Brexit Negotiations

[BillyStubbsTears]

What Fox is saying is the precise equivalent of saying:

"Football pundits? Not one of them predicted the final positions of every side in the Premier League last year. So obviously we should ignore them if they say that a team that spends half what everyone else spends is likely to do worse than the other sides on average over the next decade."

[Bentley Bullet]

BST.
I put that link up to show that I probably wasn't the only who voted to remain on a 'pretty serious misconception'.

[hoolahoop]

Hoola, I always answer people who ask a sensible question that is worth spending time on answering. I'll also respond to people who post untruths about things I've said, especially when they are held in high regard and relied upon for factual accuracy like BST is.

I'm not quite sure I asked you a question but he -ho when I do have one for you , I will ensure you are aware of it.
Look we all know this subject is highly emotive but this is turning into a massive war of words wherever you go , does it need to be here ?

I know you have had many doubts that you had put your X in the right box - right from your first posts when I thought you had voted Leave . Strangely enough , I had the same fears as you about my pension pots only to find they have increased disproportionately post - Brexit . However as I was planning to use a large amount of that money abroad - I have lost out massively due to the exchange rate and any dreams of retiring abroad probably will have to be shelved .

Double whammy daughter being  at Copenhagen Uni and emigration plans hence my interest in Brexit . Good luck with your pension for now if your circumstances are different to mine. Perhaps you might now understand where I'm coming from

[BillyStubbsTears]

BB

I'm sure there were plenty who did.

I'm less sure what on earth that has to do with what we were talking about.

[Bentley Bullet]

BST. It had nothing to do with what we were talking about other than it was the reason why I voted to remain. The Link I used to prove that I have shown concerns about Brexit contained this, and it was YOU who brought it up.

 I honestly thought about removing that bit of the link so as not to divert the argument but I didn't, and it did.

[hoolahoop]

Surely BB,  there was far more to your vote than your interest in your pension, what about other considerations ?

[SydneyRover]

Because Cameron & his government set a precedent & had a vote & the vote turned out to be corrupted/misinformed then the only democratic way forward is to have a second vote with all the available information out in the open. It appears that the population is way ahead of the politicians on this score and they cannot be trusted with the future.

Michel Barnier 'strongly opposed' to May's Brexit plan


https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-45389610

[BillyStubbsTears]

Sydney

It's very sole really. This is nothing g to do with democracy or The Will of The People.

It's all to do with trying to hold the Tory party together. A second referendum would tear the Tories apart. So May will fight tooth and nail to prevent it.

If they thought a second d referendum would heal the Tory party rifts, we'd have one tomorrow.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Who'd have thought it eh? The...err...honourable Liam Fox who this morning was castigating the Chancellor for having the gall to make predictions about OUR economy fifteen years down the line.

Have a guess what he said about the GLOBAL economy a couple of weeks back.

https://mobile.twitter.com/henrymance/status/1036231658603773953

To think. Our future is in the hands of f**king snake oil salesmen like this odious Kitson.

You're being had folks. I still don't fully get why they are doing it, but a handful of right wing MPs are lifting your shirt. Tell you that economic predictions are b*llocks. Except when they support what they want to tell you.

And it's obviously hitting the intended targets with some folk on here.

[SydneyRover]

Who'd have thought it eh? The...err...honourable Liam Fox who this morning was castigating the Chancellor for having the gall to make predictions about OUR economy fifteen years down the line.

Have a guess what he said about the GLOBAL economy a couple of weeks back.

https://mobile.twitter.com/henrymance/status/1036231658603773953

To think. Our future is in the hands of f**king snake oil salesmen like this odious Kitson.

You're being had folks. I still don't fully get why they are doing it, but a handful of right wing MPs are lifting your shirt. Tell you that economic predictions are b*llocks. Except when they support what they want to tell you.

And it's obviously hitting the intended targets with some folk on here.

