Brexit deal

[BillyStubbsTears]

So it appears that the deal that is emerging is identical in principle to the one that May agreed with the EU in November 2018, and which the ERG and DUP said was unacceptable. (That's the one before the backstop was introduced.)

There'll be plenty of flannel claiming it's fundamentally different, which you can buy into if that's what you want. But it's the same deal.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Meanwhile, the UK economy continues t tank under the Tories.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1184097257693569027

Remember, Osborne said they would eliminate the deficit by 2015. Sensible economists said that wasn't possible. The IMF is now saying the deficit still won't be eliminated by 2024...

[BillyStubbsTears]

...the same sensible economists also said that the Austerity Osborne brought in to try to bring the deficit down would hammer the economy.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1184097608761040897

The IMF is now saying our economic growth won't hit 1.5% this side of 2024.

Remember, our average growth from 1950 to 2010, taking into account every recession and recovery was 2.3%. Since then, it's only matched that in ONE year, when Osborne engineered a mini-boom before the 2015 election.

If the IMF are right, by 2024, we'll have had 14 years of way below par growth. That sums to...

...are you sitting down because this is horrifying...

£2 TRILLION of lost economic output.

£32,000 for every person in the country. Lost. Forever. Because of the incompetence of the Tories. Utterly avoidable if we'd followed sensible economics after the Great Crash.

Thirty two grand for every man woman and child in the country.

[BillyStubbsTears]

And by the way, the same sensible economists who predicted that catastrophe have been telling you for the past 4 years that Brexit will be a disaster for the economy. But Johnson, Rees-Mogg, Duncan-Smith and Farage say they are wrong.

Who do you believe? Really, in your heart of hearts?

[Donnywolf]

So it appears that the deal that is emerging is identical in principle to the one that May agreed with the EU in November 2018, and which the ERG and DUP said was unacceptable. (That's the one before the backstop was introduced.)

There'll be plenty of flannel claiming it's fundamentally different, which you can buy into if that's what you want. But it's the same deal.

Bigger sweetener for the DUP and their 292,000 votes and 10 seats ?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Be interesting to see if the DUP can be bought.

The deal will categorically treat NI differently to the rest of the UK. Last year, Foster said that was a blood-red line (a disgrace for an NI politician to say but there you go.) If they now accept this...

[Donnywolf]

.... will fit in nicely with Johnson and his about faces

Here another

How come no UK journalists have bothered to dig this out: @BorisJohnson saying previously he'd EAT his ID if he was ever asked to produce it.
He's just announced in Queen's speech that ID will have to be shown to vote.
Journalists! Do. Your. Frigging. Job.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/3613116/Ask-to-see-my-ID-card-and-Ill-eat-it.html …

[BillyStubbsTears]

Hang on. Deal on hold.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50072748

I'd bet the DUP has said no.

[Muttley]

I still hang my head in despair at what is the biggest single political mess I have lived through WHICHEVER way you personally have voted.

I still hate people saying as Ian Duncan Smith did this morning " people write to me and talk to me and stop me on the street and just say - "lets just get this done" we have had a vote and we want it finished NOW"

I suspect he knows (or suspects that if a second Referendum turns up) the likely outcome to "finish it" would end in a Remain vote. The latest Poll of Polls shows Remain if offered would come out somewhere like 54 - 46 and thats why that abysmal bloke ......Baker MP just wants a "tolerable" deal that he and others can vote for rather than lose the prize they have worked , schemed and subverted the last Referendums result for

What a selfish git he and others like him are. Throw us to the Wolves so he / they can cheer their own greatness

I'm not so sure the polls at all show that.  The biggest was a Comres poll published this morning of 26000 people (big for a poll) which did not at all show that (42% for remain, 50% leave (out of 2 options), 8% don't knows.  But it is just one poll.

But as you allude to, they've combined 2 leave options - the actual poll results were@
Leave with no deal - 20%
Leave with a deal - 30%
Remain - 42%
Don't know - 8%

Obviously if people were presented with a binary choice between Remain and Leave with no deal, then a significant proportion of the 30% who said Leave with a deal would actually switch to Remain.

So if you assume that 10% of that 30% are Remain and 20% are Leave, then you get Remain 52% and Leave 40% and Don't know 8%.

One thing that stood out in the survey was that of those surveyed who said that they hadn't voted in the 2016 referendum, 63% of them would ow favour the UK remaining in the EU.

https://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/ComRes_ITN_Brexit-Referendum-Poll_Oct-19-2.pdf

[DonnyOsmond]

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1184529443471142913?s=19

Well done Brexiteers, the IRA are back.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1184529443471142913?s=19

Well done Brexiteers, the IRA are back.

