Brexit Negotiations

[RedJ]

At least have the courage to back up what you're posting. You obviously think he's right if you've posted the link to what he's said, so why not just say that instead of reacting like a child?

[BillyStubbsTears]

https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/06/brexit-britain-property-bubble.        Someone else point of view on it, don’t know why it quoted everyone on last post

Bpool

You are repeatedly making my point for me.

The only people who support Brexit are ideologically fixated politicians, crooks and journalists who think that they are cleverer than anyone else.

Simon Jenkins falls into the latter category. He has no expertise whatsoever on the economics of Brexit. He offers no solution to the Irish Border question. But he is so convinced of his own infallibility that he regularly pronounces on a whole set of issues, most of which he turns out to be wrong about.

I'll give you my two pennorth. I don't give a flying f**k what opinions journalists and MPs have on Brexit. I'm not interested in their assurances that everything will be OK, or their comments on the Will of the People, or anything else about their opinions. What I DO listen to is the judgement of people who spend their professional life carefully analysing facts about economics and trade. And as I keep saying, I've yet to hear anything from any of those which says that Brexit will be anything less than a very serious problem - most of them say it will be a f**king catastrophe.

You, on the other hand, seem determined to go scavenging round for articles that support your preconceived decision, whilst ignoring anything from anyone who actually has any expertise on the Brexit issues.

[Sprotyrover]

Sproty.

The rest of the discussion is meaningless. Just concentrate on what the Brexiteer-in-Chief, Rees-Mogg says. Look at the ridiculousness of the content of what he says the post-Brexit situation will be. There is nothing sensible in anything he ever says. His usual approach is a content-free "It'll be fine". Now we know why. Because when he suggests something concrete, it is utterly shambolic.

Point out to me anything that any Brexiteer has ever said in detail about why Brexit will work out well for us.

BST these idiots just take turns grabbing the spot-light one gaff at a time, back to you Boris?.

Sydney we both have a low opinion of each other

Sproty.

The rest of the discussion is meaningless. Just concentrate on what the Brexiteer-in-Chief, Rees-Mogg says. Look at the ridiculousness of the content of what he says the post-Brexit situation will be. There is nothing sensible in anything he ever says. His usual approach is a content-free "It'll be fine". Now we know why. Because when he suggests something concrete, it is utterly shambolic.

Point out to me anything that any Brexiteer has ever said in detail about why Brexit will work out well for us.

The rest of the feed is meaningless but people will read it as I have done
And then wonder why you even bothered posting it.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Sproty.
I posted it because it demonstrates the totally vacuity of thinking about the difficulties of Brexit by those who are leading it. I'd have thought that was obvious, but if you are determined to vanish down the rabbit hole of Twitter opinions, I guess it's inevitable that you will miss the point.

[SydneyRover]

Sproty.

The rest of the discussion is meaningless. Just concentrate on what the Brexiteer-in-Chief, Rees-Mogg says. Look at the ridiculousness of the content of what he says the post-Brexit situation will be. There is nothing sensible in anything he ever says. His usual approach is a content-free "It'll be fine". Now we know why. Because when he suggests something concrete, it is utterly shambolic.

Point out to me anything that any Brexiteer has ever said in detail about why Brexit will work out well for us.

BST these idiots just take turns grabbing the spot-light one gaff at a time, back to you Boris?.

Sydney we both have a low opinion of each other

Sproty.

The rest of the discussion is meaningless. Just concentrate on what the Brexiteer-in-Chief, Rees-Mogg says. Look at the ridiculousness of the content of what he says the post-Brexit situation will be. There is nothing sensible in anything he ever says. His usual approach is a content-free "It'll be fine". Now we know why. Because when he suggests something concrete, it is utterly shambolic.

Point out to me anything that any Brexiteer has ever said in detail about why Brexit will work out well for us.

The rest of the feed is meaningless but people will read it as I have done
And then wonder why you even bothered posting it.

''Sydney we both have a low opinion of each other[quote author=BillyStubbsTears link=topic=263860.msg800492#msg800492''

Sproty, I had to go back and through the posts to see where this came from & I can only think that my caption following a quote from BST was to blame.

''BST these idiots just take turns grabbing the spot-light one gaff at a time, back to you Boris?.''

Which meant: these idiots Rees-Mogg and Boris, not yourself Sproty, I may disagree with you on occasions but I do not have a low opinion of you. SR

[bpoolrover]

https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/06/brexit-britain-property-bubble.        Someone else point of view on it, don’t know why it quoted everyone on last post

Bpool

You are repeatedly making my point for me.

