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Rtid.1) Have you been to a big Chinese city? I've not seen much but what I have seen has hygiene levels that are at least on a par with ours.2) England is a more densely populated place than China.3) If you don't buy any of that, what about the death rate in Italy.What I truly don't get about this is that there are experts who spend every working day telling us how dangerous this is. What makes people think their gut feeling is a better guide to what might happen?
How about the death rate in Germany of 0%??
Quote from: dickos1 on March 07, 2020, 09:47:29 amThe two people who had it in York a few weeks back had been going about their daily business for days before they got diagnosed, yet nobody else has caught this virus.It’s nonsense to suggest hundreds of thousands of people are going to die, If it was as serious as that the Cheltenham festival for one wouldn’t be going ahead, well over 500k people there mingling. It wouldn’t be happening On the one hand, we have professors of epidemiology talking about 10s of millions of people in the UK catching this virus and a death rate of 1%.On the other, you have the man who, a couple of weeks ago reckoned Peterborough had nailed down an automatic promotion slot saying that is nonsense.Choices, choices...who to believe?
The two people who had it in York a few weeks back had been going about their daily business for days before they got diagnosed, yet nobody else has caught this virus.It’s nonsense to suggest hundreds of thousands of people are going to die, If it was as serious as that the Cheltenham festival for one wouldn’t be going ahead, well over 500k people there mingling. It wouldn’t be happening
The majority of people being killed worldwide are elderly people with underlying health issues. This OTT panicking is a bigger problem than the virus
Quote from: dickos1 on March 07, 2020, 02:18:59 pmThe majority of people being killed worldwide are elderly people with underlying health issues. This OTT panicking is a bigger problem than the virus I'll repeat the core of the problem. Really patiently because you seem to have missed why the head of the WHO is so concerned about this.1) Elderly people are still "people". The suggestion that it's somehow OK if several tens of millions of them worldwide have their lives cut short, is, frankly, disgusting.2) When epidemics like this reach their peak, the peak is very big and cones very, very quickly.The people who are experts in this say that 50% of the infections will occur over a 3 week period. And the lowest reasonable estimate of the total number of infections that we can expect is about 15% of the population. And indications at the moment are that around 10% of infections have serious effects, and 1% lead to death.Do the numbers. That suggests that, if we don't control this, over a three week period in a month or two, we in the UK will have 500,000 seriously ill people to deal with (we have 100,000 beds in the NHS) and 50,000 excess deaths (you'd normally expect 5000 over that period). THAT is why people who think about this are deeply concerned, and why "meh" is not the response of a serious adult.
BB.The fact that you read posts from me saying we should all be prepared to do what we are advised by the Govt, and conclude from that that there appears to be an "underlying political whinge to the points you make" suggests you're having a problem here.You then go on to criticise my predictions by raising the issue of what might have happened after a crash out hard Brexit 12 months ago. And you point out that those predictions didn't happen. But you ignore the fact that the crash out hard Brexit didn't happen.You have a weird obsession with me and what I say. Or, more to the point, what your bizarre caracature of me in your head says. You have this unsettling need to have an argument with someone who doesn't exist. I genuinely worry about you.
Normally agree with a lot you say BST but the fact is, China is a grossly over populated country, with large parts that have hygiene levels that are utterly shocking. You simply cannot compare the UK to China, yes there will be potentially 1,000's, maybe 10's of thousands that are infected with this illness but the death rate and the spread of it will be nowhere near that of countries like China or Iran.