Brexit Negotiations

[BillyStubbsTears]

Filo

How may times have you negotiated with someone after decades of abusing them and then said: But you’re not being FAIR? Why can’t I have the deal I want which will cause YOU to lose out? My grandad’s generation helped your’s!

And if you have, was it a successful strategy?

[wilts rover]

Interesting polling data out today.

Although what the 14% who believe the government will get a good deal are on is unclear. Unless they want us to crash out with no deal or are just on a wind-up?

https://news.sky.com/story/public-opinion-is-shifting-sharply-against-brexit-sky-data-poll-reveals-11453220

[BillyStubbsTears]

Only 24% are satisfied with the job May is doing as PM in that poll. That's about where Blair sank to in his last year as PM. It;s about where Brown sank to in the depths of the 2008 recession. It's about where Thatcher sank to in the depths of the Poll Tax crisis. It's a bit better than the worst point of John Major's car crash Govt. It's much worse than worst that Jim Callaghan scored in the Winter of Discontent.

In other words, May is seen as being about as bad as the worst any PM has been in the past 40 years.

And STILL more people think she would make the best PM than think Corbyn would.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/07/27/voting-intention-conservatives-38-labour-38-22-23-/

[wilts rover]

Well if 48% of hardcore Tories think Corbyn will be the next PM then you can oly suppose it can only be the embittered Blairites running him down again for the polls, quelle suprise.

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/nearly-half-of-tory-members-think-jeremy-corbyn-will-become-prime-minister-amid-anger-over-mays-brexit-plans-steve-baker-no-deal-conservativehome_uk_5b5f0781e4b0fd5c73d16f28?utm_hp_ref=uk-homepage

[Filo]

Thing is Ldr. There was never any prospect of the negotiations being anything other than a monumental f**k up.

To negotiate, you need a strong bottom line. The one that says “Give is something or we will walk away”. 

That’s what this bunch of f**king idiots is now trying to do with the No Deal threat. But the EU negotiators know that would be Britain cutting our own throat. So they are laughing at the threat.

And that means there’s zero incentive on the EU to give an inch. Why on Earth should they? Would you? Would you say “Yeah go on. You e abused us and lied about us for years. Let’s give you a deal that gives you all the benefits and none of the problems!”

So the EU says in fact. “Here’s the deal. You do what we say or...well or what? You e no alternative.”

And the Right Wing of the Tory Party says “How dare they! We’re British! We’ll bloody well walk away.”

Etc. Etc. Etc.

Round and round the f**king hamster wheel.

And that is exactly what I said in my opening post of this thread

You did indeed Filo and how right you were . Sorry the site went down here but you also said that France owed us a debt going back many years and of course Germany still owed Greece a substantial amount of war reparations.

However those 2 points you raised were never going to compensate the 27 or could they put their principal tenets at risk and risk losing the EU project over us .

This might sound like little Englander, but going back to the WW2 every one of those 27 Countries owes us a great debt for standing up to the Nazis, along with our allies, it cost the UK a substantial amount of money to fight that cause, taking years to repay the debt, and now all it appears to be happening is they all collectivley want to stick the knife in our back and give it a good twist, all be it the situation is of our own making. Many Many of our Countrymen died for their freedom. I still say they want to punish us for voting to leave, nothing has been ceeded by them, negotiation is a process where each pary concedes things to gain in other areas, what is happening now is we are being dictated to, hot negotiation

And what did you do in the war that means the 27 EU nations owe you something, Filo?

PS If it's all about bodycount, how much exactly do we and the rest of Europe owe Putin and the rest of Russia?

Did I say I did anything in the war?

Stupid comment!

[Glyn_Wigley]

Thing is Ldr. There was never any prospect of the negotiations being anything other than a monumental f**k up.

To negotiate, you need a strong bottom line. The one that says “Give is something or we will walk away”. 

That’s what this bunch of f**king idiots is now trying to do with the No Deal threat. But the EU negotiators know that would be Britain cutting our own throat. So they are laughing at the threat.

