Brexit Negotiations

[BillyStubbsTears]

2 years to sort this lot out, and here we are 4 months from the deadline and the PM is still playing for time, we have a debate in the House of Commons where everyone knows this deal is going to get thrown out, why not just have the debate now and give the Country more time to organise a 2nd referendum

Filo

It was obvious two and a half years ago that we would get to this point.

https://www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=257611.msg635552#msg635552

You have to see Brexit for what it is.

It's not about democracy.

It's not about the Will of the People.

It's all about the civil war on the Right of British politics.

There was never and there still isn't ANY Brexit that is both acceptable to the Right of the Tory party, and not economically catastrophic for the country.

May's not stupid on the economics. That's why she's tried to have a watered down Brexit. (Still very bad, but not appalling bad).

But she can't carry her party with her on that. So she's ducked and dived for 2 years hoping something would turn up.

I've said it many times and I don't get any pleasure from it, but working class Donny folk who voted Leave have been played. They have been used as pawns in a game that's really about the heart and soul of the Tory party. Urged on by Farage and his mates who (it will come out next year) always had far darker motives.

In two weeks time, when Parliament votes down the May deal, we'll be faced with what an utter f**king shambles this whole process has been. And then we start picking up the pieces and trying to glue the country back together.

[selby]

  There really must be loads of dealers hoping this brexit lark goes on forever.
   There has never been such an extended time for the "shorters" and "longers" to bet along with the market.
  It has never been easier, just wait for some politician to open their gob and bingo just skim a little off the top.
  The really big guys must be having the time of their lives.
 

[drfchound]

One of the things I heard this morning, on the news, is that some MPs are planning to abstain in the vote or even be absent from Parliament on the day of the vote.

WTF is that all about?

Surely they are elected to add their weight to such decisions, not dodge them.

You mean they should be forced to vote on something they don't have an opinion on? Perhaps the whole electorate should be forced to vote, too, like they do in Australia. Then we can have the second referendum and be absolutely certain that everybody agrees with the result!

They might not have an opinion but they represent their constituents who do.
Thinking about the Australian rules, yes I like that, we should implement that here.

The outcome does affect us all.

[Glyn_Wigley]

One of the things I heard this morning, on the news, is that some MPs are planning to abstain in the vote or even be absent from Parliament on the day of the vote.

WTF is that all about?

Surely they are elected to add their weight to such decisions, not dodge them.

You mean they should be forced to vote on something they don't have an opinion on? Perhaps the whole electorate should be forced to vote, too, like they do in Australia. Then we can have the second referendum and be absolutely certain that everybody agrees with the result!

They might not have an opinion but they represent their constituents who do.
Thinking about the Australian rules, yes I like that, we should implement that here.

The outcome does affect us all.

May's constituency voted Remain. Should she represent their wishes?

Watching a Prime Minister vote against her own government would be a fascinating postscript to this whole mess.

[drfchound]

One of the things I heard this morning, on the news, is that some MPs are planning to abstain in the vote or even be absent from Parliament on the day of the vote.

WTF is that all about?

Surely they are elected to add their weight to such decisions, not dodge them.

You mean they should be forced to vote on something they don't have an opinion on? Perhaps the whole electorate should be forced to vote, too, like they do in Australia. Then we can have the second referendum and be absolutely certain that everybody agrees with the result!

They might not have an opinion but they represent their constituents who do.
Thinking about the Australian rules, yes I like that, we should implement that here.

The outcome does affect us all.

May's constituency voted Remain. Should she represent their wishes?

At least she cast her vote, something that her colleagues are suggesting they might not do.

[Glyn_Wigley]

One of the things I heard this morning, on the news, is that some MPs are planning to abstain in the vote or even be absent from Parliament on the day of the vote.

WTF is that all about?

Surely they are elected to add their weight to such decisions, not dodge them.

You mean they should be forced to vote on something they don't have an opinion on? Perhaps the whole electorate should be forced to vote, too, like they do in Australia. Then we can have the second referendum and be absolutely certain that everybody agrees with the result!

