Brexit Negotiations

[BillyStubbsTears]

https://mobile.twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/937728693010649088?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

No shit Sherlock?

[Filo]

Remember the Tory election slogan "Coalition of Chaos"


How that one liner has come home to roost eh?

[The Red Baron]

This morning it was widely assumed that the DUP had bought into the plan, albeit reluctantly. However it is clear they haven't. As the DUP has been pretty clear in its position, how did May think she could get away with what was being proposed?

[BillyStubbsTears]

I love this line from Downing St which is supposed to be positive.

“It’s not ONLY the Irish border that prevented agreement.”

Whoopee f**king doo. That’s alright then. I was worried that it was ONLY the fact that the Govt hasn’t got a clue what to do about Ireland that was holding stuff up. But we’ve got no f**king idea what to do about EU citizens as well. What a relief!

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB

I suspect future historians will ponder greatly over the question “how did May think?”

I’m wondering if her neurons are conversing with each other about anything.

[i_ateallthepies]

"they'd have to go along with whatever the public votes for, and no politician really trusts the electorate to do what they want them to"

David Cameron anyone?

[RedJ]

TRB

I suspect future historians will ponder greatly over the question “did May think?”

I’m wondering if her neurons are conversing with each other about anything.

Fixed.

[Glyn_Wigley]

"they'd have to go along with whatever the public votes for, and no politician really trusts the electorate to do what they want them to"

David Cameron anyone?

Cameron had the referendum for party political reasons, not because he trusted the electorate or wanted their opinion. He was just hoping the status quo would prevail.

[Donnywolf]

Someone had it right earlier. If this was a Sit com you would turn it off as it was / is "too daft to laugh at" !

[i_ateallthepies]

I wasn't commenting on his reasons for calling the referendum, there's no doubt as to his reasons.  Cameron made one big stupid assumption of the outcome and called the referendum, which, if that wasn't 'trusting' the electorate, what on earth was it?

[Glyn_Wigley]

I wasn't commenting on his reasons for calling the referendum, there's no doubt as to his reasons.  Cameron made one big stupid assumption of the outcome and called the referendum, which, if that wasn't 'trusting' the electorate, what on earth was it?

I don't think Cameron trusted the electorate, I think he took them for granted. But I can see how someone else might think differently.

[Glyn_Wigley]

There's one thing that seems to have been overlooked....how will today's omnishambles have been viewed by the EU and their negotiators?

[hoolahoop]

But that ignores the paramilitary aspect Glyn. That is at least as important as the conventional political fallout.

Both sides have historically seen Northern Ireland as a zero-sum game. If you are winning, we are losing. The genius of the Good Friday Agreement was that it gave just enough to each side to keep an equilibrium. The moment you tip that either way, you have destroyed the balance and given one side the potential to feel that they are losing out.

So if there's a hard border in Ireland, the Republican's will be pissed off and if there's a hard border in the Irish Sea, the Unionists will be pissed off. Either one of those outcomes disturbs the balance of the GFA and runs the risk of the men with guns coming back to argue the case for the side that feels it has lost out.

If the vote is to stay the same, there's nothing for the paramilitary to get annoyed about. If NI vote for independence, it's not the UK's problem any more, it'll be the DUP's assuming they still hold power. And what would the paramilitary hope to expect to get out of the DUP?

It won't be the UK tipping anything one way or the other, it'll be the NI electorate themselves.

Win-win for the UK it seems to me.

Besides, I didn't say have a referendum, I said threaten the DUP with one.

The biggest bollock dropped is triggering article 50 without having a clear and detailed plan worked out

That just about sums it up Filo and that was said right from  the start - it was triggered early because the Tory backbenchers and the media were getting  jumpy about any lack of progress as they saw it.  Of course Farage was becoming unduly restless too and saw this debacle slipping away and unable to advantage his American mates. A lifetime's shite would have gone up in flames and of course there would have been some evil bas**rds ready to point the finger at  him Bannon, Flynn, Trump etc......it is now beginning to unfold .

The links between Putin, Cambridge "Anal"yitica, Brexiters and the Trump crew are now being made .

[hoolahoop]

I love this line from Downing St which is supposed to be positive.

“It’s not ONLY the Irish border that prevented agreement.”

Whoopee f**king doo. That’s alright then. I was worried that it was ONLY the fact that the Govt hasn’t got a clue what to do about Ireland that was holding stuff up. But we’ve got no f**king idea what to do about EU citizens as well. What a relief!

PMSL,  it's so serious but I couldn't help it - need to clean mesen up now.

[Muttley]

There's one thing that seems to have been overlooked....how will today's omnishambles have been viewed by the EU and their negotiators?

I don't think they will have been overly surprised given what's gone before.

