Brexit Negotiations

[wilts rover]

Do you know what we need Billy? We need someone with some B0llocks. Someone like Winnie. Not Winnie the Pooh (Corbyn), Winnie the Churchill.

A man who was in favour of a United States of Europe? (which I'm fairly sure has actually been pointed out and ignored further back in the thread).

I was thinking more of the man who had some boll0cks and who would never surrender to unfair demands, even in a United States of Europe.

Sorry Bentley but just for clarity which unfair demands are you referring to?

[Metalmicky]

Metalmicky.

It's comments like that why we're in the mess we're in*. The fact you display an unfaltering faith that you have the ability to predict the future of a Corbyn government but a complete absence of faith in the future predictions of experts. It displays a failure of people in my profession (academia) to engage, and displays a complete lack of understanding on your part on what 'experts' are. They aren't a sea of individuals making stabs in the dark about the future (in fact, when they do they get called out heavily). It works on things like consensus, collaborative work, rigour, peer-review, extremely stringent ethical procedures, criticism, an enduring openness, and an often unrewarding motivation to analyse things that others don't.

IF you want to disregard and disrespect those things in society then let me tell you we will be a lot poorer, rather than your stab in the dark about Corbyn. But as someone who also worked briefly in the civil service for one of the UK governments, let me tell you 99% of all policies are thankfully taken on evidence and reason and following the guidance of experts.

Your last sentence about becoming 'richer as nation', it's hard for me to comprehend how a crazy vote that's split the nation bang down the middle and created enduring rifts is, or will make us, any richer.


* And by mess I partly mean brexit but also the austerity killing public services and leaving large sections of this country behind the SE

You don't have to flag me up to spout your political propaganda mate.  I have my opinions and in a democracy I'm entitled to say it as I see it - IMO JC is not a leader this country needs and his diminishing popularity shows this.... For the record I'm ex forces - which might also give you a hint as to why I dislike JC so much

And don't patronize me about your high end opinion of experts mate. I am in no way stating they are baloney - merely pointing out that there are differing opinions - from different experts - who all claim to know the future.  The same so called experts failed to see the 2007/8 financial crisis and many denied it could happen....  and similar experts failed to see JC's influence on the last election - and yet he proved many wrong...

I won't mention the civil service - other than I have and do work with plenty of them, and many struggle to form a joint consensus, let alone come up with a formed decision.  I'm not saying that the team you worked in were of a similar ilk btw... 

I think you'll find that the 'crazy' vote you refer to wasn't 'bang down the middle'.  I say that as we appear to be in the process of exiting the EU - unless of course you have had a team of experts check out those stats and come out with a different result...?

FTR, I don't exactly agree with how Theresa May is handling the countries affairs either - we all have opinions and none of us are experts.......even if they try and push their opinions on you.   

[Metalmicky]

The last thing I want is to see JC in No 10..... now that would be a calamity for the country. 

Nobody really knows how Britain will fair post Brexit and if you rolled out 100 'experts' you would inevitably find they all had differing opinions - and therefore many would be wrong. 

Brexit may mean that we will all be poorer in monetary terms, but perhaps we will become richer as a nation...

100 economists? Pah! How about 639?

That’s the number that we’re polled a month before the vote. Here’s what they said.

https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/economists-views-brexit

88% of them said that a Leave vote would lead to a hit in the economy over the subsequent 5 years. We’re nearly 2 years into that 5 years and it’s panning out just like they said.

I am genuinely astonished where this near-hatred for expert opinion comes from. They HAVE called it right and there AREN’T major difference of opinion amongst them.  Why are people so determined to ignore this?

I haven't got the time (or inclination) to have a bun fight with you.... however, for the purposes of showing a balanced view - which are not necessarily mine either - there are other viewpoints out there...

https://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2018/01/economist-explains-8

and it's a post brexit article...

[Bentley Bullet]

Do you know what we need Billy? We need someone with some B0llocks. Someone like Winnie. Not Winnie the Pooh (Corbyn), Winnie the Churchill.

A man who was in favour of a United States of Europe? (which I'm fairly sure has actually been pointed out and ignored further back in the thread).

