Brexit Negotiations

[BillyStubbsTears]

He’s getting his knickers in a twist about the EU “banning British driving licences.”

Except no-one from the EU has mentioned “banning British driving licences.”

An official from the European Commission pointed out, correctly, that if there’s no ratified agreement on road transport issues then existing agreements would lapse and the EU and Britain would, by default, not recognise each other’s licences.

When that became public, some U.K. papers presented this as EU threatening to ban U.K. drivers.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.express.co.uk/news/politics/922647/Brexit-latest-news-UK-driving-licences-Europe-driver-ban/amp

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/684147/UK-driving-licence-banned-EU-Brexit-insurance-hire-car-department-of-transport/amp

For the record, no-one (that’s NO-ONE) from the EU has mentioned U.K. drivers or licences being banned. But Sproty has parroted this shite being peddled by the mendacious f**kers who run the right-wing media.

This is the culture in which we are dealing with Brexit.
https://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2018/02/the-persuasive-power-of-uk-right-wing.html?m=1

[Glyn_Wigley]

I knew that, I'm trying to find out whether he does or whether he just regurgitates any old crap. He can obviously find the info, but apparently only after he's posted the original claim and got in a froth about it.

[wilts rover]

Ok ladies just to let you know Fox hasn't got a clue, the are conventions governing driving licences and Motor Insurance that pre date Our Membership of the EEC which will facilitate a smooth and seamless Brexit on this issue.

So what the f**k are the Telegraph - and then you - getting your knickers in a twist about then?

There are - but unfortunately there is no one treaty that the UK and all the EU counties are signed up to. Which is why we have sign up to the Geneva Road Traffic Convention - and have it with the UN by 29 March this year as it takes 12 months to implement - in case there is no deal with the EU.

Not to mention the extra paperwork for hauliers over cabotage rights.
https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-driving-license-london-racing-to-avoid-roadblock/

Still I dont think there is any need to worry I'm sure Liam can sort it out no problem, Sproty did, it's the easiest trade deal in history.....

[RedJ]

I knew that, I'm trying to find out whether he does or whether he just regurgitates any old crap. He can obviously find the info, but apparently only after he's posted the original claim and got in a froth about it.

Well at least it's a step up from Oslo who spouts completely unsubstantiated shite then challenges anyone to disagree with his made up facts to prove him wrong...

[hoolahoop]

I knew that, I'm trying to find out whether he does or whether he just regurgitates any old crap. He can obviously find the info, but apparently only after he's posted the original claim and got in a froth about it.

Well at least it's a step up from Oslo who spouts completely unsubstantiated shite then challenges anyone to disagree with his made up facts to prove him wrong...

However Red J,  he IS  spouting completely slanted and incorrect stories. This demonizing of the EU  is childish and gets us nowhere.
Sporty these are possible consequences/ impact assessments if you liked and it is the duty of both sides to not only find these sort of weaknesses but hopefully go on to resolve them.

This ant- EU demonizing shit doesn't help us to create a deep and special partnership with our friends now does it ?

Sporty please come on here with good hard , well - researched facts rather than slanted opinion designed to create more enmity and an incorrect illusion of both the EU and neighbouring countries that have had a good relationship for centuries with us . Are the papers trying to create a war going beyond a trade one . If so we will all be losers. 

[The Red Baron]

Admittedly I didn't hear Corbyn's speech and only seen reports, but for me there is a huge difference between  "a customs union" and  "THE Customs Union."

Since the speech seems to point to the former, which is something that will have to be negotiated with the EU, I can't see that Labour's position is that much different to the Government's.

EDIT. This just seems like more cherry-picking to me.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43189878

[Glyn_Wigley]

Admittedly I didn't hear Corbyn's speech and only seen reports, but for me there is a huge difference between  "a customs union" and  "THE Customs Union."

Since the speech seems to point to the former, which is something that will have to be negotiated with the EU, I can't see that Labour's position is that much different to the Government's.

