Question - a hypothetical situation in the US?

[BobG]

Afternoon chaps

This Trump dossier business is fascinating on soo many levels. One of those levels is: what would happen if by some chance, or mischance, Trump was either impeached, persuaded or blackmailed and could not then swear the oath next week?

Pence could not become President in his place as he wouldn't be holding office as VP on Inauguration Day. Trump clearly couldn't be sworn in. Obama couldn't stay in power as there is a legal limit of 8 years and he would be beyond that.

The likely answer is that the third man (lol), the Senate Majority leader (or is it the House?) would assume temporary power. But then what? There could be no prospect of a Democrat taking over. And none either of Trump or Pence. So what happens?

A new election? That would be the first time the US had ever held an election 'out of time'. It would lead to enormous strife, argument, infighting and general mayhem. Just consider - who might stand to benefit from that? Yes. I'm just wondering.... If that alleged video appears around next Wednesday or Thursday, me? I'd know for sure that malign hands are at work.

That guy in Red Square is a downright genius in his own way.

Cheers

BobG

[i_ateallthepies]

He's too damn clever for the bunch of half wits that represent the political elite in the West these days Bob.

[BobG]

Maybe, Pies. I can't imagine the Founding Fathers ever anticipated the situation. It would wreak havoc that's for sure.

Apropos that dossier, can you imagine any security agency putting it front of the President and the House and Senate Majority and Minority leaders without it having substantial credibility if nothing more? No. I can't either. Especially as they must have known the reaction it would provoke from you know who. That dossier may be untrue, but it definitely has credibility written all over it. Score 1 for the other team whichever way this goes now.

Bob

[RedJ]

The Speaker of the House is the third in command so to speak, I believe.

[BobG]

Thanks Red. I couldn't remember if it was House or Senate. Doesn't clarify what the process thereafter would be though. There would be no president to swear in after Obama steps down and no vice president either. Can the Speaker run the country for 4 years? I dont know but I doubt it. result? Massive confusion, eyes of all the other balls in the world and the biggest impasse in a thousand years. Lovely.

I really hope it doesn't happen but there's a part of me would love to see it just because it would be so heart stoppingly chaotic and such a world changing event.

BobG

[Glyn_Wigley]

If a winning Presidential candidate dies or becomes incapacitated between the counting of electoral votes in Congress and the inauguration, the Vice President elect will become President, according to Section 3 of the 20th Amendment.

https://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/print_friendly.html?page=faq_content.html#pefails2qualify

Basically, at this stage, even though Trump hasn't been inaugurated as president he has still been elected President by the College of Electors the public voted for so has a legal status.

[BobG]

Ok. Many thanks Glyn. But what happens if Trump resigns, is impeached or otherwise prevented from swearing the oath? Is the implication that Pence would stup up?

Bob

[Glyn_Wigley]

As I read it, the same applies for whatever reason Trump isn't inaugurated. Presumably the same legal status that Trump now has as President-Elect also extends to Pence as Vie President-Elect.

[RedJ]

Thanks Red. I couldn't remember if it was House or Senate. Doesn't clarify what the process thereafter would be though. There would be no president to swear in after Obama steps down and no vice president either. Can the Speaker run the country for 4 years? I dont know but I doubt it. result? Massive confusion, eyes of all the other balls in the world and the biggest impasse in a thousand years. Lovely.

I really hope it doesn't happen but there's a part of me would love to see it just because it would be so heart stoppingly chaotic and such a world changing event.

BobG

Perhaps not (though looks as though the question has largely been answered by Glyn) but he could run the country for long enough for a solution to be found, or rather, he'd have to.

Though it looks as though that wouldn't be necessary anyway, as Glyn has pointed out.

[BobG]

It's possible that would be the answer Glyn - but it wouldn't half open up a can of worms. Pence wasn't elected President. As VP, if he were to be inaugurated, his role would be to become President if the Pres. is unable to discharge his duties. As a private citizen, which is what he is legally speaking right now, I bet the Democrats would blow a fuse if he were appointed straight to the presidency. An unelected president with no legal status at all? Hmm... Can't you just see the lawyers rubbing their lips......

Bob

[Glyn_Wigley]

Being unelected didn't stop Gerald Ford becoming President!

[BobG]

No. Different situatino altogether Glyn. Gerlad Ford was unagurated and was VP to a properly appointed preseidne who got removed from office. All very right and proper. In this situation the putative president has not been inaugurated. Therefore Pence is not VP.  Therefore he can't step in for an elected president. Obama steps down as planned, Trump is preventyed from swearing the oath, and Pence is not allowed to swear it as he is not replacing a sitting president.

Answer, as said earlier, is the leader of the House. But how long can he act for? And how do they find another president? The only options seem to be hold another election; to have Congress appoint somebody (but how?!) or to bend the rules and appoint Pence anyway.

Whichever, it would cause ana lmost ever lasting and total melt down in US politics, policy, administration and influence. Wonder who might weclcome that? Still. It won't happen.

Bob