They might not have an opinion but they represent their constituents who do.
Thinking about the Australian rules, yes I like that, we should implement that here.

The outcome does affect us all.

May's constituency voted Remain. Should she represent their wishes?

At least she cast her vote, something that her colleagues are suggesting they might not do.

Aren't any MPs who abstain merely representing the 28% who abstained at the referendum..? They need to be represented just as much as the rest of us!

[BillyStubbsTears]

Hound

It's MPs who are caught in the trap of knowing that voting for Brexit will be a disaster, and that voting against Brexit will get them strung up by their constituents.

Good of the country Vs personal interest.

In a better society, it would be obvious what to do.

[drfchound]

One of the things I heard this morning, on the news, is that some MPs are planning to abstain in the vote or even be absent from Parliament on the day of the vote.

WTF is that all about?

Surely they are elected to add their weight to such decisions, not dodge them.

You mean they should be forced to vote on something they don't have an opinion on? Perhaps the whole electorate should be forced to vote, too, like they do in Australia. Then we can have the second referendum and be absolutely certain that everybody agrees with the result!

They might not have an opinion but they represent their constituents who do.
Thinking about the Australian rules, yes I like that, we should implement that here.

The outcome does affect us all.

May's constituency voted Remain. Should she represent their wishes?

At least she cast her vote, something that her colleagues are suggesting they might not do.

Aren't any MPs who abstain merely representing the 28% who abstained at the referendum..? They need to be represented just as much as the rest of us!

Yeah, if you say so.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Hound

It's MPs who are caught in the trap of knowing that voting for Brexit will be a disaster, and that voting against Brexit will get them strung up by their constituents.

Good of the country Vs personal interest.

In a better society, it would be obvious what to do.

Aye, abstain!

[drfchound]

Hound

It's MPs who are caught in the trap of knowing that voting for Brexit will be a disaster, and that voting against Brexit will get them strung up by their constituents.

Good of the country Vs personal interest.

In a better society, it would be obvious what to do.

Aye, abstain!

Well thanks for reinforcing my original question there GW.
BST is saying the same as me really.
Not really doing the job they are elected to do.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Hound

It's MPs who are caught in the trap of knowing that voting for Brexit will be a disaster, and that voting against Brexit will get them strung up by their constituents.

Good of the country Vs personal interest.

In a better society, it would be obvious what to do.

Aye, abstain!

Well thanks for reinforcing my original question there GW.
BST is saying the same as me really.
Not really doing the job they are elected to do.

Only if you think they're meant to act as their constituents puppets. Which is NOT what they're elected to do. They're elected to think and act on their constituent's behalf, not take their directions.

[Herbert Anchovy]

Listening to the Chancellor yesterday, it seems that by leaving the EU on the PM’s terms we have to decide whether we’re happy to accept slower economic growth for complete political ownership within the UK.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Listening to the Chancellor yesterday, it seems that by leaving the EU on the PM’s terms we have to decide whether we’re happy to accept slower economic growth for complete political ownership within the UK.

I think that was largely a given originally wasn't it?  I still tend to believe after a short term period of some pain things will change and pick up to relative normality.

As for the debate the Tories/Labour want to have.  How embarrassing they can't even agree on the bloody channel to have it on.

[Boomstick]

BS

Why do I feel like I'm on a hamster wheel?

I don't want to live in a country where banks and big business lose £200bn-£1trn of wealth. Because the effect of that will be utterly catastrophic for everyone in the country.

I don't know where this world is that you live in where ordinary people are magically insulated from what happens to Barclays Bank and Nissan, but if you have the directions, please pass them on.

So you accept the main industry for employment is the private sector ?

[drfchound]

Hound

It's MPs who are caught in the trap of knowing that voting for Brexit will be a disaster, and that voting against Brexit will get them strung up by their constituents.

Good of the country Vs personal interest.

