Brexit Negotiations

[RedJ]

The public. I'm not convinced it's real though.

I'm not so sure. Those eyeing up knifing May in the back and take over don't want the stigmata of a shit Brexit on their hands. Now they'll have to vote for it in Parliameant their fingerprints will be on record as being all over it.

However, if there's a second vote they'll be off the hook. Either Brexit is voted against and the problem goes away completely or it's voted for and they're just carrying out the 'will of the people', "nuffink to do wiv me, mate".

Well that was the crux of the letter. "We've realised it was a shit show, we can save our arses if we paint it as giving them a say on the deal we get or keeping the status quo and hopefully no one will notice we've shat it."

[BillyStubbsTears]

Bpool.

No. What I actually saw were the words of a senior director of BMW:
“We always said we can do our best and prepare everything, but if at the end of the day the supply chain will have a stop at the border, then we cannot produce our products in the UK”

What YOU have seen is a tabloid headline that very much exaggerates what another BMW manager said.

The Express headline for example says:
“BMW's Brexit U-turn: German car giant will NOT quit the UK in no deal scenario”

What the head of BMW UK ACTUALLY said was:
“We are not considering that as an option.” NB: Present tense. ARE not considering. As in, right now. He absolutely and carefully doesn’t say “We WILL NOT leave the UK if the deal ends up being bad,” which is how the Express spun it.

He went on to say:
“We are considering what we would need to have in place to overcome such impediments to border fluidity. That's where we are focused right now.

"It would be foolhardy of any company not to have these contingency ideas under way because we are racing towards March 29 next year.

“As previously stated, the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Brexit negotiations is not helpful when it comes to making long-term business decisions.

“Clearly if parts cannot physically get to a factory at the expected time, that factory will not run as smoothly and reliably as is desirable.”

So, if the Express has been honest, here is how they would have presented that story.

BMW UK boss says any change to customs and Single Market relationship with EU will cause them significant problems.  They are not actively planning to leave the UK at the moment and hope they won’t gave to do. But a senior BMW director said earlier in tge week that if there is no suitable deal, it may force BMW to leave the U.K.
Clearly, BMW are emphasising that there are no positives and only problems emerging as a result of the route to Brexit that we are taking. It remains to be seen just how bad those problems are.

That would have been fair reporting. What the Express did instead was to put a spin on the headline for people who don’t go past the headlines.

[wilts rover]

Or this:

BMW has long warned the British government over the dangers to UK production in the event of a hard Brexit. Group boss Harald Krüger previously stated: "We hope for pragmatism from all parties in the Brexit negotiations. That means no new barriers to trade and free movement for skilled workers. We're planning in terms of scenarios. You know that we make Mini models at VDL Nedcar in the Netherlands; we're flexible."
https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/bmw-uk-boss-we-will-not-close-uk-factories-post-brexit

[tommy toes]

Watching the news just now. Still no progress on anything and both sides accusing each other of intransigence.
Looking more and more like no deal to me.

[BillyStubbsTears]

We won’t leave with no deal. Not a chance in a million. Because it would be catastrophic to our economy (and I MEAN catastrophic) and it would be less severe but still damaging to the EU economy.

Where we’re heading to is the endgame where the bullshit and bluster of Johnson, Rees-Mogg and Fox gets exposed for bullshit and bluster. There’s no deal that they can work that would be satisfactory to the EU and not cause severe damage to our economy. May’s bern playing for time, hoping something will come up but there’s no time left now.

So May is going to have two options.
1) Really go for the suicidal No Deal strategy. But that will NOT get through Parliament. Then she would have to resign.

2) Go for the only tenable solution from where we are. An extended transition period in which nothing much changes and we kick the can down the road. And then she faces the wrath of the headjob Brexiteers who will probably bring her down.

It’ll be three years wasted and nothing further on. But at least we might be shut of her.

[hoolahoop]

Watching the news just now. Still no progress on anything and both sides accusing each other of intransigence.
Looking more and more like no deal to me.

No way TT to even think that the " no deal " option is feasible is foolhardy. It would destroy our economy - nobody in the Tory Party will allow that to happen hence all this obfuscation over the ' white paper '.