And that means there’s zero incentive on the EU to give an inch. Why on Earth should they? Would you? Would you say “Yeah go on. You e abused us and lied about us for years. Let’s give you a deal that gives you all the benefits and none of the problems!”

So the EU says in fact. “Here’s the deal. You do what we say or...well or what? You e no alternative.”

And the Right Wing of the Tory Party says “How dare they! We’re British! We’ll bloody well walk away.”

Etc. Etc. Etc.

Round and round the f**king hamster wheel.

And that is exactly what I said in my opening post of this thread

You did indeed Filo and how right you were . Sorry the site went down here but you also said that France owed us a debt going back many years and of course Germany still owed Greece a substantial amount of war reparations.

However those 2 points you raised were never going to compensate the 27 or could they put their principal tenets at risk and risk losing the EU project over us .

This might sound like little Englander, but going back to the WW2 every one of those 27 Countries owes us a great debt for standing up to the Nazis, along with our allies, it cost the UK a substantial amount of money to fight that cause, taking years to repay the debt, and now all it appears to be happening is they all collectivley want to stick the knife in our back and give it a good twist, all be it the situation is of our own making. Many Many of our Countrymen died for their freedom. I still say they want to punish us for voting to leave, nothing has been ceeded by them, negotiation is a process where each pary concedes things to gain in other areas, what is happening now is we are being dictated to, hot negotiation

And what did you do in the war that means the 27 EU nations owe you something, Filo?

PS If it's all about bodycount, how much exactly do we and the rest of Europe owe Putin and the rest of Russia?

Did I say I did anything in the war?

Stupid comment!

Bloody 'ell, and you think dragging a war that finished nearly 75 years ago into the negotiations isn't a stupid comment!

[BillyStubbsTears]

Well if 48% of hardcore Tories think Corbyn will be the next PM then you can oly suppose it can only be the embittered Blairites running him down again for the polls, quelle suprise.

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/nearly-half-of-tory-members-think-jeremy-corbyn-will-become-prime-minister-amid-anger-over-mays-brexit-plans-steve-baker-no-deal-conservativehome_uk_5b5f0781e4b0fd5c73d16f28?utm_hp_ref=uk-homepage

I’ve got a line on my Blairite Insults bingo card.

Let’s see. Oh yes! I win an evening out with Jon Lansman for re-education purposes.

[hoolahoop]

Haha now that would be interesting, your prize for the full house ?

[SydneyRover]

I'm going to stick my neck out and say that there will be a second referendum of some sort, the government is still in chaos central, May is still hostage to the self promoters, the Britain is in reverse.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/brexit-final-say-doctors-harm-nhs-crisis-eu-second-referendum-nurses-study-a8470336.html

[Filo]

Thing is Ldr. There was never any prospect of the negotiations being anything other than a monumental f**k up.

To negotiate, you need a strong bottom line. The one that says “Give is something or we will walk away”. 

That’s what this bunch of f**king idiots is now trying to do with the No Deal threat. But the EU negotiators know that would be Britain cutting our own throat. So they are laughing at the threat.

And that means there’s zero incentive on the EU to give an inch. Why on Earth should they? Would you? Would you say “Yeah go on. You e abused us and lied about us for years. Let’s give you a deal that gives you all the benefits and none of the problems!”

So the EU says in fact. “Here’s the deal. You do what we say or...well or what? You e no alternative.”

And the Right Wing of the Tory Party says “How dare they! We’re British! We’ll bloody well walk away.”

Etc. Etc. Etc.

Round and round the f**king hamster wheel.

And that is exactly what I said in my opening post of this thread

You did indeed Filo and how right you were . Sorry the site went down here but you also said that France owed us a debt going back many years and of course Germany still owed Greece a substantial amount of war reparations.

However those 2 points you raised were never going to compensate the 27 or could they put their principal tenets at risk and risk losing the EU project over us .