The only people who support Brexit are ideologically fixated politicians, crooks and journalists who think that they are cleverer than anyone else.

Simon Jenkins falls into the latter category. He has no expertise whatsoever on the economics of Brexit. He offers no solution to the Irish Border question. But he is so convinced of his own infallibility that he regularly pronounces on a whole set of issues, most of which he turns out to be wrong about.

I'll give you my two pennorth. I don't give a flying f**k what opinions journalists and MPs have on Brexit. I'm not interested in their assurances that everything will be OK, or their comments on the Will of the People, or anything else about their opinions. What I DO listen to is the judgement of people who spend their professional life carefully analysing facts about economics and trade. And as I keep saying, I've yet to hear anything from any of those which says that Brexit will be anything less than a very serious problem - most of them say it will be a f**king catastrophe.

You, on the other hand, seem determined to go scavenging round for articles that support your preconceived decision, whilst ignoring anything from anyone who actually has any expertise on the Brexit issues.

the problem is bst the people who have studied the economy and try and predict it are wrong as much as they are right, I won't post links as there are so many of them questioning how accurate they are? So how do you no which 1 of them to trust?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Bpool

That is nonsense.

There are SOME economists who are frequently wrong. Like the ones who said that Austerity would produce an expansion in the economy in 2010. Or the one who said that massively raising interest rates and cutting Govt spending at the bottom of the recession in 1981 would spur the economy. (That last one is Patrick Minford - the Govt followed is advice in 1981 and it led to unemployment nearly trebling before they quietly ditched him).

Then again, there are economists who predicted that Austerity was a disaster which wold massively delay recovery from the Great Recession. They were bang on.

The same economists predicted that the Brexit vote would lead to a collapse in the Pound and to a sharp slow down in economic growth (and yes BB, before you start again, I KNOW that Osborne sold that as meaning that there would be a recession and there wasn't a recession because the global economy did better than expected but that doesn't mean the economists were wrong.)

The same economists are predicting that Brexit will have a very serious long-term negative effect on our economy. Minford is saying that it could all work out fine (but even he is saying that it could only work out fine if we cut import tariffs to zero and he accepts that this would destroy the British manufacturing industry and he says that the big Northern cities should be handled by "managed decline" as a result).

Now. ask yourself why the likes of Gove encourage you to ignore experts. And why everyone on the Brexit side of the argument poo-poos the idea that anyone can predict the effect of Brexit on the economy (and their poo-pooing has certainly worked on you).

Could it be because they know there is not a single sensible, credible economist who things it will turn out well? Whilst there are literally dozens who have been right on all the major issues of the last decade who are saying that it will be a f**king catastrophe?

[Bentley Bullet]

Missing me Billy?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Aye. Like a hole in an argument.

[Bentley Bullet]

Plenty of holes in your arguments without me interfering, owd lad!

[Sprotyrover]

Aye. Like a hole in an argument.

Nice one Billy you discredit Milford and then quote him as an authority on Brexit???

[BillyStubbsTears]

No Sproty.

I say that Minford is an ideologically driven menace.

He is one of the right-wing economists (and there are many) who makes a logical case for why right-wing policies CAN work in the long run, but glosses over the fact that in the meantime there will be horrific disolocations to an economy.

I didn't discredit him. I DO say that the one and only time his policies were put into effect (by Thatcher in 1981) the immediate and medium term effects were appalling, especially for areas like South Yorkshire. He may well have been right to claim that, if Thatcher had held her nerve, things would have worked out right in the end. Equally, he may well be right that if we follow his prescription on Brexit, we'd come out with a stronger economy by 2040. But it's all beside the point. Because the effect in the meatime would be horrific, just like it was horrific in the 1980s. And no Govt would go through with that. just like even Thatcher bottled it and binned him in 1982.

[bpoolrover]

https://amp.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/05/chief-economist-of-bank-of-england-admits-errors 1 to start with there are hundreds more some on brexit most failing to predict the funicular crash plus much more

[BillyStubbsTears]

BPool.

1) Financial crash. There is a big point about crashes. No one can predict them. Because they depend on the interaction between many unpredictable reactions across the world. So in the case of the Great Financial Crash, no one knew how Bush's Govt would react to the failure of a major bank. No one knew just how badly leveraged banks were against a crazy housing bubble.

2) On SPECIFIC issues, like the consequence of a country deciding to make it far harder to trade with half a billion of the richest people on its doorstep, it's much easier to make predictions.

Here's an obvious analogy.

No one can predict exactly where every side will finish in the Premier league this year. There are too many variables that can't be guessed at. Injuries. Form. Stupid managerial decisions. inspired managerial decisions. Investment. lack of investment.

