Viking Supporters Co-operative
Viking Chat => Viking Chat => Topic started by: BillyStubbsTears on October 17, 2021, 06:33:36 pm
-
Just incredible this run.
11 consecutive away draws, 14 of the past 16 and 15 of the past 18.
Odds against runs as bad as those are I think:
2047/1
477/1 and
264/1.
-
No need to moan. We will paste them !
-
Just incredible this run.
11 consecutive away draws, 14 of the past 16 and 15 of the past 18.
Odds against runs as bad as those are I think:
2047/1
477/1 and
264/1.
What is the record i wonder of consecutive games being drawn away or at home?
-
I'm thinking very simply on this. I suspect Dutch Uncle would be able to do a better job.
But simplistically, if there's roughly a 1 in 2000 chance of getting drawn away 11 times in a row, I think you'd expect to get a run like this from some side every 20,000 ties. There's roughly 100 sides in the league, so I guess that each side would play 200 ties before you'd expect a run like this to occur for some side or other. Say on average, each side in the league plays 4 cup ties a season. That would suggest you'd expect some club to have a run like this once in 50 years.
Like I say, I'm hazy on the maths here. Maybe every new tie starts a new series of 11 games, in which case there would be 11 times as many opportunities to get a run like this and it would happen to some club every 4-5 years or so.
Even if that latter figure is right, you'd only expect it to happen to YOUR club every 4-500 years.
-
Last season i predicted eleven consecutive Rovers matches correct as BB will verify
Inspired by dutch uncle i decided to work out the odds of that.
The fa cup draws are a binary option
But the match forecasting are a tertiary option
Yes some matches were easier to predict
But in simple maths the probability of that was 3 to the power eleven
Which is 177,147 to one
This season i cant even get one in row
Dutch uncle inspired me to