Brexit Negotiations

[Dutch Uncle]

Yet another report on the likely effects of Brexit.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42315280

This one caught my eye because it is by Rand, an organisation I know well and which is internationally well respected. Despite significant US Government funding it is fiercely independent, and studies and reports by them are often commissioned by national and international bodies outside of the US. For example the Dutch Government, far from strangers to the subject, commissioned a large report on Inland Waterway Management. Rand also wrote the most important independent defence papers on new world order and potential new roles for NATO after the collapse of the Warsaw Pact in 1989.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I am astonished that anyone is surprised that politicians (of all parties) don't tell the truth or give straight answers to questions.

As for infighting, well that has always been the case hasn't it?

There is a qualitative difference between evading giving a truthful answer and simply flat lying.

In times past, Ministers who were caught lying to Parliament were expected to resign. No questions asked. It was taken as read that Parliament couldn’t operate if there was no sanction on liars.  John Profumo was a classic example. He wasn’t sacked for having an affair with a woman who was also sleeping with a Soviet spy.  He resigned when he was caught lying to Parliament about it.

Today, no-one seems to give a shite if David Davis lies about Brexit documents, then shrugs it off when his lie is exposed.

It’s not a laughing matter. Lose control on objective truth and we’re on a very slippery slope.

[Dutch Uncle]

It has often been said over the years that we follow trends set in the USA. I worry that the Trump new normality of saying what you like and never mind if it is true or not, combined with calling anything critical 'fake news' is gaining a foothold over here.

[Glyn_Wigley]

It has often been said over the years that we follow trends set in the USA. I worry that the Trump new normality of saying what you like and never mind if it is true or not, combined with calling anything critical 'fake news' is gaining a foothold over here.

His mate Nige led the way though.

[BillyStubbsTears]

And it works on both sides of the political debate.

John Harris published a careful piece a few months ago, pleading for the Left not to go down the same route as the Right, in sacrificing objective truth on the altar of partisan propaganda.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/06/journalists-takes-sides-truth-to-power-activists

Some of the responses were, frankly, scary. Intelligent people making the argument "But the Sun/Mail/Express have been doing it for years - we've got to fight fire with fire." Utterly oblivious that this argument is as stupid as those who claim that we should defend our heritage and liberties by locking up suspects without trial and torturing them.

[SydneyRover]

The ABC introduced Fact Check some time ago and puts politicians on notice that they will/can be found out when making dubious claims, the public are encouraged to report dubious claims for scrutiny.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-13/fact-check-kristina-keneally-education-spending/9228574

[BillyStubbsTears]

Yeah but who reads those web sites?

[BillyStubbsTears]

And in the meantime, THIS is where we’re heading 

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/12/12/politics/partisanship-alabama/index.html

Final paragraph:

The Point: This is the new reality in our politics, a reality ushered in by Trump's 2016 victory. Facts are fungible -- and subject to the partisan lens through which you see the world. No matter which lens that is, a world without agreed-upon facts should terrify you.

[SydneyRover]

Yeah but who reads those web sites?

The ABC is the Australian national broadcaster and has similar reach and influence across Australia as does the BBC across Britain, it would be an effective tool to counter mis-claims and would have been a great tool to counter rubbish such as the NHS will get 350 million pounds/wk with Brexit.

[SydneyRover]

And in the meantime, THIS is where we’re heading 

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/12/12/politics/partisanship-alabama/index.html

Final paragraph:

The Point: This is the new reality in our politics, a reality ushered in by Trump's 2016 victory. Facts are fungible -- and subject to the partisan lens through which you see the world. No matter which lens that is, a world without agreed-upon facts should terrify you.

I agree BST the future of politics is not good but it can be countered with good journalism, if not on all fronts.

