Brexit deal

[Bentley Bullet]

 I didn't vote in it. It was before I'd finally made my mind up to support leave as a matter of principle.

[wilts rover]

I actually think the chances of a deal have gone up in the past couple of weeks, even if that is from 0% to 10%.

There is going to be a GE in the next few months. Old 'die in a ditch' Johnson has staked his reputation and chance of 5 years of power on leaving the EU by 31st October. Farage is waiting with a shovel at the side of the ditch if he doesn't do it. The only possibilty he has of leaving on 31st October is with a deal.

Therefore the chances of a deal have gone up.

Yes, I think that's right.

Johnson will pivot back to the May deal if prevented from defaulting to a no deal exit.
This is why he is desperate for a new session of parliament...it can then be re-introduced.

He will need to tempt Labour rightists to support him, people like Kinnock and Flint, so the focus if on whether Labour will whip to policy or allow a free vote.

Any subsequent GE will then be badged up as the "keeping his word" project, despite the May deal being unsatisfactory to many.

And this is the paradox he is facing. The more amiable he makes his deal to attract the support of Labour MP's - the less likely the ERG are to vote for it - and to remove him as they did May.

[BillyStubbsTears]

It is a bit of a paradox isn't it.

Johnson himself is having trouble with it.

First he voted against May's deal.

Then he voted against May's deal again.

Then he voted for May's deal.

Then he said May's deal was anti-democratic.

Now he says a law that he's claims makes it more likely to have to accept May's deal is a surrender.

I wonder if he is having problems with other everyday tasks. Like remembering how many children he has fathered.

[IDM]

He probably wouldn’t remember his own arse if he wasn’t talking out of it if he wasn’t sat on it..

[SydneyRover]

I reckon bb is Cummings, it all makes sense when you think about it.

[Bentley Bullet]

Now now Syderney, just because I make sense doesn't mean to say I'm a top political advisor. Thanks for the compliment like!

[SydneyRover]

happy prorogations, hip hip ................

[SydneyRover]

It's got to be you bb Cummings is always on a wind-uo mission:

Cummings has also said serious threats of violence have been seen on both sides, adding that the “situation can only be resolved by parliament honouring its promise to respect the result” of the 2016 referendum.

People on all sides have said things that veered between unwise and very unpleasant, and sometimes criminal. That is true of people of the leave side and that’s true of people on the remain side.

People have been running around during the referendum campaign saying I was a Nazi, they run around for three years afterwards saying I am a criminal, and now a criminal Nazi.

And there are also a bunch of people on the Leave side who have said terrible things about remainers.

I also think there is a very important distinction between, on the one hand, a robust political discussion and debate, and threats of violence. Threats of violence are a completely different matter. They should be treated in a completely different matter; everyone should take those extremely seriously.

I know people on both sides of leave and remain who have had serious threats like that and it is obviously bad. In the end, the situation can only be resolved by parliament honouring its promise to respect the result.

[albie]

Well, they have decided to make it easy to know when you are being lied to brazenly.
Just listen out for the phrase "surrender bill". This is code for outrageous lie.

The idea is to appeal to an imaginary version of WW2, and pretend that the EU is the modern equivalent of the Nazi's fought by the allies.

No morals in this campaign.

[BillyStubbsTears]

That's breathtaking from Cummings.

He built the entire Leave campaign on a principle of identifying people who were likely to get fired up by negative propaganda about the EU, then targeting them with lies on everything from the £350m to Turks appearing in your doorstep and the EU being responsible for polar bears being killed.

He deliberately and knowingly poisoned the whole tenor of the debate and he more than anyone else in the country is responsible for the vitriol we now have.

For him to now claim that both sides are equally to blame is risible.

[bpoolrover]

What would people like to happen now? What would be fair to everyone not just what would be fair to what you believe in? Me personally have had enough of the whole thing brexit and politics, I like many others have resorted to name calling which is wrong so for me another referendum with remain or leave no deal on the ballot paper while I think remain would win I also believe most of the leave voters would just carry on there normal lives and after a couple of weeks not much more would be said, yes it would be different with politicians but for me it’s the only answer now

[BillyStubbsTears]

Bpool.

