Viking Supporters Co-operative
Viking Chat => Viking Chat => Topic started by: Filo on February 05, 2022, 06:58:09 pm
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Unlikely as survival is, I think the players should come out to The Great Escape tune from now until the end of the season, a reminder that it’s still on, and a galvanising tune
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I think McSheffrey took the pressure off them today. Playing tricks like that could have the opposite affect.
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I think McSheffrey took the pressure off them today. Playing tricks like that could have the opposite affect.
No lets get a Netto banner, stickers and black and yellow scarves instead eh? FFS!
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They have to have a dig even after a win like that pfft
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If we can pick up a win or two in the next 4 then yes. Amazing to think just a few weeks ago but my concern is that we will go a number of games without winning before winning again and we can't afford to do that. We need to start stringing some results together. They are just far too sporadic at the moment to consider survival but that could change.
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I think McSheffrey took the pressure off them today. Playing tricks like that could have the opposite affect.
No lets get a Netto banner, stickers and black and yellow scarves instead eh? FFS!
If you want to pal, I don’t like you but we welcome anyone into Netto brigade. Want me to prepare your welcome pack?
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I think McSheffrey took the pressure off them today. Playing tricks like that could have the opposite affect.
No lets get a Netto banner, stickers and black and yellow scarves instead eh? FFS!
If you want to pal, I don’t like you but we welcome anyone into Netto brigade. Want me to prepare your welcome pack?
You don’t know me, but I couldn’t give a toss if you liked me or not
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Not getting carried away but if we can get a win on Tuesday then we could be on the way to surviving the drop.
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The great escape is definitely on. Lots of folk going to have to tuck into huge portions of humble pie.
We sounded fantastic today. Tommy Rowe and the Norwich lad were superb. GM getting all the big calls right. Teams above us struggling. It's all coming together nicely. :woohoo:
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I don't think Ipswich are brilliant by any stretch. We made that 0-6 defeat easy for them.
If we go with the same team on Tuesday, I'm confident we can get something.
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Always said it was ridiculous to suggest season was over with 22 games to go,
The tough 8 games from MK dons to sheff wed people said it was impossible to get 9 points from those, well we have 6 from 4 so far.
If we come out of these games with 10-12 points then we’re in with a great chance
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I don't think Ipswich are brilliant by any stretch. We made that 0-6 defeat easy for them.
If we go with the same team on Tuesday, I'm confident we can get something.
And looking who those around us have to play, if we win that gap could be 5 points very easily
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Energy levels are the limiting factor on Tuesday. We put a hell of a lot into that one today, and that effort included players that are still not yet match fit. The way GM wants to play relies on intensity. If we can recover and go again then we have every chance of competing. If we can’t match that performance then there has to be some understanding of that.
The extreme reactions that sway based upon whether we’re leading or behind are not helpful in this position. If we’re to have any chance of pulling off a hugely unlikely escape then we need everyone pulling in the same direction. There will be ups and downs and while the Netto lot claim to be buzzing today (and I don’t doubt that they are) we don’t need them tearing into the club the next time things don’t go our way.
Whilst I don’t expect us to stay up at all, it’s true that we could get 9 points in a week and that would turn everything on its head. We just need everyone behind Doncaster Rovers. Not breaking off into factions because it gets likes and attention.
Right we’re off out to get drunk in Newcastle where we should be heroes tonight.
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Always said it was ridiculous to suggest season was over with 22 games to go,
The tough 8 games from MK dons to sheff wed people said it was impossible to get 9 points from those, well we have 6 from 4 so far.
If we come out of these games with 10-12 points then we’re in with a great chance
Fair play, you did. Many people, including myself said we'd be lucky to get 1 win from the tough run of games and we have 2 so hold my hands up there. How quickly football can turn. For the worse or for the better. Move onto Ipswich with the hope that a miraculous run of form is now starting.
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Energy levels are the limiting factor on Tuesday. We put a hell of a lot into that one today, and that effort included players that are still not yet match fit. The way GM wants to play relies on intensity. If we can recover and go again then we have every chance of competing. If we can’t match that performance then there has to be some understanding of that.
The extreme reactions that sway based upon whether we’re leading or behind are not helpful in this position. If we’re to have any chance of pulling off a hugely unlikely escape then we need everyone pulling in the same direction. There will be ups and downs and while the Netto lot claim to be buzzing today (and I don’t doubt that they are) we don’t need them tearing into the club the next time things don’t go our way.
Whilst I don’t expect us to stay up at all, it’s true that we could get 9 points in a week and that would turn everything on its head. We just need everyone behind Doncaster Rovers. Not breaking off into factions because it gets likes and attention.
Right we’re off out to get drunk in Newcastle where we should be heroes tonight.
Interesting that you should mention energy levels there.
In the highlights Seaman loses the ball and looks totally knackered as he jogs back when Sunderland swarm forward.
He will do well to be fully recovered by Tuesday for another ninety minutes.
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Energy levels are the limiting factor on Tuesday. We put a hell of a lot into that one today, and that effort included players that are still not yet match fit. The way GM wants to play relies on intensity. If we can recover and go again then we have every chance of competing. If we can’t match that performance then there has to be some understanding of that.
The extreme reactions that sway based upon whether we’re leading or behind are not helpful in this position. If we’re to have any chance of pulling off a hugely unlikely escape then we need everyone pulling in the same direction. There will be ups and downs and while the Netto lot claim to be buzzing today (and I don’t doubt that they are) we don’t need them tearing into the club the next time things don’t go our way.
Whilst I don’t expect us to stay up at all, it’s true that we could get 9 points in a week and that would turn everything on its head. We just need everyone behind Doncaster Rovers. Not breaking off into factions because it gets likes and attention.
Right we’re off out to get drunk in Newcastle where we should be heroes tonight.
If I were you I’d be expecting free beer all night
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At least we are at home on Tuesday. It’s the doubly away games that kill teams. Like the Pompey away Saturday, Lincoln away Tuesday we have later in the month.
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We defo owe Ipswich after the away game.
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He got the tactics spot on today. If our players can perform there in front of that crowd, they can do it anywhere. He needs to now work out what’s needed for the Ipswich game. Our squad has to be used to it’s fullest over the coming months. It isn’t about individuals any more, it’s about the big picture of trying to stay up. It can’t be allowed that we perform like we did against Rotherham against Ipswich. They’ve beaten us heavily already.
Big decisions are needed again. Our ground needs to be a place for our players not the opposition, getting on their backs if things go wrong. Get behind the team no matter what you think of how things are run at the club. You support the team so go out and support it!. All the negative crap can be sorted after the season finishes.
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At least we are at home on Tuesday. It’s the doubly away games that kill teams. Like the Pompey away Saturday, Lincoln away Tuesday we have later in the month.
Lincoln is not that far, if it was Portsmouth away followed by Plymouth or Gillingham away then I would agree that may have an effect.
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We’re starting to get something approaching a squad now. The secret seven is now down to the secret six with Gardner back. Still not much on the rest of them though.
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Maybe Close might be nearing a return, not sure but any will help the cause.
We don’t have to win every game, so let's be ready for further defeats but if we can win the 'winnable' games from those around us, then today's sort of results are bonuses, particularly with the difficult run of games.
If we take anything from Ipswich then I'll take that as bonus points, which come the end of this month will tell us how close we can take it.
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Taylor
Close
John
Fejiri
Anderson
Bostock
All still several weeks or months away, at a guess.
Crazy to think what our matchday squad would look like if they were back.
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As great a result as today was, and it was great back to back wins is essential if we are to give ourselves any hope.
Fair play though, massive result for our club to go there a win after all we’ve been through this season. Well done players and management
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Unlikely as survival is, I think the players should come out to The Great Escape tune from now until the end of the season, a reminder that it’s still on, and a galvanising tune
I favour ‘tiptoe through the tulips’
myself , not so predictable!
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Unlikely as survival is, I think the players should come out to The Great Escape tune from now until the end of the season, a reminder that it’s still on, and a galvanising tune
. Or maybe Mission Impossible. Regards Ray
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Always said it was ridiculous to suggest season was over with 22 games to go,
The tough 8 games from MK dons to sheff wed people said it was impossible to get 9 points from those, well we have 6 from 4 so far.
If we come out of these games with 10-12 points then we’re in with a great chance
If we get 12 points from those 9 games, we still needs 20 points from the final 11 games to have any realistic chance.
The performance today was a massive improvement on Tuesday and that is good, but it doesn't change the depth of the hole that we are in.
It goes without saying that I'd be delighted to be wrong, but it's a 1 in 20 chance.
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That’s not right billy
It’s 8 games, so after the Wednesday game we will have 12 games left and if we get 6 points from the next 4 like I said then we will be on 28 points with 12 games to go.
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It’s great what a couple of wins do. From where we was after losing against Mansfield, we now do have a chance of stopping up. Also, some players coming back.
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At least we are at home on Tuesday. It’s the doubly away games that kill teams. Like the Pompey away Saturday, Lincoln away Tuesday we have later in the month.
Lincoln is not that far, if it was Portsmouth away followed by Plymouth or Gillingham away then I would agree that may have an effect.
It has an affect. Lincoln have two home games to our two away. How can that not be a massive advantage?
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Always said it was ridiculous to suggest season was over with 22 games to go,
The tough 8 games from MK dons to sheff wed people said it was impossible to get 9 points from those, well we have 6 from 4 so far.
If we come out of these games with 10-12 points then we’re in with a great chance
If we get 12 points from those 9 games, we still needs 20 points from the final 11 games to have any realistic chance.
The performance today was a massive improvement on Tuesday and that is good, but it doesn't change the depth of the hole that we are in.
It goes without saying that I'd be delighted to be wrong, but it's a 1 in 20 chance.
Yes, we have about a 5% chance of staying up. Not impossible, but improbable.
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And to top it off,Bolton just equalised in added time to make the gap 8pts now
cant believe that they scored in the 14th minute of 17 minutes injury time you don't realise how significant that Bolton goal will be (yes we might forgive Bolton for their antics if we stay up)
i presumed WIMBLEDON MORECAMBE HAD WON
I HAVE BEEN SAYING FOR YONKS AND YONKS 43 POINTS MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO STAY UP --- SEEN IT ALL BEFORE --
A DRAW IS OK ON TUESDAY ... As the "radio-active" shocking decay of Wimbledon continues
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out of interest have we all forgotten we have never beaten this lot - if Sundies hadn't lost at home to Mansfield in the F A Cup then we would have got another shot at finally beating them .
It makes you wonder if some of us will still be alive when we next play them in the league match (sobering thought).
Team doesn't look too bad -- it seems yours truely is the only one who believes we can stay up
the matches after this are starting to look a lot easier :scarf: :scarf: :scarf:
those two men in white coats at the front door are right pi$$ed off at the moment -- but therere again they are on overtime
meant to quote this pre-match quote not the other :suicide:
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Always said it was ridiculous to suggest season was over with 22 games to go,
The tough 8 games from MK dons to sheff wed people said it was impossible to get 9 points from those, well we have 6 from 4 so far.
If we come out of these games with 10-12 points then we’re in with a great chance
If we get 12 points from those 9 games, we still needs 20 points from the final 11 games to have any realistic chance.
The performance today was a massive improvement on Tuesday and that is good, but it doesn't change the depth of the hole that we are in.
It goes without saying that I'd be delighted to be wrong, but it's a 1 in 20 chance.
Here strikes the inveterate optimist again. Seriously I find all of your relentless positivity exhausting.
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One team always gets out of it. To me looking at the transfer window etc I'd say we have the best chance. But it does need a top of the table run of results at some point to turn it round.
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If there is a way through this, realistically we need to keep on the current form in this dreadful run we have, where we still have to play Ipswich, Portsmouth, Sheff Wed and Lincoln, then we hit a crucial run of games against Accrington, Gillingham, Cheltenham, Wimbledon and Fleetwood.
If we can squeeze maybe two hugely unexpected wins out of that first tough run, then win almost all in that second run, we might have a chance come the final stretch.
It’s all a very big ask though and again, what we have missed all season needs to be found - consistency in performance and ideally results, over several games.
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It’s got to be all about building for next season. That’s the smart way to go about it as it will also relieve the players of any feelings of pressure. If then that’s enough for the miracle, then great (very very very very unlikely).
The pressure was all on Sunderland today and not us and look what that’s achieved. A decent end to the season could really help us start next season well and McSheffrey has a chance to gel a section of his starting 11 next season, now. A lot of our challengers next season won’t have that comfort.
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Said it to the young uns a few times in the last few weeks. Win as many as we can and hope for the best elsewhere then see where we are at the end of the week.
In situations like this you've just got to dream, not much point otherwise, even if it does look like it's over.
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After 30 games last year Wigan we’re on 27 points, they then lost their next 3 games so after 33 games they were still on 27 points.
They ended the season on 48 points and stayed up.
Burton did a very similar thing.
We’ve got every chance to stay up, other than the Rotherham game our performances have gone up a few levels over the last 5/6 games
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Most people are assuming that we will need fifty points to stay up but just looking back over just the last ten years, there have been plenty of occasions when teams with fewer points have stayed up.
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Having had a quick look at fixtures till the end of the season, it is very much still possible to at least double our points to 44. That's with several defeats and draws thrown in.
It may be enough, or we may even exceed it. But even with an average to good run, we can at least make mid 40's.
Perhaps the key is getting off the bottom. That would do wonders for confidence.
Would we take a last 16 game record of:
P ?16 W 5 D 7 L3.
That would give us 44 pts
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That’s not right billy
It’s 8 games, so after the Wednesday game we will have 12 games left and if we get 6 points from the next 4 like I said then we will be on 28 points with 12 games to go.
My mistake Dickos.
Doesn't change the big picture by much though. Whichever way you look at it, we'd need to have had playoff form for the last 20 games of the season to have any serious chance of staying up.
Not impossible of course, but even after yesterday, I don't think anyone really thinks this is a play-off standard squad.
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Since the MK game when many people on here were starting to suggest the season was over
We’ve taken 1.5 points per game, keep that up and we will end up with 46 points.
Only a slight increase on that will keep us up, 46 might even keep us up
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Since the Rotherham game we've averaged 3 points a match. Keep that up and we'll end up on 70 points.
It's silly trying to extrapolate trends from very small samples.
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That’s not right billy
It’s 8 games, so after the Wednesday game we will have 12 games left and if we get 6 points from the next 4 like I said then we will be on 28 points with 12 games to go.
My mistake Dickos.
Doesn't change the big picture by much though. Whichever way you look at it, we'd need to have had playoff form for the last 20 games of the season to have any serious chance of staying up.
Not impossible of course, but even after yesterday, I don't think anyone really thinks this is a play-off standard squad.
We don’t need a play-off standard squad to go on a play-off standard run.
The team is unrecognisable from a few games ago. Rotherham aside, we have been competitive from MKD onwards. Suddenly, we are playing with desire, have competition for the starting 11 and I think we have found something very special in Rio.
We have every reason to believe we can do this.
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Tuesday’s fixtures, that have on interest to us
AFC Wimbledon v Rotherham
Cheltenham v Sunderland
Crewe v Plymouth
Doncaster v Ipswich
Fleetwood v MK Dons
Gillingham v Cambridge
Lincoln v Morecambe
Get a win against Ipswich and we could easily be within 5 points of safety and closer to other teams
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Tuesday’s fixtures, that have on interest to us
AFC Wimbledon v Rotherham
Cheltenham v Sunderland
Crewe v Plymouth
Doncaster v Ipswich
Fleetwood v MK Dons
Gillingham v Cambridge
Lincoln v Morecambe
Get a win against Ipswich and we could easily be within 5 points of safety and closer to other teams
That’s the way we need to look at it - how many points are we from safety after each game, rather than all the graphs and pie-charts and algorithms nonsense.
Potentially, we could reduce the points difference by more than half in just two games. That would be such a confidence booster, worth much more than just 3 points.
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Tuesday’s fixtures, that have on interest to us
AFC Wimbledon v Rotherham
Cheltenham v Sunderland
Crewe v Plymouth
Doncaster v Ipswich
Fleetwood v MK Dons
Gillingham v Cambridge
Lincoln v Morecambe
Get a win against Ipswich and we could easily be within 5 points of safety and closer to other teams
That’s the way we need to look at it - how many points are we from safety after each game, rather than all the graphs and pie-charts and algorithms nonsense.
Potentially, we could reduce the points difference by more than half in just two games. That would be such a confidence booster, worth much more than just 3 points.
And then Wimbledon have Sunderland next Saturday, two wins this week and we could very well be within 2 points of them
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Since the Rotherham game we've averaged 3 points a match. Keep that up and we'll end up on 70 points.
It's silly trying to extrapolate trends from very small samples.
I used the MK dons game because after the Cambridge game that’s the point when you and many others said we had no chance of staying up. And we had no chance of getting 9/10 points from the next 8 games.
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Shrewsbury also slipping back into the mix again after looking like they'd pulled away given their form after we beat them really picked up.
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If there is a way through this, realistically we need to keep on the current form in this dreadful run we have, where we still have to play Ipswich, Portsmouth, Sheff Wed and Lincoln, then we hit a crucial run of games against Accrington, Gillingham, Cheltenham, Wimbledon and Fleetwood.
If we can squeeze maybe two hugely unexpected wins out of that first tough run, then win almost all in that second run, we might have a chance come the final stretch.
It’s all a very big ask though and again, what we have missed all season needs to be found - consistency in performance and ideally results, over several games.
Give over…
If we won 7 of those 9 games as you suggest, we will be looking to finish about 14th/15th
We’d be on 43 points with still 7 games to go.
If we get 15 points from those 9 games rather than the 21 you state, then we’re in with a great chance of getting out of it
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I didn’t say we’d win 5 out of 5 in that second run. That’s something you’ve made up.
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Almost all you said,
If we manage 15 points from the next 9 games then we’re in with a great chance.
Leaves us needing 10-13 points from our last 7 games
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Taylor
Close
John
Fejiri
Anderson
Bostock
All still several weeks or months away, at a guess.
Crazy to think what our matchday squad would look like if they were back.
Hiwula to add to that list too. Any update on return dates? Don't think pre/post game interviewers have asked GMS for the last week or so. Thought Bostock & Anderson were meant to be back at the end of Jan.
After playing like we did yesterday, I think that list of injured players would all struggle to get back into the side.
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On the current PPG, 49 points is what is needed for safety.
We need 28pts from a possible 48 to reach the ultimate aim of 50. So a PPG of 1.75 (the same rate as 5th placed Oxford in their 30 games)
| Current Pos | PPG Pos | Team | Played | Pts | PPG | PPG Expected Pts |
| 17 | 16 | Cheltenham | 29 | 33 | 1.138 | 52 |
| 18 | 17 | Lincoln | 28 | 31 | 1.107 | 51 |
| 16 | 18 | Shrewsbury | 30 | 33 | 1.100 | 51 |
| 19 | 19 | Fleetwood | 29 | 31 | 1.069 | 49 |
| 20 | 20 | Wimbledon | 29 | 30 | 1.034 | 48 |
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| The dreaded line
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| 21 | 21 | Morecambe | 30 | 29 | 0.967 | 44 |
| 22 | 22 | Crewe | 29 | 22 | 0.759 | 35 |
| 23 | 23 | Gills | 30 | 22 | 0.733 | 34 |
| 24 | 24 | Rovers | 30 | 22 | 0.733 | 34 |
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Since the Rotherham game we've averaged 3 points a match. Keep that up and we'll end up on 70 points.
