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Problem is Glyn, the number of infected people requiring hospital admission hasn't actually fallen that much. Pre-vaccination rollout, there was a very steady rate - for every 1000 new positive tests, 70 people ended up in hospital. Now for every 1000 new tests, about 30 people are ending up in hospital.Since the new positive test numbers are already well up above 30,000 a day, it's pretty well baked in that new hospital admissions will hit 1000 per day in the next week or so. What matters then is how much the spread of new cases continues to increase. Personally I'm baffled at the official line being to expect a peak between 1000-2000 hospitalisations per day, when we have been told to expect new cases per day to hit at least 100,000. Unless there is something dramatic happens very soon to break the link between new cases and new hospital admissions, 100k case per day maps across to something approaching 3000 hospital admissions per day. Which we only exceeded briefly at the height of the first and second waves.
Quote from: Nudga on July 15, 2021, 10:40:19 amQuote from: Glyn_Wigley on July 15, 2021, 10:08:22 amQuote from: Draytonian III on July 15, 2021, 07:56:31 amSomeone I know won’t have the jab “because Covid doesn’t exist, it’s all a massive fraud “ which is strange because two of his cricket club mates have got it and fixtures have had to be cancelled because of it.The sooner he cops a dose of it, the better. He might learn something.f**kin idiot!!A customer of mine had his 1st jab 13 weeks ago and he suffered pericarditis and a heart attack.38 years old and he's f**ked. A lady I know has got blood clots in three of her fingers. And another lady who I'll be doing a job for in 3 weeks had short term paralysis from the waist down.This is why a lot of people, including myself are hesitant. f**king hell Nudga, you are a magnet for these problems. No-one else I know has ever known anyone who had these life-changing reactions to the virus, but you have a list as long as your arm. You must be due a change of luck sometime soon.
Quote from: Glyn_Wigley on July 15, 2021, 10:08:22 amQuote from: Draytonian III on July 15, 2021, 07:56:31 amSomeone I know won’t have the jab “because Covid doesn’t exist, it’s all a massive fraud “ which is strange because two of his cricket club mates have got it and fixtures have had to be cancelled because of it.The sooner he cops a dose of it, the better. He might learn something.f**kin idiot!!A customer of mine had his 1st jab 13 weeks ago and he suffered pericarditis and a heart attack.38 years old and he's f**ked. A lady I know has got blood clots in three of her fingers. And another lady who I'll be doing a job for in 3 weeks had short term paralysis from the waist down.This is why a lot of people, including myself are hesitant.
Quote from: Draytonian III on July 15, 2021, 07:56:31 amSomeone I know won’t have the jab “because Covid doesn’t exist, it’s all a massive fraud “ which is strange because two of his cricket club mates have got it and fixtures have had to be cancelled because of it.The sooner he cops a dose of it, the better. He might learn something.
Someone I know won’t have the jab “because Covid doesn’t exist, it’s all a massive fraud “ which is strange because two of his cricket club mates have got it and fixtures have had to be cancelled because of it.
Quote from: BillyStubbsTears on July 15, 2021, 12:28:51 pmQuote from: Nudga on July 15, 2021, 10:40:19 amQuote from: Glyn_Wigley on July 15, 2021, 10:08:22 amQuote from: Draytonian III on July 15, 2021, 07:56:31 amSomeone I know won’t have the jab “because Covid doesn’t exist, it’s all a massive fraud “ which is strange because two of his cricket club mates have got it and fixtures have had to be cancelled because of it.The sooner he cops a dose of it, the better. He might learn something.f**kin idiot!!A customer of mine had his 1st jab 13 weeks ago and he suffered pericarditis and a heart attack.38 years old and he's f**ked. A lady I know has got blood clots in three of her fingers. And another lady who I'll be doing a job for in 3 weeks had short term paralysis from the waist down.This is why a lot of people, including myself are hesitant. f**king hell Nudga, you are a magnet for these problems. No-one else I know has ever known anyone who had these life-changing reactions to the virus, but you have a list as long as your arm. You must be due a change of luck sometime soon. So are you calling me a liar?Where is your outrage at Wigleys comment?
