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I’m still hanging my hat on the fact we need to win all 3. I think anything less than that won’t be enough.
Saturday isn't a mathematical "must win" game, but in practice it's going to be very difficult for us to make 7th place if we don't win.If we DO win this is the very worst the table could look from 5th down5th Crewe 73 - 1 game left6th Crawley 69 - 1 game left 7th Barrow 68 - 2 games left8th Walsall 68 - 1 game left9th Donny 67 - 2 games leftLooking at the odds against Crewe, Crawley and Walsall all winning, it looks like being about 17/1 against the chances of the table looking that bad (assuming we win).The very BEST it could be is:5th Crewe 70 - 1 game left6th Barrow 68 - 2 games left7th Donny 67 - 2 games left8th Crawley 66 - 1 game left 9th Walsall 65 - 1 game leftAgain, assuming we win, the odds against the table looking that good are about 14/1.Those are the two extremes. The likelihood is it'd be somewhere in between. But the take-home is that even the very worst case scenario still leaves us in a decent position if we win. With the best case, we'd need only one more win to guarantee 7th place and looking at the fixtures, we might even make 5th.Now look at the best and worst outcomes if we only draw.Worst.5th Crewe 73 - 1 game left6th Barrow 69 - 2 games left7th Crawley 69 - 1 game left8th Walsall 68 - 1 game left9th Donny 65 - 2 games leftBest5th Crewe 70 - 1 game left6th Barrow 69 - 2 games left 7th Crawley 66 - 1 game left 8th Donny 65 - 2 games left9th Walsall 65 - 1 game leftSame odds on those outcomes. Take home is that if we draw, the worst case scenario is that we are almost out of the running, and even the best case still looks far from a shoo in with the issue going down to the final match.The difference between winning and drawing on Saturday is absolutely enormous. Sing your hearts out. Anyone leaving at 5pm able to talk hasn't performed.
Quote from: BillyStubbsTears on April 17, 2024, 06:48:24 pmSaturday isn't a mathematical "must win" game, but in practice it's going to be very difficult for us to make 7th place if we don't win.If we DO win this is the very worst the table could look from 5th down5th Crewe 73 - 1 game left6th Crawley 69 - 1 game left 7th Barrow 68 - 2 games left8th Walsall 68 - 1 game left9th Donny 67 - 2 games leftLooking at the odds against Crewe, Crawley and Walsall all winning, it looks like being about 17/1 against the chances of the table looking that bad (assuming we win).The very BEST it could be is:5th Crewe 70 - 1 game left6th Barrow 68 - 2 games left7th Donny 67 - 2 games left8th Crawley 66 - 1 game left 9th Walsall 65 - 1 game leftAgain, assuming we win, the odds against the table looking that good are about 14/1.Those are the two extremes. The likelihood is it'd be somewhere in between. But the take-home is that even the very worst case scenario still leaves us in a decent position if we win. With the best case, we'd need only one more win to guarantee 7th place and looking at the fixtures, we might even make 5th.Now look at the best and worst outcomes if we only draw.Worst.5th Crewe 73 - 1 game left6th Barrow 69 - 2 games left7th Crawley 69 - 1 game left8th Walsall 68 - 1 game left9th Donny 65 - 2 games leftBest5th Crewe 70 - 1 game left6th Barrow 69 - 2 games left 7th Crawley 66 - 1 game left 8th Donny 65 - 2 games left9th Walsall 65 - 1 game leftSame odds on those outcomes. Take home is that if we draw, the worst case scenario is that we are almost out of the running, and even the best case still looks far from a shoo in with the issue going down to the final match.The difference between winning and drawing on Saturday is absolutely enormous. Sing your hearts out. Anyone leaving at 5pm able to talk hasn't performed. Very good billy, Interesting to look at all that. I don’t think we’d almost be out the running though if we drew and the worst case. We’d just have to beat Colchester, then go into Saturday only a point off
Saturday isn't a mathematical "must win" game, but in practice it's going to be very difficult for us to make 7th place if we don't win.If we DO win this is the very worst the table could look from 5th down5th Crewe 73 - 1 game left6th Crawley 69 - 1 game left 7th Barrow 68 - 2 games left8th Walsall 68 - 1 game left9th Donny 67 - 2 games leftLooking at the odds against Crewe, Crawley and Walsall all winning, it looks like being about 17/1 against the chances of the table looking that bad (assuming we win).The very BEST it could be is:5th Crewe 70 - 1 game left6th Barrow 68 - 2 games left7th Donny 67 - 2 games left8th Crawley 66 - 1 game left 9th Walsall 65 - 1 game leftAgain, assuming we win, the odds against the table looking that good are about 14/1.Those are the two extremes. The likelihood is it'd be somewhere in between. But the take-home is that even the very worst case scenario still leaves us in a decent position if we win. With the best case, we'd need only one more win to guarantee 7th place and looking at the fixtures, we might even make 5th.Now look at the best and worst outcomes if we only draw.Worst.5th Crewe 73 - 1 game left6th Barrow 69 - 2 games left7th Crawley 69 - 1 game left8th Walsall 68 - 1 game left9th Donny 65 - 2 games leftBest5th Crewe 70 - 1 game left6th Barrow 69 - 2 games left 7th Crawley 66 - 1 game left 8th Donny 65 - 2 games left9th Walsall 65 - 1 game leftSame odds on those outcomes. Take home is that if we draw, the worst case scenario is that we are almost out of the running, and even the best case still looks far from a shoo in with the issue going down to the final match.The difference between winning and drawing on Saturday is absolutely enormous. Sing your hearts out. Anyone leaving at 5pm able to talk hasn't performed.
