Brexit Negotiations

[BillyStubbsTears]

Tommy

I obviously didn’t make myself clear previously. There’s no contradiction.

I agree with most of Corbyn’s policies. Most, not all. I think his foreign policy approach is based on a knee-jerk anti-Americanism which means that he turns a blind eye to some very dangerous threats to us. And I think his take on the military is deeply naive (when asked what he’d do if Russia invaded a NATO member he said “I’d work to make sure it didn’t come to that”. As if everyone else is working to make sure it does come to that...) But I agree with most other policies.

But just because I agree with the policies, that doesn’t mean I think they can win an Election. I’ve always thought that Labour has to be cannier than that and appeal to a broad church.  My take was and is that if you position yourself as an out-and-out left winger, you’d better be an utterly superb politician if you want to win power. I never thought Corbyn was good enough to do that. That was what I meant about the mistakes of the 80s AND the limitations of Corbyn.

He performed much better than I expected, no question. But at the end of the day, faced with an opponent which had tipped the country into a crisis and the worst-performing PM imaginable, Labour still lost by 60 seats.

And I know that Momentum were quick to set up the meme about the historic increase in the Labour vote and how that meant that the country loved Corbyn. But that was rather economical with the truth. Yes the Labour vote went up by 3.5million. But the Tory vote went up by nearly 2.5million. Did that mean that May was a brilliant campaigner too? Both those figures had to be seen in the light of the total collapse of UKIP which was the real first-order feature of the Election, with Corbyn’s energising of younger voters being a distant second.

You want my take? If Labour can’t be significantly ahead of a Tory party as clueless and riven with splits as this one is now, I don’t see Corbyn ever becoming PM. He impressed me in his ability to attract the young vote. I didn’t expect that and it was quite something. But in doing so, he’s also hardening up support for the Tories as the anti-Corbyn vote because there are many, many people in this country who would vote for anyone if it meant keeping out someone as far to the left as Corbyn.

And, he got away with a brilliant sleight of hand this summer. Somehow, he managed to convince southern soft left-ists that he was anti-Brexit, whilst convincing Northern red-UKIPers that he was pro-Brexit. He can’t pull that one again next time. Brexit will have gone to a vote in Parliament by then. He’ll have either scuppered it or supported it. Then he has a real electoral problem.

Goes without saying that I hope I’m wrong.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Brexit will have gone to a vote innParliament by then. He have either scuppered it or supported it. Then he has a real electoral problem.

Don't be surprised if there's a three-line whip for abstention, on the basis that Labour can't support whatever the proposed deal is (obviously, because as this Government is such an omnishambles it's going to be dead easy to paint any deal they cobble together as a bad deal), but that Labour won't vote against it and risk stopping Brexit as that is the will of the people. And with one bound he is free!

[BillyStubbsTears]

Glyn

Aye, but given Corbyn’s history, why should the (predominantly anti-Brexit) PLP pay a blind bit of notice to his three line whip?

He’s spent a career claiming that conscience trumps party loyalty. He’ll get that argument back in spades if he tries the approach that you suggest.

I’ll be honest, I haven’t got a Scooby how the eventual Brexit Deal Vote will pan out. But I can’t see a huge number of MPs in the current PLP being prepared to vote for the kind of Brexit that we seem to be heading towards. So it would be a “Brave” move for Corbyn to try to use the whip.

[hoolahoop]

I would be surprised if Corbyn used the whip too, it would be personally embarrassing and would give the appearance that the " split " in the Labour Party is no nearer being resolved .
He would appear to be the villain of the piece to the majority PLP as well as and more importantly to the electorate that he needs to keep on side in any upcoming elections - he needs to take those seats currently held by Tories in areas that 1) Have a substantive Remain electorate and / or 2) in constituencies where the Tory vote was more or less finely balanced but will be heavily affected by any bad deal/ cliff edge scenario.