I'd have taken a sensible deal if it had been on the cards 2 years ago. We could have left the political structures of the EU and stayed in the SM and CU. That would have limited the economic loss and there'd have been no problem in Ireland.

There was a chance for politicians to agree to that but it's long gone now. And like you, I long for an end to the toxic atmosphere in the country.

Like you, I can't see any way out without a Referendum on exact, specific outcomes. If we did that and voted for No Deal, in the full understanding of what that meant, I'd be horrified but I'd accept it.

[albie]

BST,

I have a sneeking feeling that if Corbyn gets to renegotiate a deal with the EU, it will be a Norway plus clone that emerges.

We may not have seen the end of it....the important question is whether Labour would support it as a party or not?

I reckon a free vote might be the least damaging solution.

[Donnywolf]

The original vote says 106 members voted, but if you add up the numbers they total 108. Dodgy dealings?!!

I think we can account for at least one of those, BB.  First you voted Remain, then got titty on and voted Leave.

I will "take" the other

Having lost in 75 by voting Leave I was on the losing side

This time2016 I voted Remain (seemingly bucking the OAP stance) and lost again

So I voted twice in this Vote just so I could say I had been on the winning side at least once 

[DonnyOsmond]

What would people like to happen now? What would be fair to everyone not just what would be fair to what you believe in? Me personally have had enough of the whole thing brexit and politics, I like many others have resorted to name calling which is wrong so for me another referendum with remain or leave no deal on the ballot paper while I think remain would win I also believe most of the leave voters would just carry on there normal lives and after a couple of weeks not much more would be said, yes it would be different with politicians but for me it’s the only answer now

That's too polar extremes. As a Remainer we need Brexit with a decent deal, so that both sides can be somewhat pleased. We should never do the thing that leads to stockpiling of food and medicine and even running out of life saving drugs in some cases.

[Donnywolf]

What would people like to happen now? What would be fair to everyone not just what would be fair to what you believe in? Me personally have had enough of the whole thing brexit and politics, I like many others have resorted to name calling which is wrong so for me another referendum with remain or leave no deal on the ballot paper while I think remain would win I also believe most of the leave voters would just carry on there normal lives and after a couple of weeks not much more would be said, yes it would be different with politicians but for me it’s the only answer now

I will answer that in a way as you say NOT what I want but to try to answer in a fair way in a bid to solve the issue and move on (mega difficult imo and getting worse by the day)

At the time of the Referendum in 2016 a small majority of those who could be bothered to Vote (only 75 per cent ish of those entitled to vote did so ) produced a vote to leave by simply putting an X against LEAVE

From that moment MPs and others have tried to justify / explain what those voting Leave actually wanted - and they cant possibly know any more than I can. They voted to Leave - simple as that

We have had mud slinging - and worse regarding the campaign for the Leave side - in particular its funding - and on the upside we as a nation have learnt more (so much much more) about the benefits and pitfalls of leaving the EU.

The Benefits are mostly tangible - we have them now - and they can be shown / proven whereasmost of  the pitfalls cannot really be shown because we are still in the EU and only years will / would tell if we were right to Leave if indeed we do. We are approximating rather than being factual.

So I would say we need to have a Deal (or 2 or even 3) to put back to the people and alongside should be an option to Remain.

If the number of votes cast to Remain is greater than the combined total of the 1, 2 or 3 options to Leave then we should Remain (and let the people we elected as MPs "try to bring the Country together" - and I say good luck with that !

However if the combined number of Votes cast for the Leave options be that 1, 2 or 3 "deals" total more than Remain then that is that . We would have to accept that the Will of the British people is irrevocably to Leave and the Govt should then beaver away to produce a final once and for all departure from the EU by using the best Option or amalgamation of options

They should then work away to bring about as speedy an exit as possible and again work away to "bring the Country back together" - and again good luck with that


After that is all settled I hope the people turn on the Political situation and as a minimum introduce PR in order to try to decrease extremisim of any kind - we manage to bring about "world peace" and work away at getting Rovers in the Premiership (and of the 3 that looks the most likely to happen first)
 

[wilts rover]

What would people like to happen now? What would be fair to everyone not just what would be fair to what you believe in? Me personally have had enough of the whole thing brexit and politics, I like many others have resorted to name calling which is wrong so for me another referendum with remain or leave no deal on the ballot paper while I think remain would win I also believe most of the leave voters would just carry on there normal lives and after a couple of weeks not much more would be said, yes it would be different with politicians but for me it’s the only answer now

You are right in that people & politicians have to start negotiating together rather than trying to drive one another apart. It's become about identity rather than what is best for the country's economy or people's lives.

