Labour gain Bessecarr

[The Red Baron]

It's negative, but there's no option from here. Labour have to scare people into not indulging themselves. If you are left-ish leaning, you have no option but to vote Lab in 15, even if you don't do it out of conviction. The best alternative will be more of what we've had since 2010. The worst would be an unbridled right-wing Govt.

Maybe it is an unfortunate choice of phrase, but I don't think scare tactics work with voters any longer. The three Westminster parties have tried to scare the Bejasus out of the Scots by claiming that they will be unable to keep the pound, that jobs will be lost, their pensions will be worthless etc and the result has been a steady increase in the Yes vote (at least according to the polls).

Similarly attempts to scare people into believing that UKIP are just the BNP in suits appear to have backfired.

If Labour are going to win in 2015 they have to produce a more positive message, stop focusing on symptoms rather than problems (the "cost of living crisis" being a prime example of this) and also stop chasing every passing bandwagon. Then people might be prepared to ignore the impression that Ed Miliband is a Leeds-supporting geek who can't eat a bacon butty without gagging on it.

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB

1) As I said earlier this week, Oppositions NEVER win elections. Govts lose them and Oppositions' tactics are ALWAYS negative.

2) I'm genuinely fascinated by the attacks on Miliband. He is apparently a geek who can't function in the real world, whilst simultaneously being a nasty, devious, fratricidal extreme left wing maniac who will destroy the country.

A bit inconsistent. Seems to me like people deciding they don't like Miliband, then picking a suitable reason afterwards.

[Savvy]

I suspect many didn't vote UKIP because with the first past the post system life is very difficult for them. In fact it's downright unfair. I've done an analysis of the results and this is what I've found:

Labour votes - 26,552
UKIP votes-     22,096

Labour seats in the council - 48
UKIP seats in the council -     1

This is not democracy. Labour get 20% more votes than UKIP but get 48 times as many seats (4,700% more). This is plainly ridiculous. Never mind. Next time even with first past the post, UKIP will make substantial gains. One day they will be the majority party and can sort Doncaster out good and proper instead of the useless Labour councillors we've had to put up with for far too long.

Agreed! Thanks for the statistic work was going to do something similiar with the data from here;

http://www.doncaster.gov.uk/sections/councilanddemocracy/votingelectionsanddemocracy/ElectionResults/Results/Local_Elections_2014.aspx

[IC1967]

You're welcome.

[Savvy]

Have you done proportion of votes cast?

[IC1967]

No.

[The Red Baron]

TRB

1) As I said earlier this week, Oppositions NEVER win elections. Govts lose them and Oppositions' tactics are ALWAYS negative.

2) I'm genuinely fascinated by the attacks on Miliband. He is apparently a geek who can't function in the real world, whilst simultaneously being a nasty, devious, fratricidal extreme left wing maniac who will destroy the country.

A bit inconsistent. Seems to me like people deciding they don't like Miliband, then picking a suitable reason afterwards.

BST

1. Maybe, but the Tories failed to capitalise on Labour's unpopularity at the last election and I wouldn't be surprised if Labour do the same this time around.

2. Isn't it possible that he is both? Stalin probably thought Trotsky was a geek, but that didn't stop him from having him murdered because he was "dangerous." 

The point I was trying to make was that people might ignore Miliband's geekishness if he had some policies that didn't threaten to unravel between now and election day. Though personally I can't forgive him for being a Leeds fan. 

[afro goal machine]

No.

are those statistics not available online yet ??? ;-)

[Savvy]

No.

are those statistics not available online yet ??? ;-)

http://www.doncaster.gov.uk/sections/councilanddemocracy/votingelectionsanddemocracy/ElectionResults/Results/Local_Elections_2014.aspx

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB

The Tory problem is much deeper. They have been relatively unpopular for a generation. In the last 25 years, they have hardly ever squeaked above 40% in opinion polls, managing it only in the most propitious of circumstances and never staying there for long. That is astonishing for the party that used to consider itself the natural party of Government not so long ago. So their inability to win a majority in 2010 was as much down to their long term decline as it was to tactics at the time.

Personally, I thought they played it as well as they possibly could from the start of the financial crash. Cameron initially played the statesman card ("These are dangerous times and we put party advantage to one side and stand ready to help where we can" or words to that effect.)

They then kept their heads down for 6 months.

And then came back with a devastating "should have fixed the roof while the sun shone" and "deficit denier" attack.

I'm not sure what more they could have done.

As for Miliband, maybe I could have put my point better. What I mean is that he is portrayed as someone who is a ditherer and weak, get as someone who was prepared to betray his own brother to get what he wanted. If you accept the second premise (which I don't: there was no "betrayal"; there was an election not a primogeniture process) then I fail to see how you can see him as anything other than calculatingly ruthless.

[Savvy]

No.

31.66% which means 1 in 3 throughout the borough voted UKIP, very impressive!

[BillyStubbsTears]

No.

31.66% which means 1 in 3 throughout the borough voted UKIP, very impressive!

With turnout around 30%. So about 9% of the electorate in Donny supported UKIP.

Still more than is healthy, but it puts it into better perspective.

[Savvy]

Billy, total votes cast, 69787, total votes for UKIP 22,096 which, unless my calculator is wrong works out at 31.66% Don't try manipulating these figures for your own interest because they are a fact. Everyone in the borough at the legal age had the opportunity to vote, making it statiscally speaking an independent result. Therefore there is no reason to believe that more people hadn't taken up the opportunty that the result wouldn't have been similar!