A friend of mine works at Chesterfield Royal and whilst admissions are increasing, she says there's more younger people being kept in for precautionary reasons because they have capacity. She says there's more turnover of patients in this wave. That's not saying some people are getting really ill but I guess we have to be careful with the statistics. The guy from the Zoe app says the data he gets which is ahead of the PHE stats suggests the infections may now we plateauing, although there are of course some regional variations. Cautious optimism seems to be the watchword.
Quote from: DonnyBazR0ver on July 15, 2021, 01:13:40 pmA friend of mine works at Chesterfield Royal and whilst admissions are increasing, she says there's more younger people being kept in for precautionary reasons because they have capacity. She says there's more turnover of patients in this wave. That's not saying some people are getting really ill but I guess we have to be careful with the statistics. The guy from the Zoe app says the data he gets which is ahead of the PHE stats suggests the infections may now we plateauing, although there are of course some regional variations. Cautious optimism seems to be the watchword. I hadn't seen that comment from Tim Spector but it's great news if true. There's slight hints of a reduction in the rate of increase of new infections from the official PHE data. But of course we are about to give transmission a massive boost next Monday.
Quote from: dickos1 on July 15, 2021, 11:08:28 amBut there’s 60 million or so been vaccinated, If you were worried about risk rates like this you’d never leave the house Eh?? Never the leave the house? No, just not having the vaccine.Imagine if I'd said to one you guys that I hope you suffer a blood clot on the brain, I'd be f**kin lynched on here and probably banned.BST would tell me how morally corrupt I am. I've been working non stop through out this, I've heard plenty of people say they've tested positive without so much as a runny nose and a bit of a temperature. Sounds like it's you who's scared to go out until everyone is vaxxed up.
But there’s 60 million or so been vaccinated, If you were worried about risk rates like this you’d never leave the house
DBR/Glyn (and Nudga if you are still reading)The graph below is the scary one for me. It shows that there has been a constant link between hospitalisations and deaths right the way through this epidemic. Including in the current wave, after vaccinations.But here's the scary thing. To make those two sets of data lay on top of each other, I've not been consistent with the vertical axes. The right hand one (deaths) increases by a lot more than the left hand one (hospital cases). (By which I mean there are 9 doublings on the right hand axis and only 6 doublings on the left hand one.)What this is saying is that right through the epidemic, before vaccinations or not, if you were admitted to hospital with COVID at a low point in the outbreak, you had a 1-in-16 chance of dying. Whereas if you went in at the very height of the epidemic, you had a 1-in-3 or 4 chance of dying. And there is no evidence yet that the vaccinations have had ANY effect on those relationships. Basically, what seems to be happening is that when the hospitals get overloaded, the quality of care they can give falls off a cliff. And we are running a serious risk of overloading them once again.
Quote from: Nudga on July 15, 2021, 11:17:27 amQuote from: dickos1 on July 15, 2021, 11:08:28 amBut there’s 60 million or so been vaccinated, If you were worried about risk rates like this you’d never leave the house Eh?? Never the leave the house? No, just not having the vaccine.Imagine if I'd said to one you guys that I hope you suffer a blood clot on the brain, I'd be f**kin lynched on here and probably banned.BST would tell me how morally corrupt I am. I've been working non stop through out this, I've heard plenty of people say they've tested positive without so much as a runny nose and a bit of a temperature. Sounds like it's you who's scared to go out until everyone is vaxxed up. I’ve also worked everyday throughout cocker.Yes some people get mild symptoms, there’s thousands that get serious symptoms what’s hard to understand about that?