EDIT. This just seems like more cherry-picking to me.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43189878

More political fantasising:

Labour would seek a final deal that gives full access to European markets and maintains the benefits of the single market and the customs union

The only position where they match with the government is that they think all of us out here are thick enough to believe any old PR stunt and swallow their crap.

EDIT: Just to clarify, the only way to avoid a hard border in Ireland is to do away with Customs declarations between the two territories. Only the Single Market does that. A Customs Union - even one with no Customs Duties levied - would still require Customs declarations and physical examinations to ensure those declarations are true. Which is what a hard border is.

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB

I couldn’t agree more. I listened to the speech on the radio whilst working on a report  so I might not have got all the subtleties. But from what I can see, he’s asking for:

1) A bespoke CU that gives us all the benefits of trade with the EU and all the flexibility that we want for external trade.
2) Leaving the SM in terms that leave us no worse off.
3) The right to re-work freedom of movement agreements.
4) Nothing that affects the GFA.

It doesn’t stack up. There are massive internal contradictions in that stance. But it’s not REALLY about Brexit anyway. This is about appealing to current and actual Labour supporters. He’s still in the mode of telling the pro- and anti-Brexit Labour supporters that he’s in both of their sides. Because he needs them both to vote Labour in the General Election that we’re likely to have in the next 12 months.

IF he wins the GE, THEN he’ll have to formulate a credible Brexit strategy. This speech isn’t a credible Brexit strategy. 

[The Red Baron]

TRB

I couldn’t agree more. I listened to the speech on the radio whilst working on a report  so I might not have got all the subtleties. But from what I can see, he’s asking for:

1) A bespoke CU that gives us all the benefits of trade with the EU and all the flexibility that we want for external trade.
2) Leaving the SM in terms that leave us no worse off.
3) The right to re-work freedom of movement agreements.
4) Nothing that affects the GFA.

It doesn’t stack up. There are massive internal contradictions in that stance. But it’s not REALLY about Brexit anyway. This is about appealing to current and actual Labour supporters. He’s still in the mode of telling the pro- and anti-Brexit Labour supporters that he’s in both of their sides. Because he needs them both to vote Labour in the General Election that we’re likely to have in the next 12 months.

IF he wins the GE, THEN he’ll have to formulate a credible Brexit strategy. This speech isn’t a credible Brexit strategy. 

Those bullet points, phrased a little differently, could almost be the same negotiation position as the Government. Except of course the Government will not use the phrases "Customs Union" and "Single Market" directly.

I agree that I think Corbyn may be talking to the Tory "awkward squad" who have been using the same formula around "A customs union." But if he does succeed on forming a Parliamentary majority capable of toppling the Government on this issue (a big if) the problem will then land in Corbyn's own lap.

[tommy toes]

The Corbyn speech and Labour's new position is designed purely to get Tory rebels onside with the aim of bringing down the Maybot and hopefully paving the way for an election this year, with the added bonus of keeping all Labour voters in the fold.
Clever stuff imo whether or not it's a feasible plan with regard to any  Brexit deal.

[Glyn_Wigley]

The Corbyn speech and Labour's new position is designed purely to get Tory rebels onside with the aim of bringing down the Maybot and hopefully paving the way for an election this year, with the added bonus of keeping all Labour voters in the fold.
Clever stuff imo whether or not it's a feasible plan with regard to any  Brexit deal.

The problem is, if I've seen through the complete infeasibility of it in five seconds flat, I won't be the only one. All he's done is made Labour policy as big a fantasy as that of the government.

[The Red Baron]

The Corbyn speech and Labour's new position is designed purely to get Tory rebels onside with the aim of bringing down the Maybot and hopefully paving the way for an election this year, with the added bonus of keeping all Labour voters in the fold.
Clever stuff imo whether or not it's a feasible plan with regard to any  Brexit deal.

I'm sure the prospect of toppling the Government is a major consideration. My point would be, are his rather vague aspirations (which the EU may well reject anyway) enough to persuade the Tory rebels to take the huge step of bringing down their own Government?

