Brexit Negotiations

[Glyn_Wigley]

Yep, it's Hillsborough all over again. I hope it does them just as much good.

[Not Now Kato]

If Churchill was alive today he'd be turning in his grave.

Despite the idiomatic nature of that statement, you do realise that Churchill was a firm believer in the EU, and indeed a 'United States of Europe', don't you?
 
Here's his Zurich speech of 1946.  http://www.goldmercury.org/news-and-multimedia/winston-churchills-united-states-of-europe/   It is well worth taking the time to listen/read it as it's as true today as it was back in 1946.
 
Given his firm beliefs and what is happening in respect of BREXIT I rather suspect he's turning in his grave right now!
 

[SydneyRover]

So there are no excuses now about not knowing what's around the corner, it's a sledge hammer ready to smack British trade. Hands up those that are happy to accept a lower standard of living.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/mar/06/brexit-david-davis-eu-scrutiny-committee-eu-firms-more-worried-about-protecting-single-market-than-maintaini

[hoolahoop]

Bentley Bullet and Filo perhaps as they are dedicated   disciples of Brexit, Rees- Mogg and the Sun  , once I would have said Sprotyrover but the penny seems to have dropped judging by recent posts - welcome to Project Reality .

The Project that keeps on giving ......or perhaps takes away !

[Filo]

Bentley Bullet and Filo perhaps as they are dedicated   disciples of Brexit, Rees- Mogg and the Sun  , once I would have said Sprotyrover but the penny seems to have dropped judging by recent posts - welcome to Project Reality .

The Project that keeps on giving ......or perhaps takes away !

I would n't wipe my arse with the Sun, and Rees- Mogg is a cock, but it's the insulting jibes like yours that sometimes harden peoples stance, you can't make a post without having a pop because someone disagrees with you

[hoolahoop]

Bentley Bullet and Filo perhaps as they are dedicated   disciples of Brexit, Rees- Mogg and the Sun  , once I would have said Sprotyrover but the penny seems to have dropped judging by recent posts - welcome to Project Reality .

The Project that keeps on giving ......or perhaps takes away !

I would n't wipe my arse with the Sun, and Rees- Mogg is a cock, but it's the insulting jibes like yours that sometimes harden peoples stance, you can't make a post without having a pop because someone disagrees with you

Why harden your stance in the face of an incoming torrent of crap coming our way . If and only if you lot conceeded just the smallest point now and again as we do when we point out the weaknesses in the EU project constantly ; then and only then would I stop making comments backed up with evidence after evidence that goes ignored .
That's not abuse , that's merely pointing out the damage that Leaving and advocating leaving is doing to this country.
Filo why are  you " insulted " by my post , I have merely called you a disciple of Leave and Smug . I grant that I shouldn't have associated you with that disgusting rag that is pumping out Leave propaganda and blatant lies daily. It could have been worse I could have made you guilty by association with the Express/ Mail or Telegraph !

Incidentally you have made " having a pop at someone " into an artform over the years .

[Sprotyrover]

Don't count me in Hoola I would vote out of Europe I there was another vote,

[selby]

   Hoola, a serious question, do you think that the country as a whole (England and Wales that is) voted out because of immigration as the main reason, or the fact that whole swaiths of the country felt they were being left behind  by the south east corner of Britain, that was benefiting from cross channel links and their close proximity to the continent.
   The closing of major employers, the lack of investment, the lack of infrastructure, the centralising of most things towards London and the south east, caused more resentment than immigration. And it is still happening at every level, from sports facilities, transport, and money per head being invested in communities.
   That is your problem for people voting to leave, they are being left behind, and you will not change their mind, in fact because of the EUs leaders aloofness and preaching to the British people by unelected bureaucrats, the leave lobby will get stronger.
   And do not discount people like myself who voted to stay, but if an unlikely second vote were cast would now vote out on principle.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Selby

I’m sure it’s a combination of people feeling left behind in some cases and concerns about immigration in other cases. I said back in 2010 when Austerity started that this was a very dangerous game. Depressing people’s living standards for a long time does make people, understandably, want to hit out. It’s happened throughout history and it was utterly predictable.

But I’m baffled by you saying that you’d now vote Leave out of principle. What principle is that? Surely you accept that all the main arguments put forward by the Leave campaign have been shown to be based on lies? No one credible now claims that we’re going to be better off. The very head of the Leave campaign has gone on record stating that the £350m lie was central to Leave winning. The economic hit that the Remain side predicted is already happening. Our economic growth has fallen behind that of almost every developed country since June 2016, with the rest of the world enjoying a boom. Inflation has gone up, as predicted. The Irish problem has proved to be every bit as tough as the Remain side predicted. The Govt has said that there is not going to be a substantive change to immigration policies over the foreseeable future.