Sorry but there can't be No Deal. The three issues (the money we owe, citizens' rights and the Irish border) have to be resolved at some point. It's just a case of whether we want to be doing that with a loss of exports, food & medicine shortages and petrol rationing or acting sensibly.

[wilts rover]

A bit of analysis on whether or not Johnson is serious about getting a deal - and if so what that may look like here:

https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2019/0927/1078626-brexit-supreme-court/

[idler]

An interesting read, worrying too.

[Not Now Kato]

An interesting read, worrying too.

Indeed.

[Not Now Kato]

I picked this up on another site.  It's well worth reading both letters in the link.
 

Meanwhile in yet another sign of the disaster unfurling before our eyes. The senior civil servant who works for Michael Gove has quit. Matthew Coats the Director general for EU Exit Implementation has quit his job just weeks ahead of 31st October. His particular expertise was Border Delivery and he was the third Director General for this area in as many months. High turnover in critical projects is never a positive sign for the delivery of such projects.

In parallel our clueless Brexit Secretary has written to Michael Barnier. You can read his letter and Michael Barnier's response https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/brexit-preparedness-correspondence-with-the-eu-institutions
The letter from Barclay is truly stunning in that he admits that the UK is not ready for no deal and is asking the EU for help in coming up with an exit plan that can be implemented in four weeks. No wonder Matthew Coats decided to bail out.

[Glyn_Wigley]

I picked this up on another site.  It's well worth reading both letters in the link.
 

Meanwhile in yet another sign of the disaster unfurling before our eyes. The senior civil servant who works for Michael Gove has quit. Matthew Coats the Director general for EU Exit Implementation has quit his job just weeks ahead of 31st October. His particular expertise was Border Delivery and he was the third Director General for this area in as many months. High turnover in critical projects is never a positive sign for the delivery of such projects.

In parallel our clueless Brexit Secretary has written to Michael Barnier. You can read his letter and Michael Barnier's response https://www.gov.uk/government/public...u-institutions
The letter from Barclay is truly stunning in that he admits that the UK is not ready for no deal and is asking the EU for help in coming up with an exit plan that can be implemented in four weeks. No wonder Matthew Coats decided to bail out.

The link doesn't work.

[SydneyRover]

What would people like to happen now? What would be fair to everyone not just what would be fair to what you believe in? Me personally have had enough of the whole thing brexit and politics, I like many others have resorted to name calling which is wrong so for me another referendum with remain or leave no deal on the ballot paper while I think remain would win I also believe most of the leave voters would just carry on there normal lives and after a couple of weeks not much more would be said, yes it would be different with politicians but for me it’s the only answer now

I will answer that in a way as you say NOT what I want but to try to answer in a fair way in a bid to solve the issue and move on (mega difficult imo and getting worse by the day)

At the time of the Referendum in 2016 a small majority of those who could be bothered to Vote (only 75 per cent ish of those entitled to vote did so ) produced a vote to leave by simply putting an X against LEAVE

From that moment MPs and others have tried to justify / explain what those voting Leave actually wanted - and they cant possibly know any more than I can. They voted to Leave - simple as that

We have had mud slinging - and worse regarding the campaign for the Leave side - in particular its funding - and on the upside we as a nation have learnt more (so much much more) about the benefits and pitfalls of leaving the EU.

The Benefits are mostly tangible - we have them now - and they can be shown / proven whereasmost of  the pitfalls cannot really be shown because we are still in the EU and only years will / would tell if we were right to Leave if indeed we do. We are approximating rather than being factual.