Quote from: BillyStubbsTears on July 15, 2021, 01:20:37 pmDBR/Glyn (and Nudga if you are still reading)The graph below is the scary one for me. It shows that there has been a constant link between hospitalisations and deaths right the way through this epidemic. Including in the current wave, after vaccinations.But here's the scary thing. To make those two sets of data lay on top of each other, I've not been consistent with the vertical axes. The right hand one (deaths) increases by a lot more than the left hand one (hospital cases). (By which I mean there are 9 doublings on the right hand axis and only 6 doublings on the left hand one.)What this is saying is that right through the epidemic, before vaccinations or not, if you were admitted to hospital with COVID at a low point in the outbreak, you had a 1-in-16 chance of dying. Whereas if you went in at the very height of the epidemic, you had a 1-in-3 or 4 chance of dying. And there is no evidence yet that the vaccinations have had ANY effect on those relationships. Basically, what seems to be happening is that when the hospitals get overloaded, the quality of care they can give falls off a cliff. And we are running a serious risk of overloading them once again.As has been mentioned in this thread earlier, the majority of these cases are the younger people who haven’t been vaccinated and who are a lot less likely to need hospitalisation. So the trend from earlier waves won’t be relevant in this one.
Quote from: dickos1 on July 15, 2021, 07:32:34 pmQuote from: Nudga on July 15, 2021, 11:17:27 amQuote from: dickos1 on July 15, 2021, 11:08:28 amBut there’s 60 million or so been vaccinated, If you were worried about risk rates like this you’d never leave the house Eh?? Never the leave the house? No, just not having the vaccine.Imagine if I'd said to one you guys that I hope you suffer a blood clot on the brain, I'd be f**kin lynched on here and probably banned.BST would tell me how morally corrupt I am. I've been working non stop through out this, I've heard plenty of people say they've tested positive without so much as a runny nose and a bit of a temperature. Sounds like it's you who's scared to go out until everyone is vaxxed up. I’ve also worked everyday throughout cocker.Yes some people get mild symptoms, there’s thousands that get serious symptoms what’s hard to understand about that? I'll reword that for you, Cocker. Yes there's thousands of people who get mild symptoms and some that get serious symptoms what’s hard to understand about that?
Nudga clearly hasn't had it. I did it was grim, properly grim. Nothing worse than struggling for breath walking around your house.But I don't think we need another lockdown, the severe illness is much less of an issue now than it was.
Weekly update from Dr Rupert Suckling - Doncaster Council Director of Public Health:"Our rates of COVID infection are the highest they have been in the entire pandemic for the period of 4-10 July at a rate of 605.7 cases per 100,000. We have 15 residents in hospital, two of which are in intensive care. Half of the people in hospital are under 50 and half are over 50. Therefore it shows that although the vaccination programme has weakened the link between infection hospitalisation and death it’s not broken completely."I expect the attendance will be a bit thin for the opening game, that's if we are even allowed to attend.
Quote from: i_ateallthepies on July 16, 2021, 04:59:45 pmWeekly update from Dr Rupert Suckling - Doncaster Council Director of Public Health:"Our rates of COVID infection are the highest they have been in the entire pandemic for the period of 4-10 July at a rate of 605.7 cases per 100,000. We have 15 residents in hospital, two of which are in intensive care. Half of the people in hospital are under 50 and half are over 50. Therefore it shows that although the vaccination programme has weakened the link between infection hospitalisation and death it’s not broken completely."I expect the attendance will be a bit thin for the opening game, that's if we are even allowed to attend.So we’ve 7 or 8 people in hospital over 50 due to covid….Go back to last year and we had hundreds,
Weekly update from Dr Rupert Suckling - Doncaster Council Director of Public Health:"Our rates of COVID infection are the highest they have been in the entire pandemic for the period of 4-10 July at a rate of 605.7 cases per 100,000. We have 15 residents in hospital, two of which are in intensive care. Half of the people in hospital are under 50 and half are over 50. Therefore it shows that although the vaccination programme has weakened the link between infection hospitalisation and death it’s not broken completely."I expect the attendance will be a bit thin for the opening game, that's if we are even allowed to attend.