Touching Distance

[BillyStubbsTears]

Getting close now lads and lasses. Been saying for weeks that 84 points will be ample to take 2nd place and that's looking more likely by the week.

To top 84 points:

Bournemouth must win all 4 games

Brentford must lose no more than 3 points from 18

Sheff Utd must lose no more than 5 points from 21.

And of course Sheff Utd and Brentford must still play each other.

Three wins from 5 should do the job. Put in another 3 performances like today's and that'll be job done.


But for the more pessimistic, here's a thought. 4 more wins would give us 87 points. No two other sides could top 87 points. Sheff Utd could get 90. Brentford could get 88. But both of them can't pick up three points when they play each other. The worst case scenario for us is Brentford winning every remaining game and Sheff Utd winning every one apart from the Brentford game. Then Brentford would have 88 points and Sheff Utd 87. And if anyone seriously thinks that series of results is going to happen, get down the bookies because you'd make a hundred thousand quid for a pound stake. In fact, I expect both of those teams to drop points in Saturday - Sheff Utd at Walsall and Brentford at Coventry.

[philsky]

Getting close now lads and lasses. Been saying for weeks that 84 points will be ample to take 2nd place and that's looking more likely by the week.

To top 84 points:

Bournemouth must win all 4 games

Brentford must lose no more than 3 points from 18

Sheff Utd must lose no more than 5 points from 21.

And of course Sheff Utd and Brentford must still play each other.

Three wins from 5 should do the job. Put in another 3 performances like today's and that'll be job done.


But for the more pessimistic, here's a thought. 4 more wins would give us 87 points. No two other sides could top 87 points. Sheff Utd could get 90. Brentford could get 88. But both of them can't pick up three points when they play each other. The worst case scenario for us is Brentford winning every remaining game and Sheff Utd winning every one apart from the Brentford game. Then Brentford would have 88 points and Sheff Utd 87. And if anyone seriously thinks that series of results is going to happen, get down the bookies because you'd make a hundred thousand quid for a pound stake. In fact, I expect both of those teams to drop points in Saturday - Sheff Utd at Walsall and Brentford at Coventry.

BST; i started doing this earlier.

Opened a bottle of wine when i though three wins and a draw would do...gave up

[Al4475]

And if anyone seriously thinks that series of results is going to happen, get down the bookies because you'd make a hundred thousand quid for a pound stake.

I think I'll have a Fiver on that just in case!
 

Which bookies might I find that in BST?

[hoolahoop]

Starting to taste it now Billy , I'll be dusting down that bottle of champers ready for the celebrations. 

[BillyStubbsTears]

AI.

Dunno. I was just guessing. It means 12 results must all be called correctly, including some which will be a long way longer than evens. So I guessed an average of 6/4 against. That'd give odds of 60,000/1 which I conveniently rounded up to 100k!

[Al4475]

LOL
I wasn't really gonna do it anyhow - not a betting man myself!
Cheers anyhow!
 

[DonnyBazR0ver]

I'll stick with BST on the 84 point mark. The way things are going only 2 other teams will scrape in to the 80s so 82 might be good enough.

We want to be going in to the last game with Promotion secured at least though.

[RobTheRover]

Tell you what, if the last matches mean (say) us, Brentford, the Blunts or Bornmuff can get into the top 2, we ought too call Norris McWhirter for the record for "Most arses doing the 5p/50p dance in unison"

[PDX_Rover]

Touching cloth

[DRFCBRADFORD]

crewe will determine this league they have to play

us
sheff u
brentford
swindon
walsall
yeovil

[andysly]

Nasty last month for the Alex

[Al4475]

DRFCBRADFORD

crewe will determine this league they have to play

us
sheff u
brentford
swindon
walsall
yeovil

Portsmouth too will have had a big say: Four points from us and Tranmere recently and still to play Brentford and The Blunts

[RedJ]

They bloody owe us after the debacle last season!

[Mr1Croft]

I've been looking at the table in a little detail and because of the games in hand Brentford and Sheffield United have the earliest we can be promoted is the Crewe game, but the odds of every team below us dropping points (apart from Swindon against Sheff U) and us winning is very small, which means that it is more favorable we will be promoted on one of these 3 days:

Tuesday 16th April: The Brentford vs Sheff U game and the Crewe vs Swindon game.

Saturday 20th April: Notts County game.

Tuesday 23rd April: The Crewe vs Sheff U game.

If all goes to plan on the 20th we will win promotion in front of our own fans with only Sheff U being able to catch us, but after drawing/Losing against Crewe on the Tuesday we visit Brentford on the final day already champions!

[BillyStubbsTears]

Crofty

I agree that it's difficult for us to be promoted on the day of the Crewe game, but it's maybe not quite as difficult as you imagine. The number of points our competitors have to drop is actually quite small.

Consider the following:

Assume we win our next three matches (Tranmere (H), Carlisle(H) and Crewe (A)). All eminently do-able.