Individual events are impossible to predict.The probability of groups of events occuring are relatively easy to predict. But many people don't understand what probability is.
Quote from: dickos1 on April 17, 2024, 09:17:46 pmQuote from: BillyStubbsTears on April 17, 2024, 06:48:24 pmSaturday isn't a mathematical "must win" game, but in practice it's going to be very difficult for us to make 7th place if we don't win.If we DO win this is the very worst the table could look from 5th down5th Crewe 73 - 1 game left6th Crawley 69 - 1 game left 7th Barrow 68 - 2 games left8th Walsall 68 - 1 game left9th Donny 67 - 2 games leftLooking at the odds against Crewe, Crawley and Walsall all winning, it looks like being about 17/1 against the chances of the table looking that bad (assuming we win).The very BEST it could be is:5th Crewe 70 - 1 game left6th Barrow 68 - 2 games left7th Donny 67 - 2 games left8th Crawley 66 - 1 game left 9th Walsall 65 - 1 game leftAgain, assuming we win, the odds against the table looking that good are about 14/1.Those are the two extremes. The likelihood is it'd be somewhere in between. But the take-home is that even the very worst case scenario still leaves us in a decent position if we win. With the best case, we'd need only one more win to guarantee 7th place and looking at the fixtures, we might even make 5th.Now look at the best and worst outcomes if we only draw.Worst.5th Crewe 73 - 1 game left6th Barrow 69 - 2 games left7th Crawley 69 - 1 game left8th Walsall 68 - 1 game left9th Donny 65 - 2 games leftBest5th Crewe 70 - 1 game left6th Barrow 69 - 2 games left 7th Crawley 66 - 1 game left 8th Donny 65 - 2 games left9th Walsall 65 - 1 game leftSame odds on those outcomes. Take home is that if we draw, the worst case scenario is that we are almost out of the running, and even the best case still looks far from a shoo in with the issue going down to the final match.The difference between winning and drawing on Saturday is absolutely enormous. Sing your hearts out. Anyone leaving at 5pm able to talk hasn't performed. Very good billy, Interesting to look at all that. I don’t think we’d almost be out the running though if we drew and the worst case. We’d just have to beat Colchester, then go into Saturday only a point off If, God forbid, we do draw on Saturday and the others all win, we'd almost certainly have to win both our last two games to have any chance. Assuming we were evens for both of those, that's a 25% outcome.Then we'd need two of the following to occur.1) Walsall not win their last match, or win it but we top them on GD.2) Crawley not to win their last match.3) Barrow not to get more than a point from their last 2 games (bearing in mind their GD).None of those are impossible outcomes, but I'd guess the overall effect would be to leave us with maybe a realistic 5-10% chance of us making it.That's not out of the running, but it is very close to it.That's a purely dispassionate estimate of how hard the task would be in those circumstances. Anyway. Let's hope it doesn't come to that.