Lies and cons are so easily forgotten BST like two minute noodles, cheap easily digested by the masses.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Who'd have thought it eh? The...err...honourable Liam Fox who this morning was castigating the Chancellor for having the gall to make predictions about OUR economy fifteen years down the line.

Have a guess what he said about the GLOBAL economy a couple of weeks back.

https://mobile.twitter.com/henrymance/status/1036231658603773953

To think. Our future is in the hands of f**king snake oil salesmen like this odious Kitson.

You're being had folks. I still don't fully get why they are doing it, but a handful of right wing MPs are lifting your shirt. Tell you that economic predictions are b*llocks. Except when they support what they want to tell you.

And it's obviously hitting the intended targets with some folk on here.

We can't say he didn't give us fair warning of his relationship with the truth though.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/liam-fox-tweet-photo-on-screen-as-tory-minister-denies-sending-it-a7626841.html

[BillyStubbsTears]

And now we're getting closer to the core of what Brexit is about.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45392105

Johnson washes his hands of actually dealing with the f**king mess that he has caused and says "Well of COURSE Brexit will be a disaster if you do it YOUR way."

This is what it was always about. That bas**rd manoeuvring to become PM.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Unreal isn't it? There used to be big consequences for politicians who lied. Now we just expect it. We shrug our shoulders and move on.

Who'd have thought it eh? The...err...honourable Liam Fox who this morning was castigating the Chancellor for having the gall to make predictions about OUR economy fifteen years down the line.

Have a guess what he said about the GLOBAL economy a couple of weeks back.

https://mobile.twitter.com/henrymance/status/1036231658603773953

To think. Our future is in the hands of f**king snake oil salesmen like this odious Kitson.

You're being had folks. I still don't fully get why they are doing it, but a handful of right wing MPs are lifting your shirt. Tell you that economic predictions are b*llocks. Except when they support what they want to tell you.

And it's obviously hitting the intended targets with some folk on here.

We can't say he didn't give us fair warning of his relationship with the truth though.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/liam-fox-tweet-photo-on-screen-as-tory-minister-denies-sending-it-a7626841.html

[Glyn_Wigley]

And now we're getting closer to the core of what Brexit is about.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45392105

Johnson washes his hands of actually dealing with the f**king mess that he has caused and says "Well of COURSE Brexit will be a disaster if you do it YOUR way."

This is what it was always about. That bas**rd manoeuvring to become PM.

All without offering the slightest hint of what proposals he'd put in front of the EU, of course.

[The Red Baron]

And now we're getting closer to the core of what Brexit is about.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45392105

Johnson washes his hands of actually dealing with the f**king mess that he has caused and says "Well of COURSE Brexit will be a disaster if you do it YOUR way."

This is what it was always about. That bas**rd manoeuvring to become PM.

All without offering the slightest hint of what proposals he'd put in front of the EU, of course.

If you asked him he would probably be a bit like the man who when asked for directions replied "well, I wouldn't start from here."

And in some respects, he would be right. Chequers has the feeling of a gambit rather than a deal, and that is how the EU appears to be treating it. The whole point is that something should have been put forward much earlier by the UK side, preferably immediately after Article 50 was triggered. As a member of the Government at the time, Boris Johnson has to take responsibility for the fact that it took the best part of 18 months to come up with Chequers, feeble as it is.

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB

But that's the whole point. There is NO deal that is both acceptable to the EU and acceptable to the Tory Brexiters. That's been the reality all along and the Govt has been doing its level best to avoid facing up to this reality.

So first of all they ignored the situation altogether. Then, as the crisis moment approaches, they came up with the Chequers Fudge which is halfway between what is acceptale to both sides, but not actually acceptable to either.

Johnson has been playing HIS game all along. Bang the drum for a Great Britannia approach to the negotiations, knowing damn well that we don't have any cards to play with. Then, when the decision point comes, resign and claim that we're all being sold down the river. So that when May is forced out (and she will be within the next 12 months) and we are faced with a shambles of a Brexit situation, he can roll back in saying, "If only *I* had been in charge all along..."