I was thinking more of the man who had some boll0cks and who would never surrender to unfair demands, even in a United States of Europe.

Sorry Bentley but just for clarity which unfair demands are you referring to?

Wilts, I don't know whether or not there have been any. I haven't been present in the talks! I reckon there's a possibility that there could be unfair demands though, such as silly settlement figures, if we had a weak negotiator.

 I said Winnie (The Churchill) wouldn't put up with any of that, and his sheer presence would have deterred any attempts to do so.

[BillyStubbsTears]

MM

Yeah, BB posted that link the other day.

Given that the article is anonymous, it’s impossible to tell whether it’s written by an economist, a journalist or whoever. But there’s a couple of things in it, a couple of big things that make me think the writer is trying to...let’s say, be economical with the...ahh, f**k it, no, let’s call a spade a spade: bullshit the reader.

1) The article itself says that we’ve been pulled along by a stronger than expected global economy. But, that we’ve slipped down the world growth rankings. What it doesn’t say is that we’ve slipped from 1st in the G7 in 2015 to 6th (and about to go 7th and bottom) of the G7. That’s quite a slip.

2) In the very same sentence he says, “but growth in both 2016 and 2017 still averaged around 2%, roughly similar to 2015.“

That’s a bit naughty.

Here’s the Office for National Statistics figures for those three years.

2015: 2.3%
2016: 1.9%
2017: 1.7%

So he gives the impression that we’ve sailed on through 2016-17 just like we were in 2015. In fact, that dip, just in those two years cost us about £25bn.

And if the writer was really looking to inform readers rather than bullshit them, he’d have gone on to write that GDP growth is expected to stay below 1.5% for the next 5 years, while Germany, France, USA, Canada etc are having growth twice as strong as that.

I’m not interested in a bunfight MM. I just don’t like seeing people being hoodwinked. If you take your cue from that article and use it to think that there hasn’t been a profoundly negative Brexit effect already, you’re being hoodwinked.

[BillyStubbsTears]

BB

Trouble is, Churchill was f**king useless when it came to issues relating to the economy, business and finance. His term at the Treasury was one of the most catastrophic of the 20th century. So I’m not sure I’d put a right lot of faith in him to know his arse from his elbow in negotiations about our future economic relations with Europe.

[Copps is Magic]

MM, I could write a long response addressing point by point but won't in the interest of it not degenerating.

It's very much the opposite mate, any 'expert' in their field who tightly follows the principles I listed in my first post will not be making predictions about the future. They very much deal with the past because that's where the evidence comes from.

I'm getting the impression that what you imagine is there is 100 experts in a room and a certain percentage will be saying different things to the rest and therefore you should by cynical of the whole lot? But that's really not how it works either, it works on consensus; paradigms that they all broadly agree on barring the fine points.

Part of the problem is this figure of the 'expert' created by the media is filled by the kind of the ideologically driven 'research' that people like David Keighley (few pages earlier) produce. You're never gunna hear a reasoned expert discussing the pros and cons because they don't want it.

on the civil service - as a young man I was probably very much anti-bureaucracy but as I get older I increasingly find myself thinking thank f**k they are there.

[Bentley Bullet]

BB

Trouble is, Churchill was f**king useless when it came to issues relating to the economy, business and finance. His term at the Treasury was one of the most catastrophic of the 20th century. So I’m not sure I’d put a right lot of faith in him to know his arse from his elbow in negotiations about our future economic relations with Europe.

Is that why he was in favour of a United States of Europe? 

[BillyStubbsTears]

He was in favour of it for the very reason that the EEC and eventually the EU came into being. As a way of taming and directing the imperial forces in Germany. As in most things though, Churchill wasn’t much cop when it came to the details. And details are very much what the discussions with the EU are all about.

Details like how we are going to sort out the Irish border. Remember Gove and Johnson saying it would be an easy one to solve and calling people who said otherwise troublemakers and prophets of doom? They are keeping that plan well under wraps aren’t they?

[wilts rover]

Wilts, I don't know whether or not there have been any. I haven't been present in the talks! I reckon there's a possibility that there could be unfair demands though, such as silly settlement figures, if we had a weak negotiator.