Quote from: BillyStubbsTears on April 17, 2024, 06:48:24 pmSaturday isn't a mathematical "must win" game, but in practice it's going to be very difficult for us to make 7th place if we don't win.If we DO win this is the very worst the table could look from 5th down5th Crewe 73 - 1 game left6th Crawley 69 - 1 game left 7th Barrow 68 - 2 games left8th Walsall 68 - 1 game left9th Donny 67 - 2 games leftLooking at the odds against Crewe, Crawley and Walsall all winning, it looks like being about 17/1 against the chances of the table looking that bad (assuming we win).The very BEST it could be is:5th Crewe 70 - 1 game left6th Barrow 68 - 2 games left7th Donny 67 - 2 games left8th Crawley 66 - 1 game left 9th Walsall 65 - 1 game leftAgain, assuming we win, the odds against the table looking that good are about 14/1.Those are the two extremes. The likelihood is it'd be somewhere in between. But the take-home is that even the very worst case scenario still leaves us in a decent position if we win. With the best case, we'd need only one more win to guarantee 7th place and looking at the fixtures, we might even make 5th.Now look at the best and worst outcomes if we only draw.Worst.5th Crewe 73 - 1 game left6th Barrow 69 - 2 games left7th Crawley 69 - 1 game left8th Walsall 68 - 1 game left9th Donny 65 - 2 games leftBest5th Crewe 70 - 1 game left6th Barrow 69 - 2 games left 7th Crawley 66 - 1 game left 8th Donny 65 - 2 games left9th Walsall 65 - 1 game leftSame odds on those outcomes. Take home is that if we draw, the worst case scenario is that we are almost out of the running, and even the best case still looks far from a shoo in with the issue going down to the final match.The difference between winning and drawing on Saturday is absolutely enormous. Sing your hearts out. Anyone leaving at 5pm able to talk hasn't performed. Very good billy, Interesting to look at all that. I don’t think we’d almost be out the running though if we drew and the worst case. We’d just have to beat Colchester, then go into Saturday only a point off
Saturday isn't a mathematical "must win" game, but in practice it's going to be very difficult for us to make 7th place if we don't win.If we DO win this is the very worst the table could look from 5th down5th Crewe 73 - 1 game left6th Crawley 69 - 1 game left 7th Barrow 68 - 2 games left8th Walsall 68 - 1 game left9th Donny 67 - 2 games leftLooking at the odds against Crewe, Crawley and Walsall all winning, it looks like being about 17/1 against the chances of the table looking that bad (assuming we win).The very BEST it could be is:5th Crewe 70 - 1 game left6th Barrow 68 - 2 games left7th Donny 67 - 2 games left8th Crawley 66 - 1 game left 9th Walsall 65 - 1 game leftAgain, assuming we win, the odds against the table looking that good are about 14/1.Those are the two extremes. The likelihood is it'd be somewhere in between. But the take-home is that even the very worst case scenario still leaves us in a decent position if we win. With the best case, we'd need only one more win to guarantee 7th place and looking at the fixtures, we might even make 5th.Now look at the best and worst outcomes if we only draw.Worst.5th Crewe 73 - 1 game left6th Barrow 69 - 2 games left7th Crawley 69 - 1 game left8th Walsall 68 - 1 game left9th Donny 65 - 2 games leftBest5th Crewe 70 - 1 game left6th Barrow 69 - 2 games left 7th Crawley 66 - 1 game left 8th Donny 65 - 2 games left9th Walsall 65 - 1 game leftSame odds on those outcomes. Take home is that if we draw, the worst case scenario is that we are almost out of the running, and even the best case still looks far from a shoo in with the issue going down to the final match.The difference between winning and drawing on Saturday is absolutely enormous. Sing your hearts out. Anyone leaving at 5pm able to talk hasn't performed.
Quote from: BillyStubbsTears on April 18, 2024, 01:08:24 amIndividual events are impossible to predict.The probability of groups of events occuring are relatively easy to predict. But many people don't understand what probability is.Probability!What was the probability of us winning 8 in a row, what was the probability of us starting the season with 2 points from 7 games, what was the probability of each of our rivals losing last weekend. I think probability has f**ked this season off
Quote from: BillyStubbsTears on April 18, 2024, 01:08:24 amIndividual events are impossible to predict.The probability of groups of events occuring are relatively easy to predict. But many people don't understand what probability is.The fact that you have won 8 games in a row, in its self, has no impact on winning the 9th. It’s an individual stand alone event. There is plenty of luck involved in football and you need a tremendous amount to win 8 in a row however well we have played. Just hope there is no catastrophic miscarriage of justice that halts this run to balance out the decent fortune we have had.