It is important that attacks on other Parties in Opposition stop wherever possible unless there is a direct electoral advantage in doing so . For instance why keep attacking the SNP or Lib/ Dems when they are in a position to take seats AWAY from the Tories ? It seems to me that deals can be struck and candidates withdrawn in areas where the Labour Party has no chance of a win I. E. Where they have ' trailed in ' a distant 3rd or even 4th . I know they have a principle whereby they fight EVERY and ANY seat - that to me is madness and a waste of resources. In many cases there would be an argument for the momentum army to '' assist " one of the oppo sides where a non-Tory Party is clearly in a precarious 1st place or a strong 2nd place. Obviously that probably wouldn't be needed in practice.

The 2 to 8000 " wasted " votes could then be used to topple a Tory thereby bringing down further the target needed to at least becoming the largest Party .
The electoral maths would make it almost impossible for Labour to win an outright majority currently let alone if the number of seats end up being decreased to 600 in future . An " anyone but a Tory " way of thinking and acting is the only way forward imo to bring about a future Labour Govt. However it is important that they win the economic argument and don't appear any more radical than they currently are !

[Glyn_Wigley]

Glyn

Aye, but given Corbyn’s history, why should the (predominantly anti-Brexit) PLP pay a blind bit of notice to his three line whip?

Because they'll want their constituents to re-elect them, and they'll want the Labour Party to bankroll them at a General Election. Sure there'll be a few rebels but as long as the official Labour Party line is as I've described it it puts Corbyn on the moral high ground, even more so when the post-Brexit reality bites and Labour can say 'it was nothing to do with us, we knew it was a bad deal'.

[tommy toes]

Anyone see the documentary where they followed 3 Labour MPs through the last campaign?
One of them was Kinnock mk2.
The most telling part when it became obvious at the exit poll that Labour were doing far better than expected was the look on his face. He didn't know whether to laugh or cry as the realisation dawned that the anti Corbyn PLP were stuffed.
Fact is it's Momentum who now run the party and for good or ill they, Corbyn and McDonald will design Labour policy.
Whether Momentum can keep the momentum going is anyone's guess but perhaps Corbyn fever has cooled a little, especially as he has shown he can duck and dive and be as duplicitous as the rest of em when he wants; and it might be a long time before there's another election.
My own take is that when the fall out from the disaster that is Brexit takes hold, Labour better win the next election coz if they dont the split might be terminal.
 Despite this i really hope Corbyn is given the chance to govern as there is far more good than bad in his ideas.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Glyn

I made a mistake in my earlier post. The vote in March 2019 won't be about Brexit or no-Brexit. It'll be on the deal that Davis has managed to secure.

That's the key thing. Brexit is going to happen in 2019. There will be a day when we will officially leave the EU. the question is, what's the situation thereafter?

If Corbyn is complicit in allowing a Hard Brexit deal through Parliament (which is what your approach would mean in practice) then he has a real problem with the soft-left middle-class voters who supported him this year. I suspect there'd be a haemmorrhaging of votes to the Greens and newly-enthused LD, as well as huge problem in Scotland, where Labour has been slowly dragging itself back.

If he rejects a strong Brexit and supports a very extended transistion deal where very little actually changes (which is the least-disastrous outcome for the country as far as I can see) then he's in danger of being painted as denying Brexit by the back door and pissing off the working class Red-UKIPers. It's not impossible to see Farage come riding back over the horizon to re-invigorate UKIP in those circumstances.
 

It's a problem and I don't see an easy way out. In politics, if you try to be all things to all people, you can do it for as long as you don't have to make a decision. But eventually you have to come down on one side or the other and you piss off an awful lot of people who thought you were on their side. As Clegg discovered in 2010.

[wilts rover]

Trying to guess what is going to happen in 2018 never mind 2019 is beyond Nostradamus never mind a political commentator in these times. But as for the 'Brexit deal' vote this is why the debate that is about to come up over putting the leaving date in the Repeal Bill is so important.