A Labour leader promising to stay in the Single Market and THE Customs Union, and/ or promising a second referendum might just persuade the likes of Anna Soubry that a Labour government might be a price worth paying. I'm not sure this is anywhere near enough, because on close analysis it doesn't look a long way from the Government's position.

[wilts rover]

I find it interesting that people think 'being in a customs union' is the same as 'under no circumstances will we be in a customs union', but there you go.

Another major point that came out of the speech today was Corbyn saying he wanted to stay in several European regulatory bodies, Medicines Agency, Aviation Safety Agency which the Tories say we are leaving as they are under ECJ rules.

In my view where the parties are now diverging is that Labour is seeing that having a negotiated deal with Europe is their priority aim, whilst the Tories it is being able to negotiate with the rest of the world which is their aim.

How will it play out in the commons, who knows? How will it play out with Labour Leave voters if there were an election, who knows? But I think we might get to find out later this year.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wilts

The point is, as Corbyn well knows, we’re not going to get a deal that involves:

1) Having a pick and mix Customs Union.
2) Having significant restrictions on freedom of movement.
3) Leaving the Single Market.
4) Having a day in CU/SM decisions affecting Britain.
4) Having an economic result which is at least as beneficial as the status quo ante.

Which is, in a nutshell, what he said his aim was today. He’s still essentially saying that we want all the benefits and none of the things we don’t like. There’s zero chance of the EU agreeing to that. I’m sure he knows that (at least I bloody well hope he knows that because it’s bleeding obvious to anyone who studies the issue in any detail). That’s why I said that this isn’t really a credible Brexit stance.

Yes, of course, the more sensible approach to other European agreements and agencies is infinitely preferable to the idiocy of May’s approach, but that’s a pretty low standard by which to judge anyone.

But as I said before, this isn’t about Brexit. It’s about the next GE and it might well work.

[Ldr]

Wilts

The point is, as Corbyn well knows, we’re not going to get a deal that involves:

1) Having a pick and mix Customs Union.
2) Having significant restrictions on freedom of movement.
3) Leaving the Single Market.
4) Having a day in CU/SM decisions affecting Britain.
4) Having an economic result which is at least as beneficial as the status quo ante.

Which is, in a nutshell, what he said his aim was today. He’s still essentially saying that we want all the benefits and none of the things we don’t like. There’s zero chance of the EU agreeing to that. I’m sure he knows that (at least I bloody well hope he knows that because it’s bleeding obvious to anyone who studies the issue in any detail). That’s why I said that this isn’t really a credible Brexit stance.

Yes, of course, the more sensible approach to other European agreements and agencies is infinitely preferable to the idiocy of May’s approach, but that’s a pretty low standard by which to judge anyone.

But as I said before, this isn’t about Brexit. It’s about the next GE and it might well work.

Political party in spouting popular b*llocks to snare idiots votes shocker. All parties are the same

[BillyStubbsTears]

Ldr

In fairness, both main political parties are in horrendous situations.

Tory supporters are overwhelmingly and vehemently anti-EU. So May has little option (if she wants to remain leader) but to play to that. As does anyone else in the Tory party who has leadership pretensions. Whether May or Johnson or Rees-Mogg or whoever actually understand how economically disastrous a hard Brexit will be is irrelevant. They couldn’t argue for a soft-Brexit anyway because there party would have them.

Corbyn’s situation is even tougher. 1/3rd of Labour supporters are anti-EU. 2/3rds are strongly pro-EU. But he needs all of them to have a chance of winning power. Oh aye,and he himself has been strongly against the EU throughout his political lifetime. But the majority of his Parliamentary colleagues are pro-EU. So, despite having won the leadership as a straight-talking politician with strong beliefs who doesn’t engage in grubby stuff like dissembling and avoiding the core of issues he’s...well, dissembling and avoiding the core issue.

I don’t massively blame either of them. That’s what politics is. It’s not noble. It’s not pure. Unfortunately it IS necessary to act this way if you are going to be able to attain and remain in power to do the things you actually believe in.

