The Great Escape

[BillyStubbsTears]

I think whoever stays up will need more points than that.

I'd been thinking the same. But barring Gillingham, all the bottom 6 are in awful form. And there aren't many obvious easy sources of points for most sides in the run-in. Gillingham in particular have a horrendous run-in with 5 sides from the top 10 still to play.

I think any side who gets 43 points will almost certainly survive.

[GazLaz]

I think whoever stays up will need more points than that.

I'd been thinking the same. But barring Gillingham, all the bottom 6 are in awful form. And there aren't many obvious easy sources of points for most sides in the run-in. Gillingham in particular have a horrendous run-in with 5 sides from the top 10 still to play.

I think any side who gets 43 points will almost certainly survive.

We are getting to the time of the season where some teams start downing tools. Pretty sure teams will pick up more points in the next 8 games than they have in the previous 8. Not a high bar admittedly.

[sedwardsdrfc]

You'd think through pure desperation and kitchen sink throwing as it gets closer to the end of the season the teams at the bottom will get a win here and there. As Gaz says especially against mid table teams who are on the beach.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I think whoever stays up will need more points than that.

I'd been thinking the same. But barring Gillingham, all the bottom 6 are in awful form. And there aren't many obvious easy sources of points for most sides in the run-in. Gillingham in particular have a horrendous run-in with 5 sides from the top 10 still to play.

I think any side who gets 43 points will almost certainly survive.

We are getting to the time of the season where some teams start downing tools. Pretty sure teams will pick up more points in the next 8 games than they have in the previous 8. Not a high bar admittedly.

Is that just an old wives tale?

18/19 was the last normal season we had. From this point until the end of the season, the sides who ended up in the bottom 4 picked up 5, 2, 5 and 5 points.

[Campsall rover]

This none sense about mid table teams being on the beach is exactly that none sense.
In reality it doesn’t happen.  Please show me some evidence it does.

[idler]

This none sense about mid table teams being on the beach is exactly that none sense.
In reality it doesn’t happen.  Please show me some evidence it does.

We made a good fist of it in our last season in League 2.

[drfchound]

This none sense about mid table teams being on the beach is exactly that none sense.
In reality it doesn’t happen.  Please show me some evidence it does.

We made a good fist of it in our last season in League 2.

We weren’t mid table either.
It still niggles that we missed out on that title.

[idler]

Me too hound.
I can’t believe how unprofessional that was. We had done all of the hard work and then players and management just seemed to turn off.
That would never have happened with the Rob Jones side.

[NickDRFC]

Me too hound.
I can’t believe how unprofessional that was. We had done all of the hard work and then players and management just seemed to turn off.
That would never have happened with the Rob Jones side.

It very nearly did happen with the Rob Jones side! We lost 2 games in 3 after being clear at the top, and that would have been 3 in 4 and a drop into the playoffs if Brentford had had someone who could hold their nerve. Not as much of a throwaway as Fergie’s side but would still have been one.

[Chris Black come back]

Saturday is now absolutely crucial. If we lose to Fleetwood, given that they still have Crewe, Gillingham and Wimbledone to play, they will effectively be very close to being over the line. And if we do lose to a side that hasn't won for 12 games, I fear for our chances of picking up many more points.

There is sadly not a scrap of evidence to suggest we can get a win away at Fleetwood.

Fundamentally, we are a dreadful side that at the business end of the season is getting worse not better.

Historically we have a truly horrific record away at Fleetwood. We have played 6 league games at their place, have never won, managed two goalless draws and lost 4 games. In those six games we have only managed to score 3 goals (Natan Tyson in October 2014, Niall Ennis in February 2020 and most recently Jason Lokilo in February 2021).

Given at the very least we need to score a single goal to win, and we average 0.5 goals per game away at Fleetwood, this does look something of a stretch.

[sedwardsdrfc]

We get results in park the bus displays against better teams where we get a bit of luck to score. Weirdly i'd be more confident if we were playing the top teams than those around us.

We can't create anything and are so bad in defence it's dangerous to try to. But that is what we will have to do to stay up.

[BigH]

Fleetwood aren't great but they'll know that all they have to do is contain us and wait for us to make our inevitable mistakes.

The last two displays have taken us backwards and not created anything like a platform for the run in. I hope I'm proved utterly wrong and that this group of players find something from within at Fleetwood that gets a win and makes us all believe that they can finish the season on a high and not with a whimper.

[sedwardsdrfc]

We just can't start the game poorly. Once Gillingham scored that was game over really. It shouldn't have been but we can easily be contained. Results we've got have been just by hanging in there and sneaking a goal from a set play or a break. 1st 45min needs to be a clean sheet from us and go from there

[idler]

What’s the betting that if we win so will all or most of them around us.
That would be typical of us.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Saturday is now absolutely crucial. If we lose to Fleetwood, given that they still have Crewe, Gillingham and Wimbledone to play, they will effectively be very close to being over the line. And if we do lose to a side that hasn't won for 12 games, I fear for our chances of picking up many more points.

There is sadly not a scrap of evidence to suggest we can get a win away at Fleetwood.