It would virtually destroy the Tory Party if it were to happen and ensure that they would not enjoy power again for decades. It remains only a crazy threat not a reality.

[hoolahoop]

Selby.

You’re right about the air going blue.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44618154
BMW have said they won’t
This egomaniac idiot saying “f**k business” and complaining about the opinions of “those who profess to represent business.” By which he means some of the leaders of the biggest companies in the country, who are telling the Govt that Brexit is going to hammer them and they’ll take their business out of the country.

Line up folks. Hands up.

Whose opinion do you trust? Simple choice. The heads of Airbus and BMW UK? Or Johnson, Fox and Rees-Mogg?

bmw have said they will not pull out of the uk even in the event of a no deal, so nothing to see here bar scaremongering, you have seen the independent newspaper print in and take it as gospel

Like others I suggest you either change the newspaper you read or at least go to the source of the headline.
They can and believe me WILL switch their production if they stand to lose money or have delays in their just in time systems . The same applies to other car manufacturers i.e. Toyota, Nissan, Landrover, Jaguar etc .

[Glyn_Wigley]

Watching the news just now. Still no progress on anything and both sides accusing each other of intransigence.
Looking more and more like no deal to me.

The thing is, the EU were never going to be anything but rock solid in their position. They have to be, in accordance with their own regulations reagrding their agencies. Its us that's changed their position, not them. And this was known all along but now they're being painted as the bad guys because they won't do what we want them to do. Even though they can't.

The only thing that is negotiable is the EU/UK trade relationship AFTER the UK has completely left the EU. And as far as I can see, nothing has been achieved in that area either, mainly because the UK seem to be demanding special treatment. Or can't hold a position long enough to conduct a competent negotiation.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Selby.

You’re right about the air going blue.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44618154
BMW have said they won’t
This egomaniac idiot saying “f**k business” and complaining about the opinions of “those who profess to represent business.” By which he means some of the leaders of the biggest companies in the country, who are telling the Govt that Brexit is going to hammer them and they’ll take their business out of the country.

Line up folks. Hands up.

Whose opinion do you trust? Simple choice. The heads of Airbus and BMW UK? Or Johnson, Fox and Rees-Mogg?

bmw have said they will not pull out of the uk even in the event of a no deal, so nothing to see here bar scaremongering, you have seen the independent newspaper print in and take it as gospel

Like others I suggest you either change the newspaper you read or at least go to the source of the headline.
They can and believe me WILL switch their production if they stand to lose money or have delays in their just in time systems . The same applies to other car manufacturers i.e. Toyota, Nissan, Landrover, Jaguar etc .

It's the same for any company. They exist to make profits, not provide jobs in Britain.

[wilts rover]

We won’t leave with no deal. Not a chance in a million. Because it would be catastrophic to our economy (and I MEAN catastrophic) and it would be less severe but still damaging to the EU economy.

Where we’re heading to is the endgame where the bullshit and bluster of Johnson, Rees-Mogg and Fox gets exposed for bullshit and bluster. There’s no deal that they can work that would be satisfactory to the EU and not cause severe damage to our economy. May’s bern playing for time, hoping something will come up but there’s no time left now.

So May is going to have two options.
1) Really go for the suicidal No Deal strategy. But that will NOT get through Parliament. Then she would have to resign.

2) Go for the only tenable solution from where we are. An extended transition period in which nothing much changes and we kick the can down the road. And then she faces the wrath of the headjob Brexiteers who will probably bring her down.

It’ll be three years wasted and nothing further on. But at least we might be shut of her.

I am pretty much agreed with all that. There are however a couple of other factors to throw into the mix:

1) Johnson and Davies walk out of this 'crunch' meeting at Chequers, resign from the cabinet, and the ERG send their letters to santa. The membership of the Tory party is 80% pro-Brexit, they demand a Brexiteer is put up against her (or she resigns and Javid steps up) and Rees-Mogg gets elected. Or no Brexiteer is put up and the Brexiteers refuse to endorse it.