[Donny Dub]

Interesting times indeed.
No one mentions the role of the ROI in all this.  ROI of course are members of the EU and have been told by Brussels that they have a veto on these negotiations.  They will not accept the imposition of a ‘hard’ border with the north.  Most of the public here in the ROI are enjoying the drama, they like to see DUP angry and frustrated and the humiliation and exploitation of the UK.  Many see these impasse eventually leading to a united 32 County Ireland governed from Dublin.  Anathema to the DUP but they are aware that their majority is declining and would be very disinclined to accept a NI only referendum on this issue, especially as the majority in NI voted remain in the UK Brexit referendum
There’s no doubt Mrs May and her advisors seem to be being led up the garden path by Brussels, the DUP and the Irish government.  What on earth led her to make that €50 billion opening gambit last week?  It put the UK in a very weak position straight away.  These three parties feel they have her and the UK government wrapped around the little finger.   I am very surprised the British have not put forward a stronger more determined position.  Where are your poker players?
The main stumbling block is the Irish border question and there seems be a solution.  North and South are already efficiently cooperating on many cross border administrative issues.  Sweden and Norway share an EU border that is complicated by Norway’s NAFTA membership and they make it work. 
If the UK does not come out of the CU, single market and European Court of Justice you might as well forget the Brexit!
 

[wilts rover]

Here's an interesting piece of news that appears to have got lost among the other interesting news that has come out today.

Not only didn't she have the backing of the DUP but May didn't actually have the backing of the cabinet to put that deal to the EU. What will the repercussions for that be?
https://www.facebook.com/pestonitv/posts/1958015007856568

[RedJ]

Sounds like she's gone and rammed a Samurai sword up her foof.

[The Red Baron]

I understand there is the requisite number of signatures of Tory MPs to demand a leadership contest. They just haven't pushed the button... Yet!

[Filo]

May has been an utter car crash of a PM, calling an election she did n't have or need to call and then triggering article 50 totally unprepared

[BillyStubbsTears]

DD

Go on then. I’ll bite. What cards does the Govt have to play?

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB

Aye. And The Honorable Member for the 18th Century met with Steve Bannon the other day.

Just to exchange ideas on strategy for modern conservatives, you understand. Absolutely no way whatsoever was he looking for Breitbart to support him by pinging out dogwhistle messages to the Tory membership when the leadership election comes.

[Filo]

DD

Go on then. I’ll bite. What cards does the Govt have to play?

Ace High

The DUP had a pair of 2's

[Akinfenwa]

Staying in both the single market and customs union pretty much means the UK retains inferior, passive membership of the EU whilst not gaining the supposed benefits of leaving. It's quite obvious then, why no other country has this sort of pointless arrangement when you can apply to become a full member.

Anything else however, appears unworkable due to the sensitive situation in Ireland, the weakness of the goverment and their reliance on DUP support.

Any special arrangements won't go unnoticed by the SNP and the likes.

Brexit has the potential to end the so-called United Kingdom.

[MachoMadness]

You can tell when the Tories are in the DUP's bad books because they start calling themselves "The Conservative and Unionist Party" again.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Here's an interesting piece of news that appears to have got lost among the other interesting news that has come out today.

Not only didn't she have the backing of the DUP but May didn't actually have the backing of the cabinet to put that deal to the EU. What will the repercussions for that be?
https://www.facebook.com/pestonitv/posts/1958015007856568

Good piece, that one Wilts.

There’s a tiny part of me that feels a little for May, having to deal with the flat-earth Little Englanders who make up her party membership, and the ego-maniacs of Johnson and Gove. Maybe she’s genuinely been trying to steer the country towards a less than catastrophic Brexit whilst knowing that she has to bring her rabid right wing along. Maybe Peston’s right and that’s the tightrope she’s walking. It’s a supremely difficult task and you’d be less than human not to understand her difficulty.

Actually, b*llocks to that. She’s spent a decade pandering to the worst of the xenophobic, Europhobic side of the Tory party. Like her classic Conference speech when she said, “I am not making this up, the ECHR won’t let us deport an illegal immigrant because he has a cat.” Except she WAS making it up.

So, frankly, she can arseholes. She is as responsible as anyone for this calamity and I hope it takes her down into the shit tip of history.

[hoolahoop]

DD

Go on then. I’ll bite. What cards does the Govt have to play?

Ace High

The DUP had a pair of 2's

Aye and the EU is sat smiling with a Royal Flush - what has this country come to . Taking back control my arse ........out of control for sure.

[Donny Dub]

Hello DD according to news tonight DUP and UK both held winning  cards dealt by Brussels.  They were allowed to compare their hands but neglected to do so and the DUP folded the best cards they’re likely to get again.  Mrs May and the DUP hadn’t communicated and the game is blown.

It appears that NI were to be allowed a special arrangement to prevent a hard border.  Continuing membership of single market and CU was available to them alone but  the DUP rejected it, they insisted that they would reject any arrangement different to any other part of the UK.  Scotland, Wales and it seems even London would have loved to get this deal.

You probably all know that the devolved Stormont government has not met for the past few months because DUP and SinnFeinn refuse to communicate.  There’s no proper discussion being held about this in the north anyway

We’re watching history being made here that’s for sure.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Hoola.

To be fair, I don’t think anyone on the EU side is smiling. Nothing good is going to come out of this for anyone.

But they are absolutely right to stick to the demand that the three pre-requisites are dealt with. The EU didn’t call or lose this vote. We did it and we have to face up to the consequences, not simply ignore them and then say “Can we have a REALLY good deal to make us well off please.”

[BillyStubbsTears]

DD

Yes. Of course the DUP rejected that. As anyone who thinks about the raison d’etre of the DUP for a moment would know that they would. It’s all on here back up the thread.