This might sound like little Englander, but going back to the WW2 every one of those 27 Countries owes us a great debt for standing up to the Nazis, along with our allies, it cost the UK a substantial amount of money to fight that cause, taking years to repay the debt, and now all it appears to be happening is they all collectivley want to stick the knife in our back and give it a good twist, all be it the situation is of our own making. Many Many of our Countrymen died for their freedom. I still say they want to punish us for voting to leave, nothing has been ceeded by them, negotiation is a process where each pary concedes things to gain in other areas, what is happening now is we are being dictated to, hot negotiation

And what did you do in the war that means the 27 EU nations owe you something, Filo?

PS If it's all about bodycount, how much exactly do we and the rest of Europe owe Putin and the rest of Russia?

Did I say I did anything in the war?

Stupid comment!

Bloody 'ell, and you think dragging a war that finished nearly 75 years ago into the negotiations isn't a stupid comment!

No I don't, without that war and eventual victory the EU would not exist today. This Country took a huge finacial and human loss (as did other Countries) to free Europe, the EU is a French/German baby, De Gaul, after all we did to help the French turned his back on Britain and blocked our initial attempts to join the trading bloc, and jumped into bed with the Country that Occupied France. In my opinion we've only been wanted by Europe when we are useful to them

[bpoolrover]

don't see how the tories can have a 2nd referendum they will lose power immediately

[SydneyRover]

don't see how the tories can have a 2nd referendum they will lose power immediately

I think theyll lose power if they dont call one, the dominoes are falling for them.

[Bentley Bullet]

And then we'll have Corbyn and Abbott. All our problems will be solved!

[SydneyRover]

May has shown a distinct lack of ability to make any decision at all and Corbyn is refusing to discuss the possibility of staying in, my thinking is that Mays government will implode, there will be a crisis followed by an election and Corbyn will be ousted unless he changes his stance.
There you go, done!

[hoolahoop]

Rightwing UK thinktank 'offered ministerial access' to potential US donors

This could hugely benefit US farmers by lifting the ban on the sale in the UK of beef from cattle treated with growth hormones and chlorine-washed chicken.

M-mmm-southern fried chlorine chicken, would you like some hormones with that?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/29/rightwing-thinktank-ministerial-access-potential-us-donors-insitute-of-economic-affairs-brexit

I read it earlier - it's scary what we have signed up for . In addition Jeremy Hunt has gone down like a lead balloon in China ; which " wants to strengthen its ties with the EU to counteract the trade war with the USA,   "...........
we are so last season dear it appears. So no hanging our hat on them.

Seems we are stuck with a big :-McChlorine meal with cheese and fries and a coke............is that one line or two sir ?
Only one please.....ok have a nice day sir

[BillyStubbsTears]

Filo

It’s a nice national myth that we “saved Europe” in WWII.

What we did was continue the foreign policy that we’d had for 400 years. Which was to make alliances to make sure that no one got too strong in Europe that they could challenge our Empire.

So we'd allied with Prussia and the Holy Roman Empire and Austria and the Dutch to defeat France in the War of Spanish Succession.

The we worked with Prussia and Portugal to knock back the France/Spain/Russia/Sweden alliance in the Seven Years War

We worked with Prussia and Russia to defeat Napoleon.

Then we worked with France and Turkey in the Crimean War to stop Russia threatening the Suez route.

Then we worked with France and Russia to bat Germany down in WWI.

Then with Soviet Union and America to stop Germany.

Then with America to stop the Soviet Union dominating Europe.

That was common sense. We did it because our ruling elite saw that it was in their interests to do it. Keep Europe divided. Stop a major power dominating. Let us get on with ruling most of the rest of the world.

Trouble is, the Right now see the EU through that lens. They see Europe United and they hate it because that’s their culture. They forget that the Empire no longer exists so we’re in a different situation now. And because they hate the idea of Europe United, they miss the point that it’s better for us to be a part of it instead of fighting against it.

WWII wasn’t some altruistic saving of Europe. It was all about bashing Germany. If it had been in our interests to make a deal with Hitler, we’d have made a deal.