What principle would you be defending by changing your vote?

[Bentley Bullet]

Bentley Bullet and Filo perhaps as they are dedicated   disciples of Brexit, Rees- Mogg and the Sun  , once I would have said Sprotyrover but the penny seems to have dropped judging by recent posts - welcome to Project Reality .

The Project that keeps on giving ......or perhaps takes away !

Hoolahoop. If the above post is an indication of your judgement there's no wonder why some people would suspect your opinions are open to scrutiny.

[Sprotyrover]

Selby

I’m sure it’s a combination of people feeling left behind in some cases and concerns about immigration in other cases. I said back in 2010 when Austerity started that this was a very dangerous game. Depressing people’s living standards for a long time does make people, understandably, want to hit out. It’s happened throughout history and it was utterly predictable.

But I’m baffled by you saying that you’d now vote Leave out of principle. What principle is that? Surely you accept that all the main arguments put forward by the Leave campaign have been shown to be based on lies? No one credible now claims that we’re going to be better off. The very head of the Leave campaign has gone on record stating that the £350m lie was central to Leave winning. The economic hit that the Remain side predicted is already happening. Our economic growth has fallen behind that of almost every developed country since June 2016, with the rest of the world enjoying a boom. Inflation has gone up, as predicted. The Irish problem has proved to be every bit as tough as the Remain side predicted. The Govt has said that there is not going to be a substantive change to immigration policies over the foreseeable future.

What principle would you be defending by changing your vote?

Are they enjoying a boom! In Italy?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Sproty

Relative to us, yes they are. Their recent, current and projected near-future GDP growth figures are all higher than ours.

[Bentley Bullet]

Is there any positivity to be taken from this?

https://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2018/01/economist-explains-8

[wilts rover]

Is there any positivity to be taken from this?

https://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2018/01/economist-explains-8

What this bit:
The question is whether this unexpectedly good performance can continue. As Britain’s departure from the EU in March 2019 nears, businesses may start to get more jittery, especially if they fear that a deal with the EU will not be reached. If investment spending is cut, then consumers will eventually start to feel the pinch. And Brexit itself, which is likely to leave Britain with severely reduced access to its largest export market, will have profoundly negative long-term economic consequences. For now, however, the British economy continues to sail blissfully into the unknown.

[Bentley Bullet]

There you go in typical fashion Mr Wilts. I asked if there were any positives to be taken from the article and you responded by taking the one paragraph warning about a possible negative scenario!

[wilts rover]

OK then Bentley. What the article says is that there hasn't yet been any dangerous fallout from Brexit but as the exit date gets closer and no deal with the EU has been reached there is a real fear of severe economic consequences ahead.

Now you tell me what the positives from that are.

[Bentley Bullet]

Wilts, what are your views on the positive statements such as house prices are steady, unemployment has dropped, recession has been avoided?

[BillyStubbsTears]

BB

Yes there is a big positive to be taken from it. I’ve mentioned it several times in here but you never respond which makes me think you’re not really that interested in discussing this, just scoring points and ignoring well-considered arguments on the other side. I’ll mention it again and I’ve no doubt that you’ll ignore it again.

The big positive is mentioned in that article. It is that the entire world economy is experiencing an economic boom. Most developed countries have seen their economic growth surge over the past 2 years. Ours has slipped.

http://www.oecd.org/economy/gdp-growth-third-quarter-2017-oecd.htm

Year-on-year GDP growth for the OECD area accelerated to 2.6% in the third quarter of 2017, compared with 2.4% in the previous quarter. The United Kingdom recorded the slowest growth (1.5%) among the Major Seven economies, slipping from second highest in mid-2016.

Our GDP growth is now 1.1% lower than the OECD average. That equates to us losing about £20bn per year of potential wealth. And it compounds. If it doesn’t improve (and no predictions expect it to) then by the end of this year we’ll have lost £60bn. By the end of next year £120bn.

So the Economist writer is being a bit disingenuous when he says

The global economy has also helped. The Brexit vote coincided with the beginning of the first worldwide economic upswing in years. Global trade volumes have grown decently, despite Donald Trump’s scary rhetoric. Firms from Seattle to Shanghai have recovered some of their animal spirits and are willing to invest once again. Britain, an economy highly dependent on international trade, has been swept along with everyone else.

