Brexit deal

[Pancho Regan]

Well, it's taken 144 pages (not to mention the other threads on this subject) but thanks to Herbert Anchovy we've finally got some well-reasoned, sensible, coherently argued and understandable points in favour of leaving the EU.

For that HA, I thank and salute you.



(PS: apologies if those same points have been made previously but I'm buggered if I'm going to check!).

[SydneyRover]

Yes I agree but all those are minuscule in comparison to all the reasons for not leaving

[Pancho Regan]

Don't disagree with that Sydney, it's just a refreshing change to see some reasoned arguments from the Leavers viewpoint.

[SydneyRover]

It's a refreshing change to hear any reasoned arguments from the leave camp Pancho

[Metalmicky]

Not sure if this has been commented on...?

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1179164/eu-news-western-balkans-expansion-austria-albania-north-macedonia-brigitte-bierlein

I know that Daniel Kawczynski is a eurosceptic, but he makes the point....

"Countries like Poland and Hungary have a shock coming when the UK leaves because that will cut the EU's budget by 20 percent. "They could find themselves paying for Kosovo, Moldova and even Ukraine and the boot will be on the other foot."

Fair argument or one-sided opinion?

[Pancho Regan]

It's a refreshing change to hear any reasoned arguments from the leave camp Pancho

Yep, I think that was pretty much what I was saying.

[DonnyOsmond]

https://twitter.com/EmmaKennedy/status/1174702071691583488?s=19

And some people think these are the good guys.

[SydneyRover]

Just in the Government delivers a copy of its plans to the EU:

https://image.shutterstock.com/image-photo/burning-house-260nw-229782490.jpg

[Herbert Anchovy]

Not sure if this has been commented on...?

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1179164/eu-news-western-balkans-expansion-austria-albania-north-macedonia-brigitte-bierlein

I know that Daniel Kawczynski is a eurosceptic, but he makes the point....

"Countries like Poland and Hungary have a shock coming when the UK leaves because that will cut the EU's budget by 20 percent. "They could find themselves paying for Kosovo, Moldova and even Ukraine and the boot will be on the other foot."

Fair argument or one-sided opinion?

As ever with the press, there’s a kernel of truth in the story, but you have to wade through a tonne of b*llocks to find it!

From my understanding (and I’m happy to be corrected) the UK is one of only a handful of net contributors to the EU ie we pay in more than we receive back financially. Consequently there will be a revenue shortfall when we leave. This means the EU either has to cut back on spending or other member states should make up the shortfall. Depending on where you research (and who you choose to believe) the net annual contribution that the UK makes to the EU is £10 billion pounds. So, basically the EU will ‘lose’ £10 billion income per year. This is why, quite understandably, the EU wants a ‘divorce’ payment.

To further complicate things, the next round of budget and revenue negotiation for 2021 to 2027 are due to begin. This is where decisions are made on how much each state will contribute. Bearing in mind the EU will no longer have the UKs £10 billion annual payment AND the UK is one of only a few countries that doesn’t receive more than it contributes, this creates a big problem.

The EU’s opinion MAY be that countries such as Poland that have financially benefited enormously from EU membership may now need to step up and contribute significantly more to support less well off countries. This isn’t likely to go down very well at all and would likely make, what are already difficult and often acrimonious negotiations, even more challenging.

That’s how I understand it anyway, but as I said I’m happy to be corrected if not.

[BillyStubbsTears]

The UK's net contribution is about £20 per person in the EU.

I think they'll cope...

[Herbert Anchovy]

The UK's net contribution is about £20 per person in the EU.

I think they'll cope...

Perhaps. However one of the only other net contributors, Denmark, has already firmly set its stall out and is refusing to increase its contribution. I’m sure they’ll cope...but it’s going to be messy.

[Herbert Anchovy]

Yes I agree but all those are minuscule in comparison to all the reasons for not leaving

Sydney

As a genuine and unloaded question on my part, what would you say are the 5 primary advantages to the UK remaining in the EU that would be impossible for us to introduce as non members?

[BillyStubbsTears]

The UK's net contribution is about £20 per person in the EU.

I think they'll cope...

Perhaps. However one of the only other net contributors, Denmark, has already firmly set its stall out and is refusing to increase its contribution. I’m sure they’ll cope...but it’s going to be messy.

HA

The point is that we have consistently overestimated our own importance in this process.

We were assured that we held all the cards in negotiations with the EU. We didn't. We held zero cards.

We are told that the EU finances would fall apart without our enormous contribution. It won't.

[Herbert Anchovy]

The UK's net contribution is about £20 per person in the EU.

I think they'll cope...

Perhaps. However one of the only other net contributors, Denmark, has already firmly set its stall out and is refusing to increase its contribution. I’m sure they’ll cope...but it’s going to be messy.

HA

The point is that we have consistently overestimated our own importance in this process.

We were assured that we held all the cards in negotiations with the EU. We didn't. We held zero cards.

We are told that the EU finances would fall apart without our enormous contribution. It won't.

Billy

It’s the extreme assertions again that have polluted the whole Brexit debate isn’t it?

The EU finances are clearly not going to fall apart when we leave, and whoever claimed that is an idiot.

However, it depends how you define overstated doesn’t it? If our contributions meant relatively little to the EU they wouldn’t be so insistent on a ‘divorce’ payment would they?

When your a club of 28 members, and 19 of those members either take out equal or more than they pay in (in some cases considerably more) and your second largest contributor is taken out of the equation, it’s going to leave a very large Brexit sized hole in the finances, however much you try to mitigate its impact. You don’t have to do too much research to see where certain countries (Denmark, France, Poland for example) are already indicating that they’ve no appetite for increased contributions without some payback for them.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I'm not saying at all that our contributions mean little.