2) The Trade & Customs Bill vote in late July. The Tory 'rebels' are so disappointed with what comes out of Chequers they find the backbone to rebel and the government is defeated. May calls a General Election.

Neither of this two scenarios may come to pass, but.....

[BillyStubbsTears]

Oh dear! Tinky-Winky’s not happy.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-44668572

Endgame’s coming. I don’t often agree with Matthew Parris but he knows how the Tory party works. He got it spot on in the Times today. Said that there is no deal that will satisfy the Brexit headbangers that is remotely feasible. Said May had been kicking the can down the road hoping fir something to come up. But no time has run out. And the only hope for her is to find some backbone and face down the Brexit headbangers. Let them bring her down if they want to. But at least she’d go down doing the right (or the least wrong) thing.

[wilts rover]

If you are interested in what is at stake at the Chequers meeting and how it might play out then Robert Peston's take on it is worth reading.

https://www.facebook.com/1498276767163730/posts/2088631428128258/

[Glyn_Wigley]

Oh dear! Tinky-Winky’s not happy.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-44668572

Endgame’s coming. I don’t often agree with Matthew Parris but he knows how the Tory party works. He got it spot on in the Times today. Said that there is no deal that will satisfy the Brexit headbangers that is remotely feasible. Said May had been kicking the can down the road hoping fir something to come up. But no time has run out. And the only hope for her is to find some backbone and face down the Brexit headbangers. Let them bring her down if they want to. But at least she’d go down doing the right (or the least wrong) thing.

Him doing that, and brazenly confirming it in public, knowing that he is untouchable in his job just underlines that Teresa May must be the weakest Prime Minister in living memory. She now reminds me of a quote from Yes, Minister:

Bernard Woolley: It used to be said there were two kinds of chairs to go with two kinds of Ministers: one sort that folds up instantly, the other sort goes round and round in circles.

[BillyStubbsTears]

She’s a catastrophe.

PMs do well by imposing discipline on ministers. Our Govt works through the concept of collective responsibility. They have the bloodletting in private then put on a common front to the external world. Ministers win some and lose some and grit their teeth and bear it either way. She is allowing ministers to say what they want in public and undermine any idea of a common front.

In previous years, Johnson, Williamson and Gove would have been sacked instantly for the way they have humiliated her this week. She’s terrified of having them out of the Cabinet and free to plot against her. But instead, they are inside and STILL openly acting against her. It’s a clusterf**k. 

[Glyn_Wigley]

No need to tell me, Billy, I did Politics at A-level!

[BillyStubbsTears]

Heh! They wouldn’t let me.

[hoolahoop]

No need to tell me, Billy, I did Politics at A-level!

You don't need to have studied Politics at all to realise how wrong all this behaviour is though. Anyone studying the subject would have realised that this is the poorest level of man - management witnessed in a PM certainly over the last 50 years . The Maybot fails in so many ways but unfortunately for the Opposition it fails to capitalise on all these areas of weakness .

[BillyStubbsTears]

I’ve given up trying to discuss this with Momentum members.

This is the worst PM and the most dysfunctional Govt in living memory. Any competent opposition should be 20 points ahead in the polls.

I raised this with a friend of mine who is an extremely intelligent person. Company owner and University Prof. And a Momentum member.

I asked him what he thought about Labour being behind in the polls in these circumstances.
He said, “We’re not. It’s neck and neck.”

So I showed him this page.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

And I pointed out that there have been 35 polls o et the past 3 months. The Tories have been ahead in 26, Labour in 2, with 7 tied.

His response to that was “Well no-one believed the polls.”

I then pointed out that Labour HAD been at neck and neck, in fact probably slightly ahead for a good while up to March. And in March, Corbyn started sounding like an apologist for Putin post-Salisbury. And that, since then, there’s been a decline of about 4% in Lab support with acommensurate increase in Tory and LD support.

His response was. “No, that’s nonsense.” 

But it isn’t nonsense. It’s there in the data. So I pointed that out. And he went off on a rant about the unfairness of the BBC.