It's silly trying to extrapolate trends from very small samples.
I used the MK dons game because after the Cambridge game that’s the point when you and many others said we had no chance of staying up. And we had no chance of getting 9/10 points from the next 8 games.
Dickos, after the first two games of this year I was one of the posters who thought we had no chance of escaping the drop.
With the players we had available at that point I think it would have been fair to think that.
However, things have changed quite dramatically and with the signings we have made plus signs of some key players being ready to play again I have changed my mind.
I now feel that there is positivity within the squad again and the win at Sunderland has instilled a strong belief within the squad that we have a fighting chance of staying up now.
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Since the Rotherham game we've averaged 3 points a match. Keep that up and we'll end up on 70 points.
It's silly trying to extrapolate trends from very small samples.
I used the MK dons game because after the Cambridge game that’s the point when you and many others said we had no chance of staying up. And we had no chance of getting 9/10 points from the next 8 games.
Dickos, after the first two games of this year I was one of the posters who thought we had no chance of escaping the drop.
With the players we had available at that point I think it would have been fair to think that.
However, things have changed quite dramatically and with the signings we have made plus signs of some key players being ready to play again I have changed my mind.
I now feel that there is positivity within the squad again and the win at Sunderland has instilled a strong belief within the squad that we have a fighting chance of staying up now.
Totally agree with you hound. 3 weeks ago we had a squad which quite obviously would not be good enough to avoid the drop.
Now with 8 new faces and let’s face it none of us expected 8 did we. 5 at the very most I think was the expectation.
We now have a squad that could possibly do what most of us thought was impossible a few weeks ago.
Not saying we will pull it off as it is still a very long shot but it is now possible I believe.
Yesterday will have been a massive confidence booster and if we can follow it up on Tues with another 3 points then the players themselves will start to believe they can achieve what looked impossible.
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Since the Rotherham game we've averaged 3 points a match. Keep that up and we'll end up on 70 points.
It's silly trying to extrapolate trends from very small samples.
I used the MK dons game because after the Cambridge game that’s the point when you and many others said we had no chance of staying up. And we had no chance of getting 9/10 points from the next 8 games.
Dickos, after the first two games of this year I was one of the posters who thought we had no chance of escaping the drop.
With the players we had available at that point I think it would have been fair to think that.
However, things have changed quite dramatically and with the signings we have made plus signs of some key players being ready to play again I have changed my mind.
I now feel that there is positivity within the squad again and the win at Sunderland has instilled a strong belief within the squad that we have a fighting chance of staying up now.
Totally agree with you hound. 3 weeks ago we had a squad which quite obviously would not be good enough to avoid the drop.
Now with 8 new faces and let’s face it none of us expected 8 did we. 5 at the very most I think was the expectation.
We now have a squad that could possibly do what most of us thought was impossible a few weeks ago.
Not saying we will pull it off as it is still a very long shot but it is now possible I believe.
Yesterday will have been a massive confidence booster and if we can follow it up on Tues with another 3 points then the players themselves will start to believe they can achieve what looked impossible.
Hopefully Campsall, but it will take promotion form.
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Like the old saying goes, when the facts change you can change your mind about the facts.
I'll admit as above at the start of the window it looked to me the club had accepted its fate and was to go quietly into the night downwards.
The facts have changed, eight of them in fact and that has added a new emphasis to our season, the management are on a massive learning curve with very little time to recover from any mistakes they make, can they do it?
If the attitude and improvement and more importantly self belief in the squad can be maintained then the chance starts to develop into something achievable.
I think its fair to say its still in our hands, whilst ever that's the case then the thing can happen.
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We will stay up.
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Since the Rotherham game we've averaged 3 points a match. Keep that up and we'll end up on 70 points.
It's silly trying to extrapolate trends from very small samples.
I used the MK dons game because after the Cambridge game that’s the point when you and many others said we had no chance of staying up. And we had no chance of getting 9/10 points from the next 8 games.
Dickos, after the first two games of this year I was one of the posters who thought we had no chance of escaping the drop.
With the players we had available at that point I think it would have been fair to think that.
However, things have changed quite dramatically and with the signings we have made plus signs of some key players being ready to play again I have changed my mind.
I now feel that there is positivity within the squad again and the win at Sunderland has instilled a strong belief within the squad that we have a fighting chance of staying up now.
Totally agree with you hound. 3 weeks ago we had a squad which quite obviously would not be good enough to avoid the drop.
Now with 8 new faces and let’s face it none of us expected 8 did we. 5 at the very most I think was the expectation.
We now have a squad that could possibly do what most of us thought was impossible a few weeks ago.
Not saying we will pull it off as it is still a very long shot but it is now possible I believe.
Yesterday will have been a massive confidence booster and if we can follow it up on Tues with another 3 points then the players themselves will start to believe they can achieve what looked impossible.
But campsall, the argument put to you at the time was that we would be bringing players in that would give us a chance. But you said whatever we brought in we had no chance.
There was 22 games to go
It was crazy
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Since the Rotherham game we've averaged 3 points a match. Keep that up and we'll end up on 70 points.
It's silly trying to extrapolate trends from very small samples.
I used the MK dons game because after the Cambridge game that’s the point when you and many others said we had no chance of staying up. And we had no chance of getting 9/10 points from the next 8 games.
Dickos, after the first two games of this year I was one of the posters who thought we had no chance of escaping the drop.
With the players we had available at that point I think it would have been fair to think that.
However, things have changed quite dramatically and with the signings we have made plus signs of some key players being ready to play again I have changed my mind.
I now feel that there is positivity within the squad again and the win at Sunderland has instilled a strong belief within the squad that we have a fighting chance of staying up now.
Totally agree with you hound. 3 weeks ago we had a squad which quite obviously would not be good enough to avoid the drop.
Now with 8 new faces and let’s face it none of us expected 8 did we. 5 at the very most I think was the expectation.
We now have a squad that could possibly do what most of us thought was impossible a few weeks ago.
Not saying we will pull it off as it is still a very long shot but it is now possible I believe.
Yesterday will have been a massive confidence booster and if we can follow it up on Tues with another 3 points then the players themselves will start to believe they can achieve what looked impossible.
Hopefully Campsall, but it will take promotion form.
No it will take top 7/8 form imo.
8 wins and 2 draws or 7 wins and 5 draws from our last 16 games will give us 48 points. I think that will be enough.
One or more out of Wimbledon, Fleetwood, Shrewsbury or Cheltenham and possibly someone above them are going to have a serious downturn in form. Well hopefully.
I think Gillingham and Crewe will go down. Little or no new recruitment in January and one of Morecambe, Rovers or one or two of the others mentioned above will join them.
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Since the Rotherham game we've averaged 3 points a match. Keep that up and we'll end up on 70 points.
It's silly trying to extrapolate trends from very small samples.
I used the MK dons game because after the Cambridge game that’s the point when you and many others said we had no chance of staying up. And we had no chance of getting 9/10 points from the next 8 games.
I did not say we had no chance of getting 9 points from those games.
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You may not have, someone did, they said it was impossible..
What you did say though billy was we were far more likely to have played 31 games and be on 16 points than we would be to be on 25 points.
You also said after the Fleetwood game that you’d snap someone’s hand off for 5 points from the next 7 games, well we’ve beaten that with a game to spare.
You also mocked me for suggesting we could average 1.5 points per game in this run of fixtures against the top sides, well so far we’re 4 games into that run and we’re averaging 1.5 points per game
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Never mind PPG, the only target is 5th from bottom, currently 8 points, thats all we need to concentrate on
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Never mind PPG, the only target is 5th from bottom, currently 8 points, thats all we need to concentrate on
Exactly. This tit for tat nonsense and micro managing from some posters of what points we have got / might got or might get and who said what and who said we'd get X amount of points by X game, and who is right and who is wrong and who should eat humble pie and who should run around the lakeside in their kegs before the next home game as a forfeit. It's all very, very tiresome indeed. How does this not make your head hurt.
Jeez. Some of us said that we'd be lucky to get 1 win and some said we'd do well and get more. End of. Nobody gets a f**king trophy either way!. Holy Christ.
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None of us know what the result will be of any football game that has yet to be played. We have a chance to stay up. That much we know for a fact. We can very soon see ourselves 3rd from bottom and looking at that dotted line very closely.
I was whistling The Great Escape a while ago and that will continue until we have no mathematical chance left. I also stay until the end of the game, well after many other clever bleeders have already left because their football knowledge is far superior to mine.
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You may not have, someone did, they said it was impossible..
What you did say though billy was we were far more likely to have played 31 games and be on 16 points than we would be to be on 25 points.
You also said after the Fleetwood game that you’d snap someone’s hand off for 5 points from the next 7 games, well we’ve beaten that with a game to spare.
You also mocked me for suggesting we could average 1.5 points per game in this run of fixtures against the top sides, well so far we’re 4 games into that run and we’re averaging 1.5 points per game
I said without some very good signings that we'd be more likely to be on 16 points than25.
If you really want to argue, make sure you know what you are arguing about.
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None of us know what the result will be of any football game that has yet to be played. We have a chance to stay up. That much we know for a fact. We can very soon see ourselves 3rd from bottom and looking at that dotted line very closely.
I was whistling The Great Escape a while ago and that will continue until we have no mathematical chance left. I also stay until the end of the game, well after many other clever bleeders have already left because their football knowledge is far superior to mine.
I sometimes stay to the end of the game. Sometimes don't. Nothing to do with superior football knowledge if i don't. More to do with the fact that all fans are free to make their own decisions when they leave games and for various reasons. None of which i personally will judge them for. Including myself. We are all fans whether we don't attend at all for whatever reasons or attend 1 game a season and leave at half time. It doesn't matter.
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Fair enough. I just remember at BV (and nowadays too) loads of folk would leave when we were losing well before the end, as if they knew the result already. They didn't. The opposition would go 2-0 up, Fat Les (or whatever his name was) would laugh and say 'Bloody rubbish Cusack/Wignall/Bremner etc, I'm off'. He was saying 'look at my football expertise everyone, I am very very wise'. We'd sometimes grab a late equaliser, or even a winner.
I always think we might equalise or get a winner. Sometimes I'm right. We can stay up, that's a fact.
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You may not have, someone did, they said it was impossible..
What you did say though billy was we were far more likely to have played 31 games and be on 16 points than we would be to be on 25 points.
You also said after the Fleetwood game that you’d snap someone’s hand off for 5 points from the next 7 games, well we’ve beaten that with a game to spare.
You also mocked me for suggesting we could average 1.5 points per game in this run of fixtures against the top sides, well so far we’re 4 games into that run and we’re averaging 1.5 points per game
I said without some very good signings that we'd be more likely to be on 16 points than25.
If you really want to argue, make sure you know what you are arguing about.
Ah right
So you agree with the other two quotes
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Fair enough. I just remember at BV (and nowadays too) loads of folk would leave when we were losing well before the end, as if they knew the result already. They didn't. The opposition would go 2-0 up, Fat Les (or whatever his name was) would laugh and say 'Bloody rubbish Cusack/Wignall/Bremner etc, I'm off'. He was saying 'look at my football expertise everyone, I am very very wise'. We'd sometimes grab a late equaliser, or even a winner.
I always think we might equalise or get a winner. Sometimes I'm right. We can stay up, that's a fact.
Yep. Can't argue with that. Apologies for being a bit abrupt with my post Silkscarf.
I think it is the gamble we all take when leaving early. I went to a game at Boothferry Park in the 90's when ii played for them on a YTS and left about 10 minutes early with Hull 3 up. It ended 3-3 so anything can happen.
Games like Sunderland at home this season where it was clearly obvious to anyone at 3 down that we would be lucky to create a corner let alone a goal are no brainers, especially for fans who live a fair way away from Doncaster and it would be beneficial to them to leave early. For example, if i go to a night game and leave after the whistle, which i generally do, then it can be midnight when i get home so if we are utterly abject and well out of it then i might leave early sometimes.
Personally i find those who leave their seats on about 35 minutes to get a half time pie even at 0-0 a bit more puzzling to work out, but hey. Their choice i guess.
I have left early on a few occasions this season including at half time at Burton which was up there with one of the worst performances i've ever seen and simply could not see us creating a meaningful attack, let alone a goal. That was probably an extreme example but i do make extreme decisions now and then which a lot of people may find eccentric. The only goal i have missed from leaving early was Rowe's free kick against Mansfield in the FA Cup as after Horton had put us into an early lead, we were dominated from front to back and created nothing. At 3-1 down it was already game over IMO.
I don't like leaving early in defeats like the Plymouth game because we put in a shift and had a go at Plymouth and i'll stay and applaud that at the final whistle as it is deserved. Getting smashed 5-0 at home to Rotherham playing like schoolboys doesn't deserve support but just my opinion.
Some fans think support through thick and thin by way of staying and applauding at the end of every game regardless is the most loyal way of supporting which is their choice. I don't. Players have to earn support through effort and application and if they fall short then i can stay and clap despite a loss. If they give up after 10 minutes then i can give up after 75 or 80 minutes.
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Games are not won or lost based on statistics or form.
We have seen improvement barring the Rotherham steamrollering, without converting enough chances.
The new faces are bedding in now and we can see the difference with players raising their game. There were bags of positive signs yesterday that we were playing as a team, battling for each other and taking great enjoyment out of the performance. It's a drug and I bet they can't wait for Tuesday.
I used to get ahead of myself and look at the coming fixtures and plot towards a points total but after so many disappointments, realise it's a pointless (no pun intended) exercise.
Form doesn't matter. The opposition doesn't matter. It's all about us and the readiness and belief of the players going out there to win games.
Following our decimation from injuries, we now have a team, a balanced team and options from the bench. It's a team capable of winning games and that's all we wanted.
It's time to stick our chests out and give it everything from the stands and do our bit.
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It's not the leaving early thing I'm on about. It's just having that hope. These are the times we need it most. It makes very little sense but I always think 'if we win all our games and they lose all theirs...'. I can't help it. Generally I'm a pessimist but with Rovers it's the opposite.
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Each to their own,
Some have football as a thing they do once a week. Some live and die by the results,
Some can come and go and take in games as they wish. Some will leave work early or even throw a sickey to go
Some will sit there and nod approvingly when some great play takes place. Some will sing and scream their nuts off so when they get home their wife or bird does not know them.
Some will take another defeat as something that happens. Some will go home and die for a week.
Some will consider all of the above and wonder what the fu**k is he on about. Some will know EXACTLY what I'm on about.
Each to their own.
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Without wanting to piss on anyones bonfire here, our net expected goal difference per game over the last 6 games is about -0.8. To have any chance of staying up that needs to shift to average about +0.5 per game over the remainder of the season. That’s a swing of +1.3 goals per game (net).
It won’t happen no matter much we have improved. By the way, that -0.8 figure was about -1.6 when Gary took over and for the period just after. We’ve improved dramatically and we’re likely to keep improving, but it won’t be enough. 16 games is too many to for luck to carry us home and not enough for us to improve the amount we need to in time.
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The one good thing about being near the bottom is that the teams there generally lose, a team that strings three or four results together can make significant progress upwards. Whether Rovers are capable of that is still debateable, but after Saturday I guess we all have a little hope.
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I reckon we will win 9 more games.
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GM has bought us a new team, one that is capable in winning games. Win Tuesday and Saturday will make a big difference to the league table and our chances of survival We need to stand behind the team, management and the board in our quest to staying up.
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Without wanting to piss on anyones bonfire here, our net expected goal difference per game over the last 6 games is about -0.8. To have any chance of staying up that needs to shift to average about +0.5 per game over the remainder of the season. That’s a swing of +1.3 goals per game (net).
It won’t happen no matter much we have improved. By the way, that -0.8 figure was about -1.6 when Gary took over and for the period just after. We’ve improved dramatically and we’re likely to keep improving, but it won’t be enough. 16 games is too many to for luck to carry us home and not enough for us to improve the amount we need to in time.
Come on gaz, in those 6 games we’ve played the current top 4.
I imagine you can look at any side in the division and their xg stats against those sides won’t look great.
In the other two games Against Cambridge and Plymouth we have created many chances,
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Without wanting to piss on anyones bonfire here, our net expected goal difference per game over the last 6 games is about -0.8. To have any chance of staying up that needs to shift to average about +0.5 per game over the remainder of the season. That’s a swing of +1.3 goals per game (net).
It won’t happen no matter much we have improved. By the way, that -0.8 figure was about -1.6 when Gary took over and for the period just after. We’ve improved dramatically and we’re likely to keep improving, but it won’t be enough. 16 games is too many to for luck to carry us home and not enough for us to improve the amount we need to in time.
This season feels redolent of 82/83. We were generally poor throughout but, very occasionally, beat some of the highfliers in the division in a way that offered hope. We finished on just shy of 40 points and conceded nearly 100 goals I think.
The following season we bounced back big time with some great football, loads of goals, lots of wins.
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Never mind PPG, the only target is 5th from bottom, currently 8 points, thats all we need to concentrate on
Exactly
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Without wanting to piss on anyones bonfire here, our net expected goal difference per game over the last 6 games is about -0.8. To have any chance of staying up that needs to shift to average about +0.5 per game over the remainder of the season. That’s a swing of +1.3 goals per game (net).
It won’t happen no matter much we have improved. By the way, that -0.8 figure was about -1.6 when Gary took over and for the period just after. We’ve improved dramatically and we’re likely to keep improving, but it won’t be enough. 16 games is too many to for luck to carry us home and not enough for us to improve the amount we need to in time.
Come on gaz, in those 6 games we’ve played the current top 4.
I imagine you can look at any side in the division and their xg stats against those sides won’t look great.
In the other two games Against Cambridge and Plymouth we have created many chances,
Created many chances. But still lost by an aggregate score of 6-2
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Without wanting to piss on anyones bonfire here, our net expected goal difference per game over the last 6 games is about -0.8. To have any chance of staying up that needs to shift to average about +0.5 per game over the remainder of the season. That’s a swing of +1.3 goals per game (net).
It won’t happen no matter much we have improved. By the way, that -0.8 figure was about -1.6 when Gary took over and for the period just after. We’ve improved dramatically and we’re likely to keep improving, but it won’t be enough. 16 games is too many to for luck to carry us home and not enough for us to improve the amount we need to in time.
Come on gaz, in those 6 games we’ve played the current top 4.
I imagine you can look at any side in the division and their xg stats against those sides won’t look great.
In the other two games Against Cambridge and Plymouth we have created many chances,
Created many chances. But still lost by an aggregate score of 6-2
Yes but he’s talking specifically about the XG stat.