The sooner we disabuse ourselves of this myth, the sooner we’ll be able to see what is REALKY in our interests.

[hoolahoop]

We are still singing " there were  twelve German bombers overhead.......etc. ". Sigh and  You are right it is a myth , initially the Germans took advantage of the dying Austro- Hungarian Empire slowly building their armed forces up ( particularly their navy ) with a view to threaten our Empire , recover lost lands with and without German speaking peoples in them expand in Europe and Africa and of course free themselves from the shackles that they were put in following WW1  . We all know how it went from thereonin......
There are so many myths about our behaviour in Europe between 1918 and 1974 , that we could spend literally 100s of pages disseminating myths it would make the Brexit debate appear simple by comparison.

However it does seem rather ridiculous our people still banging on about it now

How would you feel Filo if all the countries in the world that we had in our Empire at one  time called in favours, one's where we had blood on our hands ? ( There were far too many so I have just wiped virtually my whole post off - we have enough lengthy posts !)

[bpoolrover]

Rightwing UK thinktank 'offered ministerial access' to potential US donors

This could hugely benefit US farmers by lifting the ban on the sale in the UK of beef from cattle treated with growth hormones and chlorine-washed chicken.

M-mmm-southern fried chlorine chicken, would you like some hormones with that?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/29/rightwing-thinktank-ministerial-access-potential-us-donors-insitute-of-economic-affairs-brexit

I read it earlier - it's scary what we have signed up for . In addition Jeremy Hunt has gone down like a lead balloon in China ; which " wants to strengthen its ties with the EU to counteract the trade war with the USA,   "...........
we are so last season dear it appears. So no hanging our hat on them.

Seems we are stuck with a big :-McChlorine meal with cheese and fries and a coke............is that one line or two sir ?
Only one please.....ok have a nice day sir

hunt made a mistake about his wife but why has he gone down like a balloon? Only ask as I’ve not seen anything about it?

[hoolahoop]

Rightwing UK thinktank 'offered ministerial access' to potential US donors

This could hugely benefit US farmers by lifting the ban on the sale in the UK of beef from cattle treated with growth hormones and chlorine-washed chicken.

M-mmm-southern fried chlorine chicken, would you like some hormones with that?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/29/rightwing-thinktank-ministerial-access-potential-us-donors-insitute-of-economic-affairs-brexit

I read it earlier - it's scary what we have signed up for . In addition Jeremy Hunt has gone down like a lead balloon in China ; which " wants to strengthen its ties with the EU to counteract the trade war with the USA,   "...........
we are so last season dear it appears. So no hanging our hat on them.

Seems we are stuck with a big :-McChlorine meal with cheese and fries and a coke............is that one line or two sir ?
Only one please.....ok have a nice day sir

hunt made a mistake about his wife but why has he gone down like a balloon? Only ask as I’ve not seen anything about it?

It's great that you have asked bpool.
Hunt has got a Chinese wife  - some how he mentioned that he had a " Japanese " wife . The Japanese of course are the sworn enemies of the Chinese following the reign of terror unleashed on the Chinese by the Japanese soldiers in WW2 - they raped and pillaged wherever and whenever they wanted .( The siege of Nanking stands out in particular )
Incidentally they did exactly the same to the peoples on the Korean Peninsula.
 
To be fair I'm not sure that once he had acknowledged his mistake that he would have been forgiven. However he also raised the question of the way the people of Hong Kong were being denied their democratic rights , which both countries agreed on handover to maintain.
The Chinese Foreign Minister more or less said mind your own business " Hong Kong is Chinese now ".  In fairness, as I mentioned above, China is persuing the EU somewhat for Trade Agreements to counter the potential losses  in the USA  because of Trump's " America First " policy. Because Trump has applied higher tariffs on goods some Chinese products will be too dear now for the  USA market.