 I said Winnie (The Churchill) wouldn't put up with any of that, and his sheer presence would have deterred any attempts to do so.

Sorry Bentley I hadn't read far enough down the thread when I posted my question as I see you answered it further on.

The thing about Churchill as a negotiator during WW2 (its best to ignore most of the rest of his career) is he knew what was achievable and when to compromise - even if it was unpopular with the British public.
https://www.winstonchurchill.org/publications/finest-hour/finest-hour-123/teaching-the-next-generations-the-bermuda-essays-churchill-s-art-of-negotiation/

[Bentley Bullet]

Sorry Wilts. Perhaps I should have gone into more detail in my desire for a Churchill type negotiator. I was referring more to the size of his boll0cks than his brain.

[Glyn_Wigley]

The only negotiations I can remember Churchill being personally involved in were the wartime ones with the US and USSR. I can only imagine just how grateful eastern Europe was for where the size of his b*llocks left them after his negotiations with Stalin.

[hoolahoop]

I reckon Churchill wouldn't have stood for any demands he deemed unfair even if he had taken us into a United States of Europe, and he would conduct Brexit talks in the same way.

As far as BBC bias, do you watch Question Time?

Yes I do religiously and pull my hair out at the consistent audience and panel bias for Leave . Even in a heavily Remain constituency area we seem to have the same old rabid Brexiters shouting down those Remainers even prepared to put their head up over the parapet.
It makes me seethe with anger to see " big hitters " from the Leave side pitted against " weak at best" Remainers on his selected panel. Week after week we get this , last week was a perfect example where in a heavy Remain constituency of Westminster - they barely discussed Brexit .

I take it you look at the carefully crafted but  hugely biased vids on the Express/ Mail online to cement this impression in your mind further. They are wholly unrepresentative of the debate in general and infuriating .
Finally what annoys me most is that you see it as a pro- Remain programme is the propaganda online in the Mail/ Express etc that effective ?

[Metalmicky]

MM, I could write a long response addressing point by point but won't in the interest of it not degenerating.

It's very much the opposite mate, any 'expert' in their field who tightly follows the principles I listed in my first post will not be making predictions about the future. They very much deal with the past because that's where the evidence comes from.

I'm getting the impression that what you imagine is there is 100 experts in a room and a certain percentage will be saying different things to the rest and therefore you should by cynical of the whole lot? But that's really not how it works either, it works on consensus; paradigms that they all broadly agree on barring the fine points.

Part of the problem is this figure of the 'expert' created by the media is filled by the kind of the ideologically driven 'research' that people like David Keighley (few pages earlier) produce. You're never gunna hear a reasoned expert discussing the pros and cons because they don't want it.

on the civil service - as a young man I was probably very much anti-bureaucracy but as I get older I increasingly find myself thinking thank f**k they are there.

I guess it's how we define 'expert'.  As BST said within his earlier post - where he states that of 639 economists (I'm guessing experts in their field..?) 88% of them had said that a Leave vote would lead to a hit in the economy - my point was that a similar band of experts had failed to predict the 2007/8 financial crisis... in fact some suggested it couldn't happen - how is this possible given their collective expertise?

I think we should digest what these 'experts' say, but not go 'all in' based on their thoughts and predictions - after all 'experts' are still people and also have individual thoughts and opinions... aren't they?

[hoolahoop]

 "Corbyn will not win a majority when the next election comes. Not a chance in hell. He would need SNP and/or LD support to get into No. 10.

Go figure."

It is currently impossible for Labour or Corbyn to ever run the country without support from the SNP / Lib/Dems/ Greens  so I wonder at which stage do Labour reach out to other Opposition Parties , choose the best suited  Party to fight the Tories in each and every constituency and form an electoral pact . It is no good  any of the above taking a relaxed and selfish attitude to the next election otherwise they will get buried alive . The system is now stacked against Labour and it's impossible to achieve 50 % or more of the seats in England and Wales . The ONLY way they can ever be in power over the next decade or so is with the help of the smaller parties . Hopefully Corbyn wont insist on fighting every seat where Labour are in a weak 3rd or even 4th place as he did in the last 2 elections . The Opposition HAS to work in concert despite their obvious differences . The weaker Parties have got to get it together or we will have a rabid far right Tory Party in power for generations to come . That on top of the costs of Brexit will spell doom for the weak , the poor  and for ALL regions outside of London and the South- East . Someone has to pay for this Clusterf**k.