Really?  Given there is no plan for it he whole story is rubbish isnt it?

Perhaps we should all see what the actual deal is if there is one first...

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

I still hang my head in despair at what is the biggest single political mess I have lived through WHICHEVER way you personally have voted.

I still hate people saying as Ian Duncan Smith did this morning " people write to me and talk to me and stop me on the street and just say - "lets just get this done" we have had a vote and we want it finished NOW"

I suspect he knows (or suspects that if a second Referendum turns up) the likely outcome to "finish it" would end in a Remain vote. The latest Poll of Polls shows Remain if offered would come out somewhere like 54 - 46 and thats why that abysmal bloke ......Baker MP just wants a "tolerable" deal that he and others can vote for rather than lose the prize they have worked , schemed and subverted the last Referendums result for

What a selfish git he and others like him are. Throw us to the Wolves so he / they can cheer their own greatness

I'm not so sure the polls at all show that.  The biggest was a Comres poll published this morning of 26000 people (big for a poll) which did not at all show that (42% for remain, 50% leave (out of 2 options), 8% don't knows.  But it is just one poll.

I have seen (couldnt be bothered to read) this really long piece by Prof Curtice - the bloke they have on for every election these days

This was the bit I focussed on (after he talked about it on TV this morning) :



True, as has been the position ever since our poll of polls series began at the beginning of 2018, the balance of support is now tilted in favour of Remain rather than, as in the referendum, in favour of Leave.  Indeed, the current average of Remain 52%, Leave 48% is the exact mirror image of what emerged from the ballot boxes in June 2016.

However, this does not mean that there is a discernible, key group of Leave voters who have changed their minds about Brexit. That much becomes clear if, as in the table below, we examine separately the current vote intentions of those who voted Remain in 2016 and those who backed Leave. In both cases over 85% say they would vote exactly the same way as they did in 2016. The sound and fury of the last three years has left the vast majority of voters unmoved. And although 8% of those who backed Leave say that they would now vote Remain, they are counterbalanced by 8% of Remain supporters who indicate that they would now support Leave.

The principal reason why public opinion is now tilted towards Remain is because, as we have noted before, those who did not vote three years ago prefer Remain to Leave by around two to one (if they express a view at all). In part, at least, this reflects the fact that this group of abstainers consists disproportionately of younger voters who in general are more likely to back Remain. However, it also suggests that, far from being certain to produce a majority for Remain, the outcome of a second referendum could turn on the ability or otherwise of the Remain side to mobilise the support of a group of voters who cannot necessarily be relied upon to vote at all

... and if you or anybody else has too much time on their hands it comes from this monster article.

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/author/johncurtice/

I did actually here him interviewed. Another key thing he said was around would these people actually vote? They usually dont.

I do feel that parliament will do everything they possibly can to stop a deal, something I suspect the pm is not too worried about.

[SydneyRover]

I'm just hoping that none of this is true, but with a treacherous bas**rd like johnson ..................

Labour MP Stella Creasy has raised suspicions that the DUP are striking a Brexit bargain with the government that will include an attempt to stop expected abortion rights in Northern Ireland.

    stellacreasy (@stellacreasy)

    So that’s deal government has done to get @DUPleader support this week- they are going to wash their hands of responsibility to regulate abortion in Northern Ireland. It’s not in law they can whatever they say. Shameful using women as bargaining chips! #brexithaos #trustwomen
    October 16, 2019

    stellacreasy (@stellacreasy)

    Now in parliament to try to find out why all of a sudden government trying to get Northern Ireland assembly up and running and using the possibility of stopping equal abortion access in Northern Ireland as bargaining chip…. #brexithaos #trustwomen
    October 16, 2019

[BillyStubbsTears]

https://mobile.twitter.com/JimMFelton/status/1184461544064765957

https://mobile.twitter.com/biscuitsgod/status/1184457734336471045

Just how? How can anyone even for a second consider voting for him? How little self-respect must you have to allow yourself to be bullshitted like this and still support him?

[wilts rover]

Doesn't this comment sum up where we are - and where we are going:

part of the problem here is that the final stages of closing his deal require various people to trust Boris Johnson, and too many of them have actually met him.

https://twitter.com/rafaelbehr/status/1184536876738400262

[Donnywolf]

DUP have thrown their toys out at the 11th hour - and will still work with the Govet ....blah blah blah

Is that another bargaining tool to get ever MORE cash from Westminster ?

How much did they wring out for their support in forming a Tory Govt in first plave and secondly when the May deal was constructed ?

The 295000 people who voted for them (and got them 10 seats) could have all retired I bet having shared the booty out

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Potentially is for them or that they wont back a deal.