If the government state a date and time for when we leave the EU, thats it, thats when we leave deal or no deal. If no date is in the Bill then parliament is able to vote on whatever the deal is on offer, reject it, and tell the government to go back and negotiate a better one. And there are enough Tory 'mutineers' to want that to happen.

[SydneyRover]

Davies refuses to hand over documents that spell out the full impact of wrexit despite the parliament voting to release them.
On top of this the totally hypocritical bunch of tory eurosceptics are trying to hold a second vote, it's unbelievable (well not really)

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-davis-brexit-impact-papers-release-contempt-parliament-charge-latest-a8080991.html

[hoolahoop]

Davies refuses to hand over documents that spell out the full impact of wrexit despite the parliament voting to release them.
On top of this the totally hypocritical bunch of tory eurosceptics are trying to hold a second vote, it's unbelievable (well not really)

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-davis-brexit-impact-papers-release-contempt-parliament-charge-latest-a8080991.html

Yes apparently they can just ride a coach and horses through what was agreed with a simple amendment. That's democracy for you ....

[BillyStubbsTears]

This is extremely serious.

There is a very important point in our political system, which is that PARLIAMENT is sovereign. Not the PM. Not the Cabinet. Not Ministers. If Parliament passes a vote, Ministers are compelled to abide by it. The fact that a minister thinks that abiding by that decision might cause a problem is of no importance whatsoever.

The bizarre thing is that we were told one reason for voting Leave was to bring sovereignty back from the EU. The very people who said that arenow sticking two fingers up at the ultimate sovereign body in the country.

The black comedy continues...

[MachoMadness]

Reports in the Graun suggest we have agreed to pay the EU a net bill of £50bn-£58bn. One issue down, only took us 18 months to get there eh?

[BillyStubbsTears]

So that’s the first 3 years’ worth of £350m/week gone up in smoke...

[tommy toes]

He must hand them over. Parliament has voted and that's all there is to it.
If he was Charles 1 he'd be beheaded in the morning.

[idler]

Any MP of any persuasion that votes for their own or their party's gain as opposed to the good of the nation is guilty of treason in my eyes.

[SydneyRover]

Surely MPs defying the will of the parliament can be stopped from taking part in it?

[hoolahoop]

This is disgraceful and the appointed civil servant in charge of collating all these documents should be ordered to turn over the originalso unredacted  to the Speaker immediately . This Government is clearly incapable and unwilling to do so

Surely any decent Brexiter didn't foresee a Party barely in power riding roughshod over every Parliamentary convention in front of them ; did you foresee a one Party State ?

It's high time that the slippery fool that is Davis is brought to book and held in contempt of Parliament along with the complicit idiots in his Department.
The arrogance of this Tory Party knows no bounds and it's time that the Opposition and those on its own benches said " ENOUGH " !!

[Glyn_Wigley]

Davies refuses to hand over documents that spell out the full impact of wrexit despite the parliament voting to release them.
On top of this the totally hypocritical bunch of tory eurosceptics are trying to hold a second vote, it's unbelievable (well not really)

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-davis-brexit-impact-papers-release-contempt-parliament-charge-latest-a8080991.html

What...they didn't get the result they wanted from a vote but don't want to 'suck it up'? Disgraceful!

[Glyn_Wigley]

Jesus wept, I'm watching IDS on the news right now saying we don't owe the EU any money unless we get a trade deal we like.

[MachoMadness]

Verhofstadt today: EU expect "more on citizens' rights and much more on the Irish border question". Sounds like progress has been made on the money, but not on anything else.

[albie]

Well, the hits just keep on coming;
https://is.gd/K9cjhf

It looks more and more like a bloodless coup......I suppose the bleeding will all take place off camera, and down the years.

Given that we do not have a written constitution, the principle that parliament has the last word over the (temporary) executive is crucial.

Disregard the vote of parliament, and you have moved into autocratic mode. So much for the entire basis of governance in the UK.