What he ought to say is that we’ve been swept along much less vigorously than everyone else. And if he was being a proper investigative journalist, he probably ought to spend a bit of time wondering what big issue may have led to us slipping from 2nd to 7th in the Big Seven economic performance over the past 2 years. I wonder what could have caused that?

So, yes, there is some very good news. The global boom is saving us from the worst consequences of our own stupidity. Without it, we’d be teetering on the edge of a recession. But booms never last. Eventually the downturn comes. What you make in the boom insulates you from the worst of the downturn. Problem is, we’re not getting the boom. But we’ll be swept along in the downturn like everyone else.

[wilts rover]

Wilts, what are your views on the positive statements such as house prices are steady, unemployment has dropped, recession has been avoided?

I am happy about it (although the stats last week about the fall in house price and all the job losses since Christmas are worrying). What are your views Bentley on the author's opinion that those measures and the economy in general is at risk by an no deal Brexit?

[Sprotyrover]

Sproty

Relative to us, yes they are. Their recent, current and projected near-future GDP growth figures are all higher than ours.

Oh dear things are bad for us then as all the data I have seen shows 0% growth in Italy over the past 20 years and currently 33% of all Italians under the age of 30 are long term unemployed.
Plus they are plagued with mass illegal immigration from the south,things are that good that 50 % of the voters voted for right wing parties.

Der Graf Von Billy lis very prone to mistakes in accuracy of information!

[Bentley Bullet]

Wilts, what are your views on the positive statements such as house prices are steady, unemployment has dropped, recession has been avoided?

I am happy about it (although the stats last week about the fall in house price and all the job losses since Christmas are worrying). What are your views Bentley on the author's opinion that those measures and the economy in general is at risk by an no deal Brexit?

Wilts, I think the author is right to declare there is a possibility that the economy is at risk. There is bound to be uncertainty in the future as the British economy continues to sail "blissfully into the unknown".

[BillyStubbsTears]

Sproty.

I’ve never denied how awful things have been in Italy over the past 20 years. I’ve seen the effects first hand in my wife’s family. That’s what happens when you elect a self-serving prick like Berlusconi as PM...

But back to what I was actually talking about which was the “recent, current and projected near-future GDP growth“.

Before 2016, Italy’s annual GDP growth rate was typically <1%. Ours was a little above 2%.

For 2017, ours had dropped to 1.5% while Italy’s had risen to 1.7%.

So the global boom has been so strong that even a long term basket case like Italy is seeing improved growth. Whereas our growth rate is falling away. And the projections are that their growth will remain stronger than ours over the next couple of years at least.

And PS. If you’re going to accuse someone of getting facts wrong, it usually helps to address what they are actually talking about, not what you want them to be talking about.)

[wilts rover]

I agree with your points there Bentley. Do you also agree with the author when the say that Brexit will have profoundly negative long-term economic consequences? It's the same conclusion that the governments own impact assessments came to btw.

[Bentley Bullet]

I agree that it could have profoundly negative long-term consequences. I couldn't argue otherwise because we are sailing into the unknown.

[BillyStubbsTears]

BB

So surely the sensible thing to do is to listen to experts who devote their lives to analysing macro economic issues and who have a consistent track record of getting predictions right?

Surely you don’t manage your personal finances on the principle that the future is unknowable so any possible decision is as valid as any other one?

[Bentley Bullet]

Experts in the unknown? Do you mean as in most economists getting it wrong when they believed that a recession was imminent?

I did listen to them! That's why I voted remain!

[BillyStubbsTears]

BB

And so we go round the hamster wheel again.

Our GDP growth rate has dropped by about 1% since the Brexit vote. The growth rate of the other OECD countries has risen by over 1%. Had the rest of the world not experienced a boom and led to an unexpected increase in global economic activity from which we have benefitted, we WOULD have slipped into recession.

You’re not thick, but this now must be 5 or 6 times that I’ve made this point to you and you’ve never once addressed it. You just come back with variations on the same argument every time.

You’re really not thick but you are doing a good job of trying to convince me that you are so I’ll break it down into really simple steps.

1) Before June 2016, the overwhelming majority of economists predicted that a Brexit vote would lead to a significant weakening in economic performance compared to that of other countries.

2) The given the then state of the world economy, the conclusion was that we would therefore tip into recession.

3) After the Brexit vote we’ve had a significant weakening in economic performance. Our GDP growth rate has dropped by about 1% compared to what it was in early 2016 whilst the growth rate in EVERY OTHER one of the OECD Big 7 has increased and average OECD growth rate has gone up by about 1%.