In a better society, it would be obvious what to do.

Aye, abstain!

Well thanks for reinforcing my original question there GW.
BST is saying the same as me really.
Not really doing the job they are elected to do.

Only if you think they're meant to act as their constituents puppets. Which is NOT what they're elected to do. They're elected to think and act on their constituent's behalf, not take their directions.

Ahah, so if they are supposed to act on behalf of their constituents shouldn’t they turn up in Parliament and cast a vote next week.
It is probably the biggest thing they could vote on and to dodge it isn’t the right thing to do.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Listening to the Chancellor yesterday, it seems that by leaving the EU on the PM’s terms we have to decide whether we’re happy to accept slower economic growth for complete political ownership within the UK.

And there's the rub.

Leave told us we could have complete control over sovereignty AND improved economic performance.

Everyone now accepts that it's actually a trade off.

Remain. Have less control but best economic outlook.

May Deal. Have some minor control and bad but not appalling economic outlook.

No Deal. Complete control but economic apocalypse.

Take your pick. From a position of proper understanding now.

[Donnywolf]

Hound

It's MPs who are caught in the trap of knowing that voting for Brexit will be a disaster, and that voting against Brexit will get them strung up by their constituents.

Good of the country Vs personal interest.

In a better society, it would be obvious what to do.

Aye, abstain!

Well thanks for reinforcing my original question there GW.
BST is saying the same as me really.
Not really doing the job they are elected to do.

Only if you think they're meant to act as their constituents puppets. Which is NOT what they're elected to do. They're elected to think and act on their constituent's behalf, not take their directions.

Ahah, so if they are supposed to act on behalf of their constituents shouldn’t they turn up in Parliament and cast a vote next week.
It is probably the biggest thing they could vote on and to dodge it isn’t the right thing to do.

Its as I have said on here many times (who knows I might be right !!!) - the vast majority of the Politicians are looking for way out of a complete mess - but without getting blamed and getting their stupid legacy "tarnished".


May does not want to be the one who took us out - if it goes t**s up and she any many others on both sides can get themselves out of this by getting a Second Vote (eventually).

Then if "we" the people Vote to stay in after all, they the Politicians can immediately absolve themselves by saying we were pressurised into a Second Vote and the Electorate have changed their minds - so you Exit voters can blame those nasty Remainers who never gave up with their campaign to keep us in  - and not we the MPs who gave you a Referendum in the first place

If we vote to stay with the "Exit" Vote second time Round then the Politicians win again because they can simply say - we were pressurised into a second vote and tried to resist (Mrs May must have said "we must respect the Vote of the British Public" about 100 times in 3 hours the other day) but we eventually gave in and for what ? For the knowledgable electorate to say for a Second time "we want out". That would silence the Remainers for ages even if it goes t**s up. The MPs would be armed to the teeth with a Second Leave vote !

So for them its a Win Win and its where I think we will be heading

[Not Now Kato]

HA

You were asking for a positive political message about the EU, so if you don't mind, I'm going to stick on topic and not get sidetracked into the much broader question of political influence.

There were brutal civil wars in Yugoslavia and (to a lesser extent) Cyprus in the second half of the 20th century. None of the participants were in the EU at the time. NATO existed and its existence did nothing to prevent those wars from occuring. My point is that it is inconceivable that there would be civil wars or Inter-country wars in or between countries that ARE NOW members of the EU.

Similarly, the presence of NATO forces in Europe and the discipline of the Cold War did nothing to stop the Iberian peninsula being governed by fascist dictators up to the 1970s. Nor did it prevent a military coup d'etat in Greece.

It is inconceivable that any EU country would now see democracy collapse(*), and that is in large part due to discipline that membership of the EU imposes. It's one obvious reason why Turkey under Erdogan will never join the EU, despite the bald lies that the Leave campaign quietly pumped into vulnerable people's social media feeds in 2016.