[hoolahoop]

There is a huge imbalance between young and old in Parliament . It needs addressing fast as decisions can't always be made by the old for the young- there is a disconnect and a misunderstanding of youth cultures, needs etc.
Personally it's time that we limited the years spent in Parliament by individuals ......i.e. 30/40 + years is far too long to ' nurse ' the politics of yesteryear and impede the policies required for the ever-evolving needs of the here and now and of course plan for the future.

Yes by all means learn from yesterday but to still live there is a crime in politics and that  has brought us into this mess. A group of 60 + year old men have been nursing an ideology that simply held us back in Europe . Rather than shape it they continuously fought against it .
 The rest will be the future history written about the downfall of the UK brought about by these old , grey men in suits. Those who who fo years plotted and eventually destroyed the futures of generations to come .

Thats why I hope ultimately that PR will be realised to be the way to go electorally

I used to laugh at the Libs and others weeping because they wanted PR - and I used to think "hah that's cos you cant win - bad losers"

However I can say when I became more aware I could see exactly what they want(ed) and they could count on my vote if anyone has the b***s to call it.

More people especially the younger voters may actually vote in greater numbers rather than thinking (for example) that the Tories will win the Constituency in which they are to vote by 10,000 so there is no point voting.

They could in future vote for the Green Party or Lib Dems and really affect the outcomes of Elections and ultimately the Country they get to live in

I'm with you too on this Wolfie , the disparities in our current FPTP system have led to us wasting year after year 'unpicking' one or the other's policies especially in the Economy, Health, Education, Policing and Security .
No wonder we have been left so far  behind in Productivity, Educational attainment , Health programmes to name but a few areas affected by bi- partisan politics. Would austerity have continued this long under a Coalition ( although I admit it started under a Coalition ) ? - I doubt it . Undoubtedly in this context the Lib/Dems simply had neither the numbers (57) to influence nor enough in common with the Tory Party to take a full and active role in a full- blooded coalition . They simply caved in to pressure however small and had insufficient in common with what became their Tory masters

Had they been better led and had the numbers commensurate with their vote share i.e. 23% and in PR terms some 150 MPs then things would have turned out somewhat differently. They would have in fact probably joined forces with a limping Labour Party and rejuvenated it to an extent whereupon austerity probably would never have existed at all . UKIP would  have died by now and the Referendum would never have happened  ! How history and the lack of a decent PR system has now shaped us and put us on a precipice is yet to fully define our futures but it's not looking grand .

The problem is that minor parties in any coalition in this country Would usually have far fewer MPs than their vote share and therefore influence on the senior partner - the current DUP / Tory situation being an unusual exception. Here a Party with only 0.9 % of the national vote share and 10 MPs is propping up May's government. An anomaly I doubt would ever exist given the nature of hundreds of years of bi - partisan politics under any decent PR system.

Incidentally here are the 2017 election results converted by direct PR vote share and comparisons with Actual :-
                 PR      ACTUAL
Tory        276          318
Labour   260          262
L/Dem      48            12
SNP           20            35
UKIP          12              0
Greens      10              1
DUP             6             10
S/F              5               7
Plaid C        3               4
Others       10               1

This once again suggests that we still have " rainbow " politics at large that isn't reflected in our FPTP  system . If people remember these PR results are consistent with the ACTUAL  results of the 2010 election .

However commanding and holding a majority under straight PR is just as difficult . What is alarming is the disparity between the number of seats the Torys now hold and their % share of the vote. If they are to disadvantage further both the Labour and the L/ Dem  Parties we virtually will have a one party state going forward.

[SydneyRover]

The worm has turned & compared to the original vote the margin is massive. Bremainers lead Wrexiters by 10 points.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-second-referendum-latest-poll-remain-ten-points-leave-bmg-a8114406.html

[RedJ]

Aye but this pollster had Remain to win by 7 points and the Tories to win the last election too.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Aye but this pollster had Remain to win by 7 points and the Tories to win the last election too.

