769956458497

But here's the sting:

But it also shows how far to go on any compromise. It’s hard to do so when your preferred option still seems possible. Customs Union would have got over line with SNP votes. But referendum got highest figure so will still be in running in their minds.


So there is still a way to go until they can coalesce around an option. I think we can all agree May's Deal is a dead duck. If offering to fall on her sword doesn't make a difference, nothing well.

[The Red Baron]

Re. May's Deal. I actually think by offering to go she made it less likely that it will pass. Although one or two ERG "Big Beasts" have signalled they will or might move, the real problem is the ERG Backwoodsmen like Bridgen and Francois. They will never be reconciled to anything but No Deal.

May's best hope was to peel off sufficient Labour backbenchers who came from Leave-voting seats and were nervous about No Deal. But she damaged her strategy by her speech last Wednesday and killed it off by offering to go last night. Labour MPs don't fancy the prospect of a Tory Hardliner negotiating the future relationship, something I can quite understand.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Some interesting analysis of last night's votes by party here:

https://twitter.com/cath_haddon/status/1111172769956458497

But here's the sting:

But it also shows how far to go on any compromise. It’s hard to do so when your preferred option still seems possible. Customs Union would have got over line with SNP votes. But referendum got highest figure so will still be in running in their minds.


So there is still a way to go until they can coalesce around an option. I think we can all agree May's Deal is a dead duck. If offering to fall on her sword doesn't make a difference, nothing well.

Three things jump out at me from those figures.

1) The Tories are against most things and hopelessly split on the others. Yes, Labour has some people rebelling, but anyone who says the two parties are equally split is talking crap.

2) The largest number of FOR Tory votes was for No Deal. Which everyone knows would be the biggest economic calamity since the 1930s. That's what the Tory party has become. No concept of any sort of Brexits other than an insane one.

3) Anyone who ever says, or ever thought Brexit Means Brexit needs sectioning. Those numbers demonstrate what I've been saying for three years. Brexit isn't a thing. It's a basket of possible things. Having a binary vote in 2016 in those circumstances was criminally stupid.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Oh aye. And the DUP are a helpful bunch aren't they?

[RoversAlias]

I was definitely not calm watching all that proceed last night, BST. With each passing day of deadlock I lose what little faith I had left in these people to actually be "grown up" and come to some form of consensus. I hate the shouting, heckling and paper rustling they all do too. It's very juvenile.

[The Red Baron]

I'm finding it increasingly hard to understand the DUP's position. Both parts of Ireland would be the biggest losers of all under a No Deal Brexit (which I agree won't happen). I wonder what effect their stance is having on their vote because whenever vox pops are done in Ireland you don't find anyone who is relaxed about No Deal (in contrast to the ones done in England).

I'm guessing it's a psychological thing, given their tradition of not compromising and earning popular support for doing so. Maybe someone needs to gently remind them that whatever it may be, the EU isn't some sort of agent of the Vatican!

[BillyStubbsTears]

Only thing the DUP voted for was a 2 year status quo.

Think about it from their side. They don't get tarred with tipping us into No Deal. They kick the can down the road. And they'll retain their position of power over the Govt. And we're back here in 2 years.

Unprincipled bas**rds.

[The Red Baron]

Only thing the DUP voted for was a 2 year status quo.

Think about it from their side. They don't get tarred with tipping us into No Deal. They kick the can down the road. And they'll retain their position of power over the Govt. And we're back here in 2 years.

Unprincipled bas**rds.

My local MP voted for that and also for EEA/ EFTA, which were the two least popular options!

[Axholme Lion]

5,900,820 signatures

If you look at the map it shows the lowest participation rates in the ex-industrial areas of the UK which are now amongst the poorest, and according to recent reports those hit hardest by Austerity. It's almost as though it is some sort of defiant self harm.

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584

Areas where, on average, the less intelligent live.

Or the areas where people have to deal with the harsh realities of real life maybe?

[The Red Baron]

BST

Having seen three of the more sensible MPs interviewed- Justine Greening, Frank Field and Liz Kendall- I'm not optimistic that Parliament can find a way forward on Monday.

Three different solutions. Greening- May's Deal as is, Field- May's Deal with a Customs Union bolted on, Kendall- Customs Union but not May's Deal.

Liz Kendall did make the point I did earlier on: that May's offer to stand down has made it harder to get Labour MPs on board because they are nervous about who follows her.

It's a bloody mess.

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB

There's a massive context to all this.

If we don't sort out our shit by 12 April, we are leaving with No Deal.

That wasn't even discussed in 2016.
There has never been anything remotely approaching a majority for No Deal in any opinion poll.
Parliament is dead set against it.

If we DO stumble into No Deal, it will be the biggest outrage against democracy and biggest Parliamentary failure fir centuries.

So. The closer we get to 12 April, the higher will become the pressure on those who voted against ND, but also didn't support anything else.

It's now a game of will to see who cracks a d moves away from their preferred option.

Expect this to go on for at least another week. Then people to start coalescing around a CU or Ref2 option.

[The Red Baron]

I agree, and the risk of No Deal By Accident remains real. Either Norway-plus (which wasn't voted on yesterday) or May-Plus-CU sound most likely. And of course you could put either of those options to a confirmatory vote.

[Boomstick]

The only outrage against democracy would be if we don't leave at all.
If we leave on wto terms, so be it.

The referendum DID NOT ask if we wanted a deal or remain.

[RedJ]

And into the time tunnel we go...

[DonnyOsmond]

The only outrage against democracy would be if we don't leave at all.
If we leave on wto terms, so be it.