And none of that covers the two FAR bigger issues. That the really dangerous historical fault lines in Europe have been between UK, France, Germany and Russia. The EU (and NATO, of course) has been instrumental in binding three if those together against the changing threat of the fourth. Why do you think Putin has invested so much time, money and effort in supporting anti-EU forces in the UK, France, Hungary, Poland, Italy...

That final point is the overwhelming political positive of the EU.

Billy,

As I stated earlier, its a given that nations that have economic interests in each other will tend to avoid conflict.

NATO may not have prevented the Balkan War, but DID (well us and the USA) stop it
While of course there have been no wars involving EU members, we are seeing a different threat to peace in Europe from the rise in extreme parties. This increase has been caused in large part by things such as mass unemployment, social dislocation and migration which in turn has been influenced by the EU. Look at things that are going on in Italy, Hungry, Germany, Austria. So while we're not seeing wars of the same magnitude as WW1 or WW2, things are far from peaceful in the EU.

Anyway, I note that you avoided my question regarding political control from the EU on VAT limits, so let me try another broader question. According to  the BBC, between 1993 and 2014 62% of laws introduced in the UK implemented EU obligations including all EU regulations, EU related Acts of Parliament and EU related Statutory Instruments. How would you sell this to a leave supporter as being better for Britain?

[Not Now Kato]

Meanwhile, on the financial front....
 
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/29/london-to-lose-800bn-to-frankfurt-as-banks-prepare-for-brexit?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
 
 
But don't worry, leavers tell us we're going to be better off in the long run 

[selby]

If we stay in, what do we need the house of Commons and the House of Lords for? we have 80 odd representatives in Brussels.
   We can get rid of layers of civil servants who feed off  parliament, just think of the money it would save just in second residents, and first class train fairs alone.
 Just let the EU do everything for us, laws, taxes the lot, that way we the taxpayers may get value for money, and rid of a bunch of nondescripts who just think of themselves and do not do what is best for the country.
  We could even bulldoze the houses of parliament and build social housing in the centre of London, it would save millions on repairs.

[Glyn_Wigley]

If we stay in, what do we need the house of Commons and the House of Lords for? we have 80 odd representatives in Brussels.
   We can get rid of layers of civil servants who feed off  parliament, just think of the money it would save just in second residents, and first class train fairs alone.
 Just let the EU do everything for us, laws, taxes the lot, that way we the taxpayers may get value for money, and rid of a bunch of nondescripts who just think of themselves and do not do what is best for the country.
  We could even bulldoze the houses of parliament and build social housing in the centre of London, it would save millions on repairs.

Scrap all local government too? Or do they perhaps do things that the EU doesn't cover, just as Parliament does?

[wilts rover]

One of the things I heard this morning, on the news, is that some MPs are planning to abstain in the vote or even be absent from Parliament on the day of the vote.

WTF is that all about?

Surely they are elected to add their weight to such decisions, not dodge them.

All bar 7 Labour MP's (+ the 4 independent Labour) have confirmed they will vote against May's deal. Out of these 11 only 1 has said she will vote for it - go on have a guess which constituency she represents....

https://evolvepolitics.com/here-are-the-12-labour-mps-who-are-considering-voting-for-theresa-mays-brexit-deal/

[drfchound]

One of the things I heard this morning, on the news, is that some MPs are planning to abstain in the vote or even be absent from Parliament on the day of the vote.

WTF is that all about?

Surely they are elected to add their weight to such decisions, not dodge them.

All bar 7 Labour MP's (+ the 4 independent Labour) have confirmed they will vote against May's deal. Out of these 11 only 1 has said she will vote for it - go on have a guess which constituency she represents....

https://evolvepolitics.com/here-are-the-12-labour-mps-who-are-considering-voting-for-theresa-mays-brexit-deal/

Wilts, as a political expert (not being funny by the way) can you tell me how many of the Labour MP's who are going to vote against Mays proposed deal are from a constituency which voted to leave.
Also, how many are there who are actually going to vote against it please.