So I would say we need to have a Deal (or 2 or even 3) to put back to the people and alongside should be an option to Remain.

If the number of votes cast to Remain is greater than the combined total of the 1, 2 or 3 options to Leave then we should Remain (and let the people we elected as MPs "try to bring the Country together" - and I say good luck with that !

However if the combined number of Votes cast for the Leave options be that 1, 2 or 3 "deals" total more than Remain then that is that . We would have to accept that the Will of the British people is irrevocably to Leave and the Govt should then beaver away to produce a final once and for all departure from the EU by using the best Option or amalgamation of options

They should then work away to bring about as speedy an exit as possible and again work away to "bring the Country back together" - and again good luck with that


After that is all settled I hope the people turn on the Political situation and as a minimum introduce PR in order to try to decrease extremisim of any kind - we manage to bring about "world peace" and work away at getting Rovers in the Premiership (and of the 3 that looks the most likely to happen first)

those that voted leave presumably wanted what was promised, they wanted 350m to put into the NHS every week wanted a great deal where the EU gave us everything but it cost us nothing where we took back control of everything? etc etc

[Not Now Kato]

I picked this up on another site.  It's well worth reading both letters in the link.
 

Meanwhile in yet another sign of the disaster unfurling before our eyes. The senior civil servant who works for Michael Gove has quit. Matthew Coats the Director general for EU Exit Implementation has quit his job just weeks ahead of 31st October. His particular expertise was Border Delivery and he was the third Director General for this area in as many months. High turnover in critical projects is never a positive sign for the delivery of such projects.

In parallel our clueless Brexit Secretary has written to Michael Barnier. You can read his letter and Michael Barnier's response https://www.gov.uk/government/public...u-institutions
The letter from Barclay is truly stunning in that he admits that the UK is not ready for no deal and is asking the EU for help in coming up with an exit plan that can be implemented in four weeks. No wonder Matthew Coats decided to bail out.

The link doesn't work.

Strange, it does for me.
 
Here's another link  https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/brexit-preparedness-correspondence-with-the-eu-institutions
 
HTH 
 
Edited to say that I've modified the link in my original post in case others experience problems in opening it.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Thanks, it works now.

Barclay's letter is just anodyne pleasantries that says bugger all of substance. Well, fine words butter no parsnips.

[Not Now Kato]

Thanks, it works now.

Barclay's letter is just anodyne pleasantries that says bugger all of substance. Well, fine words butter no parsnips.

Indeed, anodyne pleasantries saying nothing, with a short paragraph stuck in at the end effectively saying 'please sir, can we go and talk to others in your club behind your back, it would help us no end if we could bypass official negotiations?'. Of course, Barnier saw straight through it - hence his short sharp reply.

[SydneyRover]

The Tele, this should be fascinating viewing, snort, chuck.

''On the second day of the Conservative Party Conference, The Telegraph's Christopher Hope will  interview Leader of the House of Commons, Jacob Rees-Mogg,  and former Justice secretary David Gauke, during a live edition of Chopper’s Brexit Podcast.

Join our live stream above on this page to watch him explain how the party can deliver on their conference slogan: “Get Brexit Done”, amid growing political chaos, and reflect on what will happen if they don’t''

[SydneyRover]

This is one of the main reasons for sticking with the EU?

Sweden’s navy HQ is returning to a vast underground cold-war fortress designed to withstand a nuclear attack, in what has been seen as a defensive move against a resurgent Russia.

After a 25-year absence, the navy will once again be commanded from beneath billions of tonnes of granite as the country strives to build up its defences in response to the perceived threat from Moscow.

The top secret naval base on Muskö, about 25 miles (40km) from Stockholm, resembles a cross between Tracy Island from Thunderbirds and the film set of You Only Live Twice, where James Bond grappled with arch villain Ernst Blofeld in his headquarters beneath a volcano.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/30/swedish-navy-returns-to-vast-underground-hq-amid-russia-fears

[BillyStubbsTears]

Proper serious now.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49890034

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Proper serious now.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49890034

Of course any normal person knows the tesco deli butter pastry sausage rolls are the best (now only available at certain bloody stores)