[Bentley Bullet]

I reckon Churchill wouldn't have stood for any demands he deemed unfair even if he had taken us into a United States of Europe, and he would conduct Brexit talks in the same way.

As far as BBC bias, do you watch Question Time?

Yes I do religiously and pull my hair out at the consistent audience and panel bias for Leave . Even in a heavily Remain constituency area we seem to have the same old rabid Brexiters shouting down those Remainers even prepared to put their head up over the parapet.
It makes me seethe with anger to see " big hitters " from the Leave side pitted against " weak at best" Remainers on his selected panel. Week after week we get this , last week was a perfect example where in a heavy Remain constituency of Westminster - they barely discussed Brexit .

I take it you look at the carefully crafted but  hugely biased vids on the Express/ Mail online to cement this impression in your mind further. They are wholly unrepresentative of the debate in general and infuriating .
Finally what annoys me most is that you see it as a pro- Remain programme is the propaganda online in the Mail/ Express etc that effective ?

Yet again, Hoola, you take it wrong.

[hoolahoop]

It never ceases to amaze me what a bright bunch of people we have amongst us when reading through the 39 pages of debate we have had on this subject and on a football forum too.

I guess others , like me, have gained more information from this thread than watching hours of pre and post Brexit debate on the television . Facts , figures, opinions from opposite sides of the debate make this thread " the thread of ALL Off Topic " threads and a ' must go to ' daily fix .
I think that this thread has hopefully benefited others as it has me, I now understand what in practise enables the Brexit mind to dream of a bright future filled with prancing unicorns in England's green and pleasant land . I have learnt that you can trade outside the EU ( see German exports extra the EU ) . It has also surprised me to learn that the exports made to the UK € 93 billion p.a. only represented  less than   7 % of their total exports in 2017 of €1,348 billion - so much for the claims that Germany will struggle without free and unfettered access to our market that's on gross sales not profit.

In 2017 despite being in the EU,  Germany still managed to export € 107 billion of goods  to the USA . How can that be as the USA isn't in the EU - I'm told we can't do our own deals outside the EU whilst being in the Customs Union can one of you Leavers please explain how Germany is in a position to  do such an impossible thing ?
I would love to know and the failure of  Remainers to point out such anomalies worries me. It would certainly have been pointed out by a Brexiter had the reverse been the case !

Isn't the real reason why our economy struggles in the way that it does is really because we have little to sell to the USA currently anyway regardless of any CU arrangement ?  That we don't have a balanced economy and regardless of the vote either way we were set to struggle in the future but perhaps far more so now our competitive edge has gone and of course our access in terms of Services is gravely at risk.

What now , to continue down an " isolationist " path based on a country that has little respect for economic truths staring it in the face or the disdain for our " experts ", judiciary, half the population et al  OR  another path NOT  based on sunny uplands with unicorns grazing blissfully in the breeze. A path based clearly in facing up to reality that we have to work harder and more wisely in close conjunction with our European partners.
These last few days alone have shown up our frailty in isolation and our desperate need for both geo- political as well as socio- economic partners with our immediate neighbours . Time is running out and this country needs to take a long, hard look at the decision it has made and decide whether it will benefit our young in  both the medium and long term or will leave them a legacy based on social, moral and economic catastrophic failure ?

Cue the usual why don't you go and live in Germany posts if it's that good from Brexiters. I have for 7 years and no my home is here this is my country too .

[hoolahoop]

I reckon Churchill wouldn't have stood for any demands he deemed unfair even if he had taken us into a United States of Europe, and he would conduct Brexit talks in the same way.

As far as BBC bias, do you watch Question Time?

Yes I do religiously and pull my hair out at the consistent audience and panel bias for Leave . Even in a heavily Remain constituency area we seem to have the same old rabid Brexiters shouting down those Remainers even prepared to put their head up over the parapet.
It makes me seethe with anger to see " big hitters " from the Leave side pitted against " weak at best" Remainers on his selected panel. Week after week we get this , last week was a perfect example where in a heavy Remain constituency of Westminster - they barely discussed Brexit .