This worries me. A lot. Smart people simply not wanting to see anything that contradicts what they have decided is they way things are. A total refusal to look at the facts.

[Donny Dub]

BREXIT - what a fat Barnsley lass does when she sits on a white plastic garden chair.

[wilts rover]

It's interesting that people who complain about Labour's Brexit stance and polling stats are generally wanting to ignore the referendum result and stay within the EU.

The party that has consistently campaigned to do that has also consistently polled at 7-8%.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I’m not sure who you are talking about Wilts, but that’s a classic case of the Whataboutery that I was talking about earlier.

[BillyStubbsTears]

If you’re in any doubt of how utterly shambolic this Govt is, read this. All of it.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-politics-44690167?__twitter_impression=true

Two years on since the Vote and not only is the Govt unsure what the plan is going to be, but they are unsure about whether a plan that they announced this morning actually exists or not.

If this wasn’t so horrifically serious, it would be farcical. As I’ve been saying for months: no concept of what is good for the country. It’s all about what can stop the Tory party from descending into Civil War. Even if that means telling one half of the party that they have a plan to soften Brexit, then telling the other half there’s no plan.

And STILL they are ahead in the polls...

[Padge_DRFC]

Of course they are ahead. Jeremy Corbyn is the issue. Attracts extreme left wing lunatics mainly.

[hoolahoop]

This " supposed " 3rd way looks as though it would be totally unacceptable to the EU , it sounds to me like a cobbled together mess.

Whilst it may at first appear to be seeking some sort of compromise within the Tory Party, it addresses few if any of the objectives of either warring faction - in fact it just pisses off the ardent " cliff edge ERG " Brexiters all the more. Strangely whilst they rant on about how " May has broken her word / is subject to challenge " - this seems to stiffen the resolve of the Remainers to protect and surround their PM.

All this angst and yet the likelihood of any of this being  semi-acceptable to the EU would seem remote.

The pressure and public appetite for a 2nd vote is getting ever stronger. The pivotal point will be reached when Starmer and Corbyn realise that they must change their stance or face losing support . Time to Oppose before it is too late for the Labour Party ; it is now obvious that few if any of their 6 tests can be met.

[hoolahoop]

Of course they are ahead. Jeremy Corbyn is the issue. Attracts extreme left wing lunatics mainly.

Unfortunately this supposed " will of the people " line that keeps getting trotted out is the main problem .
Is it really the people's will to live in a society that puts barriers up between it's nearest trading partners, makes itself poorer economically, socially, morally and in terms of security.

What " advisory " will of the people ever forced our leaders to inflict all of the above on us all with just the votes of 37% of the electorate.
Many of us are gregarious enough to want to work, holiday and retire abroad now that dream has been made just that much harder for us all to achieve.

We have all become used to exacting standards in our products and conditions in our employment that are now at risk . No genuine Leaver especially from poorer areas  of the country voted to be even poorer or potentially be less secure ; yes they had fears about immigration that wereý whipped up but was that enough ? 

[Bentley Bullet]

No genuine Leaver especially from poorer areas  of the country voted to be even poorer or potentially be less secure

Perhaps they were poor enough to think they had now't to lose so voted accordingly.

[DonnyOsmond]

For the majority their xenophobia clouded everything else to do with Brexit. It's definitely not gonna help Doncaster.

[Bentley Bullet]

For the majority their xenophobia clouded everything else to do with Brexit. It's definitely not gonna help Doncaster.

So the majority of leave voters were racist?

[Padge_DRFC]

For the majority their xenophobia clouded everything else to do with Brexit. It's definitely not gonna help Doncaster.

Here we go again. Any deal that stops us being allowed to negotiate our own trade deals with the rest of that big world out there would be terrible and a complete waste of time leaving for me.

Remoaners constantly tagging leave voters as racist gets a bit tedious and boring. Then again most of these far left wing lunatic protesters don’t even know what the EU is. Just jump on a bandwagon go marching around protesting whilst the rest of us go to work.

[Bentley Bullet]

I was undecided which way to vote right up to putting the cross on the paper. I decided to vote remain. I didn't realise how close I was to being a xenophobic racist!