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It was an amazing run - and if any one of those 10 had been a draw we would not have made the playoffs. It really does sink in how we were on a knife edge for all 10 games.
Quote from: VikingRich on May 02, 2024, 10:41:01 amIt was an amazing run - and if any one of those 10 had been a draw we would not have made the playoffs. It really does sink in how we were on a knife edge for all 10 games.That's why this achievement was so unlikely.The odds against us winning all those 10 games were at least 10,000/1.The odds against us winning any 10 of the last 11 were at least 1000/1.
Quote from: BillyStubbsTears on May 02, 2024, 01:03:52 pmQuote from: VikingRich on May 02, 2024, 10:41:01 amIt was an amazing run - and if any one of those 10 had been a draw we would not have made the playoffs. It really does sink in how we were on a knife edge for all 10 games.That's why this achievement was so unlikely.The odds against us winning all those 10 games were at least 10,000/1.The odds against us winning any 10 of the last 11 were at least 1000/1.Out of interest are you using bookies odds on each individual game? If so, chapeauOne model is to assume that a win, draw and defeat are equally likely in each match. In that case the probability of winning 10 in a row is one over 3 to the power 10, or 1/59049, and the probability of winning any 10 or more of 11 is about a tenth of that
Quote from: BillyStubbsTears on May 02, 2024, 01:03:52 pmQuote from: VikingRich on May 02, 2024, 10:41:01 amIt was an amazing run - and if any one of those 10 had been a draw we would not have made the playoffs. It really does sink in how we were on a knife edge for all 10 games.That's why this achievement was so unlikely.The odds against us winning all those 10 games were at least 10,000/1.The odds against us winning any 10 of the last 11 were at least 1000/1.If you factor in the necessary collapse of Barrow and Crewe in the same period for us to get 5th place with just 71 points (which must be improbable in itself most seasons?)… what odds of that?
Quote from: Dutch Uncle on May 02, 2024, 01:32:12 pmQuote from: BillyStubbsTears on May 02, 2024, 01:03:52 pmQuote from: VikingRich on May 02, 2024, 10:41:01 amIt was an amazing run - and if any one of those 10 had been a draw we would not have made the playoffs. It really does sink in how we were on a knife edge for all 10 games.That's why this achievement was so unlikely.The odds against us winning all those 10 games were at least 10,000/1.The odds against us winning any 10 of the last 11 were at least 1000/1.Out of interest are you using bookies odds on each individual game? If so, chapeauOne model is to assume that a win, draw and defeat are equally likely in each match. In that case the probability of winning 10 in a row is one over 3 to the power 10, or 1/59049, and the probability of winning any 10 or more of 11 is about a tenth of thatI'm working on the assumption that on average we'd have been at least 6/4 (40%) for each match. So that gives the probability of ten straight wins as 0.4^10=0.00010 or roughly 10,000/1. against I think 33% is a bit too low as draws are generally less than half as likely as one side or other winnning. As regards the 10 or more of 11, I also worked on the figure of it being roughly 10 times more likely than a straight 10. Pascal's Triangle is a big help.PS.I should say I think the actual odds per game would have averaged out at something like 7/4. In which case I'd be a bit on the low side at 10,000/1 and DU's 60,000/1 would be a bit high.Wherever the true figure is, it's a stunningly unlikely outcome.
Quote from: Wokingviking on May 02, 2024, 05:01:06 pmQuote from: BillyStubbsTears on May 02, 2024, 01:03:52 pmQuote from: VikingRich on May 02, 2024, 10:41:01 amIt was an amazing run - and if any one of those 10 had been a draw we would not have made the playoffs. It really does sink in how we were on a knife edge for all 10 games.That's why this achievement was so unlikely.The odds against us winning all those 10 games were at least 10,000/1.The odds against us winning any 10 of the last 11 were at least 1000/1.If you factor in the necessary collapse of Barrow and Crewe in the same period for us to get 5th place with just 71 points (which must be improbable in itself most seasons?)… what odds of that?If I get chance later I’ll try and find some historical spread betting lines from January. They will give as good a prediction as anything as to the number of points predicted to be needed for a 7th place finish at that point in time.
Rovers forum in Open University shocker.
As gutted as I am we didn't break the record, In a weird way I am glad its ended. Kind of brings everybody back to earth and reminds us that we still have a lot of work to do. There are far too many over confident supporters for my liking. Yes, we have been great but, this wont be easy and we need to put in another 3 massive performances as well as hope we stay clear of injuries and suspensions.