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Without wanting to piss on anyones bonfire here, our net expected goal difference per game over the last 6 games is about -0.8. To have any chance of staying up that needs to shift to average about +0.5 per game over the remainder of the season. That’s a swing of +1.3 goals per game (net).
It won’t happen no matter much we have improved. By the way, that -0.8 figure was about -1.6 when Gary took over and for the period just after. We’ve improved dramatically and we’re likely to keep improving, but it won’t be enough. 16 games is too many to for luck to carry us home and not enough for us to improve the amount we need to in time.
Come on gaz, in those 6 games we’ve played the current top 4.
I imagine you can look at any side in the division and their xg stats against those sides won’t look great.
In the other two games Against Cambridge and Plymouth we have created many chances,
We are creating far more than we were but conceding loads of chances also. That’s the issue really. We won’t tighten up enough defensively to have the necessary improvement.
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Past stats don’t prove the outcome of future games.
Stats don’t account for luck, missed official’s calls, opponents having an off day, bad weather etc etc etc.
All that matters is we score at least one more than our opponent, more often than not, and put a shift in as much as possible.
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Exactly. All this stats business is just meaningless. For example the Sunderland game. All the stats you could possibly look at suggested a home romp, yet we won. We could win the next 5 on the spin, even though the stats say we can't. That's the beauty of football.
I do think people get far too carried away with stats.
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Past stats don’t prove the outcome of future games.
Stats don’t account for luck, missed official’s calls, opponents having an off day, bad weather etc etc etc.
All that matters is we score at least one more than our opponent, more often than not, and out a shift in as much as possible.
It’s not about proving anything. It’s about applying a probability for an accurate to take place. That can be done pretty accurately. We’ve got about a 5% chance of staying up. It’s as simple as that. Maybe 1% inaccuracy either way, but that the maximum amount of tolerance we are talking.
Occurrences that have a fairly low chance of happening happen all the time, it won’t be a miracle if we stay up, just very unlikely.
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You can apply data and analytics to our situation or you could just say what we all see and arrive at the same conclusion - we don’t compete for long enough within games or in enough games for us to stay up.
The decent performances are hardly ever backed up in the next game or the game after that. A good win at MK Dons followed by 30 mins of competition against Plymouth then dropped off, followed by 90 minutes of total non-competition against Rotherham.
We need to be matching teams for at least 60 minutes plus each game to have any hope of getting something from each game. At present we are not.
It’s getting better but highly unlikely quick enough for us to save ourselves this season. It’s good to see the improvement though.
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Taylor
Close
John
Fejiri
Anderson
Bostock
All still several weeks or months away, at a guess.
Crazy to think what our matchday squad would look like if they were back.
Hiwula to add to that list too. Any update on return dates? Don't think pre/post game interviewers have asked GMS for the last week or so. Thought Bostock & Anderson were meant to be back at the end of Jan.
After playing like we did yesterday, I think that list of injured players would all struggle to get back into the side.
I’m not sure anyone least of all McSheffrey is banking on Hiwula being in the league of those above, who could make a material difference to this team if they were back fit.
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i watched the sky highlights for was it 2 and a half minutes - don't watch the efl prog haven't time
what i saw was a knackered No.19 (as donny ? pointed out) Seaman who ran as if his feet were "stuck to the floor" :suicide:
a very classy Norwich - spacially aware player with good ball control and as i said vision who produced a premiership quality ball - to a center forward who as someone else said "took the ball in his stride" and scored a premiership quality goal.
a Jamie Vardy style goal.
That gentle over the top ball is always a killer if a team has the right tool in the " toolkit"
and this tool thankfully is not hired
so long as Griffiths stays fit we should be OK
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Past stats don’t prove the outcome of future games.
Stats don’t account for luck, missed official’s calls, opponents having an off day, bad weather etc etc etc.
All that matters is we score at least one more than our opponent, more often than not, and out a shift in as much as possible.
It’s not about proving anything. It’s about applying a probability for an accurate to take place. That can be done pretty accurately. We’ve got about a 5% chance of staying up. It’s as simple as that. Maybe 1% inaccuracy either way, but that the maximum amount of tolerance we are talking.
Occurrences that have a fairly low chance of happening happen all the time, it won’t be a miracle if we stay up, just very unlikely.
I get this but only probability says that we have a 5% chance of staying up. When the actual real chance is unknown, because many variables can happen between now and the end of the season.
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8 players arriving in the window represents a huge change to our squad. Therefore a significant change in performances and results wouldn’t be miraculous, nor particularly improbable.
The last stats were mainly generated by our squad pre window, so that’s another huge spanner in the works.
Effort, cohesion and competitiveness are what will give us realistic hope of surviving the drop.
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Agree i think it's hard to use past stats to gauge us right now with so many new players and a change in mentality. If our legs don't go and we can keep the intensity up, not to mention get some luck with injuries, we've got a decent chance imo.
Reality is we'll probably lose a few too many because of the lack of match fitness in the squad which is currently why we struggle to compete for 90min regularly.
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8 players arriving in the window represents a huge change to our squad. Therefore a significant change in performances and results wouldn’t be miraculous, nor particularly improbable.
The last stats were mainly generated by our squad pre window, so that’s another huge spanner in the works.
Effort, cohesion and competitiveness are what will give us realistic hope of surviving the drop.
Agree. There are also things to consider such as dropping off of form from our opponents and also injuries and suspensions to key players from opposition teams we are facing.
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think i need to set someone two sets of homework to (using the available stats at the time) explain
(a) how Rovers results "decayed" (my personal buzz word of the moment) when we were a distance clear to lose the Championship the other year
and (b) how stats predicted the "decay" in results again last season
when the stats at the time said it was impossible
so let's introduce a new "buzz word" volatility
it just so happens volatility (the way i am using the word) works both ways and Rovers improvement can become "cancerous" and spread through the team
have you never heard of Newtons Laws of volatile football results
Newton’s first law: the law of relegation
Newton’s first law states that if a team is at rest or moving at a constant speed in a straight line towards relegation, it will remain at rest or keep moving in a straight line towards relegation at constant speed unless it is acted upon by a force (a.k.a. new permanent signings or loanees)
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Past stats don’t prove the outcome of future games.
Stats don’t account for luck, missed official’s calls, opponents having an off day, bad weather etc etc etc.
All that matters is we score at least one more than our opponent, more often than not, and out a shift in as much as possible.
It’s not about proving anything. It’s about applying a probability for an accurate to take place. That can be done pretty accurately. We’ve got about a 5% chance of staying up. It’s as simple as that. Maybe 1% inaccuracy either way, but that the maximum amount of tolerance we are talking.
Occurrences that have a fairly low chance of happening happen all the time, it won’t be a miracle if we stay up, just very unlikely.
I get this but only probability says that we have a 5% chance of staying up. When the actual real chance is unknown, because many variables can happen between now and the end of the season.
They are all factored in. You can’t argue with the maths unless you don’t understand it.
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Probably the latter Gaz. :lol:
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i watched the sky highlights for was it 2 and a half minutes - don't watch the efl prog haven't time
what i saw was a knackered No.19 (as donny ? pointed out) Seaman who ran as if his feet were "stuck to the floor" :suicide:
a very classy Norwich - spacially aware player with good ball control and as i said vision who produced a premiership quality ball - to a center forward who as someone else said "took the ball in his stride" and scored a premiership quality goal.
a Jamie Vardy style goal.
That gentle over the top ball is always a killer if a team has the right tool in the " toolkit"
and this tool thankfully is not hired
so long as Griffiths stays fit we should be OK
It was myself who mentioned Seaman being unable to run back CLH.
He looked as though he was done for on the day.
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If we only have a 5% chance then that’s the same percent as Wigan and Burton last year and the two sides just above us this year.
If any bookies would take the bet id be lumping on
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After 30 games last year, Burton were two points clear of the bottom 4 and Wigan were one point behind 5th bottom.
Those cases are not remotely comparable to our current position.
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We’re f**ked yet we’ve just beaten the third and fourth placed sides away from home, including the side with the best home record in the league. We’ve also been totally humiliated by the side at the top of the league. We’ve got something, clearly. It’s just not brought out sufficiently regular to make the difference we need.
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Agree. No point in beating Sunderland and then not winning until say the Wimbledon game in 4/5 games time. Draws aren't really much good either but obviously i'd take them over defeats.
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Let’s just take one game at a time eh.?
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After 30 games last year, Burton were two points clear of the bottom 4 and Wigan were one point behind 5th bottom.
Those cases are not remotely comparable to our current position.
Burton won 6 on the bounce that’s why,
Look where they were after 25/26 games.
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What a time to go to Pompey. They are the worst performing side regarding last 6 played.averaging just 0.33 ppg.
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After 30 games last year, Burton were two points clear of the bottom 4 and Wigan were one point behind 5th bottom.
Those cases are not remotely comparable to our current position.
BST isn't it around this time of the year that you start your prediction for the end of season points finish?
I reckon we'll end up on 38-40.
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What a time to go to Pompey. They are the worst performing side regarding last 6 played.averaging just 0.33 ppg.
Another flat track bully. Last five home games beat Morecambe and Wimbledon, drew with Wednesday, lost to MK Dons and Charlton.
As previously posted, we have a superb record away at their place.
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Their recent performance at home to Charlton was feeble and i think Sunderland was much the more difficult place to go and get a result so hoping for a positive result. A win tomorrow and a draw at Pompey would be amazing and set us up for the 2nd biggie of the season at home to the Wendies where we must be more competitive than we were against Rotherham and should have more confidence.
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After 30 games last year, Burton were two points clear of the bottom 4 and Wigan were one point behind 5th bottom.
Those cases are not remotely comparable to our current position.
Burton won 6 on the bounce that’s why,
Look where they were after 25/26 games.
After 25 matches they were 5 points off safety.
What you're saying is that because they had a run of form that most sides only get once every few years, there's no reason why we couldn't.
I say that MIGHT happen but it's highly unlikely.
As far as I can see, the last time we won 6 league games on the bounce was Autumn 2003.
Which kind of shows why Burton's escape last year is not a good example.
1) They were never as far behind safety as we are.
2) They had more time left when they hit form.
3) The form they hit has only been matched by us once in 2 decades.
I'd love us to pull a miracle out of the bag, but it is very unlikely.
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What a time to go to Pompey. They are the worst performing side regarding last 6 played.averaging just 0.33 ppg.
They are poor. Bottom of the League One form table. Interestingly Sunderland are below us, while MK Dons are level with Rotherham at the top.
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After 30 games last year, Burton were two points clear of the bottom 4 and Wigan were one point behind 5th bottom.
Those cases are not remotely comparable to our current position.
Burton won 6 on the bounce that’s why,
Look where they were after 25/26 games.
After 25 matches they were 5 points off safety.
What you're saying is that because they had a run of form that most sides only get once every few years, there's no reason why we couldn't.
I say that MIGHT happen but it's highly unlikely.
As far as I can see, the last time we won 6 league games on the bounce was Autumn 2003.
Which kind of shows why Burton's escape last year is not a good example.
1) They were never as far behind safety as we are.
2) They had more time left when they hit form.
3) The form they hit has only been matched by us once in 2 decades.
I'd love us to pull a miracle out of the bag, but it is very unlikely.
I think it’s irrelevent how many points they’re off teams. We could be two points off safety now or we could be 12, at the end of the day we need to get as close to 50 points as we can, regardless of any current points difference.
And we don’t need to have a run of 6 winning games, if we had a run of 2 on 3 or 4 occasions that would be giving us a great chance
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After 30 games last year, Burton were two points clear of the bottom 4 and Wigan were one point behind 5th bottom.
Those cases are not remotely comparable to our current position.
BST isn't it around this time of the year that you start your prediction for the end of season points finish?
I reckon we'll end up on 38-40.
It is. And I've just done it. And the results have knocked me sideways.
If this is right (and it generally has been to within a couple or three points [1]) this is what the predicted final points values are for each position.
17th 55
18th 49
19th 45
20th 43
++++++++++++++++++++
21st 40
22nd 39
23rd 36
24th 30
So if that is right this season, a club could potentially stay up with 41-43 points.
That throws a very different light on our position.
I'd been looking at the average PPG of all the sides near the bottom and thinking something near to 50 points would be needed to stay up. I honestly don't think we can get close to that. But at the moment, there are several clubs who are in poor form, with 6 of the bottom ten averaging 1 PPG or less for the last ten games. which means that when you extrapolate RECENT form, rather than season-long form, a number of sides are forecast to finish on less than their current season average PPG.
The predictor is based on the idea that, in general. if 5-6 teams are having poor form now, 5-6 teams (not necessarily the same ones) will have poor form from now on. So yes, some teams might pick up. But that would be balanced by other tailing off. As I say, there's nothing definitive about it, but it does in general seem to work.
[1] Just checked the predictions for the TOP 10 of the division from about the same time last season - the average error was 1.74 points. The predictor came within 1 point of the actual final tally for 5 of the top 1 positions and the worst amount it was out was 4 points for one position in the top 10.
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I’ll tell you what throws exactly the same light on our situation: we need to finish 20th or better to stay up.
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I have been saying for a while now that people have been saying we would need fifty points to stay up and that it might not be the case.
If that prediction by bst is anywhere near accurate then we still have a very good chance of avoiding the drop.
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I think the bottom of the table will look like this..
55pts Lincoln
54pts Cambridge
52pts Morecambe
52pts Fleetwood
——————————
48pts Wimbledon
38pts Doncaster
37pts Gills
36pts Crewe
I’m surprised how many points I have Morecambe finishing on as I’ve always been pretty certain they would get relegated.
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I fear you might be right with that Gaz.
Wish it were otherwise like.
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I think the bottom of the table will look like this..
55pts Lincoln
54pts Cambridge
52pts Morecambe
52pts Fleetwood
——————————
48pts Wimbledon
38pts Doncaster
37pts Gills
36pts Crewe
I’m surprised how many points I have Morecambe finishing on as I’ve always been pretty certain they would get relegated.
I’d wager a lot of money we end up with more points than 38,
Since our recruitment became prevalent were averaging 1.5 points per game and that’s against the top sides in the division.
I think we will comfortably be closer to 48 points than 38
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I agree with you Dickos. I’m still convinced we won’t be relegated and I’m the eternal pessimist when it comes to Rovers.
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If we are fifth from bottom at end of season, then it would have been a success given the season we've had to date, hoping the tide has turned.
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If rovers stay up this season, it will be celebrated like a promotion.
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Try this.
https://thefishy.co.uk/football-calculator.php
I had us finishing just outside the play offs :)
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Outside the playoffs?
McSheffrey out!
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If rovers stay up this season, it will be celebrated like a promotion.
No doubt whatsoever. Rightly so. We looked doomed a while ago and still do so getting out of this will be like winning the FA Cup! :scarf:
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Oxford away last game could be a big big day out
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I got us to 49 points, starting with a win tonight, however I do realise its the hope that kills you !!
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41 points, 22nd :crying:
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Mine’s got Wigan finishing top on 109 points, with the Millers 3rd, hope that happens but unfortunately I think the Millers will win the league !
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Oxford away last game could be a big big day out
seem to remember vaguely last time we played them at an end of season match their "weakened team" did really well cant remember the result
but hopefully they are secure for the play offs by then and don't care a to$$ about the result
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If we manage a win tonight, Morecambe do not win and Wimbledon lose (vs leaders Rotherham) then we will only be 5 points from safety.
Our odds of survival would surely look a lot, lot better still in early February if that were to become the case.
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……….and a lot of difficult games gone.
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Gap still 8 points or in effect 9 points given our goal difference. It looks like Wimbledon are being marooned with the bottom feeders.
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Gap still 8 points or in effect 9 points given our goal difference. It looks like Wimbledon are being marooned with the bottom feeders.
Nostradmus speaks !!!!! couldn't in a million years see that happening :headbang: :headbang: :headbang:
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If rovers stay up this season, it will be celebrated like a promotion.
We aren’t staying up pal.
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Gap still 8 points or in effect 9 points given our goal difference. It looks like Wimbledon are being marooned with the bottom feeders.
Yep the gap is still the same but we have one less game in which to make them up.
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Can't string back to back wins together, despite multiple opportunities to do so and this means we will not be able to go on the type of consistent runs that some teams just get into when they manage to escape the drop from an unfavourable position. Tonight i really hoped for a lot better but feel flat about both the performance and the result tbh.
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Did the fishy thing.
Despite only having us lose 2 or 3 games, still only managed 22nd and 43pts.
Too many draws.
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We have had too bad a start, for the team to get itself out of trouble ,any time before the last day of the season . If we get to the last day with a chance, it’s been a good turnaround of form.
A mixture of mental and physical tiredness after the Sunderland game, and Ipswich taking their opportunity cost us the game.
We are maintaining our way of doing things, it’s all or nothing, no inbetween, win or lose that’s the choice, we don’t draw games. In the situation we are in it’s worth more to us, it being that way. Winning two out of four is better than being unbeaten in four but drawing the lot.
We didn’t lose heavily as we have before. It could help with the goal difference at the end. Need to try and win the next one.
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...da da
da derrrr de da da...etc.
It's the impossible dream of course.
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The wimbledon game is massive. The proverbial 6 pointer.
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If only we'd kept that 3-0 lead at Morecambe
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If only we'd kept that 3-0 lead at Morecambe
Morcambe was the Season defining match for me.
A complete reverse “Mansfield moment. “
Who is to say last night was not our Mansfield moment though.
Fingers crossed.
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It was just looking at the table and realising that we’d be “top” of the bottom four.
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It was just looking at the table and realising that we’d be “top” of the bottom four.
We should have been two nil up at half time at Cambridge. Consider that also on top of the possible Morcambe win too.
Ifs and ands of course. Frustrating. It’s that kind of season.
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If only we'd kept that 3-0 lead at Morecambe
It really is still haunting me that. I also think if we had hung on to that, we probably wouldn't have gone and lost to Fleetwood too the following game. So frustrating.
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If only we'd kept that 3-0 lead at Morecambe
It really is still haunting me that. I also think if we had hung on to that, we probably wouldn't have gone and lost to Fleetwood too the following game. So frustrating.
But we have won games recently we were very much second best in. It all evens itself out over time.
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If only we'd kept that 3-0 lead at Morecambe
It really is still haunting me that. I also think if we had hung on to that, we probably wouldn't have gone and lost to Fleetwood too the following game. So frustrating.
But we have won games recently we were very much second best in. It all evens itself out over time.
I think that includes last night, stolen points if ever there were any! But who wouild grumble if we "stole" another 9 and Rovers stayed up? Not many!
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Would we praise or grumble if we beat Wednesday though? :lol:. Imagine the uproar from their supporters, if little old Donny turned them over!.
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Would we praise or grumble if we beat Wednesday though? :lol:. Imagine the uproar from their supporters, if little old Donny turned them over!.
We did so in their own back yard 12 years ago to the day. I'd take another overhead kick goal from a centre half on Saturday.
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Christ is that 12 years ago?
I promised myself at the time that I was going to stop going to matches as it was never going to get better.
That was the attitude that made me miss Brentford...
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12 yrs ago. Jesus. Seems like yesterday.
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Can we play in blue and white at home? Please?
