Brexit Negotiations

[BillyStubbsTears]

Hound.

Yes I do. Not because of party pitical preference. Because of logic.

Look at the problem.

If we (the entire UK) leaves the CU and SM, we have brought in a hard border between NI and RoI.

That destabilises the GFA. And would badly affect the RoI economy. So, if we go that route, there is no way the EU will give us a beneficial deal.

The solution to that is to stay in (or effectively stay in) the CU and SM. But that is unacceptable to a very large number of Tory MPs.

And THAT is the core of the current clusterf**k. It is not possible to get a deal that gives us good trading arrangements with the EU AND satisfies the Tory party. Full stop.

That's been predictable since before the vote. But we were assured that the Ireland border thing wasn't an issue.

Labour doesn't have that problem because Labour's agreed policy IS to stay tied into the CU and SM. It's still not as sensible a deal as simply remaining, but it does offer the possibility of a not-as-bad-as-it-might-be deal with the EU.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Well, if you judge PMs by their judgement and on the effect they have on our appearance to the rest of the world, you're going to struggle to find 3 worse ones than Eden, Cameron and May.

And that's before you go into the unmitigated disaster that was Austerity.

Cameron demonstrated that he didn't understand basic undergraduate-level economics.

He was unable to keep the lid on the civil war that has engulfed the Tory party for the past 2 generations.

And in a bid to stop that war, he had the most monumentally wrong headed domestic decision of any PM I can think of. (And I'm not saying that because the side I supported lost. I'm saying that because the side HE supported lost. His decision to hold a referendum led directly to the end of his tenure.)

BST,   Is that a response to my last post, also addressed to you?

No. It was aimed at BS.

[Not Now Kato]

Yeah.

Imagine. We ask people to vote and the ones who lose start shooting people.

Perhaps after a 2nd referrendum, we could have a 3rd and call it best of 3 ?

Erm, we've already had 3 Boomstick, please keep up.

No we haven't ..... ?

I'm afraid we have BS.  Maybe you're too young to remember the first two?

[Filo]

And another one resigns!!

[Not Now Kato]

And another one resigns!!

ayep.  Now Esther McVey. There's not going to be many left at this rate!

[BillyStubbsTears]

BS

There's a thing about the 2016 referendum that you don't ever seen to have picked up on, despite it being discussed in here ad nauseum.

I don't mean the lies from the Leave side, the criminal use of social media profiling and the funding from the Kremlin. As a patriot and a democrat, you don't seem concerned about those so there's no point raising them again.

The point is, it was a binary decision on something that wasn't a binary choice.

The choice was Remain or Leave.

But there was never one "thing" called "Leave". There were infinite shades from  No Deal to Brexit in Name Only.

And there's the problem.

There is no majority in the country for any particular type of Brexit. So ant Brexit that we DO get will be opposed by a majority of the population.

Now that we know this Govt is unable to get any deal with the EU that it can support, we have three choices.

1) The Govt resigns and is replaced by a Labour Govt that CAN arrange a deal. But that deal won't satisfy Hard Brexiters or Remainers.

2) The Govt grits it's teeth and leads us into a No Deal Brexit. But that won't satisfy Remainers and Soft Brexiters.

3) We have anitger referendum with a genuine binary decision. No Deal Vs Remain.

Which one of those don't you think is morally the most correct path?

[Not Now Kato]

Two more.... Suella Braveman and Annemarie Trevelyan resign - they're going down like ninepins....


Next?

[BillyStubbsTears]

And another one resigns!!

ayep.  Now Esther McVey. There's not going to be many left at this rate!

I suspect May will be out within a week.

There'll be a vote of no confidence in her this week.

[Filo]

And another one resigns!!

ayep.  Now Esther McVey. There's not going to be many left at this rate!

Horrible woman good riddence

[Boomstick]

Yeah.

Imagine. We ask people to vote and the ones who lose start shooting people.

Perhaps after a 2nd referrendum, we could have a 3rd and call it best of 3 ?

Erm, we've already had 3 Boomstick, please keep up.

No we haven't ..... ?

I'm afraid we have BS.  Maybe you're too young to remember the first two?

Perhaps your too old to realise they have no bearing on the current one.

[Filo]

A General Election must surely be on the horizon now

[Boomstick]

BS

There's a thing about the 2016 referendum that you don't ever seen to have picked up on, despite it being discussed in here ad nauseum.

I don't mean the lies from the Leave side, the criminal use of social media profiling and the funding from the Kremlin. As a patriot and a democrat, you don't seem concerned about those so there's no point raising them again.

The point is, it was a binary decision on something that wasn't a binary choice.

The choice was Remain or Leave.

But there was never one "thing" called "Leave". There were infinite shades from  No Deal to Brexit in Name Only.

And there's the problem.

There is no majority in the country for any particular type of Brexit. So ant Brexit that we DO get will be opposed by a majority of the population.

Now that we know this Govt is unable to get any deal with the EU that it can support, we have three choices.

