Brexit Negotiations

[BillyStubbsTears]

He can’t Glyn. It wasn’t officially sent to him. Someone leaked it to him.

There’s a method in his madness though. The press were given advance copies so they could write up articles in the Sunday papers. That’s why it was embargoed. By releasing it early, Cummings has spiked those stories. The news dribbles out with half-completed stories not ready for publication and research by journalists not completed. So it doesn’t command the news agenda to the same extent.

It’s a desperate act though. It won’t win him many friends in Parliament. And it’ll raise questions among the police investigating the criminal acts that Vote Leave engaged in.

[selby]

  Hoola if you think the rallies cost nothing you must be from Mars.
  Do you really think that the good and great would speak at them for F**K all, don't think for one minute they would do it for nowt, and it would be plus expenses in the Dorchester.
  It is after all their job getting the unwashed to follow. I bet the best profit  margin would be the placards.

[Hounslowrover]

Selby, of course rallies cost money, the People's vote crowdfunded nearly £150000 for the June march to pay for staffing, leaflets, advertising and security etc.  They are doing the same for the October march.  The speakers aren't paid, otherwise the MPs who speak would have to declare it.  Where is your evidence that they get paid or stay in expensive hotels?
 Let's have constructive criticism, not meaningless tirades with no basis!

[hoolahoop]

  Hoola if you think the rallies cost nothing you must be from Mars.
  Do you really think that the good and great would speak at them for F**K all, don't think for one minute they would do it for nowt, and it would be plus expenses in the Dorchester.
  It is after all their job getting the unwashed to follow. I bet the best profit  margin would be the placards.

Why do you come out with such bollox , people that speak at these sort of rallies do it because they believe in them not for the fat paycheck. Who stayed at the Dorchester or similar 5* hotel , I'm intrigued where you get this stuff from......This is NOT THE 2 Leave campaigns

[BillyStubbsTears]

BB. Bpool. Boomstick.

You’ve been insistent that the economic disaster predicted by the Remain side either didn’t happen as predicted or wouldn’t affect ordinary people.

Look at the graph just down from the top of this page.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/uksectoraccounts/articles/makingendsmeetarehouseholdslivingbeyondtheirmeans/2018-07-26

f**k me. What a catastrophe.

[Bentley Bullet]

I said there wasn't an immediate recession, as promised by the remain campaigners.

Are you saying now that there was?

[BillyStubbsTears]

BB

No. No I’m not. As you well know. I’m saying that there’s been an immediate and very severe economic hit (just as predicted) which for technical reasons didn’t translate into an official recession.

Happy now?

[BillyStubbsTears]

In recent polls, 30% of those surveyed said their preferred Brexit outcome was for us to walk away with no deal.

Several folk on here have said the same thing.

If that’s your belief, you really need to be reading this. Every word of it. And then sitting down in the quiet and having a think.


http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/07/27/this-is-what-no-deal-brexit-actually-looks-like

[wilts rover]

Or if you dont have time to do that you could instead read this list of 36 things that will happen under no deal:

https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/thirty-six-things-that-will-happen-if-britain-crashes-out-of-europe-with-no-deal

[wilts rover]

And if you have plenty of time and want an impartial view of where we are now, how we got here and what chance Theresa May has of doing anything about it, this is worth reading:

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/07/30/theresa-mays-impossible-choice

[Ldr]

I voted leave, I think I would vote remain in a 2nd referendum due to the monumental f**k up of negotiations

[BillyStubbsTears]

Thing is Ldr. There was never any prospect of the negotiations being anything other than a monumental f**k up.

To negotiate, you need a strong bottom line. The one that says “Give is something or we will walk away”. 

That’s what this bunch of f**king idiots is now trying to do with the No Deal threat. But the EU negotiators know that would be Britain cutting our own throat. So they are laughing at the threat.

And that means there’s zero incentive on the EU to give an inch. Why on Earth should they? Would you? Would you say “Yeah go on. You e abused us and lied about us for years. Let’s give you a deal that gives you all the benefits and none of the problems!”

So the EU says in fact. “Here’s the deal. You do what we say or...well or what? You e no alternative.”

And the Right Wing of the Tory Party says “How dare they! We’re British! We’ll bloody well walk away.”

Etc. Etc. Etc.

Round and round the f**king hamster wheel.

[Ldr]

With hindsight I dont doubt it. I still think leaving was the right decision( I am opposed to the thought of a federal europe which is the statied aim of the EU project (cant remember who posted the preamble) but the shite isnt worth it at this stage mate

[BillyStubbsTears]

There’s no chance of a Federal Europe. But I respect your decision. I also think that’s a foolish project. But the way I see it, there’s way too much resistance across the continent for that to happen in our lifetimes. And us committing economic suicide isn’t going to make a jot of difference.

Anyway. It doesn’t matter who was right or wrong beforehand. I’d genuinely be delighted if the Brexiters found a way to guide us through this without crippling our economy. Because this is really f**king serious now. What matters is not winning arguments points, but stopping the country barrelling into the biggest economic catastrophe since WWII.