[BillyStubbsTears]

Savvy

I'm not manipulating anything. I'm stating a fact.

Local and European Elections regularly throw up occasions where smaller parties, on a roll, get a stunning level of support among those who voted. The two key issues are
1) Whether the party on a roll gets a disproportionate share of its supporters out in a small turnout.
2) Whether those votes are a "f**k all the rest of them" protest vote that won't be repeated in a more critical election.

History suggests that the answer to both is "usually yes". The Greens took 15% of the vote in the 89 Euro elections in the UK. They've not topped 1% in any of the 5 subsequent General Elections. There are plenty of other examples, not least UKIP getting 16.5% of the vote in the 2009 Euro elections and 3.1% in the General Election 12 months later.

I understand that UKIP supporters are jubilant. I don't know if you are one. If you are, you are welcome to believe that 31% of people in TLOD support UKIP and will vote UKIP in a General Election. I suspect you'll be in for a disappointment though. 

[Savvy]

Savvy

I'm not manipulating anything. I'm stating a fact.

Local and European Elections regularly throw up occasions where smaller parties, on a roll, get a stunning level of support among those who voted. The two key issues are
1) Whether the party on a roll gets a disproportionate share of its supporters out in a small turnout.
2) Whether those votes are a "f*** all the rest of them" protest vote that won't be repeated in a more critical election.

History suggests that the answer to both is "usually yes". The Greens took 15% of the vote in the 89 Euro elections in the UK. They've not topped 1% in any of the 5 subsequent General Elections. There are plenty of other examples, not least UKIP getting 16.5% of the vote in the 2009 Euro elections and 3.1% in the General Election 12 months later.

I understand that UKIP supporters are jubilant. I don't know if you are one. If you are, you are welcome to believe that 31% of people in TLOD support UKIP and will vote UKIP in a General Election. I suspect you'll be in for a disappointment though. 

Bill, I'm well aware of the circumstances that surround a protest vote, and I believe that 31% of the people of the borough WHO VOTED, choose UKIP because its a fact. No one mentioned that it would or could be repeated in the General Election, but they've as much chance of getting more as they have of not getting as many.

[IC1967]

As a UKIP supporter it really makes my piss boil that we are constantly told the reason we vote UKIP is as a protest. This is not the case. The main reason I voted UKIP is because I want to see immigration brought under control. This is the main reason most people vote UKIP.

All the other parties are quite happy to allow uncontrolled immigration from the EU. This is crazy. UKIP are the only party that will say this and this is why they are getting so much support.

It's time the major parties started to listen to the electorate. Until they do, UKIP will get stronger and stronger.

[Savvy]

Break down of the local election result by total votes cast and percentage of the overall vote:

English Democrat             1241     1.79%
Liberal Democrats            2519   3.63%
Trade Union against cuts 1556    2.24%
Labour Party                    23457     33.77%
UKIP                                 22046   31.74%
Conservatives                  8880   12.79%
Independents                  2063   2.97%
Green Party                      1259   1.81%
Doncaster first Party        1469   2.12%
Labour Co-operative        3095   4.46%
Mexboro Forgotten town  1193    1.72%
The community Group         673    0.97%

Total votes cast less spoilt papers 69,451 average turn out by ward 32%.

Good job its not a PR system eh?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Savvy.

The system is what the system is. For the record, I have stated many times that I think that a FPTP system is unacceptable in the current situation. It was OK when we had two parties winning 95% of the vote between them, as we did in the 40s, 50s and 60s. But it has been wrong now for 40 years.

BUT. It's the system that we have. What UKIP have done in Donny is to lose most matches 3-2. A football team that did that would get relegated. One that lost a few matches 4-2 and won the odd one 2-1 would have the same GD, but more points.

I'll repeat, I'm not saying I agree with the system, but that's what it is. If you don't like it, get out on the streets and campaign against it.

[Savvy]

Billy, twas nothing more than a off the cuff remark.....think you need to get out more!!!

[BillyStubbsTears]

Savvy.

Ha! I'm stuck at my desk working on a report for yet another demanding client. This banter IS my getting out at the moment.

Mind, if YOU are posting the vote share from the Mexboro Forgotten Town party at 11pm of a Sunday, I reckon you're on thin ice telling somebody else to get out more....

[Savvy]

Ha! ha!   I have to concede that point!!! Get the tele on!!! for the Euro elections!!

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

It does show up the flaws in the system. I voted no to the change proposed previously as I don't like first choice second choice etc. However first past is very outdated and needs looking at again. If UKIP keep performing it will be an issue for all parties. It will harm the tories for sure but also if labour don't capitalise - lots of evidence they're losing votes to UKIP just as much, then it's tricky for them as there is much more chance of UKIP and the tories coming together.

[Mike_F]

What UKIP have done in Donny is to lose most matches 3-2. A football team that did that would get relegated. One that lost a few matches 4-2 and won the odd one 2-1 would have the same GD, but more points.

Playing devil's advocate here as I'm steadfastly against UKIP but based on that analogy, it's like Donny Rovers coming from nowhere a few years ago and losing Premier League matches by the odd goal. No room for complacency.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Mike F

Fully agree. Which is why it pains me so that people in Donny are being played by a rich man's party, pretending to be the friend of the common man. It's a lie that has got to be faced down at every opportunity.