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Would we praise or grumble if we beat Wednesday though? :lol:. Imagine the uproar from their supporters, if little old Donny turned them over!.
We did so in their own back yard 12 years ago to the day. I'd take another overhead kick goal from a centre half on Saturday.
Your figures are out, Pib. It was 9 years ago; 1-0 from a Macheda header.
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Would we praise or grumble if we beat Wednesday though? :lol:. Imagine the uproar from their supporters, if little old Donny turned them over!.
We did so in their own back yard 12 years ago to the day. I'd take another overhead kick goal from a centre half on Saturday.
Your figures are out, Pib. It was 9 years ago; 1-0 from a Macheda header.
Nope, my figures are correct. I’m talking about the 2-0 win in Feb 2010, which was during that terrific Championship season we had under SOD. Elliott Ward scored an overhead kick.
The Macheda one was September 2013.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/24184907
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Would we praise or grumble if we beat Wednesday though? :lol:. Imagine the uproar from their supporters, if little old Donny turned them over!.
We did so in their own back yard 12 years ago to the day. I'd take another overhead kick goal from a centre half on Saturday.
Your figures are out, Pib. It was 9 years ago; 1-0 from a Macheda header.
Nope, my figures are correct. I’m talking about the 2-0 win in Feb 2010, which was during that terrific Championship season we had under SOD. Elliott Ward scored an overhead kick.
The Macheda one was September 2013.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/24184907
The 2-0 away win was one of the finest performances I’ve even seen by a championship team at that level. They literally couldn’t get the ball.
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Would we praise or grumble if we beat Wednesday though? :lol:. Imagine the uproar from their supporters, if little old Donny turned them over!.
We did so in their own back yard 12 years ago to the day. I'd take another overhead kick goal from a centre half on Saturday.
Your figures are out, Pib. It was 9 years ago; 1-0 from a Macheda header.
Nope, my figures are correct. I’m talking about the 2-0 win in Feb 2010, which was during that terrific Championship season we had under SOD. Elliott Ward scored an overhead kick.
The Macheda one was September 2013.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/24184907
Just a misunderstanding of semantics then. I thought you would have mentioned the most recent one.
Maybe we should have mentioned both results in our posts. After all, the point we're both making is that it's not such a rarity for Rovers to turn the Owls over.
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Would we praise or grumble if we beat Wednesday though? :lol:. Imagine the uproar from their supporters, if little old Donny turned them over!.
We did so in their own back yard 12 years ago to the day. I'd take another overhead kick goal from a centre half on Saturday.
Your figures are out, Pib. It was 9 years ago; 1-0 from a Macheda header.
Nope, my figures are correct. I’m talking about the 2-0 win in Feb 2010, which was during that terrific Championship season we had under SOD. Elliott Ward scored an overhead kick.
The Macheda one was September 2013.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/24184907
Just a misunderstanding of semantics then. I thought you would have mentioned the most recent one.
Maybe we should have mentioned both results in our posts. After all, the point we're both making is that it's not such a rarity for Rovers to turn the Owls over.
But I was making the point that it was 12 years to the day. That was the significance.
Had the 1-0 one been on 16th Feb I’d have mentioned that as well.
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Would we praise or grumble if we beat Wednesday though? :lol:. Imagine the uproar from their supporters, if little old Donny turned them over!.
We did so in their own back yard 12 years ago to the day. I'd take another overhead kick goal from a centre half on Saturday.
Your figures are out, Pib. It was 9 years ago; 1-0 from a Macheda header.
Nope, my figures are correct. I’m talking about the 2-0 win in Feb 2010, which was during that terrific Championship season we had under SOD. Elliott Ward scored an overhead kick.
The Macheda one was September 2013.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/24184907
Just a misunderstanding of semantics then. I thought you would have mentioned the most recent one.
Maybe we should have mentioned both results in our posts. After all, the point we're both making is that it's not such a rarity for Rovers to turn the Owls over.
But I was making the point that it was 12 years to the day. That was the significance.
Had the 1-0 one been on 16th Feb I’d have mentioned that as well.
Yep. You've nailed it with the last sentence. My perception's getting crap.
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The Great Escape is on :)
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Would we praise or grumble if we beat Wednesday though? :lol:. Imagine the uproar from their supporters, if little old Donny turned them over!.
We did so in their own back yard 12 years ago to the day. I'd take another overhead kick goal from a centre half on Saturday.
Your figures are out, Pib. It was 9 years ago; 1-0 from a Macheda header.
Nope, my figures are correct. I’m talking about the 2-0 win in Feb 2010, which was during that terrific Championship season we had under SOD. Elliott Ward scored an overhead kick.
The Macheda one was September 2013.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/24184907
The 2-0 away win was one of the finest performances I’ve even seen by a championship team at that level. They literally couldn’t get the ball.
There was a moment in that match I will remember till my dying day. Bearing in mind we had never beaten them in our previous 131 years of existence.
Coppinger got the ball out on the right wing. He stopped. Two defenders covering him. He bent down and pulled his sock up. Then as he rose, he flicked the ball down the line and skipped away from the two of them.
Johann Cruyff once said that in the World Cup final in 1974, Holland didn't want to beat West Germany. They wanted to humiliate them. But in trying to humiliate them, they forgot to beat them.
That night, we humiliated AND beat Sheffield Weds. The finest performance I suspect I'll ever see from us.
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I agree 100%. The greatest ever rovers performance, certainly in my life time.
Am i right in thinking they have only beat us twice in the last 15 years or so? A win at hillsborough in 2008 (1-0 I think?) and then a 2-0 win at Hillsborough this season? Other than that, Rovers have won or drawn all other league fixtures in that time?
Off top of my head
1-0 win at keepmoat in 2009
The 0-2 win in 2010 at pig stye
1-0 win at KM 2011?? Think billy scored?
Sure there’s been another home win and then a draw at said pig stye
Edit
Just checked. From feb 2009 - mar 2014 they lost 5 straight games against us and didn’t score a goal in any of those. Their only solitary win since in the past 13 years came this season. The omens are good!
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Would we praise or grumble if we beat Wednesday though? :lol:. Imagine the uproar from their supporters, if little old Donny turned them over!.
We did so in their own back yard 12 years ago to the day. I'd take another overhead kick goal from a centre half on Saturday.
Your figures are out, Pib. It was 9 years ago; 1-0 from a Macheda header.
Nope, my figures are correct. I’m talking about the 2-0 win in Feb 2010, which was during that terrific Championship season we had under SOD. Elliott Ward scored an overhead kick.
The Macheda one was September 2013.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/24184907
The 2-0 away win was one of the finest performances I’ve even seen by a championship team at that level. They literally couldn’t get the ball.
There was a moment in that match I will remember till my dying day. Bearing in mind we had never beaten them in our previous 131 years of existence.
Coppinger got the ball out on the right wing. He stopped. Two defenders covering him. He bent down and pulled his sock up. Then as he rose, he flicked the ball down the line and skipped away from the two of them.
Johann Cruyff once said that in the World Cup final in 1974, Holland didn't want to beat West Germany. They wanted to humiliate them. But in trying to humiliate them, they forgot to beat them.
That night, we humiliated AND beat Sheffield Weds. The finest performance I suspect I'll ever see from us.
I remember us getting battered in the first 15 mins of that game. But like you say, for the remaining 75 mins, we toyed with them.
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Billy Sharp in their penalty area leading up to the second goal. It was like a Benny Hill chase. Every defender trying to get to him. None succeeding.
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That was comfortably the best Rovers performance I've ever seen. It was men vs boys, they couldn't get near us. SOD football at its very best. I was lucky enough to be in the Wednesday kop, right behind both the goals. The struggle to stay quiet when that bicycle kick clattered off the bar and went in was the hardest thing I've ever done.
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All together now...
Da da da da.....
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I feel like I died a thousand deaths watching that. But forget the performance. If we’d played well and lost (as we have done on occasions) nobody would care how we played and we’d all be feeling down tonight. That wasn’t pretty, but the result is the one we needed to keep fighting on. And we keep fighting on.
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That was an atrocious game of football on just about every possible level. What matters though was we won.
Now on to Saturday. This season we have only strung consecutive results together twice - a win and draw, and two draws. We haven’t managed back to back wins for 12 months. We need this on Saturday.
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Win dirty.
Comedy defending tonight.
Rode our luck.
But we will take that won’t we.
Off the plough lane next. The wombles won’t know what hit em.
And the Lincoln lot singing going down last week have a dull trip back from Bolton tonight. Just 7 points between us now.
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That was an atrocious game of football on just about every possible level. What matters though was we won.
Now on to Saturday. This season we have only strung consecutive results together twice - a win and draw, and two draws. We haven’t managed back to back wins for 12 months. We need this on Saturday.
We do. But, as with the last calendar week, 2 wins in 3 games is alright.
Tonight was a real ‘must win’ but in saying that I think many of us overlooked the threat they pose, and despite being awful to watch they really do. It wasn’t pretty but we handled it and won. Onto the next one.
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That feels like a moment. Playing that badly and grinding out a win.I hope I'm not deluding myself, but it felt like a glimpse of belief among the players. A determination to impose themselves.
Fingers crossed.
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Have I missed something. Was it that bad? Surely a team of giants and long throwers who also got a lot of corners are going to give us some dicey moments.
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You don’t/can’t play ‘pretty’ against Accy.
What we did tonight was defend like dervishes, scrappy tackles, uNable at times to clear our defensive areas into areas where the midfield or strikers could get hold of & keep the ball.
That wasn’t pretty no. And the remaining games won’t be pretty on the eye either.
Let’s just hope that scrappy, ugly football gets us ‘over the line’.
I’ll settle for that.
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We absolutely had to win that. And we did. I’m not going to comment too much on the quality of our performance because im past bothering about that now. Next 4 games will probably define our season. 3 away games and 1 at home against all the teams around us.
We cannot afford to lose Saturday, goes without saying really. I’d say a minimum of 7 points from the next 4 games to realistically have a chance of staying up. And I think that’s the absolute minimum.
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Was not expecting a pretty game against that lot.
No what we got was a gutsy performance and a bit of luck.
All the other results went exactly as we wanted. Now on to the Wombles and if we do the business we are back in business.
It will still be a huge ask but it will give us a serious chance. We simply have to win at Wimbledon.
Well done to the lads tonight we deserved that bit of luck that went our way.
All put a shift in and Mitchell in goal gets better game after game.
Just needs to improve and quicken his distribution.
I am a happy bunny tonight. It feels so good coming home knowing we have 3 points bagged.
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Win dirty.
Comedy defending tonight.
Rode our luck.
But we will take that won’t we.
Off the plough lane next. The wombles won’t know what hit em.
And the Lincoln lot singing going down last week have a dull trip back from Bolton tonight. Just 7 points between us now.
Lincoln themselves are in the relegation mix now.
It is four from eight IMO to go down.
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Was not expecting a pretty game against that lot.
No what we got was a gutsy performance and a bit of luck.
All the other results went exactly as we wanted. Now on to the Wombles and if we do the business we are back in business.
It will still be a huge ask but it will give us a serious chance. We simply have to win at Wimbledon.
Well done to the lads tonight we deserved that bit of luck that went our way.
All put a shift in and Mitchell in goal gets better game after game.
Just needs to improve and quicken his distribution.
I am a happy bunny tonight. It feels so good coming home knowing we have 3 points bagged.
There were many occasions tonight where Mitchell was looking to get the ball away quickly but most of the time no one was looking to make a run for him to try and hit.
It was noticeable that he was waving his arms at the players in front of him.
One time he even exchanged words with either Sinclair or McSheff about it.
The Accy number nine also blocked him a few times as he tried to get an early kick away from his hands.
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Really pleased with that second half. Showed what we can do with a bit of composure on the ball and defended decently to say we kept giving so many set pieces away.
Can't f**king wait for Saturday now
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Yeah we've played better than that this season and lost. What I do like about us now is how we're willing to defend. Throwing bodies in the way and heads at the ball. Seen a few people on twitter wanting us to drop the 5 at the back but Olowu, Williams and Younger at CB has been a big part of us picking up wins imo. Just need a bit more composure and quality when we have the ball in forward areas and we'll be alright.
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Totally agree you can’t expect a skilful game against Accy, we did what we normally fail to do and ground out a result, points are all that matters
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Far better players in a Rovers shirt have lost to Accrington Stanley.
They may say of our current team 'Who are they?' but there's potential in that squad to milk it.
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Have I missed something. Was it that bad? Surely a team of giants and long throwers who also got a lot of corners are going to give us some dicey moments.
Our ball retention in the first half was awful and kept putting us back under pressure. Passing was hurried to the point of being frantic. But we defended resolutely and were more controlled in the second half.
You could see what we we trying to do in the first half - hit them quickly on the break, but it simply didn't work because the passing wasn't up to snuff.
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After 30 games last year, Burton were two points clear of the bottom 4 and Wigan were one point behind 5th bottom.
Those cases are not remotely comparable to our current position.
BST isn't it around this time of the year that you start your prediction for the end of season points finish?
I reckon we'll end up on 38-40.
It is. And I've just done it. And the results have knocked me sideways.
If this is right (and it generally has been to within a couple or three points [1]) this is what the predicted final points values are for each position.
17th 55
18th 49
19th 45
20th 43
++++++++++++++++++++
21st 40
22nd 39
23rd 36
24th 30
So if that is right this season, a club could potentially stay up with 41-43 points.
That throws a very different light on our position.
I'd been looking at the average PPG of all the sides near the bottom and thinking something near to 50 points would be needed to stay up. I honestly don't think we can get close to that. But at the moment, there are several clubs who are in poor form, with 6 of the bottom ten averaging 1 PPG or less for the last ten games. which means that when you extrapolate RECENT form, rather than season-long form, a number of sides are forecast to finish on less than their current season average PPG.
The predictor is based on the idea that, in general. if 5-6 teams are having poor form now, 5-6 teams (not necessarily the same ones) will have poor form from now on. So yes, some teams might pick up. But that would be balanced by other tailing off. As I say, there's nothing definitive about it, but it does in general seem to work.
[1] Just checked the predictions for the TOP 10 of the division from about the same time last season - the average error was 1.74 points. The predictor came within 1 point of the actual final tally for 5 of the top 1 positions and the worst amount it was out was 4 points for one position in the top 10.
Update after tonight:
17th 55 53
18th 49 53
19th 45 46
20th 43 43
++++++++++++++++++++
21st 40 41
22nd 39 40
23rd 36 38
24th 30 27
So still quite stable for the bottom 6 and it's still looking like 43-ish points might do it. 45 ought to give a side a damn good chance of survival.
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We need to keep our rising momentum going, beat the Wombles on Saturday we will be only a point behind them Win one more game than them between now and the end of the season, we will stay up, as long as the other bottom 4 teams don't get more wins than us.
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Have I missed something. Was it that bad? Surely a team of giants and long throwers who also got a lot of corners are going to give us some dicey moments.
Our ball retention in the first half was awful and kept putting us back under pressure. Passing was hurried to the point of being frantic. But we defended resolutely and were more controlled in the second half.
You could see what we we trying to do in the first half - hit them quickly on the break, but it simply didn't work because the passing wasn't up to snuff.
We could only muster 41% possession. That needs to improve, like you say, our ball retention is atrocious.
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Perhaps they should start playing “the impossible dream” again pre match at the keepmoat
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Have I missed something. Was it that bad? Surely a team of giants and long throwers who also got a lot of corners are going to give us some dicey moments.
Our ball retention in the first half was awful and kept putting us back under pressure. Passing was hurried to the point of being frantic. But we defended resolutely and were more controlled in the second half.
You could see what we we trying to do in the first half - hit them quickly on the break, but it simply didn't work because the passing wasn't up to snuff.
We could only muster 41% possession. That needs to improve, like you say, our ball retention is atrocious.
We keep getting results though with the opposition having more possession.
For me I couldn’t care less about how much possession we have at the minute.
I’d settle for 41% possession every week as long as we keep picking up points
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Have I missed something. Was it that bad? Surely a team of giants and long throwers who also got a lot of corners are going to give us some dicey moments.
Our ball retention in the first half was awful and kept putting us back under pressure. Passing was hurried to the point of being frantic. But we defended resolutely and were more controlled in the second half.
You could see what we we trying to do in the first half - hit them quickly on the break, but it simply didn't work because the passing wasn't up to snuff.
We could only muster 41% possession. That needs to improve, like you say, our ball retention is atrocious.
We keep getting results though with the opposition having more possession.
For me I couldn’t care less about how much possession we have at the minute.
I’d settle for 41% possession every week as long as we keep picking up points
Really I’m equating more possession to having a bit more quality and more control in games. We will need that if we are to stay up.
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It’s not about winning pretty, it’s about getting effective results, it’s hard to watch, but needs must. I don’t think we’re going to all of a sudden start turning out good performances but the more wins we achieve may breath more confidence into the team.
For now it’s just about scrapping for every point available
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Have I missed something. Was it that bad? Surely a team of giants and long throwers who also got a lot of corners are going to give us some dicey moments.
Our ball retention in the first half was awful and kept putting us back under pressure. Passing was hurried to the point of being frantic. But we defended resolutely and were more controlled in the second half.
You could see what we we trying to do in the first half - hit them quickly on the break, but it simply didn't work because the passing wasn't up to snuff.
We could only muster 41% possession. That needs to improve, like you say, our ball retention is atrocious.
We keep getting results though with the opposition having more possession.
For me I couldn’t care less about how much possession we have at the minute.
I’d settle for 41% possession every week as long as we keep picking up points
Really I’m equating more possession to having a bit more quality and more control in games. We will need that if we are to stay up.
Under wellens we had much more possession than we do now but very little goal threat. Under mcsheffrey we are far more direct but we’re picking up more points
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Reminder that along with 4 points (5 with goal difference) AFC Wimbledon have 2 games in hand on us. A win on Saturday is important but we still need them to lose games at an increasing rate and obviously for us to win more games.
Fleetwood have same points as AFC Wimbledon but 4 games in hand on us.
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Remember when all we had to do was win our games in hand and we would have been top of the league ?
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Yep, that does seem a long time ago doesn’t it.
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Games in hand hardly matter when you’re near the bottom of the league
Wimbledon’s games in hand are Plymouth away and charlton at home, they’ll be lucky to get a point from those,
Fleetwood games in hand are sheff wed, Lincoln, Wigan and Sunderland.
Maybe 3 points max here
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Reminder that along with 4 points (5 with goal difference) AFC Wimbledon have 2 games in hand on us. A win on Saturday is important but we still need them to lose games at an increasing rate and obviously for us to win more games.
Fleetwood have same points as AFC Wimbledon but 4 games in hand on us.
But they are losing games at an alarming rate ,they have not won since early December
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"Games in hand" really is an odd one. I think their importance gets overstated to be honest.
They slip through your fingers like sand and, if you lose one, it puts increasing pressure on the other "games in hand" because they're some sort of mythical trump card.
The pressure is on them to get away...
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Remember SOD always said, points on the board every time. If we can keep momentum flowing we build massive pressure.