Fundamentally, we are a dreadful side that at the business end of the season is getting worse not better.

Historically we have a truly horrific record away at Fleetwood. We have played 6 league games at their place, have never won, managed two goalless draws and lost 4 games. In those six games we have only managed to score 3 goals (Natan Tyson in October 2014, Niall Ennis in February 2020 and most recently Jason Lokilo in February 2021).

Given at the very least we need to score a single goal to win, and we average 0.5 goals per game away at Fleetwood, this does look something of a stretch.

Which is why I lowered the bar and said it is crucial that we do not lose.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Update after today

17th 55, 53, 50, 51 51, 52 52
18th 49, 53, 50, 48, 47, 50 51
19th 45, 46, 48, 42, 46, 44 42
20th 43, 43, 43, 40, 38, 38 38
++++++++++++++++++++
21st 40, 41, 42, 39, 38, 37 38
22nd 39,40, 41, 39, 38, 37 38
23rd 36, 38, 40, 38, 37, 37 37
24th 30, 27, 33, 28, 28. 27 27


Really settled down now. Still looking like 40-42 points will comfortably see someone safe.

Still looking like precious-little chance of us getting to that number.

[drfchound]

I doubt very much that we have got what it takes to get to 40/42 points.

[GazLaz]

I can’t understand why people on here and on Twitter get some up and down after every result. We’ve had somewhere between 4% and 7% chance for survival for months now. We’ve not improved and we’ve not got worse, we are what we are, not very good.

[RugbyRover]

https://thefishy.co.uk/calc.php

I've done the predictor and it looks like we're going to be ok.

I've got us down for three streaky wins versus Charlton Burton and Crewe mind

[Canadian Rover]

If we can't score against Cheltenham, Gillingham or Fleetwood I don't fancy wins at Charlton and Burton Albion.

[Chris Black come back]

I can’t understand why people on here and on Twitter get some up and down after every result. We’ve had somewhere between 4% and 7% chance for survival for months now. We’ve not improved and we’ve not got worse, we are what we are, not very good.

You are being too generous. It’s not that we are not very good, we are just rank bad, dreadful, horrific. We simply cannot string more than a couple of passes together and must be the weakest attacking threat in the entire league.

We need to win games. To win games we need to score at least a goal. We average 0.7 goals a game this season and about the same over the last 10 games. We are simply not going to get 3 points unless we can score.

This is without question the most toothless Rovers side in living memory. They are absolutely non-existent as an attacking threat. I’m embarrassed for them they are so bad.

[BigH]

Given everything that's gone on this season, to be in a situation where 3 wins and a draw would keep us up - and with three home games to play against teams in the bottom half of the table - is remarkable.

And hugely frustrating.

[drfchound]

If we can't score against Cheltenham, Gillingham or Fleetwood I don't fancy wins at Charlton and Burton Albion.

We are at home against both Charlton and Burton.
That will make all the difference.   

[Campsall rover]

Given everything that's gone on this season, to be in a situation where 3 wins and a draw would keep us up - and with three home games to play against teams in the bottom half of the table - is remarkable.

And hugely frustrating.

You don’t know 3 wins and a draw will keep us up. That gives us 40 points. It might. Even less might.
But Fleetwood and Gillingham, will only need 2 wins to be above us on goal difference. Wimbledon 2 wins and a draw.

Those 2 dropped points yesterday were crucial. I think they could be the difference.

[Chris the Rover]

The difference, Campsall, is the second half capitulation at Morecambe. That will come back to bite us on the rear end.

[drfchound]

The difference isn’t one particular game or another.
It is a series of poor performances over the whole season.

[Campsall rover]

The difference, Campsall, is the second half capitulation at Morecambe. That will come back to bite us on the rear end.

Agree. Your right. But we had an opportunity to close the gap on Fleetwood to 1 point yesterday and we blew it.
They were there for the taking and we went about it as if we were having a kick about on the park.

No desire to go and do the job that needed doing, no urgency, no control, no leadership.

[Chris Black come back]

All the teams around us aren’t winning though, so games in hand aren’t much use to them.
Can’t see Wimbledon, Crewe, morecambe getting 45 points. So it’s between us, Gillingham, fleetwood, Shrewsbury, Lincoln.

Shrewsbury and Lincoln certainly, and Fleetwood and Gillingham potentially, are not going down. We are.

[dickos1]

All the teams around us aren’t winning though, so games in hand aren’t much use to them.
Can’t see Wimbledon, Crewe, morecambe getting 45 points. So it’s between us, Gillingham, fleetwood, Shrewsbury, Lincoln.

Shrewsbury and Lincoln certainly, and Fleetwood and Gillingham potentially, are not going down. We are.

Are you replying to my post from 6 weeks ago?

[Redroy]

All the teams around us aren’t winning though, so games in hand aren’t much use to them.
Can’t see Wimbledon, Crewe, morecambe getting 45 points. So it’s between us, Gillingham, fleetwood, Shrewsbury, Lincoln.

Shrewsbury and Lincoln certainly, and Fleetwood and Gillingham potentially, are not going down. We are.

I mean tbf CBCB we are only 7 points behind. 15 to play for