That all leaves an extension and then an election?  Given the polls and again this morning labour turning on itself and I doubt Boris will feel too worried.

[SydneyRover]

Is labour turning on itself again this morning or is it just the press winding it up, do you have a link bfyp?

[BillyStubbsTears]

1 MP who was facing deselection leaves the party and that's a disaster.

21 Tory MPs get booted out last month including two ex-Chancellors and it's no big deal.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

1 MP who was facing deselection leaves the party and that's a disaster.

21 Tory MPs get booted out last month including two ex-Chancellors and it's no big deal.

You think it plays well to the electorate that more than one labour MP has criticised the guy they'll be campaigning to make PM?  She was ultimately hugely damning aswell.  You only have to look on social media and labour activists are slamming her, shouldn't they actually listen to what she's saying?  So much for tolerance etc.

The Tory MP's getting booted out was and remains a problem for them also, how can it not be?



Of course on brexit there are a number of other elements to consider.  Will the DUP move?  This may be their last shot at gaining anything and will BJ then get the vote through.

Labour will go for a referendum ammendment no doubt, will that get through?  It may do and it may well win, what goes on the ballot etc, would the government allow it, can they not?  What will the EU make of it?

Big mess to come no doubt.

It will also be interesting to see who votes for and against a Saturday sitting given the previous complaints of parliament not having a say.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

There is a deal, but not yet a DUP, this will be dramatic.

I suspect BST will say Johnson wants to lose the vote and given he's gone without the DUP, you'd be hard pushed to disagree.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I don't thin he wants to lose a vote. That looks humiliating. If the DUP aren't on board, this won't go to a vote in the Commons. He'll say he tried his best but the EU wouldn't move on the final points.

[IDM]

IMHO Johnson wants no deal and to be able to blame anyone else but himself.

This latest deal faces voting down in parliament and I reckon BJ will pull the “it wasn’t me” tabloid-esque headlines to gain sympathy with the large parts of the public who don’t seem to look beyond the headlines..

[DonnyOsmond]

It is his fault for not discussing with the other parties to find a deal a majority would vote for. It's always been about the DUP and ERG.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Maybe BST that would be the sensible view.  Also IDM, BJ doesn't want no deal, he's not that stupid and if he is backed by money men as is often said that would never work, even with shorting there's no sensible market view that makes money out of that.

They are saying they're pushing it for Saturday, maybe he has the numbers, maybe he's gambling or maybe he has a rabbit up his sleave.  Perhaps the EU will say it's this or no deal and in that circumstance he may get it through.  I haven't read it so don't know what the details are, we will find out.

I do disagree with Corbyn's stance on this changing standards.  The standards only change if a government change them, if he's that confident, this should be his chance to make them even better and achieve his policies....

[selby]

  It has to get through our parliament, and the EU parliament with lot's of new MEP's. If it is not agreed he will play the blame game, and it could be the hard Brexit.
  The opposition are playing with fire, and probably their future as credible parties with much of the electorate, the popular press will vilify them and some mud will stick.
   They for months have called Bojo a liar about wanting a deal, he has kicked the bucket from under their feet, the onus and pressure is all on them.  A general election and leave without a deal is still on the agenda, and the Brexit party in the House of Commons with MP's.

[BillyStubbsTears]

From the BBC website.

"Michel Barnier tells the press conference there are four main elements to the part of the Brexit deal concerning Northern Ireland:

1.The island will remain aligned to a limited set of EU rules, meaning goods will be checked on entry to the island, rather than across a border on the island.

2. Northern Ireland will remain in the UK's customs territory, benefiting from the UK's future trade policy. but it will also remain an entry point into the single market.

3. Mr Barnier did not go into detail about what has been decided about VAT - a key sticking point of the deal for the DUP - but he says: "On this point also we have maintained the integrity of the single market but also satisfied the UK's legitimate wishes"

4 Four years after the enforcement of the deal, the elected representatives of Northern Ireland will be able to vote on whether or not to keep the arrangements in place."

So. In other words, this is the deal that May was in the verge of agreeing last year when the DUP said it was unacceptable.

And points 1 and 2 are precisely what Johnson was saying just 4 months ago were things that no Conservative govt could or should agree.

And that's a success is it?

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

It reads to me like a compromise, some wins, some not.  It feels like a fairly sensible deal on the face of it no?

[tommy toes]

This deal is basically Teresa May's deal with a slipshod arrangement for NI.
I can't see how it will get through Parliament.

[selby]

  The pressure to accept I think will come from the EU, industry abroad are just as fed up as ours, I think they will say that this is it accept or go to no deal at the end of the month.