The referendum DID NOT ask if we wanted a deal or remain.

But only the vocal minority want no deal. The majority think it's foolish.

[The Red Baron]

The latest gambit from the ERG, and I've heard this from two different members, is to have a lengthy Article 50 extension. Presumably they believe that May would go, there would be a new Tory leader with views close to theirs and he/ she would reopen the negotiations, perhaps after securing a mandate via a GE.

All seems far fetched to me, and not a little hypocritical given how much they've complained about a two-week extension. Also I doubt the country could stand another 12-18 months of this and we'd have to join in the Euro Elections.

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB

Of COURSE that is ERG policy. As I e been saying for months. This isn't about Brexit. It's about the UK equivalent of the Tea Party taking over control of the Tory Party.

It is SO obvious. Why do you think Rees-Mogg has been in regular contact with Steve Bannon over the past two years? Why do you think that odious traitor, Banks at Leave.Eu has been organising mass inflitration of Tory membership by ex-UKIP members. And the DUP are central to this. They received a half million pound donation that they have refused to explain the source of. It's believed to have gone through Banks's organisations. And he's never explained where HIS money comes from, given that none of his companies makes any serious profit.

[The Red Baron]

They may well gain control of the Tory Party, but in doing so they will make it unelectable.

[Axholme Lion]

They may well gain control of the Tory Party, but in doing so they will make it unelectable.

Outside of the Peoples Republic of South Yorkshire the Labour party are not that popular whoever are running the Conservatives. Even just over the border into North Lincs they wouldn't win here.

[BillyStubbsTears]

The most fascinating thing about this entire process has been to see how some people's obsession with winning means they are prepared to ignore treason, they're prepared to ignore being lied to and they are prepared to ignore the fact that we'll do spectacular damage to our economic future.

None of that matters. As long as they get their way.

[bpoolrover]

If it was proven bst that the Labour Party has lied would you still vote for them or would you ignore them? All parties have told many lies over the years and I’m sure will tell many more

[BillyStubbsTears]

Bpool

Yes. Agreed. And I didn't vote for Labour after Blair lied about WMD in Iraq.

But what no political party has ever done at a GE, is to commit treason to win a vote. And no political party has ever gone into a GE with a policy that their own analyses say will knock £1trn off our income over the next decade.

You want to discount those things after consideration, and still support Brexit?  Fine. That's your choice. But if you choose to just shrug your shoulders and ignore them then you've chosen not act like a grown up. And you've given up the right for your opinion to be taken seriously.

[Filo]

The most fascinating thing about this entire process has been to see how some people's obsession with winning means they are prepared to ignore treason, they're prepared to ignore being lied to and they are prepared to ignore the fact that we'll do spectacular damage to our economic future.

None of that matters. As long as they get their way.

It seems none of that matters to the PM, as “MV3” is having another go tomorrow, it’s just that it’s not being called MV3 because they’ve dropped the political declaration, I’m f**ked whatdifference that makes to the deal though. I honestly do think we are being run by loonatics!

[BillyStubbsTears]

It'll lose by 50+ votes tomorrow. And May will once again insist that it must be passed.

But, oddly, she'll continue to insist that a vote three years ago is sacrosanct for all time, and must not be put to the test again.

[Copps is Magic]

The Government are using this third vote as a stick to beat the Labour party with (despite the fact the DUP and groups of Tory MPs have already said they will vote against it).

They will trot out the line that the Labour front bench agreed with most of the withdrawal agreement in principle. Once it's defeated, they will offload the responsibility for the inevitable long extension of A50 onto the labour party, who they will say are frustrating the brexit process. This is sadly purely about politics. The absence of leadership will be filled with tactics for how the conservative party can most effectively appeal to the hard line 40% vote leave population.

[wilts rover]

They may well gain control of the Tory Party, but in doing so they will make it unelectable.

Outside of the Peoples Republic of South Yorkshire the Labour party are not that popular whoever are running the Conservatives. Even just over the border into North Lincs they wouldn't win here.

Despite them having an MP there?

[wilts rover]

The Government are using this third vote as a stick to beat the Labour party with (despite the fact the DUP and groups of Tory MPs have already said they will vote against it).

They will trot out the line that the Labour front bench agreed with most of the withdrawal agreement in principle. Once it's defeated, they will offload the responsibility for the inevitable long extension of A50 onto the labour party, who they will say are frustrating the brexit process. This is sadly purely about politics. The absence of leadership will be filled with tactics for how the conservative party can most effectively appeal to the hard line 40% vote leave population.

Now why would they do that unless they were planning a General Election in the near future? On 23rd May perhaps?

[wilts rover]

Good piece here on where the government went wrong during the negotiations.

https://www.politico.eu/article/how-uk-lost-brexit-eu-negotiation/

[Ldr]

So with the Tory party going loopy right  and the labour party going all trotsky again. Where do those of us that think moderate vote? As I've said before any person who can even consider voting for the 2 main parties shouldn't have a vote. Time for reform

[BillyStubbsTears]

Ldr

You won't believe me, but the Labour party's economic policy is bang middle of the road Theory of Capitalism 101.

Any Tory PM between 1955 and  Thatcher wouldn't have blinked at it.

It's the Tories that have a wild, radical, non-conventional economic policy. They are still obsessed with cutting the deficit and assuming that all will be well. Even though that concept has been as firmly debunked as idiocy, as any economic theory in history.

But yep, when it comes to foreign policy, I fully understand anyone having concerns about Labour.