It's a slim chance but not quite as slim as it was.
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Remember SOD always said, points on the board every time. If we can keep momentum flowing we build massive pressure.
It's a slim chance but not quite as slim as it was.
The thing is, it’s not as if it’s a situation where we have points on the board with a team behind us with games in hand. They have points on the board AND games in hand. Each game in hand for them is probably worth about 0.8 points each.
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All the teams around us aren’t winning though, so games in hand aren’t much use to them.
Can’t see Wimbledon, Crewe, morecambe getting 45 points. So it’s between us, Gillingham, fleetwood, Shrewsbury, Lincoln.
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Cloughie would be turning in his grave after that performance by AS. Talk about having only one tactic, geritforrard in the air to the big lads dear oh dear
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Cloughie would be turning in his grave after that performance by AS. Talk about having only one tactic, geritforrard in the air to the big lads dear oh dear
They are quite direct but the follow up with second and third phases of play quite well. They are better than people give them credit for.
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Didn't see much of that last night GL
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Didn't see much of that last night GL
They had 60% possession. They must have retained the ball quite well.
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All the teams around us aren’t winning though, so games in hand aren’t much use to them.
Can’t see Wimbledon, Crewe, morecambe getting 45 points. So it’s between us, Gillingham, fleetwood, Shrewsbury, Lincoln.
The other teams might be saying the same as you are. Gillingham have improved since Harris took over.
I think one or more of Fleetwood, Shrewsbury and Lincoln are going to have a low points total in the run in.
Morecambe concede too many goals and they have just lost their manager, so I think they will go down with Crewe who now look doomed.
Wimbledon can’t buy a win at the moment ( oh no did i really say that ) scrub that comment sharpish. :facepalm:
So I think it is now 2 from Gillingham, Rovers, Wimbledon, Fleetwood, Shrewsbury and Lincoln
Win those games against Wimbledon, Gills, Crewe and Shrewsbury and pick up 2 further wins and I think we will pull this off.
Those games in hands do mean an awful lot though dickos because you can’t say they won’t win any.
They might. So it is imperative we pick up another 18/19 points.
No way do I want to go to Oxford and need to win to stay up. Or even draw for that matter.
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The games in hand might (optimistically) work in our favour - a few less games to fit in and more rest time. The lack of rest hurt us against Wednesday when our legs tired, hopefully it can help us in the run in.
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All the teams around us aren’t winning though, so games in hand aren’t much use to them.
Can’t see Wimbledon, Crewe, morecambe getting 45 points. So it’s between us, Gillingham, fleetwood, Shrewsbury, Lincoln.
The other teams might be saying the same as you are. Gillingham have improved since Harris took over.
I think one or more of Fleetwood, Shrewsbury and Lincoln are going to have a low points total in the run in.
Morecambe concede too many goals and they have just lost their manager, so I think they will go down with Crewe who now look doomed.
Wimbledon can’t buy a win at the moment ( oh no did i really say that ) scrub that comment sharpish. :facepalm:
So I think it is now 2 from Gillingham, Rovers, Wimbledon, Fleetwood, Shrewsbury and Lincoln
Win those games against Wimbledon, Gills, Crewe and Shrewsbury and pick up 2 further wins and I think we will pull this off.
Those games in hands do mean an awful lot though dickos because you can’t say they won’t win any.
They might. So it is imperative we pick up another 18/19 points.
No way do I want to go to Oxford and need to win to stay up. Or even draw for that matter.
My dad is a wily old thing, but he has a knack of calling things. He already predicts needing a win to stay up when we go to Oxford, and they need a win to either secure playoffs or automatics.
Our problem is the kassam only has three sides. There won’t be room for us all to go.
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All the teams around us aren’t winning though, so games in hand aren’t much use to them.
Can’t see Wimbledon, Crewe, morecambe getting 45 points. So it’s between us, Gillingham, fleetwood, Shrewsbury, Lincoln.
The other teams might be saying the same as you are. Gillingham have improved since Harris took over.
I think one or more of Fleetwood, Shrewsbury and Lincoln are going to have a low points total in the run in.
Morecambe concede too many goals and they have just lost their manager, so I think they will go down with Crewe who now look doomed.
Wimbledon can’t buy a win at the moment ( oh no did i really say that ) scrub that comment sharpish. :facepalm:
So I think it is now 2 from Gillingham, Rovers, Wimbledon, Fleetwood, Shrewsbury and Lincoln
Win those games against Wimbledon, Gills, Crewe and Shrewsbury and pick up 2 further wins and I think we will pull this off.
Those games in hands do mean an awful lot though dickos because you can’t say they won’t win any.
They might. So it is imperative we pick up another 18/19 points.
No way do I want to go to Oxford and need to win to stay up. Or even draw for that matter.
My dad is a wily old thing, but he has a knack of calling things. He already predicts needing a win to stay up when we go to Oxford, and they need a win to either secure playoffs or automatics.
Our problem is the kassam only has three sides. There won’t be room for us all to go.
My nerves won't cope with that! And Brentford aside my recent memory of Rovers in last day 'must-win' games is painful (Leicester, Hartlepool, Cheltenham).
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Wimbledon haven't won for ages, but they have remained competitive in nearly all their matches. They got rolled over by Bolton ast Saturday, but apart from that they have only lost by more than 1 goal twice in the past 4 months. It's not a massive stretch of the imagination to see them picking up enough points to hit 45.
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It’s interesting to micro-analyse all the other teams and the permutations, but it’s largely pointless. We can’t do anything about their games in hand or their form (or perceived lack of). We still have a huge task on, no denying that. But if we win games then we give ourselves a better chance of staying up - it’s that simple. And we’ve got better at winning games recently.
If we don’t beat Wimbledon at the weekend it’s not over, but we do need to find some consistency. Last night was a big step in breaking the bad run at home - which I think had become a bit of a burden. We can move on from that and the task remains a straightforward one - win the next game. As we go, we’ll see where that gets us to.
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Cloughie would be turning in his grave after that performance by AS. Talk about having only one tactic, geritforrard in the air to the big lads dear oh dear
They are quite direct but the follow up with second and third phases of play quite well. They are better than people give them credit for.
To me, their tactics seem to revolve around keeping the ball moving/alive as much as possible, often in the air. To be fair to them it is often effective and does cause chaos as they are always trying to recycle the ball into dangerous areas and make it as awkward as possible for defenders to deal with. They seem very energetic and fit and are good at getting onto the 2nd balls as you say.
I think compared to earlier in the season when we played them at their place, they missed Dion Charles. He had the pace to occupy/harry defenders and latch on to a lot of the direct play they had. They got the ball into Bishop quite a lot last night but didn't have the second man buzzing round him to pick up the pieces.
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Didn't see much of that last night GL
They had 60% possession. They must have retained the ball quite well.
Possesion doesn't mean much if you are just knocking it about side to side and particularly at the back, which they seemed to do last night with the big centre half marauding forward in the 2nd half. It's more to do with how you make possesion pay that matters
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All the teams around us aren’t winning though, so games in hand aren’t much use to them.
Can’t see Wimbledon, Crewe, morecambe getting 45 points. So it’s between us, Gillingham, fleetwood, Shrewsbury, Lincoln.
The other teams might be saying the same as you are. Gillingham have improved since Harris took over.
I think one or more of Fleetwood, Shrewsbury and Lincoln are going to have a low points total in the run in.
Morecambe concede too many goals and they have just lost their manager, so I think they will go down with Crewe who now look doomed.
Wimbledon can’t buy a win at the moment ( oh no did i really say that ) scrub that comment sharpish. :facepalm:
So I think it is now 2 from Gillingham, Rovers, Wimbledon, Fleetwood, Shrewsbury and Lincoln
Win those games against Wimbledon, Gills, Crewe and Shrewsbury and pick up 2 further wins and I think we will pull this off.
Those games in hands do mean an awful lot though dickos because you can’t say they won’t win any.
They might. So it is imperative we pick up another 18/19 points.
No way do I want to go to Oxford and need to win to stay up. Or even draw for that matter.
Other than cheltenham we are the highest placed side in the form table out of the bottom half of the league table.
So I don’t think the other fans will be saying we’re not in any kind of form.
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The games in hand thing goes like this.
If 45 points is the target, we have 11 games to get 17 points.
Wimbledon have 13 games to get 13 points.
Nothing else really matters. Not who the supposed matches in hand are against, nor when they are.
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Although winning the game against Wimbledon does have double significance.
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The games in hand thing goes like this.
If 45 points is the target, we have 11 games to get 17 points.
Wimbledon have 13 games to get 13 points.
Nothing else really matters. Not who the supposed matches in hand are against, nor when they are.
So on paper Wimbledon have the easier task. End of. So we really do need to win this game.
Form or no form. It’s a simple maths equation.
Still think 45 points might be a tad optimistic.
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Yep need to win Saturday. Simple. Defeat would be catastrophic I think
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Yep need to win Saturday. Simple. Defeat would be catastrophic I think
Agreed, a draw isn’t much better, bet Wimbledon would happily take that now
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To be honest
Most weeks we’ve had similar comments “if we don’t win it’s all over” some of these games we’ve lost yet we’re still in it
If we lose Saturday it’s a bad result but it’s still a long way from being over
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You could be right Dickos but we’ve played more games than the other teams we’ve got the worst GD so we need to win with 11 games left
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We’d need 17 points from 10 games if we lost
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We’d need 17 points from 10 games if we lost
Not quite as simple as that. If we lose to the side 5th bottom, that increases the probability that that side will end up on more than 45 points.
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Game at a time, I see no reason why we can’t beat Wimbledon, if the current doggedness continues. We can’t afford to drop our performance at all. We need to go for the win, just make sure we give no cheap goals away.
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We’d need 17 points from 10 games if we lost
Not quite as simple as that. If we lose to the side 5th bottom, that increases the probability that that side will end up on more than 45 points.
I think it’s naive to think they won’t win any of their last 13 games, the teams just above them will be dragged right back in if Wimbledon win.
As I said it will make it tougher if we lose but it won’t make it impossible
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We’d need 17 points from 10 games if we lost
Not quite as simple as that. If we lose to the side 5th bottom, that increases the probability that that side will end up on more than 45 points.
I think it’s naive to think they won’t win any of their last 13 games, the teams just above them will be dragged right back in if Wimbledon win.
As I said it will make it tougher if we lose but it won’t make it impossible
As I say, its about probabilities. Wimbledon need 13 points from 13 games to hit 45 points. There is a certain probability of them exceeding that. If they beat us on Saturday, they then need only 10 points from 12 games to hit 45. The probability f them exceeding that wold be significantly higher than it is today.
It's complicated to quantify, but in simple terms, if we beat them on Saturday then the odds tilt towards us, whereas if we lose then our task is really VERY difficult.
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We’d need 17 points from 10 games if we lost
Not quite as simple as that. If we lose to the side 5th bottom, that increases the probability that that side will end up on more than 45 points.
I think it’s naive to think they won’t win any of their last 13 games, the teams just above them will be dragged right back in if Wimbledon win.
As I said it will make it tougher if we lose but it won’t make it impossible
As I say, its about probabilities. Wimbledon need 13 points from 13 games to hit 45 points. There is a certain probability of them exceeding that. If they beat us on Saturday, they then need only 10 points from 12 games to hit 45. The probability f them exceeding that wold be significantly higher than it is today.
It's complicated to quantify, but in simple terms, if we beat them on Saturday then the odds tilt towards us, whereas if we lose then our task is really VERY difficult.
They’ve got 7 points from their last 13 games and we’ve got 12 points from our last 11 games.
So going purely on current form we’re looking likely to finish above them
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Yes. But if they beat us on Saturday, they've got 10 from 14 and we've got 12 from 12. Then if you extrapolate THAT form through its very different.
Saturday is a massive tipping point.
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Statistics don't determine the outcome of games.
It's about the basic human sporting values of desire, endeavour, bravery and team work.
We've seen the signs recently that the team ethic is coming together even when our collective quality hasn't been as good as our opponents.
That means we can be pretty confident the team is going into this game and every remaining game with the right attitude and desire to win.
Whatever happens, there will not be a 'R' against our name in the league table, so let's not have anyone saying we're relegated when we're clearly not. It's a hard enough task even without fans waving the white flag prematurely.
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Yes. But if they beat us on Saturday, they've got 10 from 14 and we've got 12 from 12. Then if you extrapolate THAT form through its very different.
Saturday is a massive tipping point.
We need to win 5/6 games out of the last 11 doesn’t matter which ones, so makes it harder if we do t win one of them on sat but not impossible
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It’s not the end of the road if we don’t beat them, but it would make it much more difficult.
I think at least a draw would be good, just so they don’t gain confidence and start pulling away from us.
I do think we will beat them if we are as determined as we have been recently. We are beginning to look very organised but that has to continue.
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Yes. But if they beat us on Saturday, they've got 10 from 14 and we've got 12 from 12. Then if you extrapolate THAT form through its very different.
Saturday is a massive tipping point.
You are absolutely right BST. Psychologically the players will get another lift if we win this. On this basis alone I think it’s huge.
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Yes. But if they beat us on Saturday, they've got 10 from 14 and we've got 12 from 12. Then if you extrapolate THAT form through its very different.
Saturday is a massive tipping point.
We need to win 5/6 games out of the last 11 doesn’t matter which ones, so makes it harder if we do t win one of them on sat but not impossible
No, of course it's not impossible if we lose tomorrow, but it would be very much more difficult.
The more I think of this, the more it feels like one of the biggest matches in a very long time - certainly since Brentford, there's only been the final match of 13/14 and the playoff semi at Charlton that are clearly more pivotal.
Win and I think we probably are favourites to stay up. Lose and it is very, very difficult to survive.
Look at the bookies (and yes, I know but they get it right more often than not). Currently they have us 1/14-16 on to go down and Wimbledon 3-4/1 against.
Lose on Saturday and those numbers will go to something like 1/25 and 8/1. Win and both will be close to Evens.
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After 30 games last year, Burton were two points clear of the bottom 4 and Wigan were one point behind 5th bottom.
Those cases are not remotely comparable to our current position.
BST isn't it around this time of the year that you start your prediction for the end of season points finish?
I reckon we'll end up on 38-40.
It is. And I've just done it. And the results have knocked me sideways.
If this is right (and it generally has been to within a couple or three points [1]) this is what the predicted final points values are for each position.
17th 55
18th 49
19th 45
20th 43
++++++++++++++++++++
21st 40
22nd 39
23rd 36
24th 30
So if that is right this season, a club could potentially stay up with 41-43 points.
That throws a very different light on our position.
I'd been looking at the average PPG of all the sides near the bottom and thinking something near to 50 points would be needed to stay up. I honestly don't think we can get close to that. But at the moment, there are several clubs who are in poor form, with 6 of the bottom ten averaging 1 PPG or less for the last ten games. which means that when you extrapolate RECENT form, rather than season-long form, a number of sides are forecast to finish on less than their current season average PPG.
The predictor is based on the idea that, in general. if 5-6 teams are having poor form now, 5-6 teams (not necessarily the same ones) will have poor form from now on. So yes, some teams might pick up. But that would be balanced by other tailing off. As I say, there's nothing definitive about it, but it does in general seem to work.
[1] Just checked the predictions for the TOP 10 of the division from about the same time last season - the average error was 1.74 points. The predictor came within 1 point of the actual final tally for 5 of the top 1 positions and the worst amount it was out was 4 points for one position in the top 10.
Update after tonight:
17th 55 53
18th 49 53
19th 45 46
20th 43 43
++++++++++++++++++++
21st 40 41
22nd 39 40
23rd 36 38
24th 30 27
So still quite stable for the bottom 6 and it's still looking like 43-ish points might do it. 45 ought to give a side a damn good chance of survival.
Update after today.
Update after tonight:
17th 55 53
18th 49 53
19th 45 46
20th 43 43
++++++++++++++++++++
21st 40 41
22nd 39 40
23rd 36After 30 games last year, Burton were two points clear of the bottom 4 and Wigan were one point behind 5th bottom.
Those cases are not remotely comparable to our current position.
BST isn't it around this time of the year that you start your prediction for the end of season points finish?
I reckon we'll end up on 38-40.
It is. And I've just done it. And the results have knocked me sideways.
If this is right (and it generally has been to within a couple or three points [1]) this is what the predicted final points values are for each position.
17th 55
18th 49
19th 45
20th 43
++++++++++++++++++++
21st 40
22nd 39
23rd 36
24th 30
So if that is right this season, a club could potentially stay up with 41-43 points.
That throws a very different light on our position.
I'd been looking at the average PPG of all the sides near the bottom and thinking something near to 50 points would be needed to stay up. I honestly don't think we can get close to that. But at the moment, there are several clubs who are in poor form, with 6 of the bottom ten averaging 1 PPG or less for the last ten games. which means that when you extrapolate RECENT form, rather than season-long form, a number of sides are forecast to finish on less than their current season average PPG.
The predictor is based on the idea that, in general. if 5-6 teams are having poor form now, 5-6 teams (not necessarily the same ones) will have poor form from now on. So yes, some teams might pick up. But that would be balanced by other tailing off. As I say, there's nothing definitive about it, but it does in general seem to work.
[1] Just checked the predictions for the TOP 10 of the division from about the same time last season - the average error was 1.74 points. The predictor came within 1 point of the actual final tally for 5 of the top 1 positions and the worst amount it was out was 4 points for one position in the top 10.
Update after tonight:
17th 55 53
18th 49 53
19th 45 46
20th 43 43
++++++++++++++++++++
21st 40 41
22nd 39 40
23rd 36 38
24th 30 27
So still quite stable for the bottom 6 and it's still looking like 43-ish points might do it. 45 ought to give a side a damn good chance of survival.
Update after today:
17th 55, 53 50
18th 49, 53 50
19th 45, 46 48
20th 43, 43 43
++++++++++++++++++++
21st 40, 41 42
22nd 39,40 41
23rd 36, 38 40
24th 30, 27 33
As you were more or less. Still looking like 45 points should ensure safety and 41-43 points might.
A draw today rather than a win does make it a bit harder for us though, because we now need 16 points from 10 games, rather than the 17 from 11 it was before today. But not as hard as it was looking after an hour. We are still alive.
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Not sure what formula your using BST. 43 points would be one of lowest ever for 20th place.
As long as we finish above 4 teams that all that matters.
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It is looking likely though Camps.
I said a few weeks ago that 45 might be enough to stay up, rather that the usual fifty.
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Not sure what formula your using BST. 43 points would be one of lowest ever for 20th place.
As long as we finish above 4 teams that all that matters.
Posted this elsewhere - using a projected average using points-per-game for the COVID curtailed 2019-20 season to calculate predicted points at the end of that season, since 3 points per win was introduced in 1981-82, the average points for the safe 20th position is 49.1 and for the relegated 21st position is 47.2
The lowest number of points for 20th position is 45 (Oxford in 1999-00) and the lowest for 21st position is 43 (Wycombe 2011-12).
So 45 is the lowest that has escaped, although theoretically 44 (or 43 with goal difference better than -23) for anyone not in the bottom 4 could have survived in 2011-12 - although the 20th placed team that year, Leyton Orient, did actually win 50 points.