This of course makes it more difficult for us China is persuing the EU, the EU  has signed an agreement with Japan , meaning we may well  be left with just 3 large import / export markets : the USA, Brazil and of course India. Brazil and India are already in a loose arrangement with Russia and China ( BRICs)
It's all very messy for us , irrespective of the size of our economy - it comes down to the size and strengths of our market. There's so many geo- physical forces at play here that currently we are a minnow swimming in a sea of sharks.

[Filo]

Rightwing UK thinktank 'offered ministerial access' to potential US donors

This could hugely benefit US farmers by lifting the ban on the sale in the UK of beef from cattle treated with growth hormones and chlorine-washed chicken.

M-mmm-southern fried chlorine chicken, would you like some hormones with that?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/29/rightwing-thinktank-ministerial-access-potential-us-donors-insitute-of-economic-affairs-brexit

I read it earlier - it's scary what we have signed up for . In addition Jeremy Hunt has gone down like a lead balloon in China ; which " wants to strengthen its ties with the EU to counteract the trade war with the USA,   "...........
we are so last season dear it appears. So no hanging our hat on them.

Seems we are stuck with a big :-McChlorine meal with cheese and fries and a coke............is that one line or two sir ?
Only one please.....ok have a nice day sir

hunt made a mistake about his wife but why has he gone down like a balloon? Only ask as I’ve not seen anything about it?

It's great that you have asked bpool.
Hunt has got a Chinese wife  - some how he mentioned that he had a " Japanese " wife . The Japanese of course are the sworn enemies of the Chinese following the reign of terror unleashed on the Chinese by the Japanese soldiers in WW2 - they raped and pillaged wherever and whenever they wanted .( The siege of Nanking stands out in particular )
Incidentally they did exactly the same to the peoples on the Korean Peninsula.
 
To be fair I'm not sure that once he had acknowledged his mistake that he would have been forgiven. However he also raised the question of the way the people of Hong Kong were being denied their democratic rights , which both countries agreed on handover to maintain.
The Chinese Foreign Minister more or less said mind your own business " Hong Kong is Chinese now ".  In fairness, as I mentioned above, China is persuing the EU somewhat for Trade Agreements to counter the potential losses  in the USA  because of Trump's " America First " policy. Because Trump has applied higher tariffs on goods some Chinese products will be too dear now for the  USA market.

This of course makes it more difficult for us China is persuing the EU, the EU  has signed an agreement with Japan , meaning we may well  be left with just 3 large import / export markets : the USA, Brazil and of course India. Brazil and India are already in a loose arrangement with Russia and China ( BRICs)
It's all very messy for us , irrespective of the size of our economy - it comes down to the size and strengths of our market. There's so many geo- physical forces at play here that currently we are a minnow swimming in a sea of sharks.

So it's OK for you to mention WW2?

[RedJ]

Well done on taking the comment massively out of context filo.

[The Red Baron]

This is interesting. It suggests that the possibility / risk of a No-Deal Brexit is concentrating minds in the EU as well as here.

http://www.eurointelligence.com/public/

It's worth remembering that if a deal is reached although we will formally leave the EU on 29th March 2019 there will be a transition period. That would allow time for things like customs arrangements to be put in place.

[bpoolrover]

Both sides are playing games at the minute,may is using no deal as a bargaining tool and rightly so, there is to much as stake for a no deal and right at the last minute they will both back down

[hoolahoop]

The Trade war has kicked on between the USA and China.

[hoolahoop]

Rightwing UK thinktank 'offered ministerial access' to potential US donors

This could hugely benefit US farmers by lifting the ban on the sale in the UK of beef from cattle treated with growth hormones and chlorine-washed chicken.

M-mmm-southern fried chlorine chicken, would you like some hormones with that?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/29/rightwing-thinktank-ministerial-access-potential-us-donors-insitute-of-economic-affairs-brexit

I read it earlier - it's scary what we have signed up for . In addition Jeremy Hunt has gone down like a lead balloon in China ; which " wants to strengthen its ties with the EU to counteract the trade war with the USA,   "...........
we are so last season dear it appears. So no hanging our hat on them.