I'm say they don't mean remotely as much as many folk have assumed.

And here's the massive issue that has screwed up our entire approach to Brexit. To the EU,trading with us is it as important as keeping the Single Market and Customs Union strong. If that had been clear in 2016, then we'd have known that these idiots who insisted that the EU would roll over and give us whatever deal we wanted were either ignorant or deliberately lying.

Thing is,we no DO know that they were ignorant or lying back then. And here's the rub. They are now running the country.

[SydneyRover]

Yes I agree but all those are minuscule in comparison to all the reasons for not leaving

Sydney

As a genuine and unloaded question on my part, what would you say are the 5 primary advantages to the UK remaining in the EU that would be impossible for us to introduce as non members?

Tariff free trading with EU countries which I figure is one of the biggest advantages of being a member. The boost to trade with this alone would bury most of any advantages to leaving in financial terms. I think that Austerity will look like a walk on the park compared to what the cost will be over 10 years from point brexit and possibly longer.

The clout the EU has with making deals with non EU countries especially the US, I think Trump wants to separate us from the pack so he can screw us over and force us into a trade deal he could not otherwise implement if we were part of the EU. The tories have already shown us what they think of the NHS and when the treasury has nothing in it it would be just dandy for them to suggest that we can't afford to rebuild this or that hospital but there is this really nice US pharma/med insurance company that wants to help us out.

In Australia a lot of the large infrastructure contracts given to foreign countries/companies include deals where they can ring fence the site and bring in their own cheap labour to build the project, this is partly because we are a stand alone country and partly because the government is hard right wing.

Unlike a lot of brexiters I think that freedom of movement is a benefit to the UK and that the majority of them come to the UK to work hard and earn a living and makes Britain better in so many ways. I do not think that many British farmers and companies will survive without this pool of foreign labour and that the tories or whoever gets power following Brexit will find a way to give them access, in fact I think that most of the things that brexiters want will be denied to them by any incoming governments over time.

I can't give you a definitive list of things that can or cannot be done once any form of brexit happens and neither can the government, no one knows because there is no definitive contract that spells it out but I can hazard a guess that just about everything will cost more except over time British labour which will be screwed over by successive tory governments who will remove safeguards and reduce wages.

[BillyStubbsTears]

HA

There's one that I've made time and again which trumps every other argument.

Europe (us included) has a dreadful record of conflict and tyrrany.

No EU countries have ever started a war or been invaded or had a civil war whilst a member of the EU.

No EU country has ever had any form of Govt other than democracy whilst a member of the EU.

We just take that for granted, but it is a highly, highly unusual situation by historical standards.

Many of the politicians across Europe and the UK who are anti-EU want us to go back to a world of competing nations. I'm not saying they necessarily want conflict and instability, but the point is that the history of Europe when it hasn't had a unifying system is conflict and instability.

Nothing is more important than that fact.

[BillyStubbsTears]

HA.
On that topic, I'll refer you to these two posts..

https://www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=270252.msg863622#msg863622

https://www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=263860.msg817625#msg817625

I've never heard ANYONE who supports Brexit ever address these points.

[SydneyRover]

HA

There's one that I've made time and again which trumps every other argument.

Europe (us included) has a dreadful record of conflict and tyrrany.

No EU countries have ever started a war or been invaded or had a civil war whilst a member of the EU.

No EU country has ever had any form of Govt other than democracy whilst a member of the EU.

We just take that for granted, but it is a highly, highly unusual situation by historical standards.

I totally agree with all this but I don't think this will change in the immediate future bst but and this is a huge but if our leaving destabilises the EU and other countries leave then I too think we could descend into the bad old days very quickly.

I think the danger of other countries leaving would be in the shorter term say 2-3 years because in the longer term those countries will see all too plainly the disadvantage that the UK would be in after that time.

As an aside I visited the Occupation Museum in Riga which showed in stark detail what it's like to be isolated and vulnerable.

[bpoolrover]

https://news.sky.com/story/jean-claude-juncker-we-can-have-a-deal-and-brexit-will-happen-11814207 Maybe some movement by the eu?

[BillyStubbsTears]

No Bpool.

That's been the EU's position from the start.

If we come up with a deal that protects the Irish border without the backstop, they'll agree to it.

Nothing has changed at all.

[bpoolrover]

Progress would have been a better word sorry

[BillyStubbsTears]

How is it progress? It's exactly what they've been saying for 2 years.

[bpoolrover]

As junker says he has held talks with boris and they were positive talks i would say that is progress no?

[BillyStubbsTears]

That's politicking Bpool. He's going to big it up and be positive so he can say it's not his fadult when it goes tits up.

But the central issue still remains. If we don't propose something sensible in place of the backstop, there's no deal.

[bpoolrover]

Let’s hope they do then mate

[SydneyRover]

Looks like they are just toying with us then, holding back for the big surprise

[BillyStubbsTears]

Bpool.

I'll not hold my breath. It's been 3 and a half years since Johnson said it wasn't beyond the wit of man to Leave without f**king up the Irish border, and all he's said since is, "Err...well! Yes! Err...as the Romans would have said...err...yes! Technology! We'll err...we'll using the tornado of technology to...err...sweep away the gloom mongers, nay! the NAYSAYERS who...err....yes."

[foxbat]

and then came out with some cr@p in schoolboy Latin,
truly pathetic

[bpoolrover]

Time will tell I have a good feeling that there will be a deal but I’ve been wrong plenty of times🤷‍♂️