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It is looking likely though Camps.
I said a few weeks ago that 45 might be enough to stay up, rather that the usual fifty.
No I accept we won’t need 50
Think 45 is possible now. But hey what do I know. :zzz:
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My opinion - I think we simply have to have better form than Wimbledon, Morecambe, Gillingham and Crewe for the rest of the season in order to stay up. If they all continue their poor form then a low number will be required, but if just one of those 4 hits form then we are in trouble. It would then need one of Lincoln, Fleetwood or Shrewsbury to have truly disastrous form between now and the end of the season.
The team I think most likely of our 4 nearest rivals to have good form is Gillingham under their new management.
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My opinion - I think we simply have to have better form than Wimbledon, Morecambe, Gillingham and Crewe for the rest of the season in order to stay up. If they all continue their poor form then a low number will be required, but if just one of those 4 hits form then we are in trouble. It would then need one of Lincoln, Fleetwood or Shrewsbury to have truly disastrous form between now and the end of the season.
The team I think most likely of our 4 nearest rivals to have good form is Gillingham under their new management.
I think that Lincoln and Fleetwood are very much in the mix now.
Lincoln in particular are in terrible form.
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Great addition to the stats Dutch.
For what it's worth, I have trouble imaging what my simple models says -- that 43 points will be what the 5th bottom side will get. But then again, pretty much every year I don't believe what this model says, and over and over again it turns out to be right to within a point or two.
I do think the bottom 5 or so are historically very poor this year. A quick look suggests that only twice this century have we got this late in the season in this division before this year, with the 5th bottom side averaging less than a point per game. And there's crrently no real sign of any of the bottom 5 hitting very good form. Over the past ten games, we are doing best with 1.3 ppg, Gillingham have 1.2, Morecambe 0.8, Crewe 0.7 and Wimbledon 0.6. So the form varies between mid-table to rank bad bottom of the table.
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I had us getting around 42 points.
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Coming back from 2 down will feel like a win to the players. At least we are showing some fight and like others have said we just need to get more points that those around.
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Next 4 games will be defining imo.
I honestly think we need 3 wins from them or we will need to do too much from the last 6
But as I keep saying, what do I know. :that:
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Another indication of how historically bad the bottom end of this division is. You have to go up to 8th bottom before you find a side whose season average PPG would just get them to 50 points over 46 games.
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Next 4 games will be defining imo.
I honestly think we need 3 wins from them or we will need to do too much from the last 6
But as I keep saying, what do I know. :that:
It doesn't matter which games the points come from. It would be nice to get 2 or more wins on the bounce from the next ones, but we don't have to do that. Luckily all the other teams around us are rubbish as well.
The bald fact is we are effectively 5 points from safety (given the irretrievably poor GD) with 10 games left. We can do it.
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Not sure what formula your using BST. 43 points would be one of lowest ever for 20th place.
As long as we finish above 4 teams that all that matters.
I'm projecting through the form over the last 10 games to the end of the season. And I agree, it seems like a very low set of final points. But it has generally been accurate to within a point or two in previous seasons. No guarantee it will work this year, but it's been giving broadly consistent predictions now for the past 3 weeks.
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Given our league position draws aren't going to get us out of the relegation zone, wins will only enable the great escape.
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Next 4 games will be defining imo.
I honestly think we need 3 wins from them or we will need to do too much from the last 6
But as I keep saying, what do I know. :that:
It doesn't matter which games the points come from. It would be nice to get 2 or more wins on the bounce from the next ones, but we don't have to do that. Luckily all the other teams around us are rubbish as well.
The bald fact is we are effectively 5 points from safety (given the irretrievably poor GD) with 10 games left. We can do it.
You say all the other teams around us are rubbish. Did you see the results yesterday.
Crewe won away at Burton, Gillingham won away at Lincoln, Morecambe drew at home to Ipswich, Fleetwood drew away at Pompey. So while I agree there are some very average well below average teams in this league they are all capable of surprise results. None of those yesterday will have been predicted.
Gillingham same as us have improved recently. Harris has got them picking up points now which is a big concern for us.
We have to beat them at home in our next home game. Think that will be a certainty. Fleetwood can we win at Highbury. We have not done it yet. This season it is looking like a must win.
That draw yesterday was not a disaster as a defeat would have been but 2 points dropped may prove very costly. We really needed to win, with those other results yesterday.
We keep going, keep the faith, give our 100% support and who knows. I certainly have not thrown in the towel, we could pull it off but the odds are stacked against.
If we do pull off the great escape then GM should be given the freedom of Doncaster.
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Form: Last 10 matches
GP W D L GF GA GD Pts Opponents PPG
1 Rotherham 10 8 1 1 16 2 +14 25 1.26
2 Milton Keynes 10 7 2 1 13 5 +8 23 1.39
3 Bolton 10 7 1 2 23 10 +13 22 1.36
4 Sheffield Wed 10 7 0 3 17 9 +8 21 1.48
5 Oxford Utd 10 6 1 3 25 16 +9 19 1.35
6 Ipswich Town 10 5 3 2 10 5 +5 18 1.25
7 Wigan Athletic 10 5 3 2 14 11 +3 18 1.39
8 Cambridge Utd 10 5 2 3 14 11 +3 17 1.22
9 Plymouth 10 5 1 4 18 14 +4 16 1.35
10 Doncaster 10 4 1 5 10 19 -9 13 1.46
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Massive shame about that goal line block. :(
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Massive shame about that goal line block. :(
Good job Mitchell made his though. :)
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Given our league position draws aren't going to get us out of the relegation zone, wins will only enable the great escape.
That’s true, but if we can draw games we would’ve otherwise got beat in (like yesterday), that will help us too.
Look at the table. We’ve won the most games out of all the teams in the bottom 6 and only 1 less than Cheltenham in 15th. If we’d picked up a few more draws instead of defeats we’d be in with much more of a chance.
One positive is we seem to be failing to score a lot less which gives you more of a chance.
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Given our league position draws aren't going to get us out of the relegation zone, wins will only enable the great escape.
That’s true, but if we can draw games we would’ve otherwise got beat in (like yesterday), that will help us too.
Look at the table. We’ve won the most games out of all the teams in the bottom 6 and only 1 less than Cheltenham in 15th. If we’d picked up a few more draws instead of defeats we’d be in with much more of a chance.
One positive is we seem to be failing to score a lot less which gives you more of a chance.
Think the facts are ( well not facts ) but 95% likely is we will need another 15 points min. That’s 5 wins or 4 wins and 3 draws.
Personally my guess is 45 points required due to inferior goal difference. So 5 wins and 1 draw or 4 wins and 4 draws.
It a huge ask but with some of the games against relegation rivals not impossible.
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Form: Last 10 matches
GP W D L GF GA GD Pts Opponents PPG
1 Rotherham 10 8 1 1 16 2 +14 25 1.26
2 Milton Keynes 10 7 2 1 13 5 +8 23 1.39
3 Bolton 10 7 1 2 23 10 +13 22 1.36
4 Sheffield Wed 10 7 0 3 17 9 +8 21 1.48
5 Oxford Utd 10 6 1 3 25 16 +9 19 1.35
6 Ipswich Town 10 5 3 2 10 5 +5 18 1.25
7 Wigan Athletic 10 5 3 2 14 11 +3 18 1.39
8 Cambridge Utd 10 5 2 3 14 11 +3 17 1.22
9 Plymouth 10 5 1 4 18 14 +4 16 1.35
10 Doncaster 10 4 1 5 10 19 -9 13 1.46
Interesting that only Wednesday have played against opposition with a higher ppg than us, I.e. we are 10th in that table having played against an averagely better opposition than nearly everyone else.
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And to top it off,Bolton just equalised in added time to make the gap 8pts now
cant believe that they scored in the 14th minute of 17 minutes injury time you don't realise how significant that Bolton goal will be (yes we might forgive Bolton for their antics if we stay up)
i presumed WIMBLEDON MORECAMBE HAD WON
I HAVE BEEN SAYING FOR YONKS AND YONKS 43 POINTS MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO STAY UP --- SEEN IT ALL BEFORE --
A DRAW IS OK ON TUESDAY ... As the "radio-active" shocking decay of Wimbledon continues
time to try and drum it into your heads once more that 43 points might be enough to stay up
https://www.thefishy.co.uk/leaguetable.php?table=3&season=9
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And to top it off,Bolton just equalised in added time to make the gap 8pts now
cant believe that they scored in the 14th minute of 17 minutes injury time you don't realise how significant that Bolton goal will be (yes we might forgive Bolton for their antics if we stay up)
i presumed WIMBLEDON MORECAMBE HAD WON
I HAVE BEEN SAYING FOR YONKS AND YONKS 43 POINTS MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO STAY UP --- SEEN IT ALL BEFORE --
A DRAW IS OK ON TUESDAY ... As the "radio-active" shocking decay of Wimbledon continues
time to try and drum it into your heads once more that 43 points might be enough to stay up
https://www.thefishy.co.uk/leaguetable.php?table=3&season=9
MIGHT
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and we gave to actually get the 43 points
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And God has decreed 43 points will be enough. Thanks God.
BobG
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We will stay up with 42 points.
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We will stay up with 42 points.
It’s not impossible SCK but very unlikely.
Don’t forget we need an extra point to the team finishising 21st because of our goal difference. ;)
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I know, Campsall. I just think even with that goal difference ,we win more regularly than the teams around us, this will keep us up.
Crewe are as poor as it gets at this level, they will go. Gillingham, Neil Harris or not will also go. Wimbledon will be relegated too. Teams like Lincoln and Shrewsbury will be drawn into the fight to stay up, but Fleetwood will be the final ones to drop through the trap door.
We will stay up by a point.
I see Crewe rock bottom on thirty one points, Gillingham on thirty eight, Wimbledon on thirty nine. Fleetwood on forty one points, Then us fifth bottom and just safe on forty two.
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I know, Campsall. I just think even with that goal difference ,we win more regularly than the teams around us, this will keep us up.
Crewe are as poor as it gets at this level, they will go. Gillingham, Neil Harris or not will also go. Wimbledon will be relegated too. Teams like Lincoln and Shrewsbury will be drawn into the fight to stay up, but Fleetwood will be the final ones to drop through the trap door.
We will stay up by a point.
I see Crewe rock bottom on thirty one points, Gillingham on thirty eight, Wimbledon on thirty nine. Fleetwood on forty one points, Then us fifth bottom and just safe on forty two.
I think you have well underestimated the points totals. We will see.
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I think if any club is to get out of the bottom 4 it will be Gillingham come the end of the season ,they have 11 points from a possible 21
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I think if any club is to get out of the bottom 4 it will be Gillingham come the end of the season ,they have 11 points from a possible 21
That’s only one point more than us
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I think if any club is to get out of the bottom 4 it will be Gillingham come the end of the season ,they have 11 points from a possible 21
If we beat them I predict we will finish above them. I think very good chance of us or Gills will stay up, possibly both.
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And to top it off,Bolton just equalised in added time to make the gap 8pts now
cant believe that they scored in the 14th minute of 17 minutes injury time you don't realise how significant that Bolton goal will be (yes we might forgive Bolton for their antics if we stay up)
i presumed WIMBLEDON MORECAMBE HAD WON
I HAVE BEEN SAYING FOR YONKS AND YONKS 43 POINTS MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO STAY UP --- SEEN IT ALL BEFORE --
A DRAW IS OK ON TUESDAY ... As the "radio-active" shocking decay of Wimbledon continues
time to try and drum it into your heads once more that 43 points might be enough to stay up
https://www.thefishy.co.uk/leaguetable.php?table=3&season=9
The table you linked to shows that 43 points wasn't enough to stay up.
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Some of our better injured players coming back to fitness combined with the January signings give our match day squad a different look.
It looks much stronger in the midfield area, and in defence with Anderson, and in fact looks more like a top half team with the right men coming back to fitness. If they all pull together and play for the team and perform I see no reason why we cannot at least end the season strongly, especially with other teams having games more than ourselves in midweek and could possibly pick up an injury or two.
On the flip side Rowe staying fit for the majority of the games is a must, he gives us a threat going forward nobody else really does.
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I’d take this !!
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I think we all would.
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Fleetwood losing.
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Still on :rtid:
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It's still possible. The GD is irrelevant and has been for a while. Forget that one and focus on beating the Gills. Next Saturday at 5pm the table could look radically different.
Easy for me to say sat at home I know, so well done to all who went. It sounded shockingly poor.
But the facts are that we are effectively 5 points from safety with 27 to play for.
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We will only start improving significantly when the likes of Bostock, Galbraith, Anderson and Close return to full fitness.
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Which is not going to be this season. Some may make it back into the squad but it will be too late by time we have our best players fit for 90 minutes.
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We are a poor team, in a mini league of 5-6 poor teams. We have to hope the others fighting it out at the bottom are worse than us for the remainder of the season. We know we can’t defend, so go out and attack. I would rather lose having a go than sit and watch us go all defensive, knowing that it’s only a matter of time until the opposition score.
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Which is not going to be this season. Some may make it back into the squad but it will be too late by time we have our best players fit for 90 minutes.
I think Galbraith will play 90 mins next week,
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Update after yesterday's results:
17th 55, 53, 50 51
18th 49, 53, 50 48
19th 45, 46, 48 42
20th 43, 43, 43 40
++++++++++++++++++++
21st 40, 41, 42 39
22nd 39,40, 41 39
23rd 36, 38, 40 38
24th 30, 27, 33 28
Some dips in the projected final points tally. That's because literally NO team near the relegation zone is in anything remotely resembling form. 7 of the bottom 8 have averaged 1 ppg or less over the past 10 games, which is standard relegation form. The average ppg over the past ten games for all those bottom 8 sides equates to 36 points over a season. In other words, on average, all the bottom 8 are in form equivalent to finishing in 24th spot if it was stretched over a full season. It puts to bed that old wives' tale about how some team always finds form to pull away.
This must be one of the worst groups of teams at this level in living memory. If 40 points actually ends up being enough to clinch 5th bottom (NB: I doubt it will be - just the odd win or two would change things significantly) I doubt there would have been anything like that in English football history.
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Update after yesterday's results:
17th 55, 53, 50 51
18th 49, 53, 50 48
19th 45, 46, 48 42
20th 43, 43, 43 40
++++++++++++++++++++
21st 40, 41, 42 39
22nd 39,40, 41 39
23rd 36, 38, 40 38
24th 30, 27, 33 28
Some dips in the projected final points tally. That's because literally NO team near the relegation zone is in anything remotely resembling form. 7 of the bottom 8 have averaged 1 ppg or less over the past 10 games, which is standard relegation form. The average ppg over the past ten games for all those bottom 8 sides equates to 36 points over a season. In other words, on average, all the bottom 8 are in form equivalent to finishing in 24th spot if it was stretched over a full season. It puts to bed that old wives' tale about how some team always finds form to pull away.
This must be one of the worst groups of teams at this level in living memory. If 40 points actually ends up being enough to clinch 5th bottom (NB: I doubt it will be - just the odd win or two would change things significantly) I doubt there would have been anything like that in English football history.
No coincidence it’s the season after Covid
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We just need to get (at least) one point more than the team in 21st place..
Kind of stating the obvious, but the actual points total is irrelevant.
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Exactly right ^^^^
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We just need to get (at least) one point more than the team in 21st place..
Kind of stating the obvious, but the actual points total is irrelevant.
Agreed. But there is a probability about how many points you need to finish one place above 4th bottom. Looking at what that might be can help you make the right decisions. Not looking at that can f**k your season up, like in 13/14 where we regularly announced we had a 50 point target, when it was obvious 6-8 weeks out that 45 points was a more likely one. We went balls out to win several matches where we could have ground out a draw. And we went down by one point. That was unforgivable amateurishness.
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That outcome was only known with hindsight though.
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We need to approach each game with a best plan to try and win, and also have a don’t lose approach. Mind you, that could be said about any fixture throughout the season..
We just need to run faster than the other guy, when being chased by a lion.
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We need to approach each game with a best plan to try and win, and also have a don’t lose approach. Mind you, that could be said about any fixture throughout the season..
We just need to run faster than the other guy, when being chased by a lion.
The attitude that you have to go out to win every game led to us playing a pitifully unfit Wellens against Bolton and led to us going gung-ho for a winner against Reading in late 13/14.
We lost both. A point from either would have got us to a target that was looking like the safe level from weeks out.
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We need to approach each game with a best plan to try and win, and also have a don’t lose approach. Mind you, that could be said about any fixture throughout the season..
We just need to run faster than the other guy, when being chased by a lion.
The attitude that you have to go out to win every game led to us playing a pitifully unfit Wellens against Bolton and led to us going gung-ho for a winner against Reading in late 13/14.
We lost both. A point from either would have got us to a target that was looking like the safe level from weeks out.
The two positions are incomparable. In 13/14 we were virtually safe with 6 games to go - we should have played safe.
Right now, if we play safe and draw every game (which will actually be quite an achievement) we will be relegated.
We have to gamble.
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Not if the other teams pick up only 4 points each from now to end of season :-))
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Not if the other teams pick up only 4 points each from now to end of season :-))
Agreed Raven, but as in the 13/14 situation, we won’t know until the season ends, hindsight again.
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We need to approach each game with a best plan to try and win, and also have a don’t lose approach. Mind you, that could be said about any fixture throughout the season..
We just need to run faster than the other guy, when being chased by a lion.
The attitude that you have to go out to win every game led to us playing a pitifully unfit Wellens against Bolton and led to us going gung-ho for a winner against Reading in late 13/14.
We lost both. A point from either would have got us to a target that was looking like the safe level from weeks out.
I’m not talking about going gung-ho to win at all costs, just starting games with the best plan to try and win..
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We need to approach each game with a best plan to try and win, and also have a don’t lose approach. Mind you, that could be said about any fixture throughout the season..
We just need to run faster than the other guy, when being chased by a lion.
The attitude that you have to go out to win every game led to us playing a pitifully unfit Wellens against Bolton and led to us going gung-ho for a winner against Reading in late 13/14.
We lost both. A point from either would have got us to a target that was looking like the safe level from weeks out.
I’m not talking about going gung-ho to win at all costs, just starting games with the best plan to try and win..
If only Wellens thought of that at the start of the season we’d be in the playoffs!
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Update after today's results:
17th 55, 53, 50, 51 51
18th 49, 53, 50, 48 47
19th 45, 46, 48, 42 46
20th 43, 43, 43, 40 38
++++++++++++++++++++
21st 40, 41, 42, 39 38
22nd 39,40, 41, 39 38
23rd 36, 38, 40, 38 37
24th 30, 27, 33, 28 28
A quite incredibly shite bottom bunch. And we look like being unable to win 40 points to survive.
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Da da da da…
No, sorry, not even my heart is in it tonight.
But it still ain’t quite over.
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Da da da da…
No, sorry, not even my heart is in it tonight.
But it still ain’t quite over.