BUT.

If Spurs decide to play every match with three players having their legs tied together, you could pretty accurately predict that they would do much worse than they did last season.

That's the equivalent of trying to predict the effect on the whole world of the Great Financial Crash and trying to predict the effect on our country of Brexit.

And finally, as regards the belief in experts, here's a quote from that article you posted.

"Former Tory ministers, including the former foreign secretary William Hague and the former justice secretary Michael Gove, last year attacked the Bank of England governor, Mark Carney, for predicting a dramatic slowdown in growth if the country voted to leave the EU."

Thing is, we HAVE had a dramatic slowdown in growth since the vote. That is a fact. In 2016 we had the fastest growing economy in the G7. Now we have the slowest growing economy. We've lost about £60bn as a result of that slowdown.

Me, I'm f**king livid at that, because it means that I have to work harder just to stand still. Seems like you don't give a f**k about that. and that you still refuse to accept that the people who predicted that might have had a point.

[hoolahoop]

BPool.

1) Financial crash. There is a big point about crashes. No one can predict them. Because they depend on the interaction between many unpredictable reactions across the world. So in the case of the Great Financial Crash, no one knew how Bush's Govt would react to the failure of a major bank. No one knew just how badly leveraged banks were against a crazy housing bubble.

2) On SPECIFIC issues, like the consequence of a country deciding to make it far harder to trade with half a billion of the richest people on its doorstep, it's much easier to make predictions.

Here's an obvious analogy.

No one can predict exactly where every side will finish in the Premier league this year. There are too many variables that can't be guessed at. Injuries. Form. Stupid managerial decisions. inspired managerial decisions. Investment. lack of investment.

BUT.

If Spurs decide to play every match with three players having their legs tied together, you could pretty accurately predict that they would do much worse than they did last season.

That's the equivalent of trying to predict the effect on the whole world of the Great Financial Crash and trying to predict the effect on our country of Brexit.

And finally, as regards the belief in experts, here's a quote from that article you posted.

"Former Tory ministers, including the former foreign secretary William Hague and the former justice secretary Michael Gove, last year attacked the Bank of England governor, Mark Carney, for predicting a dramatic slowdown in growth if the country voted to leave the EU."

Thing is, we HAVE had a dramatic slowdown in growth since the vote. That is a fact. In 2016 we had the fastest growing economy in the G7. Now we have the slowest growing economy. We've lost about £60bn as a result of that slowdown.

Me, I'm f**king livid at that, because it means that I have to work harder just to stand still. Seems like you don't give a f**k about that. and that you still refuse to accept that the people who predicted that might have had a point.

Excellent post bst, however sadly I think however accurate it's portrayal of current events, it is wasted on those whose refusal to consider, let alone accept any of the points raised. Some would prefer to stay within their mental safety net of lies and propaganda rather than grudgingly accept they have and are still being conned by charlatans out to make a quick and iffy buck at both their and our expense.

As ever it takes a big man / woman to accept they might have been misled and rather than confront these issues, they continue to believe those lies , exaggerations and pipe dreams that the snake oil salesmen are allowed to disseminate to them on a daily basis.

[Sprotyrover]

No Sproty.

I say that Minford is an ideologically driven menace.

He is one of the right-wing economists (and there are many) who makes a logical case for why right-wing policies CAN work in the long run, but glosses over the fact that in the meantime there will be horrific disolocations to an economy.

I didn't discredit him. I DO say that the one and only time his policies were put into effect (by Thatcher in 1981) the immediate and medium term effects were appalling, especially for areas like South Yorkshire. He may well have been right to claim that, if Thatcher had held her nerve, things would have worked out right in the end. Equally, he may well be right that if we follow his prescription on Brexit, we'd come out with a stronger economy by 2040. But it's all beside the point. Because the effect in the meatime would be horrific, just like it was horrific in the 1980s. And no Govt would go through with that. just like even Thatcher bottled it and binned him in 1982.

The antics of the NUM were mainly responsible for the economic decline in South Yorkshire, they took on the Government of the time ,they lost the battle, the Thatcher Goverment then decided to teach us all a lesson and totally neglected the area for almost a decade. Quoting South Yorkshire is a poor example of economic mismanagement it was done on purpose.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Sproty.

You don't half talk some garbage when you have a ridiculous position to defend. Saying that the NUM was mainly responsible for the problems in South Yorkshire is ridiculous.

South Yorkshire's economy was already in crisis by the time the Miners' Strike started. As was the economy of the entire old Industrial North.