I take it you look at the carefully crafted but  hugely biased vids on the Express/ Mail online to cement this impression in your mind further. They are wholly unrepresentative of the debate in general and infuriating .
Finally what annoys me most is that you see it as a pro- Remain programme is the propaganda online in the Mail/ Express etc that effective ?

Yet again, Hoola, you take it wrong.

Why have I misunderstood your post you seem to point out a pro - Remain bias  and YET AGAIN you seem to ignore what others have to say . What did you mean that QT showed a pro Brexit stance as your post is not clear taken in isolation but contextually it seemed reasonable that was the case you were pointing out .
What's this condescending " yet againery " about and why did you feel it necessary to be rude ? There is no personal attack on you and your constant remarks about what would Churchill think etc .........The war has long gone and he was for a United Europe but one I'm sure he would have wanted us to be foresquare at the front of , leading it , ......not leaving it . Who knows the mind of Churchill the great man could be both great and poor . Would he have wanted us to leave it in a dangerous period that we have now ....I guess not

Finally if I have misunderstood the direction of travel intended in your post about QT then I apologise.

[BillyStubbsTears]

MM

I replied to BB in a similar theme a couple of days ago. There are certain things that are simply too complicated for economists to predict. Other things are relatively easy.

No one predicted the 2007/08 crash. Some people claim they saw something coming but there’s no prediction that really stacks up. That’s because it was due to a fiendishly complex set of circumstances. The key complexity was how the shadow banking system had taken in far more risk than anyone properly understood, and how vulnerable it was to a loss of confidence caused by the collapse of the American housing bubble. Even then, the crash would not have been anything like as severe as it was if the US Govt had bailed out Lehman Brothers. Letting them go bust opened up the trap door under the confidence that was supporting the whole banking system.

No one could have predicted the systemic effect of that because the interplay of effects was too poorly understood and too complex. Many people were worried about the housing bubble but there have been many bubbles which have deflated without crippling the global financial system.

The effect of Brexit is totally different. Academic economists understand very well the effect of open or closed trading arrangements on countries’ economies. This is nowhere near as complex an issue or as dimly understood an issue as the factors that led to the Great Crash. So they can relatively accurately model the effect of us choosing to make it harder to trade with 450million generally wealthy people on our doorstep.

Here’s an analogy. Trying to predict the outcome of the global economy is like trying to predict the result of a football match between two very well matched sides. Every pundit will have an opinion, but none of them really know. There are too many interacting variables to accurately predict the outcome.

Predicting the effect of Brexit is like trying to predict the result of a long distance race between a bunch of well matched runners, but where one of the runners has chosen to hang a 1kg weight round his waist. You can’t predict exactly what time that runner will do, but you can be fairly certain that they’ll be slower than they would have been without the weight.

So it is with Brexit. Yes there will be some uncertainty. Yes the models will give different answers. Yes the precise outcome will depend on what arrangements we can get with other trading partners. But even taking all those things into account, pretty much every expert expected and still expects the effect of Brexit to be profoundly negative on our economy.

And unfortunately, we’re in the middle of seeing those predictions come true. Believe me, I wish with all my heart that they were wrong because I’m f**ked if I want my kids growing up in the sort of country that we are going to be when we realise what we’ve pissed away and start looking for someone to blame.

[Bentley Bullet]

Hoola, I wasn't being rude when I said you'd taken it wrong regarding your suggestion that I get my BBC Brexit bias info from the Mail/Express. I was merely correcting you because, although those tabloids do claim BBC pro-EU bias, I couldn't use their examples in this forum because they would simply be disregarded as lies.

It's a pity really that my personal opinion can't be accepted as just that, but it seems that until I can show links as evidence of several other like-minded people who share my observations, my opinion is disrespected, sometimes to the point of ridicule. Rude even!

In an attempt at evidence that will be accepted as proof that my personal opinion is shared, here's a link. I won't hold my breath.

http://bbccomplaints.com/

[hoolahoop]

" I’m f**ked if I want my kids growing up in the sort of country that we are going to be when we realise what we’ve pissed away and start looking for someone to blame."