[selby]

Glynn, eye get rid of them too, give everything to the EU, we pay them enough, let them look after us.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Going to be interesting when the vote takes place in Parliament.

Very few commentators (actually, no commentators) think May will win.

In a sane political world, that would be a career-ender. You can't lose a vote on THE most important legislation in a generation and carry on as PM.

But if she loses by just 10-20 votes, she'll go back to Brussels and ask for enough concessions to win a second Parliamentary vote.

If she loses by 50 or 100 votes, that's her gone and her deal with it. Since we'd then be facing a No Deal Apocalypse, I'm pretty sure that Parliament would ask the EU for an extension to Article 50, while a second referendum was organised.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Talking about a second referendum, it takes a lot to get me nodding my head in response to the words of a Tory lass from Rotherham, but this is bang on.

https://m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/second-brexit-referendum-could-be-held-on-may-30-says-justine-greening_uk_5bffec2be4b0864f4f6ad1ac

What could be on the ballot paper in a second EU referendum:

Which terms do you want the United Kingdom to adopt for its future relationship with the European Union?

1. Current terms – Remaining in the EU on current terms

2. The government’s terms – Accepting the terms that have been negotiated

3. No-deal terms – Leaving the EU on World Trade Organisation terms

Sounds familiar. Where have I heard that before?

[tommy toes]

Yes indeed!
I've got a horrible feeling though that if it is a tripartite vote then the country may very well go for the middle ground and back Treeza's  plan, especially as it would be everyones second choice.

[wilts rover]

One of the things I heard this morning, on the news, is that some MPs are planning to abstain in the vote or even be absent from Parliament on the day of the vote.

WTF is that all about?

Surely they are elected to add their weight to such decisions, not dodge them.

All bar 7 Labour MP's (+ the 4 independent Labour) have confirmed they will vote against May's deal. Out of these 11 only 1 has said she will vote for it - go on have a guess which constituency she represents....

https://evolvepolitics.com/here-are-the-12-labour-mps-who-are-considering-voting-for-theresa-mays-brexit-deal/

Wilts, as a political expert (not being funny by the way) can you tell me how many of the Labour MP's who are going to vote against Mays proposed deal are from a constituency which voted to leave.
Also, how many are there who are actually going to vote against it please.

Interesting questions hound. They didn't count the referendum vote by constituency so there are no totally accurate figures but the best guesses by the proper experts say about 100 Labour seats and 75 Tory seats from the 2017 GE voted Leave.
https://fullfact.org/europe/did-majority-conservative-and-labour-constituencies-vote-leave-eu-referendum/

Of course things have changed since then - as have people's opinions. According to the Robert Peston programme last night public opinion in most of these Labour seats has now shifted so that only around 20 now support remain. These people have done a lot of work on that and have graphs of the seats.
https://www.hopenothate.org.uk/2018/08/12/british-turning-backs-brexit/

In that first link I posted, Evolve Politics say they have contacted every Labour MP and asked them how they will vote on May's deal. 10 say they are undecided and only 1 has so far definitely said she will vote for it. All the rest say they will definitely vote against it. I believe most of those 11 are in seats that voted Leave in 2016 but not all (Jared O'Mara?)

The only one who has said she will definitely vote for May is of course Caroline Flint. So in a tight vote it could be Doncaster that takes the UK out of Europe. Now there's a thing.

[BillyStubbsTears]

You've got that the wrong way round Wilts.

100 Lab and 75 Con were the number of seats estimated to have vote Remain, not Leave.

[albie]

The difficulty with any new vote is accomodating a position like "Norway Plus" into the options.

It is not on the agenda with Treez in situ, but once she falls on her sword then I think the EU would be willing to accept this alternative as a face saving way out.

From their point of view, Norway Plus is an off the shelf solution which does not create any new precedents.

Getting public approval for a further option would stress test a new vote to breaking point though.
Bullshit fatigue is likely to play louder than any rational evaluation with Joe Public IMO!