Referendum.
Not really correct RedJ. BMG consistently had Leave in front throughout the campaign. They DID have one phone poll the week before the vote which had Remain 6 points ahead. But on the same day, they had an on-line poll which had Leave 10 points ahead.

[RedJ]

Ah. Laziness on my part, I'd just read that 'fact' in a reply to a tweet with that link in this morning.

[BillyStubbsTears]

That’s the Zeitgeist RedJ.

[hoolahoop]

Ah. Laziness on my part, I'd just read that 'fact' in a reply to a tweet with that link in this morning.

Fair enough Red J , I have noticed that you can hold your hands up when wrong - a rare trait these days on this subject

[SydneyRover]

What the hell more does anyone need to know about Wrexit to know that it is going to be very very bad for the majority of British people and mainly those in areas of low economic growth and low socioeconomic circumstances.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/imf-christine-lagarde-brexit-uk-economy-assessment-forecasts-eu-referendum-forecasts-a8119886.html

[hoolahoop]

What the hell more does anyone need to know about Wrexit to know that it is going to be very very bad for the majority of British people and mainly those in areas of low economic growth and low socioeconomic circumstances.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/imf-christine-lagarde-brexit-uk-economy-assessment-forecasts-eu-referendum-forecasts-a8119886.html

Leavers basically don't care even if their own jobs are on the line .....which it is .

[SydneyRover]

What the hell more does anyone need to know about Wrexit to know that it is going to be very very bad for the majority of British people and mainly those in areas of low economic growth and low socioeconomic circumstances.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/imf-christine-lagarde-brexit-uk-economy-assessment-forecasts-eu-referendum-forecasts-a8119886.html

Leavers basically don't care even if their own jobs are on the line .....which it is .

Maybe they don't Hoola, but if they have any humanity thet should care about the circumstances of others.

[SydneyRover]

Well this has absolutely be the final straw:

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/food-and-drink/uk-wine-prices-rise-brexit-latest-updates-drinknig-alcohol-eu-withdrawal-a8122216.html

[wilts rover]

What the hell more does anyone need to know about Wrexit to know that it is going to be very very bad for the majority of British people and mainly those in areas of low economic growth and low socioeconomic circumstances.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/imf-christine-lagarde-brexit-uk-economy-assessment-forecasts-eu-referendum-forecasts-a8119886.html

Leavers basically don't care even if their own jobs are on the line .....which it is .

Maybe they don't Hoola, but if they have any humanity thet should care about the circumstances of others.

Shall we remind ourselves of this survey. 61% of Leave voters dont care if Brexit leads to serious economic damage and 50% of Leave voters aged over 65 are willing to see a family member loose their job for Brexit to go ahead.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-leave-voters-uk-economy-damage-yougov-older-pensioners-losing-jobs-income-taxes-a7870871.html

[Sprotyrover]

Well this has absolutely be the final straw:

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/food-and-drink/uk-wine-prices-rise-brexit-latest-updates-drinknig-alcohol-eu-withdrawal-a8122216.html

Yes it has an Aussie getting upset because we might have to pay more for French wine!

[idler]

What the hell more does anyone need to know about Wrexit to know that it is going to be very very bad for the majority of British people and mainly those in areas of low economic growth and low socioeconomic circumstances.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/imf-christine-lagarde-brexit-uk-economy-assessment-forecasts-eu-referendum-forecasts-a8119886.html

Leavers basically don't care even if their own jobs are on the line .....which it is .

Maybe they don't Hoola, but if they have any humanity thet should care about the circumstances of others.

Shall we remind ourselves of this survey. 61% of Leave voters dont care if Brexit leads to serious economic damage and 50% of Leave voters aged over 65 are willing to see a family member loose their job for Brexit to go ahead.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-leave-voters-uk-economy-damage-yougov-older-pensioners-losing-jobs-income-taxes-a7870871.html

I don't know of any leavers that share these views, so are the leavers I know not typical leavers or is the poll not a true reflection?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Yeah. I agree that that poll is suspect. Not in that people didn’t say that. But I simply do not believe that people really think that. The issue is that there was and is a concerted approach telling people that there will not be economic downsides to Brexit. And I suspect there is a big chunk of the population who hear that and refuse to even seriously countenance that the opposite might be true.