Seems we are stuck with a big :-McChlorine meal with cheese and fries and a coke............is that one line or two sir ?
Only one please.....ok have a nice day sir

hunt made a mistake about his wife but why has he gone down like a balloon? Only ask as I’ve not seen anything about it?

It's great that you have asked bpool.
Hunt has got a Chinese wife  - some how he mentioned that he had a " Japanese " wife . The Japanese of course are the sworn enemies of the Chinese following the reign of terror unleashed on the Chinese by the Japanese soldiers in WW2 - they raped and pillaged wherever and whenever they wanted .( The siege of Nanking stands out in particular )
Incidentally they did exactly the same to the peoples on the Korean Peninsula.
 
To be fair I'm not sure that once he had acknowledged his mistake that he would have been forgiven. However he also raised the question of the way the people of Hong Kong were being denied their democratic rights , which both countries agreed on handover to maintain.
The Chinese Foreign Minister more or less said mind your own business " Hong Kong is Chinese now ".  In fairness, as I mentioned above, China is persuing the EU somewhat for Trade Agreements to counter the potential losses  in the USA  because of Trump's " America First " policy. Because Trump has applied higher tariffs on goods some Chinese products will be too dear now for the  USA market.

This of course makes it more difficult for us China is persuing the EU, the EU  has signed an agreement with Japan , meaning we may well  be left with just 3 large import / export markets : the USA, Brazil and of course India. Brazil and India are already in a loose arrangement with Russia and China ( BRICs)
It's all very messy for us , irrespective of the size of our economy - it comes down to the size and strengths of our market. There's so many geo- physical forces at play here that currently we are a minnow swimming in a sea of sharks.

So it's OK for you to mention WW2?

Filo I was merely answering bpool's question and giving some contextual background. It was a historical response not an opinion. Besides, I've not said it was right or wrong , I havent commented on the Opium Wars, the rights and wrongs of our tenure of Hong Kong etc. Perhaps the Chinese ought to o be given a great deal from us on that basis  who knows ? However the ramping up of armed forces between the two nations is all too obvious and has been for quite some time whereas we have a bilateral mutual - defence deal in place with the French and have for a long long time . That's seems to be very sensible bearing in mind the many things we have in common 1) neighbours 2) similar -sized economies 3) nuclear powers but both nations haven't the resources to compete with China, USA, Russia and probably India too now 4) It's 200 years since we were fully at war with each other.
This idea that we owe each other favours in trade would be nice but not realistic .

However it might mean destroying the very project that they believe in intrinsicly and which by and large has worked in my opinion. You either " get " the idea or you don't and I respect your opinion in that you wish to " reject " it.

[Glyn_Wigley]

I wonder what sort of deal Filo thinks we ought to get from Japan seeing as we thrashed them 75 years ago?

[Filo]

I wonder what sort of deal Filo thinks we ought to get from Japan seeing as we thrashed them 75 years ago?

Since when was Japan in the EU?

[hoolahoop]

I wonder what sort of deal Filo thinks we ought to get from Japan seeing as we thrashed them 75 years ago?

Since when was Japan in the EU?

Filo the point that was being made was that we were searching for a Free Trade deal specifically with Japan. Of course Glyn rightly knots the 2 circumstances together.
For what it's worth , I do understand where you are coming from and probably so do the French . Unfortunately they can't destroy the project at least overtly for the other 27 but I'm sure there are many who are trying to sort out this conundrum at least behind the scenes to at least " fudge " the issue.

BST was correct in my opinion , we really must stop believing our own hype, we have loads still to give the world but we should keep it in context.

[SydneyRover]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LK8sxngSWaU

[wilts rover]

Meanwhile over in 21st century Europe....Barnier published a piece in the newspapers explaining why May's proposals were unacceptable. The Chequers' deal is dead before it even got going, so where do we go from here?

http://politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2018/08/03/barnier-has-finally-killed-chequers-and-with-it-the-uk-gover