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Quote from: drfchound on July 22, 2021, 05:28:39 pmQuote from: BillyStubbsTears on July 22, 2021, 05:21:13 pmQuote from: bpoolrover on July 22, 2021, 04:14:09 pmStrange numbers today 39k cases seems lower than expected, 84 deaths unfortunately If that 39k is the start of a sustained drop in the rate of increase in new cases that would be absolutely brilliant news. Too early to tell.My guess is it is down to kids' holidays so fewer school contacts. But that is likely to be at least balanced out by the relaxation of rules for everyone else. Hope I'm wrong and the new case number really do start falling.Deaths will inevitably keep on rising for a while even so because on average, those reported as dying today caught the virus a couple or three weeks ago. So the next 2-3 weeks of rises in deaths is baked in. It'll top out at at least 100 per day early next month, even if cases really have peaked.BST, do you think that the government might have picked 19th July BECAUSE of the fewer school contacts due to school holidays starting?Yes of course they have. But that is one and only one parameter. In itself, in terms of the role of kids in spreading the virus, choosing that date is optimal. Whether that date is optimal for the overall picture of trying to minimise the threat of this wave is very, very unlikely. But obviously I very much hope it is.
Quote from: BillyStubbsTears on July 22, 2021, 05:21:13 pmQuote from: bpoolrover on July 22, 2021, 04:14:09 pmStrange numbers today 39k cases seems lower than expected, 84 deaths unfortunately If that 39k is the start of a sustained drop in the rate of increase in new cases that would be absolutely brilliant news. Too early to tell.My guess is it is down to kids' holidays so fewer school contacts. But that is likely to be at least balanced out by the relaxation of rules for everyone else. Hope I'm wrong and the new case number really do start falling.Deaths will inevitably keep on rising for a while even so because on average, those reported as dying today caught the virus a couple or three weeks ago. So the next 2-3 weeks of rises in deaths is baked in. It'll top out at at least 100 per day early next month, even if cases really have peaked.BST, do you think that the government might have picked 19th July BECAUSE of the fewer school contacts due to school holidays starting?
Quote from: bpoolrover on July 22, 2021, 04:14:09 pmStrange numbers today 39k cases seems lower than expected, 84 deaths unfortunately If that 39k is the start of a sustained drop in the rate of increase in new cases that would be absolutely brilliant news. Too early to tell.My guess is it is down to kids' holidays so fewer school contacts. But that is likely to be at least balanced out by the relaxation of rules for everyone else. Hope I'm wrong and the new case number really do start falling.Deaths will inevitably keep on rising for a while even so because on average, those reported as dying today caught the virus a couple or three weeks ago. So the next 2-3 weeks of rises in deaths is baked in. It'll top out at at least 100 per day early next month, even if cases really have peaked.
Strange numbers today 39k cases seems lower than expected, 84 deaths unfortunately
Quote from: drfchound on July 22, 2021, 05:26:28 pmAlbie, we read every day about how the uk is viewed by someone not living here, but thanks for the link.On “freedom day”, surely “responsibility day” would be a better way of describing 19th July.But not from someone with the standing of Professor Hanage, Hound!We know personal responsibility cannot work, because it only takes a small proportion to opt out to derail the whole strategy......go to Tesco to see that for yourself.It is just a con trick, to shift the blame from government for their lack of effective planning.There is a bigger issue pushing through, because the threshold needed to reach HI is further away with more infections circulating. https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-why-hasnt-herd-immunity-stopped-covidThe increased transmissability of Delta, and the vulnerability of about 30% of the UK population, means we might need to do more, faster, to get to infection decline.That also assumes no new breakout variant, which is encouraged by the current conditions.
Albie, we read every day about how the uk is viewed by someone not living here, but thanks for the link.On “freedom day”, surely “responsibility day” would be a better way of describing 19th July.
Quote from: no eyed deer on July 22, 2021, 07:30:23 amHow many on here a thick enough to still be using the NHS App. In a time when most adults are double vaccinated, the country is going to grind to a halt.Let's have a bit a WW2 spirit and grow some balls Far to many are pointing fingers.. if you want to wear mask , vaccinate and so on good, but dont class others as irresponsible. Some what to keep what little liberties they have left.Why anyone would want an app that can snoop on you is beyond me. I don't do smart phones, but i have my vaccination certificate and that should be good enough. Surely it's better that more people get covid now if they're vaccinated so we can get it out of the way before winter. My life is passing me by here, there's always an element of risk involved in anything you do
How many on here a thick enough to still be using the NHS App. In a time when most adults are double vaccinated, the country is going to grind to a halt.Let's have a bit a WW2 spirit and grow some balls Far to many are pointing fingers.. if you want to wear mask , vaccinate and so on good, but dont class others as irresponsible. Some what to keep what little liberties they have left.
This WW2 spirit. Did it involve having bonfire parties that showed the Luftwaffe where built up areas were?
America is in some serious trouble. How the f**k do you deal with getting the economy back to normal when half of half of the population refuses to get vaccinated?It's bad enough here where we only half 5-8% of the population who are flat-earther vaccine rejecters. Over there it will be carnage if they follow our lead.
It seems he was playing the man again, Hound.Apart from he NEVER does that.
Don't forget there's other variables too. Schools were mentioned which has been a theme in this so caller wave. Scotland has receding cases now where schools finished 3 weeks ago. Universities also will now be fully closed to most students so it wouldn't be a surprise to see a drop shortly with that in mind. It was part of the reason some scientists agreed now is a good time to push for reopening.
BFYP"So called wave"?Hound. Agreed. And if it doesn't work out?
Quote from: BillyStubbsTears on July 22, 2021, 10:57:35 pmBFYP"So called wave"?Hound. Agreed. And if it doesn't work out?Hindsight will tell us.
BFYP"So called wave"?Hound. Agreed. And if it doesn't work out?
11 month old baby tests positivehttps://twitter.com/bailey_jodie/status/1418292048923344900
Quote from: belton rover on July 22, 2021, 09:23:47 pmIt seems he was playing the man again, Hound.Apart from he NEVER does that.Looking at your recent posts you seem to the one antagonising things.
They’re never going to be certain it’s going to work out, doing it in September/October would be just as risky if not more so.Which is why there’s so much debate amongst scientists, there’s not right or wrong answer however much people try and say there is there just isn’t.The government have to make the tough decisions and live by them