Brexit Negotiations

[BillyStubbsTears]

Tell you what. I suspect there’s some fascinating back room discussions going on at Westminster tonight.

May to DUP: Right. I’m in your side but you’ve got to grow up. We have to have the soft border or the whole shebang collapses. I’ll call an Election. You’ll get Adams’s mate, Corbyn as PM.

And if Labour’s got any sense, they’ll be saying to the DUP: That’s all in the past. Time for us ALL to be grown ups. You want NI to have the same deal as UK? Fine. We’ll all stay in the SM and CU.

But the Tories would say: We’re giving you £2bn for NI. You lose that if the Govt falls.

And Labour would say: What’s £2bn? We’re planning to invest £500bn on infrastructure. I’m sure we could see our way to letting NI get a decent wedge of that.   

I’d give my left bollock to be a fly on the wall. This is what politics actually is.

[Glyn_Wigley]

There's one thing that seems to have been overlooked....how will today's omnishambles have been viewed by the EU and their negotiators?

I don't think they will have been overly surprised given what's gone before.

Surely they'll be asking themselves why they're even bothering to waste their time negotiating with the UK Government team about the Irish border when it looks from this that it's the DUP making the decisions, not Teresa May's people.

[hoolahoop]

Hoola.

To be fair, I don’t think anyone on the EU side is smiling. Nothing good is going to come out of this for anyone.

But they are absolutely right to stick to the demand that the three pre-requisites are dealt with. The EU didn’t call or lose this vote. We did it and we have to face up to the consequences, not simply ignore them and then say “Can we have a REALLY good deal to make us well off please.”

Nah sorry Billy a few of them will be grinning especially as they gain the jobs we lose, the businesses we lose and the standing in both Europe and on the International stage we finally lose.

They take the pot....you don't think the French for instance aren't grinning from ear to ear ? The EU will survive and we will still be paying in £ billions to access what we will still need with little influence bar that which our  military capability can gain for us in  Poland, Romania and the Baltic States.

It's no fun seeing our country being humiliated but we or rather our leading Brexiters had it coming only sadly  it will be at  expense of the poorest and weakest in our society.

No more opt--outs , no more games or attempts to play big Billy Bollox- we just have to see the game out and rescue what we can. Perhaps someone has dropped a couple of chips on the way out allowing us at least the luxury of a taxi back home. 

[hoolahoop]

My guess is we will ALL end up in the CU with regulatory divergence

[Donnywolf]

There's one thing that seems to have been overlooked....how will today's omnishambles have been viewed by the EU and their negotiators?

I don't think they will have been overly surprised given what's gone before.

Surely they'll be asking themselves why they're even bothering to waste their time negotiating with the UK Government team about the Irish border when it looks from this that it's the DUP making the decisions, not Teresa May's people.

Aye - as I have said previously a really low ratio of Votes at the General Election compared to say The Green Party (Greens got twice as many votes ish) and DUP got 10 times more Seats - which allow them to hold the balance of power and demand anything they fancy and May has to jump

Lib Dems got 10 times the votes of the DUP and 2 more Seats - and no say whatsoever

Can anyone see The Greens demanding anything with their 1 MP or the Lib Dems with their 12 Seats and not being laughed at ?

Roll on PR (AGAIN although this is not exactly the thread for it I concede)

[RedJ]

My guess is we will ALL end up in the CU with regulatory divergence

Still living in blind hope that we'll just say f**k it and give it up as a bad job.

[The Red Baron]

My guess is we will ALL end up in the CU with regulatory divergence

Still living in blind hope that we'll just say f**k it and give it up as a bad job.

It could happen, but you'll need a GE early next year, a change of Government and probably a second referendum.

I still think a kind of Norway arrangement is the most likely outcome, although I can see that upsetting a lot of people on both sides.

[The Red Baron]

And dead on cue...

https://mobile.twitter.com/RuthDavidsonMSP/status/937972391577341952

Presumably "regulatory alignment" is the current code phrase for  "we stay in the SM and CU."

[BillyStubbsTears]

And dead on cue...

https://mobile.twitter.com/RuthDavidsonMSP/status/937972391577341952

Presumably "regulatory alignment" is the current code phrase for  "we stay in the SM and CU."

Dominic Grieve wascsaying the same thing on R4 last night. Whilst of course Rees-Mogg is saying that we should cut ourselves off the continental shelf and sail for Amerika.

Grand eh? “Taking back control of our country” really did mean that. But the “our” referred only to a handful of Tory MPs.