Quote from: dickos1 on April 18, 2024, 08:09:12 amQuote from: BillyStubbsTears on April 18, 2024, 01:08:24 amIndividual events are impossible to predict.The probability of groups of events occuring are relatively easy to predict. But many people don't understand what probability is.Probability!What was the probability of us winning 8 in a row, what was the probability of us starting the season with 2 points from 7 games, what was the probability of each of our rivals losing last weekend. I think probability has f**ked this season off PS.You're demonstrating exactly what I mean about people not understanding probability.Just because rare things do sometimes happen, that doesn't mean probability doesn't operate.Unusual things DO happen. Just not very often.When they happen and they go in your favour, revel in it. It won't come along many times in your life.
Quote from: GazLaz on April 18, 2024, 09:55:40 amQuote from: BillyStubbsTears on April 18, 2024, 01:08:24 amIndividual events are impossible to predict.The probability of groups of events occuring are relatively easy to predict. But many people don't understand what probability is.The fact that you have won 8 games in a row, in its self, has no impact on winning the 9th. It’s an individual stand alone event. There is plenty of luck involved in football and you need a tremendous amount to win 8 in a row however well we have played. Just hope there is no catastrophic miscarriage of justice that halts this run to balance out the decent fortune we have had. This isn't the probability of tossing coins and getting heads or tails. The probability of a team winning another game when they are on a good run is quite obviously higher than if they are on a bad run. It impacts our players morale, level of support in the stands etc. But most importantly when a team is on a good run it effects the other team's morale. The impact of playing against a team that's won 8 in a row will naturally play on our opponents minds.
Quote from: BillyStubbsTears on April 18, 2024, 10:27:10 amQuote from: dickos1 on April 18, 2024, 08:09:12 amQuote from: BillyStubbsTears on April 18, 2024, 01:08:24 amIndividual events are impossible to predict.The probability of groups of events occuring are relatively easy to predict. But many people don't understand what probability is.Probability!What was the probability of us winning 8 in a row, what was the probability of us starting the season with 2 points from 7 games, what was the probability of each of our rivals losing last weekend. I think probability has f**ked this season off PS.You're demonstrating exactly what I mean about people not understanding probability.Just because rare things do sometimes happen, that doesn't mean probability doesn't operate.Unusual things DO happen. Just not very often.When they happen and they go in your favour, revel in it. It won't come along many times in your life.Based on probability, before the run of 8 wins, I'm assuming forecasting 8 wins was almost zero.What about 9 and then 10 and I guess the probability is that we'll lose one of these ?
My best case scenario for Saturday isWin for Wrexham away at CreweWin for Sutton at home to CrawleyWin for Bradford awayat WalsallWin for Doncaster at home to Barrow Then 5th Crewe. 70pts with 1 game left 6th.Barrow. 68pts with 2 games left 7th Doncaster 67 pts with 2 games left 8th Crawley. 66 pts with 1 game left 9th Walsall. 65 pts. with 1 game leftThen a win on Tuesday against Colchester means last game is irrelevant. Probability of us winning 10 on the trot is unlikely and for the results to go for us as above is unlikely but not impossible
Fantastic and fascinating stuff Bill. Beautifully filling the void and deflecting the tensions building before 3pm Saturday. Cheers
TLT isn't such a good keeper that he'd make that save against Wrexham more that once in 20. No keeper at this level is. Maybe he is. He is young and hasn't had chance to really prove himself. Can't even use how he played at Stevenage as a bench mark as so few games, the coaching he has had since both at Hull and Rovers. Also, he made an almost identical save to the Wrexham one the following match. On the balance of probability you may well be right, but what if these are the early steps of a future long term French international keeper. The possibilities are somewhere on that continuum. One game at a time and let's see where it takes us. All the club (and even we the fans) can do is control the controlables. The team have been controlling what they can control the controllables. What we as fans can control is offering as much support as we can both online and in real life. It seems to me we have done exactly that. Certain games it has felt like the fans were very much the 12th man, encouraging, being vocal, willing them on. I'm sure the players have felt it and long may the positivity in the club continue. I honestly believe we can do this although we will be put through the wringer I suspect. Also, reaching the playoffs is only the first step. Get behind the lads however you can. That will be different for each of us, but that is where we are at. Come on Donny!