[SydneyRover]

What the hell more does anyone need to know about Wrexit to know that it is going to be very very bad for the majority of British people and mainly those in areas of low economic growth and low socioeconomic circumstances.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/imf-christine-lagarde-brexit-uk-economy-assessment-forecasts-eu-referendum-forecasts-a8119886.html

Not sure I.dler, to me they are pretty repugnant views.

Leavers basically don't care even if their own jobs are on the line .....which it is .

Maybe they don't Hoola, but if they have any humanity thet should care about the circumstances of others.

Shall we remind ourselves of this survey. 61% of Leave voters dont care if Brexit leads to serious economic damage and 50% of Leave voters aged over 65 are willing to see a family member loose their job for Brexit to go ahead.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-leave-voters-uk-economy-damage-yougov-older-pensioners-losing-jobs-income-taxes-a7870871.html

I don't know of any leavers that share these views, so are the leavers I know not typical leavers or is the poll not a true reflection?

Not sure Idler, to me they are pretty repugnant views.

[Sprotyrover]

What the hell more does anyone need to know about Wrexit to know that it is going to be very very bad for the majority of British people and mainly those in areas of low economic growth and low socioeconomic circumstances.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/imf-christine-lagarde-brexit-uk-economy-assessment-forecasts-eu-referendum-forecasts-a8119886.html

Not sure I.dler, to me they are pretty repugnant views.

Leavers basically don't care even if their own jobs are on the line .....which it is .

Maybe they don't Hoola, but if they have any humanity thet should care about the circumstances of others.

Shall we remind ourselves of this survey. 61% of Leave voters dont care if Brexit leads to serious economic damage and 50% of Leave voters aged over 65 are willing to see a family member loose their job for Brexit to go ahead.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-leave-voters-uk-economy-damage-yougov-older-pensioners-losing-jobs-income-taxes-a7870871.html

I don't know of any leavers that share these views, so are the leavers I know not typical leavers or is the poll not a true reflection?

Not sure Idler, to me they are pretty repugnant views.

Hmm stories like this tend to ncrease News paper sales!

[idler]

What the hell more does anyone need to know about Wrexit to know that it is going to be very very bad for the majority of British people and mainly those in areas of low economic growth and low socioeconomic circumstances.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/imf-christine-lagarde-brexit-uk-economy-assessment-forecasts-eu-referendum-forecasts-a8119886.html

Not sure I.dler, to me they are pretty repugnant views.

Leavers basically don't care even if their own jobs are on the line .....which it is .

Maybe they don't Hoola, but if they have any humanity thet should care about the circumstances of others.

Shall we remind ourselves of this survey. 61% of Leave voters dont care if Brexit leads to serious economic damage and 50% of Leave voters aged over 65 are willing to see a family member loose their job for Brexit to go ahead.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-leave-voters-uk-economy-damage-yougov-older-pensioners-losing-jobs-income-taxes-a7870871.html

I don't know of any leavers that share these views, so are the leavers I know not typical leavers or is the poll not a true reflection?

Not sure Idler, to me they are pretty repugnant views.

Was the survey carried out in a fair cross section of remain/leave areas or concentrated on staunch leave areas?
Ask people from all areas to get a more honest opinion.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Judging by the company who conducted the survey, it will have been as fair and balanced as it’s reasonably possible to achieve.

But as I say, I don’t believe that it really reflects the actual views of people.

At least I hope to God that it doesn’t.

[idler]

That's fair enough then Billy but the reason that I voted leave and most or all leavers that I know are not represented by these people.
I don't and never have associated with racists,xenophobes and bigots but these are the way a lot of remainers envisage leavers.