It’s over, stop kidding yourself, these players have not got the heart or desire to fight for our league position, they have given up
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You’re right Filo and that has really pissed me off today because a scrappy pathetic win would have seen us on the brink of safety.
But apart from 2 or 3 players today we looked like we didn’t care. That’s what hurt. We should have been tearing into them but we did nothing of the sort. Smith had the right attitude (as always) and he wasn’t even picked to start! I found that staggering.
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I feel most sorry for Terry Bramall. He’s ploughed tens of millions in to the club and it is in a poorer position on the pitch than it was when he got involved in 2006. He is 80 this year and has a load of hassle around the club now and nobody else to share this with. It’s an absolute shambolic situation. Along with the Watsons he has done the hard yards setting the club up and the footballing set up is beyond amateur. Everything about the last couple of seasons has been a total disaster and there is no sign this so going to improve soon.
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The people around him have failed in their jobs. Those picking the manager, those scouting the players, the manager himself, his staff and the players. It has been a mess for some time. Any signings are papering over the cracks.
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Update after yesterday's results
17th 55, 53, 50, 51 51 52
18th 49, 53, 50, 48, 47 50
19th 45, 46, 48, 42, 46 44
20th 43, 43, 43, 40, 38 38
++++++++++++++++++++
21st 40, 41, 42, 39, 3837
22nd 39,40, 41, 39, 3837
23rd 36, 38, 40, 38, 3737
24th 30, 27, 33, 28, 28 27
Quite incredible just how bad this bottom 5-6 really are. Only Gillingham are in anything like reasonable form and even their form is enhanced by the fact that they played us on Saturday. The other 5 have, between them gained 30 points in the past 50 games (10 games each side). That equates to that group eing in form that would get the five of them an average of 27.6 points over a season.
It's like having five sides who are not much better than we were in 97/98.
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So we need 9 points for safety?
If we win at Fleetwood that's 6 points from 7 games. Beat Crewe, lose to Wycombe, draw the other 4. Job done.
Da da da da....
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So we need 9 points for safety?
If we win at Fleetwood that's 6 points from 7 games. Beat Crewe, lose to Wycombe, draw the other 4. Job done.
Da da da da....
It's never as definitive as that. This is a broad guide. I'm thinking a team could survive this season with 41-42 points.
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I thought we would Win recent games but sadly was wrong. How we will be successful with this team in the remaining games is very difficult to se happening but we can hope.
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Saturday is now absolutely crucial. If we lose to Fleetwood, given that they still have Crewe, Gillingham and Wimbledone to play, they will effectively be very close to being over the line. And if we do lose to a side that hasn't won for 12 games, I fear for our chances of picking up many more points.
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I think whoever stays up will need more points than that.
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I think whoever stays up will need more points than that.
I did a couple of weeks ago. Think 41 may be enough now. 43 will almost certainly by the looks of it.
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I think whoever stays up will need more points than that.
I'd been thinking the same. But barring Gillingham, all the bottom 6 are in awful form. And there aren't many obvious easy sources of points for most sides in the run-in. Gillingham in particular have a horrendous run-in with 5 sides from the top 10 still to play.
I think any side who gets 43 points will almost certainly survive.
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I think whoever stays up will need more points than that.
I'd been thinking the same. But barring Gillingham, all the bottom 6 are in awful form. And there aren't many obvious easy sources of points for most sides in the run-in. Gillingham in particular have a horrendous run-in with 5 sides from the top 10 still to play.
I think any side who gets 43 points will almost certainly survive.
We are getting to the time of the season where some teams start downing tools. Pretty sure teams will pick up more points in the next 8 games than they have in the previous 8. Not a high bar admittedly.
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You'd think through pure desperation and kitchen sink throwing as it gets closer to the end of the season the teams at the bottom will get a win here and there. As Gaz says especially against mid table teams who are on the beach.
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I think whoever stays up will need more points than that.
I'd been thinking the same. But barring Gillingham, all the bottom 6 are in awful form. And there aren't many obvious easy sources of points for most sides in the run-in. Gillingham in particular have a horrendous run-in with 5 sides from the top 10 still to play.
I think any side who gets 43 points will almost certainly survive.
We are getting to the time of the season where some teams start downing tools. Pretty sure teams will pick up more points in the next 8 games than they have in the previous 8. Not a high bar admittedly.
Is that just an old wives tale?
18/19 was the last normal season we had. From this point until the end of the season, the sides who ended up in the bottom 4 picked up 5, 2, 5 and 5 points.
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This none sense about mid table teams being on the beach is exactly that none sense.
In reality it doesn’t happen. Please show me some evidence it does.
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This none sense about mid table teams being on the beach is exactly that none sense.
In reality it doesn’t happen. Please show me some evidence it does.
We made a good fist of it in our last season in League 2.
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This none sense about mid table teams being on the beach is exactly that none sense.
In reality it doesn’t happen. Please show me some evidence it does.
We made a good fist of it in our last season in League 2.
We weren’t mid table either.
It still niggles that we missed out on that title.
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Me too hound.
I can’t believe how unprofessional that was. We had done all of the hard work and then players and management just seemed to turn off.
That would never have happened with the Rob Jones side.
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Me too hound.
I can’t believe how unprofessional that was. We had done all of the hard work and then players and management just seemed to turn off.
That would never have happened with the Rob Jones side.
It very nearly did happen with the Rob Jones side! We lost 2 games in 3 after being clear at the top, and that would have been 3 in 4 and a drop into the playoffs if Brentford had had someone who could hold their nerve. Not as much of a throwaway as Fergie’s side but would still have been one.
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Saturday is now absolutely crucial. If we lose to Fleetwood, given that they still have Crewe, Gillingham and Wimbledone to play, they will effectively be very close to being over the line. And if we do lose to a side that hasn't won for 12 games, I fear for our chances of picking up many more points.
There is sadly not a scrap of evidence to suggest we can get a win away at Fleetwood.
Fundamentally, we are a dreadful side that at the business end of the season is getting worse not better.
Historically we have a truly horrific record away at Fleetwood. We have played 6 league games at their place, have never won, managed two goalless draws and lost 4 games. In those six games we have only managed to score 3 goals (Natan Tyson in October 2014, Niall Ennis in February 2020 and most recently Jason Lokilo in February 2021).
Given at the very least we need to score a single goal to win, and we average 0.5 goals per game away at Fleetwood, this does look something of a stretch.
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We get results in park the bus displays against better teams where we get a bit of luck to score. Weirdly i'd be more confident if we were playing the top teams than those around us.
We can't create anything and are so bad in defence it's dangerous to try to. But that is what we will have to do to stay up.
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Fleetwood aren't great but they'll know that all they have to do is contain us and wait for us to make our inevitable mistakes.
The last two displays have taken us backwards and not created anything like a platform for the run in. I hope I'm proved utterly wrong and that this group of players find something from within at Fleetwood that gets a win and makes us all believe that they can finish the season on a high and not with a whimper.
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We just can't start the game poorly. Once Gillingham scored that was game over really. It shouldn't have been but we can easily be contained. Results we've got have been just by hanging in there and sneaking a goal from a set play or a break. 1st 45min needs to be a clean sheet from us and go from there
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What’s the betting that if we win so will all or most of them around us.
That would be typical of us.
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Saturday is now absolutely crucial. If we lose to Fleetwood, given that they still have Crewe, Gillingham and Wimbledone to play, they will effectively be very close to being over the line. And if we do lose to a side that hasn't won for 12 games, I fear for our chances of picking up many more points.
There is sadly not a scrap of evidence to suggest we can get a win away at Fleetwood.
Fundamentally, we are a dreadful side that at the business end of the season is getting worse not better.
Historically we have a truly horrific record away at Fleetwood. We have played 6 league games at their place, have never won, managed two goalless draws and lost 4 games. In those six games we have only managed to score 3 goals (Natan Tyson in October 2014, Niall Ennis in February 2020 and most recently Jason Lokilo in February 2021).
Given at the very least we need to score a single goal to win, and we average 0.5 goals per game away at Fleetwood, this does look something of a stretch.
Which is why I lowered the bar and said it is crucial that we do not lose.
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Update after today
17th 55, 53, 50, 51 51, 52 52
18th 49, 53, 50, 48, 47, 50 51
19th 45, 46, 48, 42, 46, 44 42
20th 43, 43, 43, 40, 38, 38 38
++++++++++++++++++++
21st 40, 41, 42, 39, 38, 37 38
22nd 39,40, 41, 39, 38, 37 38
23rd 36, 38, 40, 38, 37, 37 37
24th 30, 27, 33, 28, 28. 27 27
Really settled down now. Still looking like 40-42 points will comfortably see someone safe.
Still looking like precious-little chance of us getting to that number.
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I doubt very much that we have got what it takes to get to 40/42 points.
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I can’t understand why people on here and on Twitter get some up and down after every result. We’ve had somewhere between 4% and 7% chance for survival for months now. We’ve not improved and we’ve not got worse, we are what we are, not very good.
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https://thefishy.co.uk/calc.php
I've done the predictor and it looks like we're going to be ok.
I've got us down for three streaky wins versus Charlton Burton and Crewe mind
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If we can't score against Cheltenham, Gillingham or Fleetwood I don't fancy wins at Charlton and Burton Albion.
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I can’t understand why people on here and on Twitter get some up and down after every result. We’ve had somewhere between 4% and 7% chance for survival for months now. We’ve not improved and we’ve not got worse, we are what we are, not very good.
You are being too generous. It’s not that we are not very good, we are just rank bad, dreadful, horrific. We simply cannot string more than a couple of passes together and must be the weakest attacking threat in the entire league.
We need to win games. To win games we need to score at least a goal. We average 0.7 goals a game this season and about the same over the last 10 games. We are simply not going to get 3 points unless we can score.
This is without question the most toothless Rovers side in living memory. They are absolutely non-existent as an attacking threat. I’m embarrassed for them they are so bad.
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Given everything that's gone on this season, to be in a situation where 3 wins and a draw would keep us up - and with three home games to play against teams in the bottom half of the table - is remarkable.
And hugely frustrating.
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If we can't score against Cheltenham, Gillingham or Fleetwood I don't fancy wins at Charlton and Burton Albion.
We are at home against both Charlton and Burton.
That will make all the difference. :chair:
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Given everything that's gone on this season, to be in a situation where 3 wins and a draw would keep us up - and with three home games to play against teams in the bottom half of the table - is remarkable.
And hugely frustrating.
You don’t know 3 wins and a draw will keep us up. That gives us 40 points. It might. Even less might.
But Fleetwood and Gillingham, will only need 2 wins to be above us on goal difference. Wimbledon 2 wins and a draw.
Those 2 dropped points yesterday were crucial. I think they could be the difference.
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The difference, Campsall, is the second half capitulation at Morecambe. That will come back to bite us on the rear end.
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The difference isn’t one particular game or another.
It is a series of poor performances over the whole season.
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The difference, Campsall, is the second half capitulation at Morecambe. That will come back to bite us on the rear end.
Agree. Your right. But we had an opportunity to close the gap on Fleetwood to 1 point yesterday and we blew it.
They were there for the taking and we went about it as if we were having a kick about on the park.
No desire to go and do the job that needed doing, no urgency, no control, no leadership.
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All the teams around us aren’t winning though, so games in hand aren’t much use to them.
Can’t see Wimbledon, Crewe, morecambe getting 45 points. So it’s between us, Gillingham, fleetwood, Shrewsbury, Lincoln.
Shrewsbury and Lincoln certainly, and Fleetwood and Gillingham potentially, are not going down. We are.
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All the teams around us aren’t winning though, so games in hand aren’t much use to them.
Can’t see Wimbledon, Crewe, morecambe getting 45 points. So it’s between us, Gillingham, fleetwood, Shrewsbury, Lincoln.
Shrewsbury and Lincoln certainly, and Fleetwood and Gillingham potentially, are not going down. We are.
Are you replying to my post from 6 weeks ago?
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All the teams around us aren’t winning though, so games in hand aren’t much use to them.
Can’t see Wimbledon, Crewe, morecambe getting 45 points. So it’s between us, Gillingham, fleetwood, Shrewsbury, Lincoln.
Shrewsbury and Lincoln certainly, and Fleetwood and Gillingham potentially, are not going down. We are.
I mean tbf CBCB we are only 7 points behind. 15 to play for
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We won’t need maximum points to stay up, these sides around us are very poor as well
We must start winning though the time is dwindling away. We need performance’s that are win at all costs. The players we have there is enough in them to stay up, they have shown it before against Sunderland and other sides.
Start playing some football, enjoy it and start working the opposition goalkeeper.
Fifteen points to play for, a win in the next one opens the opportunity back up.
Someone can be the one who gets us that win.
I would go 4-4-2 get Kuleya and Martin out wide, get some crosses in, start running at defenders.
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I wish Sammy. I wish. But the evidence is overwhelming. If it happened it'd be the biggest surprise this side of Santa being real. This squad has gone.
BobG
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Are we going to get another point or goal all season? Irrelevant talking about staying up we just haven’t got it in us
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We won’t need maximum points to stay up, these sides around us are very poor as well
We must start winning though the time is dwindling away. We need performance’s that are win at all costs. The players we have there is enough in them to stay up, they have shown it before against Sunderland and other sides.
Start playing some football, enjoy it and start working the opposition goalkeeper.
Fifteen points to play for, a win in the next one opens the opportunity back up.
Someone can be the one who gets us that win.
I would go 4-4-2 get Kuleya and Martin out wide, get some crosses in, start running at defenders.
I admire your optimism SCK but even 4 wins in our last 5 games may not be enough now.
We must give it everything in these last games but we will have to possibly do the reverse of what we did in April 2017 when we got 1 point from the last 5 games.
Even dickos must believe that is fantasy.
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So our season seems to be ending the same way as the film, 50 PoW were shot after capture and only 3 managed to make it home the rest were shipped back to PoW camps which in our case is the equivalent to League2
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We have only won four games in 2022. To replicate that in a spell of the final six games would be extraordinary to say the least. We haven’t won in seven games and haven’t scored a goal in five games.
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In terms of the great escape analagy, we’ve just found out the motorbike has two flat tyres.
And the fence we have to jump is now twice as high.
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And it's razor not barbed wire :-))
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In terms of the great escape analagy, we’ve just found out the motorbike has two flat tyres.
And the fence we have to jump is now twice as high.
lets bring you down to earth for a minute you need "tunnel vision" to escape out of this
"under or over" as the phrase goes me thinx
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We won’t need maximum points to stay up, these sides around us are very poor as well
We must start winning though the time is dwindling away. We need performance’s that are win at all costs. The players we have there is enough in them to stay up, they have shown it before against Sunderland and other sides.
Start playing some football, enjoy it and start working the opposition goalkeeper.
Fifteen points to play for, a win in the next one opens the opportunity back up.
Someone can be the one who gets us that win.
I would go 4-4-2 get Kuleya and Martin out wide, get some crosses in, start running at defenders.
I admire your optimism SCK but even 4 wins in our last 5 games may not be enough now.
We must give it everything in these last games but we will have to possibly do the reverse of what we did in April 2017 when we got 1 point from the last 5 games.
Even dickos must believe that is fantasy.
I said a month ago that if we didn’t get 3 points from Gillingham and fleetwood we were down.
So yeah I think it’s all over,
Crewe and Burton though are games we will
Probably win, but we probably need 4 or 5 points from the other 3 games
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We'll 0-0 draw v Crewe then lose to Burton.
Will the players be clapping the fans at the end of the last game of the season, and so we can show our support and appreciation of their brilliant performances this season?
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In terms of the great escape analagy, we’ve just found out the motorbike has two flat tyres.
And the fence we have to jump is now twice as high.
lets bring you down to earth for a minute you need "tunnel vision" to escape out of this
"under or over" as the phrase goes me thinx
Well I suppose you could ask any Tom Dick or Harry for an opinion
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For what it's worth after the latest results
17th 55, 53, 50, 51 51, 52, 52, 52
18th 49, 53, 50, 48, 47, 50, 51, 50
19th 45, 46, 48, 42, 46, 44, 42, 43
20th 43, 43, 43, 40, 38, 38, 38, 41
++++++++++++++++++++
21st 40, 41, 42, 39, 38, 37, 38, 41
22nd 39,40, 41, 39, 38, 37, 38, 37
23rd 36, 38, 40, 38, 37, 37, 37, 37
24th 30, 27, 33, 28, 28. 27, 27, 26
For the record, our form over the last 10 games. while poor has been the second best of the bottom 6. we have won 11 points and only Gillingham with 12 have done better.
Crewe have 3
Wimbledon 4
Morecambe 8
Fleetwood 6.
So we have improved, relative to the dross around us, but we were starting from so far back that it still looks like being too little, too late. Looks like we'll need 8-9 points from the final 3 games to have any reasonable chance.
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We have no chance of staying up ,we have not won back to back games since March 2021 ,never mind 4 on the bounce
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For what it's worth after the latest results
17th 55, 53, 50, 51 51, 52, 52, 52
18th 49, 53, 50, 48, 47, 50, 51, 50
19th 45, 46, 48, 42, 46, 44, 42, 43
20th 43, 43, 43, 40, 38, 38, 38, 41
++++++++++++++++++++
21st 40, 41, 42, 39, 38, 37, 38, 41
22nd 39,40, 41, 39, 38, 37, 38, 37
23rd 36, 38, 40, 38, 37, 37, 37, 37
24th 30, 27, 33, 28, 28. 27, 27, 26
For the record, our form over the last 10 games. while poor has been the second best of the bottom 6. we have won 11 points and only Gillingham with 12 have done better.
Crewe have 3
Wimbledon 4
Morecambe 8
Fleetwood 6.
So we have improved, relative to the dross around us, but we were starting from so far back that it still looks like being too little, too late. Looks like we'll need 8-9 points from the final 3 games to have any reasonable chance.
It will have to be 9 points from the final 3 points as 8 is impossible.
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We have 4 games left, so 8 points is technically still possible.
We are stretching the definition of the word “possible” there though, if we are saying this side can get 2 wins and 2 draws from 4 games - the sort of form we haven’t exhibited over a 4 game period all season.
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Or indeed form we have not seen going back to early 2021.
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For what it's worth after the latest results
17th 55, 53, 50, 51 51, 52, 52, 52
18th 49, 53, 50, 48, 47, 50, 51, 50
19th 45, 46, 48, 42, 46, 44, 42, 43
20th 43, 43, 43, 40, 38, 38, 38, 41
++++++++++++++++++++
21st 40, 41, 42, 39, 38, 37, 38, 41
22nd 39,40, 41, 39, 38, 37, 38, 37
23rd 36, 38, 40, 38, 37, 37, 37, 37
24th 30, 27, 33, 28, 28. 27, 27, 26
For the record, our form over the last 10 games. while poor has been the second best of the bottom 6. we have won 11 points and only Gillingham with 12 have done better.
Crewe have 3
Wimbledon 4
Morecambe 8
Fleetwood 6.
So we have improved, relative to the dross around us, but we were starting from so far back that it still looks like being too little, too late. Looks like we'll need 8-9 points from the final 3 games to have any reasonable chance.