This article is his first salvo in that coming battle. But it's got sweet FA to do with what's a good Brexit outcome and anyone who rallies to his side is either equally complicit in the deception or is a useful idiot.

[MachoMadness]

At least she's found a spine now, or at the very least half a vertebrae: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/03/we-have-gone-into-battle-with-white-flag-fluttering-boris-attacks-mays-chequers-plan

“There’s no new ideas in this article to respond to. What we need at this time is serious leadership with a serious plan. That’s exactly what the country has with this prime minister and this Brexit plan.”

[BillyStubbsTears]

She made a very serious error on judgement in not sacking Johnson when he was inside the cabinet and undermining her.

She accepted his undermining because she feared a leadership challenge. But no-one is going to challenge her this side of the final Brexit deal, because the contenders want HER to be the lightning conductor who takes all the shit about Brexit. The gloves are off once the terms of the deal or the no deal are known. Then they'll knife her and claim that whatever she gets is not as good as they could have got. Of course, they don't actually want to be responsible for the negotiations because they know it's an impossible taks. What they are all doing (Johnson, Rees-Mogg, Gove etc) is positioning themselves for the hot seat once the Brexit shambles that we are heading into has run its course.

Of course, if the economy and the country's reputation get f**ked all over in the meantime, that's just unfortunate collateral damage. It's secondary to the personal ambitions of the Tory Boys.

[The Red Baron]

At least she's found a spine now, or at the very least half a vertebrae: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/03/we-have-gone-into-battle-with-white-flag-fluttering-boris-attacks-mays-chequers-plan

“There’s no new ideas in this article to respond to. What we need at this time is serious leadership with a serious plan. That’s exactly what the country has with this prime minister and this Brexit plan.”

Brave talk but too little too late. The Chequers plan has more holes than a Swiss cheese. And when Hilary Benn, Rees-Mogg and Barnier (all from different positions) agree it won't fly it's time to draw a veil over it.

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB

Then we're in crisis mode.

Two choices:

1) No deal crash-out Brexit in March.

2) Go cap in hand to the EU and beg for an extension to give us time to get our shit in a sock.

1 will be an unmitigated catastrophe.

2 will lead to the EU saying: "Right. Sit down and shut up. YOU have been a bleeding shambles over the past 2 years. Now WE are going to tell you how it's going to be and it's going to be like THIS."

Or, we could take the grown up Route 3 and have another vote...

[wilts rover]

There is absolutely no chance of a no-deal Brexit, for the reasons we have said on here many times.

So for your other two options I would like to add in:

3) the Hotel California scenario, postponing article 50 and staying in for some vague date in the future

4) a general election (which May is reported to have consulted about over the weekend)

[The Red Baron]

There is absolutely no chance of a no-deal Brexit, for the reasons we have said on here many times.

So for your other two options I would like to add in:

3) the Hotel California scenario, postponing article 50 and staying in for some vague date in the future

4) a general election (which May is reported to have consulted about over the weekend)

I agree with the alternatives and a General Election becomes more likely if May resigns either as a result of the EU formally rejecting Chequers, or losing a vote in Parliament.

I think the Tory MP Nick Boles pointed towards the Hotel California scenario at the weekend. His plan is to be members of the EEA for a period during which negotiations could continue. In practice that arrangement could well become permanent. So far no significant political figure has picked up this particular ball and run with it, but I a feeling they will.

[BillyStubbsTears]

The Hotel California outcome is pretty much what I meant by option 2. But anyone thinking we'll have any leverage over the EU on negotiating terms of that is deluding themselves.

As for a General Election, yes I could see one coming but I don't see how that gets us any closer to determining a deal that the EU would accept. Both main parties have stances which are unacceptable to the EU. Labour is just in the relatively fortunate position that its stance hasn't had much scrutiny. But Corbyn's position that he wants a Brexit deal that leaves us no worse off is pie in the sky that disintegrates as soon as you start looking into it.

So, realistically, we're looking at no deal (which no same person wants, but then no same person wanted WWI and politicians blundered into that) or a deferment on terms that will be dictated to us.