[wilts rover]

Aye, and you also attacked Corbyn before as a poor leader because he wouldn't be able to put aside his principles to achieve power....politicians eh.

But of course you are right it is not aimed as negotiating stance to the EU (how could it be, he's not the one in negotiations) but at a domestic audience to show he is a credible leader. The CBI seem to like it, so there you are, Labour the party of business.

I am not so sure that any future GE is a guarantee for Labour tho. There were a lot of leave voters on the radio and tv saying he had betrayed them. He needs to win a few of them round first.

[The Red Baron]

Aye, and you also attacked Corbyn before as a poor leader because he wouldn't be able to put aside his principles to achieve power....politicians eh.

But of course you are right it is not aimed as negotiating stance to the EU (how could it be, he's not the one in negotiations) but at a domestic audience to show he is a credible leader. The CBI seem to like it, so there you are, Labour the party of business.

I am not so sure that any future GE is a guarantee for Labour tho. There were a lot of leave voters on the radio and tv saying he had betrayed them. He needs to win a few of them round first.

I wouldn't take much notice of the CBI. In the same breath they were quick to confirm that they are anti-Nationalization.

I agree with your last point though. If you held a GE tomorrow, or I'll venture any time in 2018, the result is likely to be a Hung Parliament. The only question would be who has most seats.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wilts

Aye. I called it wrong didn’t I? I was assuming all this New Politics stuff where people said what they really meant and took the people with them was genuine. I didn’t realise Corbyn had it in him to be Harold Wilson.

[The Red Baron]

Ldr

In fairness, both main political parties are in horrendous situations.

Tory supporters are overwhelmingly and vehemently anti-EU. So May has little option (if she wants to remain leader) but to play to that. As does anyone else in the Tory party who has leadership pretensions. Whether May or Johnson or Rees-Mogg or whoever actually understand how economically disastrous a hard Brexit will be is irrelevant. They couldn’t argue for a soft-Brexit anyway because there party would have them.

Corbyn’s situation is even tougher. 1/3rd of Labour supporters are anti-EU. 2/3rds are strongly pro-EU. But he needs all of them to have a chance of winning power. Oh aye,and he himself has been strongly against the EU throughout his political lifetime. But the majority of his Parliamentary colleagues are pro-EU. So, despite having won the leadership as a straight-talking politician with strong beliefs who doesn’t engage in grubby stuff like dissembling and avoiding the core of issues he’s...well, dissembling and avoiding the core issue.

I don’t massively blame either of them. That’s what politics is. It’s not noble. It’s not pure. Unfortunately it IS necessary to act this way if you are going to be able to attain and remain in power to do the things you actually believe in.

BST

I think if Jeremy Corbyn's speech has performed one useful purpose, it is to demonstrate that there isn't a Soft Brexit, at least not one that is acceptable to the EU Commission and to the UK.

I do think the EU could live with a UK position where we remain members of the SM and CU, but give up our voting rights. In other words, the Norway position. I don't think that any party could sell that on the doorstep, because it's a worse deal than we have now.

The only alternative is a Hard Brexit, on WTO terms and all the implications for the Irish border. And because the Government believed they could achieve a bespoke deal, which is basically what Labour now also wants, they have not prepared for. That was a critical mistake IMO.

Unfortunately for Brexiteers, and this is a key point, the people with whom we are negotiating don't particularly care if Volkswagen can't sell their cars to us Brits after March 2019. Basically, they are determined to protect the EU as a political project at all costs and the fact that Germany has no Government plays into their hands perfectly. We basically have three options:

1. Stay in on the same terms.
2. Norway option - membership of SM and CU but no voting rights.
3. Hard Brexit.

None of those particularly appeal to me, I have to say.

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB

I’d say it’s a bit more nuanced/complex than that.

Given the choice between a Hard Brexit and a Soft Brexit as you describe it, I’d hazard a guess that there'd be a 60/40 majority in the country in favour of that. The 60 being made up of the 48% who voted Remain plus a group of Leavers who didn’t think they were voting to make themselves significantly worse off into the far distant future. What there absolutely isn’t and never was is a majority in the country for a Hard Brexit.