[Donny Dub]

Look on the bright side.  Ireland and the DUP have saved the UK €50 billion and a diluted Brexit that would have bound you still with trading regulations.  The whole deal will now be renegotiated, the EU would like you to have another referendum like they did for us in Ireland with Nice and Lisbon!  Hopefully at some stage in the future you may find a better negotiator than Mrs May.  That is unless of course she’s fooled everyone and is about to play her master stroke!

[BillyStubbsTears]

DD

How has £50bn been saved? We are still going to have to pay that or something close to it. We’re contractually bound. The whole point of the current negotiation was to fix what the Sun was that we owe.

[Glyn_Wigley]

When are people going to realise that if we try and walk away without coughing up what we're contracted to, then the list of countries that will be 'lining up to have a trade deal' with a country that unilaterally breaks deals at the drop of a hat is going to be very short.

[Donny Dub]

Surely your country would not be daft enough to pay the €50 billion if there is no deal?  I am referring to the distinct possibility that everything will be renegotiated now.

Unless Mrs May has an ace up her sleeve the EU May insist you have another referendum.  You might face another GE or a change of Tory leadership at the very least.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Surely your country would not be daft enough to pay the €50 billion if there is no deal?  I am referring to the distinct possibility that everything will be renegotiated now.

Unless Mrs May has an ace up her sleeve the EU May insist you have another referendum.  You might face another GE or a change of Tory leadership at the very least.

Yet another person who fails to realise that a trade deal is NOTHING to do with Brexit. It's (hopefully) something that can be negotiated to replace what we currently have with the EU, but it is in no way obligatory as part of the UK leaving the EU. The EU can quite legally demand the money we're contracted to paying without even bothering to consider a new trade deal.

[The Red Baron]

Glyn

As far as I know no-one on either side has spelled out exactly what our obligations are- an itemised bill, if you like. Until you get that (if ever) the  "Divorce Bill" is a matter for negotiations.

I suspect if we get into the "No Deal" scenario that the money the UK pays will be considerably less than £50bn. Although we are a long way from that.

[BillyStubbsTears]

DD

What do you think the £50bn is for?

[Donny Dub]

Well BST no one really knows why €50bilion or any other figure or indeed a rebate for that matter because Brussels have not ever shown any proper accounts.  It appears, in the absence of any public information from either side,  that this would certainly be a matter of negotiation.  It seemed Mrs May and her team just pulled that amount from her hat before any proper talks had even started.

The British public and indeed the rest of Europe must be getting very annoyed at this procrastination and delay after their vote to was leave the EU.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Well BST no one really knows why €50bilion or any other figure or indeed a rebate for that matter because Brussels have not ever shown any proper accounts.  It appears, in the absence of any public information from either side,  that this would certainly be a matter of negotiation.  It seemed Mrs May and her team just pulled that amount from her hat before any proper talks had even started.

The British public and indeed the rest of Europe must be getting very annoyed at this procrastination and delay after their vote to was leave the EU.

How do the accounts get audited and signed off each year if they don't show them to anyone?

Anyway, that's nothing to do with what the UK owe anyway so stop trying to chuck a red herring into matters.

It's nothing to do with a rebate either.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Glyn

As far as I know no-one on either side has spelled out exactly what our obligations are- an itemised bill, if you like. Until you get that (if ever) the  "Divorce Bill" is a matter for negotiations.

I suspect if we get into the "No Deal" scenario that the money the UK pays will be considerably less than £50bn. Although we are a long way from that.

The EU has done an itemised bill. We're trying to haggle with them, that's what the 'negotiations' amount to.

[BillyStubbsTears]

The British public and indeed the rest of Europe must be getting very annoyed at this procrastination and delay after their vote to was leave the EU.

I'm sure the rest of Europe ARE very annoyed about it. Certainly the people I speak to professionally are somewhere on the scale between incredulous and furious.

But your comment kind of sums up the problem. You DO regularly hear people in Britain saying "We voted OUT, why don't we get on with it?" As though you just push a button and leave. As though there is one final state that we will obviously be in after the separation.
People were told it was binary decision. We either stay in or we get out.

As I've said before, the single most stupid comment made in this whole debate has been "Brexit means Brexit." Does it hell. Brexit means an infinite number of possible outcomes, and an infinite number of different ways of getting to those outcomes. What's happening is that many of those issues that were ignored or belittled during the Referendum campaign are turning out to be horrifically complex. And, on top of it all, there is no consensus in the country about what sort of Brexit we want and what we're prepared to sacrifice and risk to get it. So yeah, I can understand why Europe is rather pissed of with us careering into this situation with no idea of what we wanted the outcome to be. I've less sympathy with people who voted Leave without doing that thinking first.
 