Or of course, we go and apologise for our emotional spasm, say we've grown up and ask everyone to forget the last 2 years and pretend they never happened.

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB

Nick Boles said tonight that the odds on them being able to get Chequers through the Commons are as close to zero as makes no difference. And he's a supporter of it.

[The Red Baron]

The Hotel California outcome is pretty much what I meant by option 2. But anyone thinking we'll have any leverage over the EU on negotiating terms of that is deluding themselves.

As for a General Election, yes I could see one coming but I don't see how that gets us any closer to determining a deal that the EU would accept. Both main parties have stances which are unacceptable to the EU. Labour is just in the relatively fortunate position that its stance hasn't had much scrutiny. But Corbyn's position that he wants a Brexit deal that leaves us no worse off is pie in the sky that disintegrates as soon as you start looking into it.

So, realistically, we're looking at no deal (which no same person wants, but then no same person wanted WWI and politicians blundered into that) or a deferment on terms that will be dictated to us.

Or of course, we go and apologise for our emotional spasm, say we've grown up and ask everyone to forget the last 2 years and pretend they never happened.

Your last paragraph can only realistically happen if (a) we have another referendum based on the final deal (b) Remaining in on current terms is one of the options and (c) that Remain option wins the vote convincingly. Can you see all of that happening, because I can't?

I guess that once the reality of No Deal really dawns that finding some way to kick the can down the road will gain more appeal.

[The Red Baron]

TRB

Nick Boles said tonight that the odds on them being able to get Chequers through the Commons are as close to zero as makes no difference. And he's a supporter of it.

I think he was a supporter of Chequers because although he supported Remain he's been one of the Tory MPs who hoped we'd arrive at a workable Brexit. But now he realises that Chequers won't fly.

[Donnywolf]

Guilty of Posting on here for 2nd time since April (I deleted the last one)

What would be the odds that Politicians being the turncoats they ALL are cave in and offer we the People a Second Vote after all ONCE the final deal is known

Then if the people accept the Deal and it goes eventually goes t**s up for the Nation(s) (I have to concede nobody knows whether it will or not) they will be able to say. Ah yes but dont forget its what the people wanted. They voted Leave in the Referendum and then when we got the best deal we could for them they confirmed we still wanted to leave

(After all the Major Parties blame each others stretgies and decisions and legacies even years and years later)

However if the People in the Second vote think the deal we have secured is crap and they want none of it and Vote to stay in the EU by whatever margin the Politicians have a great fall back position in that they will say " well we put it to the People and they have voted to stay " thus having an instant "scapegoat" in the people who voted to reject the deal

I hope thats my lot for all time !

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB

I fully appreciate that the 3rd option won't happen in the real world, even though it's the one that would produce the best outcome for the country.

Too many politicians have too much to lose by championing that route.

May and the Tories have gone all in on Hard Brexit and The Will of The People.

Corbyn was up at sparrowfart on the morning after the vote insisting that we must trigger Article 50 immediately.

There's no way any of the current main leaders could possibly row back on that even as it becomes clearer and clearer the effect that Russian money and illegal data harvesting had on the vote.

The only non-catastrophic realistic option is the never-ending transition deal. But that will be far worse than the status quo. And we'll look like bleeding idiots.

[wilts rover]

Billy, whatever happens (and we can be sure a lot will) we are going to look like bleeding idiots. We look like bleeding idiots now triggering article 50 without a clue to what we wanted instead until 6 months before leaving - and then coming up with proposals that united everybody, remainers, leavers and the EU, only because they all hated them!

According to the latest polling the majority of constituencies in the UK now support remain. I think if there was an election this autumn that might concentrate a few minds and you might find the main parties adjusting their positions accordingly. Although they do have to be very aware of alienating leave voters and where that might lead.
https://www.bestforbritain.org/map

It should be an interesting party conference season first tho.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Agreed on all points Wilts.

A lovely mess we've got ourselves into int it?