Problem is, neither main party can win power on that Soft Brexit case. Tories obviously. Labour because it has a small rump if Hard Brexit supporters. The 60% that I suggestceoukd support Soft Brexit are spread between lots of parties - maybe 40% of them Labour voters, 8% LD, 8% Soubry-type Tories and the rest SNP supporters.

So there’s no way we could get a Soft Brexit that:
-is acceptable to the EU
-avoids the worst economic consequences and
-could get either main party elected.

So the main parties insist on pushing lines that either will hammer us economically or just simply can’t happen in reality.

What a f**king mess eh?

[Donnywolf]

It really IS a total mess - and I say that as one who Voted "Remain"

I think that a lot of Leave voters probably feel the same way but cant speak for them. They might feel it is messy and much too slow but it could never be acted upon "the next day" as they will now understand (and probably most knew that at the time of voting)

Wish someone would ask the woman seen on TV when the result was announced (and often still seen) celebrating on someones shoulders dressed in a Red T Shirt how she feels now. Will the wait be worth it - are things going as she hoped etc etc

Ultmimately history will judge whether "we" went the right way in the Vote and the negotiations that followed and it will be long long after I have gone

[Not Now Kato]

I fear that a lot of leave voters are completely aware that leaving is now proving to be a bad idea but are too afraid of looking stupid to admit it. Which makes them the more stupid in the end as it's themselves and their families they will be hurting by their stance.
 
When I hear leavers saying such things as "yes, it's going to be bad for a while, but we're British, we'll get through it", without a clue as to how we'll get through it or what it will be like on the other side; then I really do feel for the future of my grandchildren as it's quite apparent that these people don't care about the future for theirs.
 
What did Sir Martin Donnely say... Brexit is like giving up a 3 course meal for the promise of a packet of crisps....  I don’t think he's far wrong either, but I do wonder how many of those leave voters will enjoy their crisps.

[Glyn_Wigley]

What did Sir Martin Donnely say... Brexit is like giving up a 3 course meal for the promise of a packet of crisps....  I don’t think he's far wrong either, but I do wonder how many of those leave voters will enjoy their crisps.

They'll say but at least we get to choose what flavour crisps we have and that's more important than having a full belly.

[Bentley Bullet]

According to some, it's going to be that bad we're gonna need food banks.

[Not Now Kato]

What did Sir Martin Donnely say... Brexit is like giving up a 3 course meal for the promise of a packet of crisps....  I don’t think he's far wrong either, but I do wonder how many of those leave voters will enjoy their crisps.

They'll say but at least we get to choose what flavour crisps we have and that's more important than having a full belly.

Until the only choice is plain or salt & vinegar; then we'll see some right whining!

[BillyStubbsTears]

Breaking news!

Liam Fox’s brain explodes as he tries to make a rational case for leaving the Customs Union.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/02/27/brexit-bulletin-fox-doesnt-quaver-crisp-customs-row/amp/

[wilts rover]

I'll see your Liam Fox and raise it with Boris Johnson believing the Irish border is like the London congestion charge zone!
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/boris-johnson_uk_5a952465e4b02cb368c56016?utm_hp_ref=uk-homepage

[BillyStubbsTears]

This is beyond parody.

This!
https://www.liamfox.co.uk/news/dr-fox-mail-sunday

From Liam Fox’s own bleeding website!

An article of his from 2012. Get past the throwaway comments on why he hates the EU (because the evil bas**rds insist on regulations to protect workers against exploration and to reduce pollution).

Go to the fourth last paragraph and see what he says, on his own website, is the sort of relationship that we should have with the EU.

[Glyn_Wigley]

I'll see your Liam Fox and raise it with Boris Johnson believing the Irish border is like the London congestion charge zone!
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/boris-johnson_uk_5a952465e4b02cb368c56016?utm_hp_ref=uk-homepage

f**k me, he'll explode when the Irish put border checks on their side of the frontier...or does he think they'll not bother for some reason?