1) The Govt resigns and is replaced by a Labour Govt that CAN arrange a deal. But that deal won't satisfy Hard Brexiters or Remainers.

2) The Govt grits it's teeth and leads us into a No Deal Brexit. But that won't satisfy Remainers and Soft Brexiters.

3) We have anitger referendum with a genuine binary decision. No Deal Vs Remain.

Which one of those don't you think is morally the most correct path?

Right, I have some sympathy for your point of view.
But I believe out of those choices you presented, the 2nd would be the least terrible.
Although there are other options .

[BillyStubbsTears]

This is naughty, but understandable.
https://mobile.twitter.com/MichelBarnier/status/1063008449808740352

Interpretation.

"Britain. We've reached a deal. We're approaching these negotiations in  a professional  and organised  way.  We're ready to move onto the next stage.

"Britain? Hello? HELLLLOOO!"

[BillyStubbsTears]

So you think an outcome that only about 1/4 of the population supports, and which was never discussed as a serious option in the 2016 campaign would be the most democratic outcome BS?

[BillyStubbsTears]

And what other options are there?

[BillyStubbsTears]

And another one.

https://mobile.twitter.com/eucopresident/status/1062974734193823744

[Boomstick]

So you think an outcome that only about 1/4 of the population supports, and which was never discussed as a serious option in the 2016 campaign would be the most democratic outcome BS?

I staunchly believe anyone who voted leave, knew a hard brexit was a possibility, and I dare say many actually would prefer this.
The working class areas that voted leave, cared not for the economic consequences, afterall it will mainly be London that feels the brunt.
They voted leave for 2 reasons .
1.British sovereignty
2. Immigration.

[Herbert Anchovy]

This is naughty, but understandable.
https://mobile.twitter.com/MichelBarnier/status/1063008449808740352

Interpretation.

"Britain. We've reached a deal. We're approaching these negotiations in  a professional  and organised  way.  We're ready to move onto the next stage.

"Britain? Hello? HELLLLOOO!"

Pretty much sums up the EU attitude nicely

[MachoMadness]

And another one resigns!!

ayep.  Now Esther McVey. There's not going to be many left at this rate!

Horrible woman good riddence

Do you think she'll need some help with her Universal Credit application?

[Herbert Anchovy]

And another one resigns!!

ayep.  Now Esther McVey. There's not going to be many left at this rate!

One good thing from this mess then

[Filo]

And another one resigns!!

ayep.  Now Esther McVey. There's not going to be many left at this rate!

Horrible woman good riddence

Do you think she'll need some help with her Universal Credit application?

I hope she can explain what she’s being doing to find work since 10am 😀😀

[bobjimwilly]

just watching bbc parliament. not one mp, tory or otherwise, has stood up so far and agreed with her opening speech on the brexit deal. There is no way this agreement will be passed by the house. What a f**king shit show.

[BillyStubbsTears]

BS

But it's not about what you believe is it?

[BillyStubbsTears]

HA

Yep. Organised, principled, consistent. That's the way they've approached the negotiation.

Whereas we have been a clusterf**k of shambolic amateurs.

[SydneyRover]

For the last two years we have listened to this government tell us chapter and verse how they were going to negotiate a deal to leave the eu, while almost everyone else said they couldn't do it, it can't be done. And here we are with a mess far worse than the day after the referendum, I still can't fathom how this mob ever gets into parliament.

[Boomstick]

A General Election must surely be on the horizon now

What would that achieve ?

[Filo]

A General Election must surely be on the horizon now

What would that achieve ?

Probably a change of Government

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

A General Election must surely be on the horizon now

What would that achieve ?

Probably a change of Government

Aye but the opposition would then have to agree to what they want Brexit to be - which they probably couldn't either.  Reight royal mess.

Much more chance of a no deal exit I reckon.

[BillyStubbsTears]

The only way we have a No Deal outcome is through blundering mistakes.

The number of people in Parliament who want No Deal can be counted on the fingers of not very many fingers. Because, for all their posturing, they are grown-ups who don't, for the most part, want to wreck the country's economy.

No Deal has been flagged up as a negotiating strategy, and as a threat to try to whip MPs into supporting May's half-arsed deal. But there is zero chance of it ever being seriously countenanced as policy. Because no sane person wants an outcome whereby come the early 2020s, we'll have lost the equivalent of the entire NHS budget from our economy.

Not saying we won't stumble into it without intending to do, but that would be a dereliction of duty on a par with tipping us into an unwanted major war. And that's NOT Project Fear. That is the truth of the matter. No-one, and I MEAN no-one who has spent any serious time looking at this issue thinks a No Deal outcome would be anything other than an utter catastrophe.

May hasn't helped the public understanding of this by her inane "No deal is better than a bad deal" soundbite, and listening to BS, it sounds like some people really do believe that No Deal is a desirable outcome. But be under no illusions, to be worse than a no deal, we'd need a deal that involved us shipping boat loads of British virgins to Brussels to be sacrificed every year.

[Boomstick]

Where did I say a no deal is a desirable outcome ?