Then assume Brentford draw two of their next 3 (Coventry(A), Crewe(A) Portsmouth (H)). Probably more likely than not given Brentford's very poor away record.

Assume Sheff Utd get two draws and a win from their next 3 (Walsall (A), Crawley(H), Swindon(H)). Perfectly possible.

Assume Bournemouth fail to win one of their next 2 (NottsC (H), Shrewsbury(A)). Perhaps unlikely, but as I keep saying, they WILL drop some points before the end of the season.

In that situation, we would have 84 points. The maximum that Bournemouth could get would be 82. The maximum that Swindon could get (if they had won every match) would be 83, so forget them. Sheff Utd could get 86 and Brentford 84. BUT, they still have to play each other. So, if Brentford were to win that match and keep on track to get 84 points, the maximum the Blades could get would be 83 and so only Brentford could catch us. If the Blades were to win or draw that match, Brentford could then no longer catch us, and only the Blades could top us. Ergo, we would be promoted.

So there you go.

We win the next two.
Blades drop a point away at Walsall or at home to Crawley.
Brentford drop a point at Coventry or at Crewe.
Bournemouth drop a point at home to NottsC (who have a decent away record)

We then go into the Crewe match knowing that if we win, the Blades don't beat Swindon and Brentford don;t beat Portsmouth, we are up.

[Filo]

Champions would be the icing on the cake, for now I`ll settle for the cake without icing, not as nice but still sweet enough.

[philsky]

Crofty

I agree that it's difficult for us to be promoted on the day of the Crewe game, but it's maybe not quite as difficult as you imagine. The number of points our competitors have to drop is actually quite small.

Consider the following:

Assume we win our next three matches (Tranmere (H), Carlisle(H) and Crewe (A)). All eminently do-able.

Then assume Brentford draw two of their next 3 (Coventry(A), Crewe(A) Portsmouth (H)). Probably more likely than not given Brentford's very poor away record.

Assume Sheff Utd get two draws and a win from their next 3 (Walsall (A), Crawley(H), Swindon(H)). Perfectly possible.

Assume Bournemouth fail to win one of their next 2 (NottsC (H), Shrewsbury(A)). Perhaps unlikely, but as I keep saying, they WILL drop some points before the end of the season.

In that situation, we would have 84 points. The maximum that Bournemouth could get would be 82. The maximum that Swindon could get (if they had won every match) would be 83, so forget them. Sheff Utd could get 86 and Brentford 84. BUT, they still have to play each other. So, if Brentford were to win that match and keep on track to get 84 points, the maximum the Blades could get would be 83 and so only Brentford could catch us. If the Blades were to win or draw that match, Brentford could then no longer catch us, and only the Blades could top us. Ergo, we would be promoted.

So there you go.

We win the next two.
Blades drop a point away at Walsall or at home to Crawley.
Brentford drop a point at Coventry or at Crewe.
Bournemouth drop a point at home to NottsC (who have a decent away record)

We then go into the Crewe match knowing that if we win, the Blades don't beat Swindon and Brentford don;t beat Portsmouth, we are up.

BST; say that again......but slowly this time :-)

[The Red Baron]

Nasty last month for the Alex

I'm hoping we get them on the post-Wembley rebound.

[andysly]

It'd be nice if they won and went on piss for the week.

[BigH]

Just like we did...

[RobTheRover]

Think Birmingham after their Wembley appearance

[RobbieDRFC]

As BST said 84 I believe 84 points will be enough to see us up.

Rovers would need 3 points from 6 achieve this.
Bournmouth would need 6 Points from 6.
Brentford 7 points from 9 ( having to play Sheff utd and the Rovers)
Sheff Utd 11 points from 12 (Once again having to playing Brentford)

The game on Tuesday will be interesting as that will now put the top 2 positions down to three teams, on Saturday, when rovers get a win and hopefully 1 of the competition slip up then we will be up.

Hope the math is reliable. 

[RobTheRover]

Sheff U cant get 11 points.  They could get 10 or 12, but not 11

[RobbieDRFC]

The post was aimed at what they need to get 84 points?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Sheff U cant get 11 points.  They could get 10 or 12, but not 11

A pedant speaks.

Actually, most runs of 4 games, Sheff Utd can't get 11 shots in.

[RobTheRover]

Yeah, I know.  I'm saying anything less than all victories means they fail in that objective.

I kind of missed Danny Wlson on the radio tonight with his half baked "head in the sand" positivity.

[MachoMadness]

All that matters is that we win our games. Play like we did today and we won't have much trouble. I can't see every team in and around us winning all those games, so hopefully we can hold our nerve and do the job on Saturday. Bournemouth are due a slip up, and one of Brentford or the Blades will get one on Tuesday.

[RobbieDRFC]

This time next week we will be up, going to Brentford to play for the Championship!

[bigbadjack]

Touching distance?? Touching cloth more like

[RobbieDRFC]

Beauty of football, went from nervous to p****d off to over the moon in the space of 20 minutes!