[The Red Baron]

Glyn

As far as I know no-one on either side has spelled out exactly what our obligations are- an itemised bill, if you like. Until you get that (if ever) the  "Divorce Bill" is a matter for negotiations.

I suspect if we get into the "No Deal" scenario that the money the UK pays will be considerably less than £50bn. Although we are a long way from that.

The EU has done an itemised bill. We're trying to haggle with them, that's what the 'negotiations' amount to.

No they haven't. They have waited for the UK to make an offer. The initial one wasn't enough, which is what you'd expect in a negotiation. The more recent offer was close enough to what the EU wanted to move forward.

[Not Now Kato]

When they said it was the will of the people I didn't realise they meant just 10 of them.  Ah, BREALITY.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Glyn

As far as I know no-one on either side has spelled out exactly what our obligations are- an itemised bill, if you like. Until you get that (if ever) the  "Divorce Bill" is a matter for negotiations.

I suspect if we get into the "No Deal" scenario that the money the UK pays will be considerably less than £50bn. Although we are a long way from that.

TRB

Just because you haven’t seen an itemised bill doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist. There are many things that are kept only to the negotiating parties in a negotiation.

Do you think the UK has just made a number up to see if the EU will buy it?

Or do you reckon the several hundred civil servants on both sides who have been working for over a year on this might have been sorting out the numbers and passing them back to their respective sides?

But regardless. Think about this. The “Divorce Bill” (silly name - it’s actually a recognition of obligations) amounts to about 2.5% of our GDP

Once.

If we leave without a deal with the EU and our trade with the EU goes into WTC rules, that amount will look like a gnat’s fart at the side of an elephant’s dung heap compared to what our economy will lose.

Year after year.

Rees-Mogg and Johnson can wrap themselves up in their best Britannia Waives the Rules cloaks and tell the EU to go whistle, but apart from a mad monetarist who gave us the catastrophe of the 1981 recession, you’ll not find an economist who thinks that a no-deal Brexit will be anything less than an economic catastrophe. We’ve already lost £20bn of economic output since the votejust on the worry about how badly a good deal will impact on us.

[SydneyRover]

Post Wrexit, after all the talking, after all the negotiations.............Britain will revert to something like Gibraltar, bad food bad service few jobs and a smattering of old British shops just waiting around for the next coach or cruise liner to dock.

[hoolahoop]

When are people going to realise that if we try and walk away without coughing up what we're contracted to, then the list of countries that will be 'lining up to have a trade deal' with a country that unilaterally breaks deals at the drop of a hat is going to be very short.

North Korea , Russia......we could tie up with Russia they are already the no.1 Brexiter's friend.

[hoolahoop]

My guess is we will ALL end up in the CU with regulatory divergence

Still living in blind hope that we'll just say f**k it and give it up as a bad job.

You too as well Red J - great to see you have come round to the idea.

[RedJ]

My guess is we will ALL end up in the CU with regulatory divergence

Still living in blind hope that we'll just say f**k it and give it up as a bad job.

You too as well Red J - great to see you have come round to the idea.

I've always been against the entire thing. 

[BillyStubbsTears]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42249854

This is quite simply beyond belief.

We’re more than half way through the most important national negotiation since WWII and the Govt hasn’t conducted an assessment of the consequences of different outcomes?

How in God’s name do you negotiate if you don’t know the possible outcomes?

[Not Now Kato]

Committee chairman Hilary Benn challenged Mr Davis as to whether the documents received constituted impact assessments on whether toys would be delivered this Christmas, or whether the assessments on toy delivery had been undertaken.

Mr Davis said: "There's nothing...there's no such systematic impact assessments that I'm aware of."

Pressing the issue, Mr Benn responded: "So the answer to the question is no?

After Mr Davis signalled his agreement, Mr Benn went on:"So, there is no Santa Claus?"

The Brexit secretary said: "Not that I'm aware of".

Asked whether there is an assessment on the existence of the Three Wise men or whether shepherds were present at the Nativity, he added: "The answer is going to be ´no' for all of them."

[Donnywolf]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42249854

This is quite simply beyond belief.

We’re more than half way through the most important national negotiation since WWII and the Govt hasn’t conducted an assessment of the consequences of different outcomes?

How in God’s name do you negotiate if you don’t know the possible outcomes?

Probably using the same blase "rationale" as Cameron who obviously called the referendum never considering one of the choices would lead us to this point

Never mind though - even though he has gone his wife SamCam still owns" a bit of a field somewhere near Scunthorpe" so they will be ok