50 points

[dickos1]

I imagine now even if we lost every game we’d be safe.
It’s been a very good season from October onwards.
Pressure will be on next season to be in and around the playoffs and I think if we’re not in the top half after ten games the knives will be back out

[Brian Young]

CBCB

Yeah, it’s always good to be reminded of that.

Is it also perhaps worth gently reminding you that, after we found our feet in September, we have picked up points at top-half of the table rate for nearly 2/3rds of a season?

Or that we’ve lost only 5 league games out of 21 since the clocks went back despite those games including away matches against 6 of the top 8 and despite long term injuries having robbed us of for much of that time, up to half a first XI in
McCullough
Kiwomya
Butler
Baudry
Andrew

plus assorted others?

A typical season so far under DF.?

[the vicar]

50 points.  BUT what a shit game we set off ok they could not get the ball, and then we went backwards 2 shots on target to there 1 could not pick a man o the match from any of them but if i had to i would say Tommy Rowe.  nether keeper had anything to do, i just wonder how many daisy chains they both made   

[Dutch Uncle]

We've reached the big 50, should now be safe.

I think we will be safe Les, but not if we end up losing our next 7 games, and stay on 50 points.

Bury and Northampton won't reach 50, and MK Dons might or might not. But I think all other teams may well reach 50. One win from our last seven will see us safe IMHO.

As I said much earlier in this thread, a team has been relegated from this league with 50 or more points in 15 of the 36 seasons since 3 points for a win, so it does happen. The highest points to be relegated is 54. 

[the vicar]

We've reached the big 50, should now be safe.

I think we will be safe Les, but not if we end up losing our next 7 games, and stay on 50 points.

Bury and Northampton won't reach 50, and MK Dons might or might not. But I think all other teams may well reach 50. One win from our last seven will see us safe IMHO.

Dutch its not only MK and Rochdale that have to win most of there games for us to go down its most of the teams below us that have to do the same if and IF WE LOSE all ours

[Dutch Uncle]

Look at the table again Vicar. All except Bury, Northampton and maybe MK Dons could easily get 50 points, even allowing for taking points off each other.

But I don't think we will finish on 50 points.

[Brian Young]

Last season when we were safe to go up ! We suddenly went on free points give away. Nah we need to play until it’s over and then look back and cry at the points we lost from winning positions.

[Lesonthewest]

Still believe survival will be fairly high this season so will stick by 52 points to see us completely safe.

[Dutch Uncle]

Still believe survival will be fairly high this season so will stick by 52 points to see us completely safe.

That would be my guess as well Les

[Alan Southstand]

Good yardstick next week - my dons away! Result there and I think we'll be ok.

[The Red Baron]

The next two games look very winnable. Personally I hope we win at MK next Saturday. It would hammer a nail in their coffin and would mean I've seen us win away this season!

[the vicar]

Look at the table again Vicar. All except Bury, Northampton and maybe MK Dons could easily get 50 points, even allowing for taking points off each other.

But I don't think we will finish on 50 points.

no nether do I, if we lose again Bury they all need sacking

[BigH]

Our home form is good; one defeat in the League since late October and that in a game where we got very unlucky losing both centre backs to injury.

And five of our last seven games are at home.

My hunch is that fourth from bottom will end up on 49 points.

[les@donr]

I think we are safe, our form is not relegation form, 3 points next week against Franchise will seal our position in L1 for next season.

[Chris Black come back]

Cannot see us going down now. It has never really looked on cards and we look good to stay clear of any trouble. After two years ago this is no mean achievement so well done to Ferguson and the team for building some solidity.

Interesting that in 2018 we have lost more than we have won, conceded as many as we have scored and averaged at just over a point a game. There was a golden spell of four wins and a draw out of six games leading up to Christmas that really did us well.

[adamtherover]

Mathematically, after today's results, 61 points is the current required total to absolutely guarantee safety.

There's still plenty of work to be done.

Wimbledon losing to Charlton this week would see the tally required drop by a further two points - a draw and it drops to 60, at least, before considering any results elsewhere.

What a load of tosh, you are suggesting the bottom 4 win every game left to the end of the season . What's that, about 20 odd wins on the spin combined  lol.   Sod their form for the first 40 games shall we? 
Mark my words, we are already safe, no more work at all needed. Feel free to bookmark this and bring it up later.. 

..plenty of work to be done!! ..   brilliant. .   

[The Red Baron]

Despite being the biggest pessimist going I don't think we have anything to worry about. However it would be good to finish this season strongly.

12 points from the last seven games would be a decent return.