The costs outlined in the Indy link are for the right to agree terms to continue to trade with the EU. Those terms will be less advantageous than full members enjoy, so we will be paying for the prospect of a poorer deal.

The thought that occurs to me is that the economic appraisel should have been available to inform the vote. All this rot under the floorboards is clearly the reason DD cannot release the redacted papers.

Lets be honest, if it showed a clean bill of health for Leave, then we would all know already. The only reason for holding back is that it there is information that will reflect badly on the government.

[RedJ]

It has to come to a point where people realise this is f**king lunacy.

[tommy toes]

This 50 billion. It's like going to buy a car and paying top whack but you've no idea what car you'll get. Could be a 1985 Lada.
Absolute madness.

[hoolahoop]

Well, the hits just keep on coming;
https://is.gd/K9cjhf

It looks more and more like a bloodless coup......I suppose the bleeding will all take place off camera, and down the years.

Given that we do not have a written constitution, the principle that parliament has the last word over the (temporary) executive is crucial.

Disregard the vote of parliament, and you have moved into autocratic mode. So much for the entire basis of governance in the UK.

The costs outlined in the Indy link are for the right to agree terms to continue to trade with the EU. Those terms will be less advantageous than full members enjoy, so we will be paying for the prospect of a poorer deal.

The thought that occurs to me is that the economic appraisel should have been available to inform the vote. All this rot under the floorboards is clearly the reason DD cannot release the redacted papers.

Lets be honest, if it showed a clean bill of health for Leave, then we would all know already. The only reason for holding back is that it there is information that will reflect badly on the government.

It's the only assumption to take out of DD's reticence to release the real price of Brexit .

[wilts rover]

Another assumption you might make Hoola is that this thorough and in depth analysis of how Brexit might affect 58 critical sectors of the British economy that Davies promised he had are not quite so thorough and in depth as he made them out to be?

But no, you can't belive the man leading our negotiations doing that can you?

[Muttley]

This 50 billion. It's like going to buy a car and paying top whack but you've no idea what car you'll get. Could be a 1985 Lada.
Absolute madness.

Actually it's more like going to buy a car and the garage saying "I'd love to sell you a car, but first you need to finish paying for the last car I sold you. Only then can we discuss a deal for a new car."

[Glyn_Wigley]

This 50 billion. It's like going to buy a car and paying top whack but you've no idea what car you'll get. Could be a 1985 Lada.
Absolute madness.

The thing is we've already bought the car. This is haggling about how little we can get away with coughing up for it.

[SydneyRover]

This 50 billion. It's like going to buy a car and paying top whack but you've no idea what car you'll get. Could be a 1985 Lada.
Absolute madness.

There is no car! it's an illusion, there never has been a car the car never existed. Wrexit is costing the UK economy 300,000,000 per week, on top of this 50 Billion (50,000,000,000) and then loss of trade, can't wait for the wrexiteers side of the story.

[hoolahoop]

This 50 billion. It's like going to buy a car and paying top whack but you've no idea what car you'll get. Could be a 1985 Lada.
Absolute madness.

There is no car! it's an illusion, there never has been a car the car never existed. Wrexit is costing the UK economy 300,000,000 per week, on top of this 50 Billion (50,000,000,000) and then loss of trade, can't wait for the wrexiteers side of the story.

I would like to think that the loss to the economy of £ 300,000,000 a week is the maximum the economy will haemorrhage but I doubt it stops there and I see little hope of finding £ 650,000,000 + a week to subsidise the loss and all that extra money for the NHS.

What a bloody mess and of course there's the final bill which will be largely hidden from the public much like a football transfer fee.

Over to you Brexiters to tell us how wonderful life will be once we are a newly formed state of Trump's  USA - you need it as you cough your way through your breakfast cereal whilst reading your Daily Mail/ Express/ Sun. A " special friend " indeed !

[BillyStubbsTears]

Well, there's another week of £350m that Boris owes us.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-42194382