If that prediction comes to fruition then we will need min 9 points as our GD is the worst of the bottom 6 by a long way!!
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Why do we do this to ourselves?
I’ve looked at this fridays key fixtures again.
Here is my wish list.
Crewe beat wimbledon.
Rovers beat Bolton
Gills lose at Cheltenham
Morcambe lose at charlton
Fleetwood get beat by Oxford.
All of this, with the exception perhaps of rovers are very plausible outcomes. All of the winning sides I propose would be odds on. Except rovers of course.
That would leave the table looking like this. All played same amount of games except Fleetwood.
Fleetwood 38*
Morcambe 38
Gills 38
Rovers. 36
Dons. 35
Crewe. 28
Fleetwood have a game in hand which is at home to wendies.
Rovers could, in theory, be out of the relegation zone come bank holiday Monday teatime. If the planets align. And if they get their shit together against Bolton and Shrewsbury.
Edit.just checked odds and Crewe are around 2/1 for their home win, the rest are around even money. Rovers are around 3/1 to beat Bolton.
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I guess the big question would be 'what would be the point of swerving the drop'? With this manager and similar team next season in LG1 would probably mean another 4000+ minutes of trawling the toilet bowl.
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I think we could beat Bolton, but the team would need to improve again from the performance against Crewe.
We were beaten comfortably earlier in the season by them, we couldn’t handle their forwards.
We were wide open in midfield when we played them. I think the midfield is a little bit better now with Bostock and Clayton in there.
We would need to go for the win, try and get something to defend.
At some point they will threaten as they have good forwards. I’m going to stick my neck out and say I think we will keep a clean sheet and beat them 2-0.
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Why do we do this to ourselves?
I’ve looked at this fridays key fixtures again.
Here is my wish list.
Crewe beat wimbledon.
Rovers beat Bolton
Gills lose at Cheltenham
Morcambe lose at charlton
Fleetwood get beat by Oxford.
All of this, with the exception perhaps of rovers are very plausible outcomes. All of the winning sides I propose would be odds on. Except rovers of course.
That would leave the table looking like this. All played same amount of games except Fleetwood.
Fleetwood 38*
Morcambe 38
Gills 38
Rovers. 36
Dons. 35
Crewe. 28
Fleetwood have a game in hand which is at home to wendies.
Rovers could, in theory, be out of the relegation zone come bank holiday Monday teatime. If the planets align. And if they get their shit together against Bolton and Shrewsbury.
Edit.just checked odds and Crewe are around 2/1 for their home win, the rest are around even money. Rovers are around 3/1 to beat Bolton.
I’d accepted it too NR but we can’t help ourselves
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I think we could beat Bolton, but the team would need to improve again from the performance against Crewe.
We were beaten comfortably earlier in the season by them, we couldn’t handle their forwards.
We were wide open in midfield when we played them. I think the midfield is a little bit better now with Bostock and Clayton in there.
We would need to go for the win, try and get something to defend.
At some point they will threaten as they have good forwards. I’m going to stick my neck out and say I think we will keep a clean sheet and beat them 2-0.
I should think it was comfortable we were down to 10 men for a large proportion of the game
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I think we could beat Bolton, but the team would need to improve again from the performance against Crewe.
We were beaten comfortably earlier in the season by them, we couldn’t handle their forwards.
We were wide open in midfield when we played them. I think the midfield is a little bit better now with Bostock and Clayton in there.
We would need to go for the win, try and get something to defend.
At some point they will threaten as they have good forwards. I’m going to stick my neck out and say I think we will keep a clean sheet and beat them 2-0.
I should think it was comfortable we were down to 10 men for a large proportion of the game
They'd have still pumped us without the sending off. Our midfield and defence were abysmal that night.
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We weren’t good but that is one of the worst decisions I’ve seen, especially if you put it into context and compare the assault that Younger suffered at Wimbledon
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I don’t think we would have done anything with fourteen men on the pitch, in the last game against them.
It makes no sense to predict for us to beat them. It’s just a feeling I have that we will. It could be an infection though
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Very very unlikely 0 0 ?
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I don’t think we would have done anything with fourteen men on the pitch, in the last game against them.
It makes no sense to predict for us to beat them. It’s just a feeling I have that we will. It could be an infection though
I thought we were the better team for the first 20-30 minutes.
A bad first goal and then a ridiculous sending off then made it a very uneven contest.
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I don’t think we would have done anything with fourteen men on the pitch, in the last game against them.
It makes no sense to predict for us to beat them. It’s just a feeling I have that we will. It could be an infection though
I thought we were the better team for the first 20-30 minutes.
A bad first goal and then a ridiculous sending off then made it a very uneven contest.
Yeah if I remember they were going through a bit of a sticky patch at the time & looked very nervous until the first goal went in. Then Olowu got the red that should have only been a yellow at best and the contest was over!
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I don’t think we would have done anything with fourteen men on the pitch, in the last game against them.
It makes no sense to predict for us to beat them. It’s just a feeling I have that we will. It could be an infection though
I thought we were the better team for the first 20-30 minutes.
A bad first goal and then a ridiculous sending off then made it a very uneven contest.
Yeah if I remember they were going through a bit of a sticky patch at the time & looked very nervous until the first goal went in. Then Olowu got the red that should have only been a yellow at best and the contest was over!
And Jon Taylor missed the easiest chance I’ve ever seen at 0-0 11v11 when we were on top. Another one to add to the ‘what could have been’ this year.
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I don’t think we would have done anything with fourteen men on the pitch, in the last game against them.
It makes no sense to predict for us to beat them. It’s just a feeling I have that we will. It could be an infection though
I thought we were the better team for the first 20-30 minutes.
A bad first goal and then a ridiculous sending off then made it a very uneven contest.
Yeah if I remember they were going through a bit of a sticky patch at the time & looked very nervous until the first goal went in. Then Olowu got the red that should have only been a yellow at best and the contest was over!
And Jon Taylor missed the easiest chance I’ve ever seen at 0-0 11v11 when we were on top. Another one to add to the ‘what could have been’ this year.
Wow forgot all about Taylor even playing in that game never mind the miss.
One of the few times I’ve left a game early - went as soon as the third went in to get out of the car park
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I can't understand all the fuss about Taylor. He is fast but that's about all.
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Problem is he runs out of pitch. Pace and a brain help a lot.
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just seen on Monday we have Gillingham v Fleetwood
assuming we don't lose -- i am not sure what we want the outcome to be
anyone got any ideas ?
if option (A) we beat Bolton
option(B) we draw
option (C.) :suicide: :suicide: :suicide: :suicide: :suicide: :suicide: :suicide: :suicide: :suicide: :suicide:
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If we win our games which is imperative then a draw it would have to be Gillingham v Fleetwood
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It is Morecambe that has caused us an even bigger problem now.
Spanner in the works winning 2 games.
We need a miracle really. But it is not impossible. Our 4 games are against teams with only pride to play for assuming Oxford don’t win the next 3 games.
Pride can be dangerous though and there is no pressure on them so they can just go out and play without fear.
All the pressure is on us.
Bolton 2-1
Shrewsbury 2-1
Burton 3-1
Oxford 2-2
Well we can dream can’t we. Will 43 points be enough? It might just but goal difference could send us down.
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Just realised I have lost my marbles
That’s 9 goals in 4 games
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I think the sides around us will lose, just we need to do our job and get a result.
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just seen on Monday we have Gillingham v Fleetwood
assuming we don't lose -- i am not sure what we want the outcome to be
anyone got any ideas ?
if option (A) we beat Bolton
option(B) we draw
option (C.) :suicide: :suicide: :suicide: :suicide: :suicide: :suicide: :suicide: :suicide: :suicide: :suicide:
You want Gilingham to beat Fleetwood because we have Fleetwood to play at the UniBol and we have scores to settle with them, plus Fleetwood have a game in hand on you. Just win your own games, you can’t do any more than that.
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It is Morecambe that has caused us an even bigger problem now.
Spanner in the works winning 2 games.
We need a miracle really. But it is not impossible. Our 4 games are against teams with only pride to play for assuming Oxford don’t win the next 3 games.
Dream on, tomorrow will burst that bubble.
Pride can be dangerous though and there is no pressure on them so they can just go out and play without fear.
All the pressure is on us.
Bolton 2-1
Shrewsbury 2-1
Burton 3-1
Oxford 2-2
Well we can dream can’t we. Will 43 points be enough? It might just but goal difference could send us down.
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That's it, were down.
The performances over the last couple of weeks have improved though, we've gone from hoof ball and unable to score or create chances to actually playing football and having opportunities and as long as this is how we go into next season in League Two I'm happy McSheffrey giving it a go. What I've seen today where we need to improve on was we get the ball around the box and we just piss about passing it back and forth, most of these lads lack the balls to make that final killer ball or to run at the goal, past a man. That is what needs addressing in the summer, we need 2-3 like Martin with creativity.
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Need to build a team around Clayton. Would love for Bostock to partner him in middle of park but can't see it in L2
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Mcsheffery might have started playing more attacking football and less hoof ball but we can’t go with him next season. His tactics and game management are appalling. Let him see the season out and rebuild right from the top. I also think the head of football needs to be someone that has nothing to do with this club. We need a fresh pair of eyes a fresh set of ideas if we’re ever to get out of this 2 year slump
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Despite the improvement at times today, it’s in some ways a relief that we are now relegated. This season has disgusted me. I feel nauseous watching us play. It is a side absolutely knee deep in failure and spinelessness.
At every opportunity to do something, they have failed. Getting paperwork sorted for transfers. Failed. Getting players fit. Failed. Protecting leads. Failed. Demonstrating any kind of backbone. Failed.
This is not all on McSheffrey as it goes back 18 months now but this is a team that absolutely reeks of failure. We need to offload as many players as possible including some of the better performers this season and try somehow to get rid of this stench of failure and acceptance of losing.
It’s been an absolute embarrassment this season and given the state of the club and the finances, I have this down relatively as worse than 1997/98.
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Despite the improvement at times today, it’s in some ways a relief that we are now relegated. This season has disgusted me. I feel nauseous watching us play. It is a side absolutely knee deep in failure and spinelessness.
At every opportunity to do something, they have failed. Getting paperwork sorted for transfers. Failed. Getting players fit. Failed. Protecting leads. Failed. Demonstrating any kind of backbone. Failed.
This is not all on McSheffrey as it goes back 18 months now but this is a team that absolutely reeks of failure. We need to offload as many players as possible including some of the better performers this season and try somehow to get rid of this stench of failure and acceptance of losing.
It’s been an absolute embarrassment this season and given the state of the club and the finances, I have this down relatively as worse than 1997/98.
Excellent post, CBCB.
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Despite the improvement at times today, it’s in some ways a relief that we are now relegated. This season has disgusted me. I feel nauseous watching us play. It is a side absolutely knee deep in failure and spinelessness.
At every opportunity to do something, they have failed. Getting paperwork sorted for transfers. Failed. Getting players fit. Failed. Protecting leads. Failed. Demonstrating any kind of backbone. Failed.
This is not all on McSheffrey as it goes back 18 months now but this is a team that absolutely reeks of failure. We need to offload as many players as possible including some of the better performers this season and try somehow to get rid of this stench of failure and acceptance of losing.
It’s been an absolute embarrassment this season and given the state of the club and the finances, I have this down relatively as worse than 1997/98.
Excellent post, CBCB.
Coreect SS, we are a wreck right now.
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Despite the improvement at times today, it’s in some ways a relief that we are now relegated. This season has disgusted me. I feel nauseous watching us play. It is a side absolutely knee deep in failure and spinelessness.
At every opportunity to do something, they have failed. Getting paperwork sorted for transfers. Failed. Getting players fit. Failed. Protecting leads. Failed. Demonstrating any kind of backbone. Failed.
This is not all on McSheffrey as it goes back 18 months now but this is a team that absolutely reeks of failure. We need to offload as many players as possible including some of the better performers this season and try somehow to get rid of this stench of failure and acceptance of losing.
It’s been an absolute embarrassment this season and given the state of the club and the finances, I have this down relatively as worse than 1997/98.
Wow, really Chris? As an outside observer I would have to disagree. I thought your organisation was spot on and the only thing missing was a goal scorer. You created some really good chances but just fluffed the lines at the last minute. Surely you can’t blame GM for that? If you can keep the nucleus of that team together next year but add a decent striker you’ll easily get back up, even if the worst does happen. But it hasn’t yet and whilst I can understand your dejection, you’re not down yet and if you play like you did today and get that bit of luck in front of goal, you can still do it. If you can get to the last day we play Fleetwood at the UniBol and we’ll all be well up for that one and would love to send the Cod army down, so keep chin up, the proverbial fat lady hasn’t sung for Donny yet. Keep believing.
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With the best will in the world Frank, that's the best we've played all season, you were on the beach, and you still beat us.
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Despite the improvement at times today, it’s in some ways a relief that we are now relegated. This season has disgusted me. I feel nauseous watching us play. It is a side absolutely knee deep in failure and spinelessness.
At every opportunity to do something, they have failed. Getting paperwork sorted for transfers. Failed. Getting players fit. Failed. Protecting leads. Failed. Demonstrating any kind of backbone. Failed.
This is not all on McSheffrey as it goes back 18 months now but this is a team that absolutely reeks of failure. We need to offload as many players as possible including some of the better performers this season and try somehow to get rid of this stench of failure and acceptance of losing.
It’s been an absolute embarrassment this season and given the state of the club and the finances, I have this down relatively as worse than 1997/98.
Funnily enough it wasn't long ago we were moaning about always signing players on one year contracts, now what we'd give to have some of these players we have now expiring their one year contracts in a few weeks, not still having another year to go.
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With the best will in the world Frank, that's the best we've played all season, you were on the beach, and you still beat us.
Absof*ckinglutely.
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Unlikely as survival is, I think the players should come out to The Great Escape tune from now until the end of the season, a reminder that it’s still on, and a galvanising tune
It was no the cards from the off !!
https://www.intotheemptynet.com/amp/are-doncaster-rovers-sleepwalking-into-league-two
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Unlikely as survival is, I think the players should come out to The Great Escape tune from now until the end of the season, a reminder that it’s still on, and a galvanising tune
It was no the cards from the off !!
https://www.intotheemptynet.com/amp/are-doncaster-rovers-sleepwalking-into-league-two
That was a very perceptive piece by Rovers Alias.
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The board need to realise that this will not change with this manager. You can get all your head of football’s that you want, it won’t make a difference.
From having plenty of opportunities to stay up, we are now in the position that relegation is all but confirmed. We would need to win all three games and Gillingham in all three. Or at least don’t win again.
The time has come to sack this manager. Start the rebuild and get some optimism now. If need be let Coppinger have it for the last three games. It would be better if they had a new manager in mind, but I would doubt it.
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The board need to realise that this will not change with this manager. You can get all your head of football’s that you want, it won’t make a difference.
From having plenty of opportunities to stay up, we are now in the position that relegation is all but confirmed. We would need to win all three games and Gillingham in all three.
The time has come to sack this manager. Start the rebuild and get some optimism now. If need be let Coppinger have it for the last three games. It would be better if they had a new manager in mind, but I would doubt it.
The end of the season can’t come to soon now . We should count our blessings that we could drop down a league and reassess as mistakes like this in L2 will be even harder to take .
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With the best will in the world Frank, that's the best we've played all season, you were on the beach, and you still beat us.
Fair enough Swinton, I can only go on what I saw today and when we played you at our place and I thought you were much better today. Maybe I’m not seeing it , you can’t all be wrong, you have it every week. I’m sure this would go against the grain but I’d actually stick with GM, let him have a summer a full squad of his own and see what happens. Change doesn’t always work out and I’m sure GM sees the weaknesses just as much as you do. Anyway, none of my business but if you do go down, I hope whoever’s in charge can get you back up next year because you’re far better than a L2 club.
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Thanks for your kind words, Frankie. Hope you enjoyed the day.
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Anyway, back on topic: we're not down yet. OK it looks highly unlikely but it's still theoretically possible to stay up.
3 wins = 42 points. We stay up at the expense of Gills who draw with Fleetwood and lose against Pompey and Rovrum.
Any other fantasy ways we can stay up? Or is that the main route given the fixtures left?
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Anyway, back on topic: we're not down yet. OK it looks highly unlikely but it's still theoretically possible to stay up.
3 wins = 42 points. We stay up at the expense of Gills who draw with Fleetwood and lose against Pompey and Rovrum.
Any other fantasy ways we can stay up? Or is that the main route given the fixtures left?
I think you are taking hope to the extreme. Think Gillingham will beat Fleetwood.
We blew it being totally useless in the 2nd half at Morecambe and at Fleetwood.
But of course over 43 games we simply have not been good enough. Even with our poor defensive record if we had a goalscorer we would not be going down.
Cole Stockton has been the difference for Morecambe. Without him they would be in the bottom 2 in this league.
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Anyway, back on topic: we're not down yet. OK it looks highly unlikely but it's still theoretically possible to stay up.
3 wins = 42 points. We stay up at the expense of Gills who draw with Fleetwood and lose against Pompey and Rovrum.
Any other fantasy ways we can stay up? Or is that the main route given the fixtures left?
It’s time to give up on the hope pal.
You’ll feel a lot better for it.
Stop prolonging the pain.
It was over long ago in many ways. I’ve clung on, but finally let go yesterday.
It’s cathartic.
Now looking on to next season with trips to Bradford, Hartlepool, Salford, Harrogate,
Leyton orient etc.
And will our old foes Oldham survive the drop?
No Scunthorpe sadly. (Although some will celebrate their demise it would have been a good home payday)
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For what it's worth after the latest results
17th 55, 53, 50, 51 51, 52, 52, 52
18th 49, 53, 50, 48, 47, 50, 51, 50
19th 45, 46, 48, 42, 46, 44, 42, 43
20th 43, 43, 43, 40, 38, 38, 38, 41
++++++++++++++++++++
21st 40, 41, 42, 39, 38, 37, 38, 41
22nd 39,40, 41, 39, 38, 37, 38, 37
23rd 36, 38, 40, 38, 37, 37, 37, 37
24th 30, 27, 33, 28, 28. 27, 27, 26
For the record, our form over the last 10 games. while poor has been the second best of the bottom 6. we have won 11 points and only Gillingham with 12 have done better.
Crewe have 3
Wimbledon 4
Morecambe 8
Fleetwood 6.
So we have improved, relative to the dross around us, but we were starting from so far back that it still looks like being too little, too late. Looks like we'll need 8-9 points from the final 3 games to have any reasonable chance.
Just looking at how these predictions panned out. Pretty well as it happens.
The first prediction was made three months from the end of the season, with 16-17 matches still to go. The predictions that day were correct to within +/-3 points for every position in the bottom 8, and within +/-1 point for 5 of the bottom 8. From that point on, there were 64 predictions made (8 positions, 8 predictions). More than half of those were within 1 point of the final points gained by the team that ended up in that position. 94% were within 3 points either side.
No idea why it seems to work, but I've been saying for years that someone at the club should be looking at analysis like this to get a handle on what the likely end of season target should be, instead of relying on guesswork.