[ravenrover]

Adam read the post properly, the key word is "mathematically", and we are not talking about just the bottom 4 winning all their games. Glad you are so confident, me I just want us 4 points clear when we play Wigan

[adamtherover]

Adam read the post properly, the key word is "mathematically", and we are not talking about just the bottom 4 winning all their games. Glad you are so confident, me I just want us 4 points clear when we play Wigan

Continue to read the post even more carefully and you will come across the key sentence, "there's still plenty of work to be done"   that's the kicker.   So the current safe position we are in isn't really all that safe .  When someone is talking about 61 pts, 60 pts etc..  when never in the history of ever has that amount been needed.   Statistically 48 is enough based on the huge amount of games played all ready..   everyone needs to relax....

[BillyStubbsTears]

Mathematically, after today's results, 61 points is the current required total to absolutely guarantee safety.

There's still plenty of work to be done.

Wimbledon losing to Charlton this week would see the tally required drop by a further two points - a draw and it drops to 60, at least, before considering any results elsewhere.

What a load of tosh, you are suggesting the bottom 4 win every game left to the end of the season . What's that, about 20 odd wins on the spin combined  lol.   Sod their form for the first 40 games shall we? 
Mark my words, we are already safe, no more work at all needed. Feel free to bookmark this and bring it up later.. 

..plenty of work to be done!! ..   brilliant. .   

On that note, I was idly wondering how many points you need to aim for at the first day of the season to be absolutely mathematically guaranteed to achieve safety.


I reckon it’s 82. As in, I think it is technically possible for the 4th bottom side to hit 81 points.

When does next season start?

[adamtherover]

I think its 69 actually, for every win there's a loss,  so 23 wins is the most every team can get if its averaged out. 

[Dutch Uncle]

Adam read the post properly, the key word is "mathematically", and we are not talking about just the bottom 4 winning all their games. Glad you are so confident, me I just want us 4 points clear when we play Wigan

Continue to read the post even more carefully and you will come across the key sentence, "there's still plenty of work to be done"   that's the kicker.   So the current safe position we are in isn't really all that safe .  When someone is talking about 61 pts, 60 pts etc..  when never in the history of ever has that amount been needed.   Statistically 48 is enough based on the huge amount of games played all ready..   everyone needs to relax....

I think what is meant is that there is more work to be done by a combination of our own results and opponents of relegation threatened teams helping to bridge that 11 point mathematical gap with a combination of our points won and other teams’ points lost. It may be all 11 can come from the latter.

[adamtherover]

It is 81 for 4th, bst is right, can you imagine needing a championship winning amount to avoid relegation.  Crazy...

[BillyStubbsTears]

I think its 69 actually, for every win there's a loss,  so 23 wins is the most every team can get if its averaged out. 

Close but there’s an aspect you’re not taking into account.

EDIT. Just seen your follow up.

[dickos1]

Last season the results faltered after it was mathematically impossible not to be promoted. That was why it happened, players thought job done. As it’s not mathematically impossible for us to go down you’d like to think the players won’t be thinking job done

[BillyStubbsTears]

Rigo
Actually we’re both wrong.

Assume the bottom 3 lose every game against the top 21.

Assume the top 21 win every other game against each other. That gives the top 21 69 points.

So far it’s as you say. But then the top 21 win EVERY game against the bottom 3, home AND away. That’s 6 games = 18 points. So in theory, all the top 21 could hit 87 points. So, the lowest number of points any side could have to get to be mathematically certain of not being relegated is 88.

[adamtherover]

Rigo
Actually we’re both wrong.

Assume the bottom 3 lose every game against the top 21.

Assume the top 21 win every other game against each other. That gives the top 21 69 points.

So far it’s as you say. But then the top 21 win EVERY game against the bottom 3, home AND away. That’s 6 games = 18 points. So in theory, all the top 21 could hit 87 points. So, the lowest number of points any side could have to get to be mathematically certain of not being relegated is 88.

The top.20 wining every other game against the other 19 sides gives 57 pts,  Plus the 8 won games home and away v the bottom 4 is 24 more pts, so 81 in total? 

[BillyStubbsTears]

Argh!

Wish I’d never started it!

I actually think Rigo was right and I mis-read his post.

Top 21 play a total of 40 games against the rest of the top 21. They each win 20 and lose 20. That’s 60 points. Then those 21 all win all six games against the bottom 3. That’s another 18 points. So top be sure of finishing outside relegation places you need 79 points. As Rigo said.

It’s interesting that even as late as now, the target for mathematical certainty is 62 points. That shows how little the options close down over the first 80-odd% of the season. From now to May, that figure will drop down dramatically to maybe 47-52 points as the possible alternative sets of results become more constricted.

[adamtherover]

Have we forgot the bottom 4, not 3 get relegated.   

[BillyStubbsTears]

No Adam.

The key target is one point more than the fourth bottom can get. So what matters is, how many points is the maximum that the 4th bottom can get. So you want the bottom three to get as few as possible so that there’s more points to grab for the rest of the sides.