Have a look at the figures in Table 1 here.
https://www.persee.fr/doc/espos_0755-7809_1985_num_3_2_1046

1.5million manufacturing jobs lost between June 1980 and June 1983. And March 1981 was when Thatcher and Howe implemented the suicidal policies advocated by Patrick Minford.

Then look at the figures in Table 2. By 1984 (before anyone had lost their jobs due to the Strike) unemployment in Yorks & Humber was 14.3%. In the North it was 18.1%. In the North West it was 16.0%. In the West Midlands it was 15.2%.

Our entire manufacturing industry and the areas that depended on it were decimated in the early 1980s. Nothing to do with the Strike. Everything to do with the policies of Patrick f**king Minford. The only senior economist who thinks Brexit is a good idea.

[hoolahoop]

Yep it doesnt read well does it and I wonder just how massaged our " real " underlying unemployment figures are now - Youth in FE , minimum wage and Zero and Part - time  hour contracts notwithstanding.

Just how much of the workforce actually earn decent wages under the present Govts. philosophy ?

[Glyn_Wigley]

No Sproty.

I say that Minford is an ideologically driven menace.

He is one of the right-wing economists (and there are many) who makes a logical case for why right-wing policies CAN work in the long run, but glosses over the fact that in the meantime there will be horrific disolocations to an economy.

I didn't discredit him. I DO say that the one and only time his policies were put into effect (by Thatcher in 1981) the immediate and medium term effects were appalling, especially for areas like South Yorkshire. He may well have been right to claim that, if Thatcher had held her nerve, things would have worked out right in the end. Equally, he may well be right that if we follow his prescription on Brexit, we'd come out with a stronger economy by 2040. But it's all beside the point. Because the effect in the meatime would be horrific, just like it was horrific in the 1980s. And no Govt would go through with that. just like even Thatcher bottled it and binned him in 1982.

The antics of the NUM were mainly responsible for the economic decline in South Yorkshire, they took on the Government of the time ,they lost the battle, the Thatcher Goverment then decided to teach us all a lesson and totally neglected the area for almost a decade. Quoting South Yorkshire is a poor example of economic mismanagement it was done on purpose.

So doubling - if not trebling - unemployment five years before the miner's strike was the NUM's fault was it? Tosh.

[SydneyRover]

Hey Sproty, never say I dont give you a leg up or respect your views, here is a freebie, maybe a first on this thread, something to celebrate, a good news story, something that will bring a warm glow to everyones heart. People will remember this as the turning point, a point in time when the Brexit fairy tale delivered. There are critics but just ignore them and feel the love.

Last year, Britain exported £2.4bn worth of goods to the six African countries included in Ms May’s deal - just 0.7 per cent of the value of its exports to the EU and the rest of the world combined, which were worth £339bn.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GcZAwoip5aY

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/uk-trade-deal-africa-theresa-may-trip-post-brexit-eu-rollover-a8511871.html

[Muttley]

Last year, Britain exported £2.4bn worth of goods to the six African countries included in Ms May’s deal - just 0.7 per cent of the value of its exports to the EU and the rest of the world combined, which were worth £339bn.

And Brexiteers will argue that this shows the massive potential of the African market - there's twice as many people in Africa than in the EU, all we need to do is get some of our expensive fruit, veg, meat, cheese and specialty jams on their shelves and trade will boom! ;-)

[BillyStubbsTears]

A trade expert summed it up on Radio 4 this morning.

He said May is visiting South Africa, Nigeria and Kenya. Their collective GDP is less than that of Spain. So whatever trade we do with Africa is not going to compensate for making it harder to trade with the EU. And yes, of course we should be trying to increase trade with Africa. But we could do that whilst remaining members of the EU. Germany currently exports 3 times as much as we do to South Africa. Belgium and The Netherlands between them currently export nearly six times as much as we do to Nigeria. If they can do it whilst retaining all the benefits of the EU, why can't we?

[Sprotyrover]

Hey Sproty, never say I dont give you a leg up or respect your views, here is a freebie, maybe a first on this thread, something to celebrate, a good news story, something that will bring a warm glow to everyones heart. People will remember this as the turning point, a point in time when the Brexit fairy tale delivered. There are critics but just ignore them and feel the love.

Last year, Britain exported £2.4bn worth of goods to the six African countries included in Ms May’s deal - just 0.7 per cent of the value of its exports to the EU and the rest of the world combined, which were worth £339bn.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GcZAwoip5aY

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/uk-trade-deal-africa-theresa-may-trip-post-brexit-eu-rollover-a8511871.html

Hey Sydney, interesting to see that an agriculturally backward Nation is planning to take advantage of Brexit and intends sending us such delicacies as burnt Goat Heads and GM Modified meat, a right set of scumbag scoundrels by all accounts!