[Ldr]

Its a shitstorm of monumental proportions

[BillyStubbsTears]

In my more optimistic moments, I see us stumbling to October with no f**king idea of how to negotiate our way out of the shitstorm. And the EU saying: Right. You know you’ve f**ked up. We know you’ve f**ked up. Two choices now. 1) You Leave with No Deal. Door’s over there. Shut it behind you. Good luck. 2) We have a Transition Period of undefined length during which nothing will change (except you don’t get to vote on anything - we’ll let you know the decisions) and you go away and take as long as you need to figure out what the f**k you want to do with your future as a grown up nation. We’ll dress it up a bit better than that for you, but that’s the choice.


Instead, at the moment, we have May re-hashing ideas that are acceptable to neither her own party nor the EU, then telling the EU that they must give. To which, if I were an EU negotiator, I’d say: Yeah? Or you’ll do WHAT precisely? Go out and parrot “No Deal is better than a Bad Deal” again? Off you go then.

[hoolahoop]

Its a shitstorm of monumental proportions

Truly a clusterf**k, I've just read the very serious and interesting conversation between the 2 of you sensing there is a need for conciliation between all parties . Until we do work together and start listening to each other we will get further and further bogged down I wish the ideologues from both sides could begin the same process .

Common sense has to prevail now , priorities need to be set and red lines need to become amber one's . We somehow have too rescue as much as possible from a very weak position. Bearing in mind the obstacles we face and the divisions between us ; I can't think how we can bring that about.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Cummings is claiming today that the adverts weren’t sent out during the embargo period. They were just uploaded then for subsequent release.

Maybe that’s the truth. But it’s not what the FB data released by Parliament says. And to be honest, he sounds deranged on his blog. Firing off abusive missives at the Select Committee chair, and releasing a Parliamentary report which is supposed to be not published till Sunday with the line “I’ve published the report on my blog, f**k the charlatan embargo.

It’s rather unsettling to be honest. Like watching a public nervous breakdown. The man is hugely intelligent, but seems to have no concept of the responsibilities that go alongside involvement in public life. He seems to consider every person in politics to be beneath him and contemptible (bizarrely, excluding Gove and Johnson). That sort of God complex is unlikely to lead to long term mental stability.

I was prepared to give Cummings the benefit of the doubt over the ads during the no-campaigning period. Seems like he was just lying through his teeth. Here’s an exchange between leading Vote Leave social media managers on the second day of the embargo.

https://mobile.twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1023519220271915008

“The ads come back online at 10pm tonight.”

Utterly without morals. The whole thing f**king stinks.

It doesn’t matter that the atmosphere has got so fevered that a far-right terrorist who was obsessed with his country being over run by immigrants has just blown off the face of an MP, a wife and a mother. We’re going to ignore the campaigning embargo and keep on whispering our lies about immigrants and the EU into the ears of people who we’ve illegally identified as being susceptible to this lies

[BillyStubbsTears]

Meanwhile.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/army-on-standby-for-no-deal-brexit-emergency-dz3359lrf

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/dont-panic-well-deal-with-no-deal-bs7sk5vxg

What was it Gove said? Oh aye. We hold all the cards in the Brexit negotiations.

What was it Fox said? Oh aye. The negotiations will be the easiest ever.

Still, bright side, eh? Many of the pensioner Brexit voters were pining for a Britain that they remembered from the past. Looks like they’ll get what the wanted. No deal Brexit means the shops will be empty, there’ll be rationing and you’ll die from what should be easily treatable I’ll esses because we’ll not have the medicine. Just like the 1940s.

[bpoolrover]

I don't see why there will be any food shortages there is enough time to plan ahead, just a scaremongering tactic

[BillyStubbsTears]

It’s the Government that is stockpiling food. It’s the Govt that has decided not to give weekly updates on its contingency plans because they are worried that there will be panic.

As for it being scaremongering, I’m assuming you didn’t read the link I put up last night?

Why don’t YOU think there will be shortages. What have you read or heard that gives you confidence that there won’t be?

[bpoolrover]

Not been funny mate but how do countries that are not in the eu manage? There is plenty of time to either sort a deal or have other plans in place, said

[Glyn_Wigley]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/no-deal-brexit-day-one-what-happens-economy-transport-nhs-eu-citizens-a8463636.html

[bpoolrover]

That's a nice little story glyn

[BillyStubbsTears]

Bpool

They have arrangements which develop. Slowly. Over decades.

If we have a No Deal Brexit, that means that at the end of March, we SUDDENLY have all our agreements with suppliers and customers lapse.

That’s the problem. No one is yanking your chain here. It is THAT serious.

[Bentley Bullet]

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/sep/02/economic-forecasting-flawed-science-data

[BillyStubbsTears]

BB

This is pointless. We’ve had this discussion a dozen times. You never, ever engage with the core issue. So there’s no point.

You convince yourself that no one can predict the effect of recession. That’s fine. You can also ignore the fact that the economic effects of Brexit that were predicted to date have come to pass pretty much exactly as predicted. You ignore that. That’s fine. It’s your prerogative. I’m done trying to convince you otherwise.

[Glyn_Wigley]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/29/oh-for-the-days-when-it-was-always-brussels-fault-brexit-jeremy-hunt

[Bentley Bullet]

http://www1.secam.ex.ac.uk/famous-forecasting-quotes.dhtml

[Glyn_Wigley]

http://www1.secam.ex.ac.uk/famous-forecasting-quotes.dhtml

'If nobody can predict the future, how do bookmakers make a living?'