Fortunately my kid has gained her place at Copenhagen University to study and learn the language for a year. International degrees are going to be helpful for our youngsters going forward . She and her circle of friends at Leeds University are looking for that way out .....They know they have been sold out and are getting out , working abroad is an option they must look at . It was devastating talking to a group of them just a few weeks ago - fortunately they are amongst the last to gain certain Erasmus + places with EU  financial help too .
Never mind our failure to get the brightest and the best in , many of our own are looking at their options to leave.

[hoolahoop]

Hoola, I wasn't being rude when I said you'd taken it wrong regarding your suggestion that I get my BBC Brexit bias info from the Mail/Express. I was merely correcting you because, although those tabloids do claim BBC pro-EU bias, I couldn't use their examples in this forum because they would simply be disregarded as lies.

It's a pity really that my personal opinion can't be accepted as just that, but it seems that until I can show links as evidence of several other like-minded people who share my observations, my opinion is disrespected, sometimes to the point of ridicule. Rude even!

In an attempt at evidence that will be accepted as proof that my personal opinion is shared, here's a link. I won't hold my breath.

http://bbccomplaints.com/

BB I'm sure you didn't intend to be rude but I watch this programme " stuffed with old leavers " with disdain,  unfortunately those that would probably apply for this programme would tend to come from an older age group and ergo would be more likely to be Brexiters. It seems that generally the younger ( under 45 ) people in the audience tend to express pro- Brexit views .
It is a ' personal ' opinion just like your opinion and I acknowledge your right to hold an opinion and express it here . Indeed it's hard to get substantive proof either way and of course I will look at any evidence that you post .
That's the whole point of debate isn't it , to look at both sides of an argument and base your opinion on  what you read and hear  ?

Obviously both of us are entrenched in our position and that will alter both our perspectives. Theres a long way to go yet ...

[Bentley Bullet]

Hoola, just to clarify I didn't vote to leave. My present stance is that we have to all move forward together. This won't be achieved if almost half the nation doesn't want to move forward. How can others have confidence in our country if we haven't got any ourselves?

The least us Remainers can do is stop splitting the country with derogatory remarks and hatred towards the leave voters. The conduct of some will have persuaded other Remainers to change allegiance in a show of disassociation. I've been tempted, especially after witnessing media bias and insults, such as has been seen on BBC TV for instance.

[BillyStubbsTears]

BB

Problem is, what are we supposed to be moving forward together on?

We were told 2 years ago that we could leave with a Norway type deal.

We were told 2 years ago that Ireland wouldn’t be a problem if we voted Leave.

Now all that has been hijacked by a small group of senior Tory MPs. They have interpreted Brexit in a very different way. They have decided that Brexit means something much harder than we were told before the vote.

There would not have been a majority for Leave if we’d been told what Leave meant in early 2016. The head of the Leave campaign has said as much himself. Personally, I find that an affront to democracy. And I think that pointing that out is not the thing that is splitting the country.

[tommy toes]

Hoola
Interesting point regarding your daughter.
My daughter is a trained nurse. I'm encouraging her to move to Australia as due to this ridiculous decision this country is f***ed. If I was younger I'd be off too.

[selby]

  On the subject of our exit payments, if we pay yearly, could we say that we will pay for a year when they show us the audited accounts for that year.
   It could be a way of reducing our payments or at least spreading them over a longer term.

[auckleyflyer]

Firstly we appear to be a bunch of remainers in here arguing amongst ourselves!! Ironic?
Billy your analogy of two premier league teams up against one another is valid, but why as a footballing world do we love cup competitions???!! Even the experts get these wrong.
I do agree with you but bad analogy old pal.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Auckley. I think you missed the point I was making mate.

[Sprotyrover]

Hoola why has your offspring picked a small very economically vulnerable
Country to do her degree, by vulnerable isn't their main export Bacon, followed by butter, to us.?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Sproty.

Maybe...
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-43414145


You’re way off the mark on exports by the way. You really out to read more widely.
http://www.worldstopexports.com/denmarks-top-10-exports/