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-trade-meat-banned-eu-australia-beef-liam-fox-dit-friends-of-the-earth-a8475006.html

[SydneyRover]

Hey Sproty, never say I dont give you a leg up or respect your views, here is a freebie, maybe a first on this thread, something to celebrate, a good news story, something that will bring a warm glow to everyones heart. People will remember this as the turning point, a point in time when the Brexit fairy tale delivered. There are critics but just ignore them and feel the love.

Last year, Britain exported £2.4bn worth of goods to the six African countries included in Ms May’s deal - just 0.7 per cent of the value of its exports to the EU and the rest of the world combined, which were worth £339bn.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GcZAwoip5aY

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/uk-trade-deal-africa-theresa-may-trip-post-brexit-eu-rollover-a8511871.html

Hey Sydney, interesting to see that an agriculturally backward Nation is planning to take advantage of Brexit and intends sending us such delicacies as burnt Goat Heads and GM Modified meat, a right set of scumbag scoundrels by all accounts!

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-trade-meat-banned-eu-australia-beef-liam-fox-dit-friends-of-the-earth-a8475006.html

Mmmmm, I hear you can make a good winter soup from burnt goat heads, cant wait.

[bpoolrover]

Bpool

That is nonsense.

There are SOME economists who are frequently wrong. Like the ones who said that Austerity would produce an expansion in the economy in 2010. Or the one who said that massively raising interest rates and cutting Govt spending at the bottom of the recession in 1981 would spur the economy. (That last one is Patrick Minford - the Govt followed is advice in 1981 and it led to unemployment nearly trebling before they quietly ditched him).

Then again, there are economists who predicted that Austerity was a disaster which wold massively delay recovery from the Great Recession. They were bang on.

The same economists predicted that the Brexit vote would lead to a collapse in the Pound and to a sharp slow down in economic growth (and yes BB, before you start again, I KNOW that Osborne sold that as meaning that there would be a recession and there wasn't a recession because the global economy did better than expected but that doesn't mean the economists were wrong.)

The same economists are predicting that Brexit will have a very serious long-term negative effect on our economy. Minford is saying that it could all work out fine (but even he is saying that it could only work out fine if we cut import tariffs to zero and he accepts that this would destroy the British manufacturing industry and he says that the big Northern cities should be handled by "managed decline" as a result).

Now. ask yourself why the likes of Gove encourage you to ignore experts. And why everyone on the Brexit side of the argument poo-poos the idea that anyone can predict the effect of Brexit on the economy (and their poo-pooing has certainly worked on you).

Could it be because they know there is not a single sensible, credible economist who things it will turn out well? Whilst there are literally dozens who have been right on all the major issues of the last decade who are saying that it will be a f**king catastrophe?

2 thirds wrong about brexit so far bst, are any of the ones you follow in that 2 thirds ?

[BillyStubbsTears]

I haven't got a scooby what you're on about Bpool. What 2/3rds?

[Monkcaster_Rover]

Seen this thread going for ages so thought I'd have a quick gander.

I'm happy everyone's at each other's throats. I'd be disappointed if it was a proper debate without anyone throwing sly digs at one another.

Carry on, all.

[Bentley Bullet]

Hey Sproty, never say I dont give you a leg up or respect your views, here is a freebie, maybe a first on this thread, something to celebrate, a good news story, something that will bring a warm glow to everyones heart. People will remember this as the turning point, a point in time when the Brexit fairy tale delivered. There are critics but just ignore them and feel the love.

Last year, Britain exported £2.4bn worth of goods to the six African countries included in Ms May’s deal - just 0.7 per cent of the value of its exports to the EU and the rest of the world combined, which were worth £339bn.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GcZAwoip5aY

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/uk-trade-deal-africa-theresa-may-trip-post-brexit-eu-rollover-a8511871.html

Hey Sydney, interesting to see that an agriculturally backward Nation is planning to take advantage of Brexit and intends sending us such delicacies as burnt Goat Heads and GM Modified meat, a right set of scumbag scoundrels by all accounts!

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-trade-meat-banned-eu-australia-beef-liam-fox-dit-friends-of-the-earth-a8475006.html

Now't new, they've been getting away with sending us that Fosters Lager shite for years.

[RedJ]

Seen this thread going for ages so thought I'd have a quick gander.

I'm happy everyone's at each other's throats. I'd be disappointed if it was a proper debate without anyone throwing sly digs at one another.

Carry on, all.

Care to discuss this in the car park?

[idler]

You forgot the smiley face RedJ.🙂