4) The fact that the world economy (apart from us) is hitting a boom has prevented us from tipping into outright recession.

5) But, our economy which was doing reasonably well in 2015/16 now has a growth rate which is 41st out of the 44 richest countries in the world.

6) Consequently, whilst we’re not in a technical recession, we are missing out on the boom that the rest of the world is experiencing and we are getting progressively poorer compared to almost every other developed nation in the world. Just as the economists predicted we would.

[Sprotyrover]

BB

And so we go round the hamster wheel again.

Our GDP growth rate has dropped by about 1% since the Brexit vote. The growth rate of the other OECD countries has risen by over 1%. Had the rest of the world not experienced a boom and led to an unexpected increase in global economic activity from which we have benefitted, we WOULD have slipped into recession.

You’re not thick, but this now must be 5 or 6 times that I’ve made this point to you and you’ve never once addressed it. You just come back with variations on the same argument every time.

You’re really not thick but you are doing a good job of trying to convince me that you are so I’ll break it down into really simple steps.

1) Before June 2016, the overwhelming majority of economists predicted that a Brexit vote would lead to a significant weakening in economic performance compared to that of other countries.

2) The given the then state of the world economy, the conclusion was that we would therefore tip into recession.

3) After the Brexit vote we’ve had a significant weakening in economic performance. Our GDP growth rate has dropped by about 1% compared to what it was in early 2016 whilst the growth rate in EVERY OTHER one of the OECD Big 7 has increased and average OECD growth rate has gone up by about 1%.

4) The fact that the world economy (apart from us) is hitting a boom has prevented us from tipping into outright recession.

5) But, our economy which was doing reasonably well in 2015/16 now has a growth rate which is 41st out of the 44 richest countries in the world.

6) Consequently, whilst we’re not in a technical recession, we are missing out on the boom that the rest of the world is experiencing and we are getting progressively poorer compared to almost every other developed nation in the world. Just as the economists predicted we would.

All of you doom and gloom pals had predicted we would disappear down the pan and that it would happen months ago. When we leave we will see the EEC in turmoil the gaping hole left in their budget won't get fixed, Italy the 8 th largest economy in the world will be their undoing. How the crisis in illegal immigration pans out will have a direct effect on the other members, Policing that Southern region will cost hundreds of billions, don't be surprised to see a Right wing government in Germany within the next few years. It's not about economics it's about the politics of uncertainty.
I really believe Cameron and co saw it coming and that's why they pushed this somewhat bizarre agenda with gusto.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Gaping hole in the EU budget? Even by your standards of overinflating our importance, that’s a spectacularly daft comment.

Our net contribution for 2017 according to the ONS works out at about £8bn.

The GDP of the EU minus the U.K. was about £12trillion.

So our contribution was about 0.06-0.07% of the EU’s total output.

Put it another way, our contribution equates to about half the price of a packet of chewing gum per week for every person in the EU. (Population of EU minus UK is about 450million. £8bn/450million/52 week=34p per person per week.)

Put it yet another way, since the Brexit vote, the EU economy has grown by about 0.5% per year faster than ours. That 0.5% per year over 21 months equates to about 13 times our annual net contribution. (0.5% x £12tr x 21/12 = £105bn.) Just from the extra growth that they’ve had over and above our economy.

I suspect they’ll cope.

[selby]

  Billy, the whole country had been lied to by Cameron, Clegg, and Osborne for eight years, all while they had a great smug smile on their face, and rubbed everyone else's face in the proverbial, especially the areas in the  midlands, the north, Wales,  and south west, all areas where there were large majorities for out.
  That was the real reason for the out vote, not the easy target bus, that is a bigger issue now than when the voting process started. the die was cast long before then. Plus the out side had a much better platform, put their argument across better, and debated better in the media. 
  All that in spite of the remain side spending millions more in advertising and getting backing from the government with pamphlets through the post etc. and noises from Brussels.
  They lost a referendum vote, I lost, you lost, we only get one chance, we were told and it was to be a binding vote. Everyone was informed  of this before the vote. It is time some people, such as Saubry, and Clegg who spouted contempt of the great uneducated minutes after the result, and in so doing alienated even more people, stopped carping on and on, and accepted this fact, something they were quite willing to accept before the vote, not contemplating they would lose until the last minute, and were gobsmacked at how far the electorate had moved away from them.
   The government leaders, and the so called political elite were miles off the mark. They and they alone are responsible for this situation, not the Brexiteers who voted, and it was their lies over a long period, while being seen to feather their own nests, resulted in the out vote, not that bloody bus excuse.