Coronavirus

[BillyStubbsTears]

Belton.

As I said, if you are perfectly happy to give a free pass to Johnson egregiously lying to deflect blame, when ostensibly expressing remorse, then that's fine. I'll make my own judgement on your morality.


A TRUE leader, expressing TRUE remorse would have said. "I think on this day I should just really repeat that I am deeply sorry for every life that has been lost and, of course, as I was Prime Minister I take full responsibility for everything that the Government has done."

And he would have left it at that.

And I would have applauded him, just as I did in this very thread when he made what I thought was a superb address when announcing the first lockdown.

But he didn't. He followed it up with something which I find disgusting. If you don't, that's your choice.

[belton rover]

Billy. You’re right.

If I think differently to you, it really is my choice.
If you keep reminding me, I might start thinking you are just pretending I have a choice.

[selby]

  It was stated this morning that they now know that infected people from 113 different countries have entered the UK, down to us having Heathrow as a travel hub, and our population travelling themselves  more widely world wide than most countries populations.
  Also said as a comparison about a third of the French population have never left France.

[ravenrover]

And when asked why she had come for her jab the elderly lady said "I like to go abroad for my holidays and thought I'd better get a jab in case they wouldn't let me go" not to save my life or other peoples, just so I can go on holiday wtf!!!!

[Nudga]

All deaths matter! Or do they?


https://twitter.com/PhilipWatson_/status/1354173831343190016?s=19

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

As suspected, Johnson announces desire to open schools on March 8 when the 4 most vulnerable groups have been vaccinated.

He didn't say if school staff would be inoculated by that date. For me that should be a minimum before schools open fully again.

I see labour have called for this.  It's follow the science followed by don't follow the science.

Fact is we can't all get a vaccine quickly and we should protect the most vulnerable like we do with other vaccines.

If they intend to open schools ASAP,  then there is very good reason to prioritise school staff for vaccination. I'd say they are first on the list after NHS staff.

However this would put opening schools up back another few weeks. So they will let teachers take the risk, in the hope they will have enough hospital beds to cope.

I expect teachers unions will already be reacting to this proposal.

I'm coming round to thinking this may not be out of the question. The new infections are coming down much more rapidly than any of us could have hoped. If that continues into March, we could have got cases down to very low levels and give us the chance to cautiously start lifting the lockdown. We may even be in a position where TTTI would be able to help us control any subsequent initial outbreak.

The numbers do look positive and with the vaccine roll out and improving weather, come March they will probably look a lot better.

But we'll still need to be careful. I agree with Starmer, if the government meets its Feb 15 target for vaccinating vulnerable groups, then there is a window to target key workers, starting with teachers before schools open up.

Doesn't this all forget that you have to then give the 2nd dose of vaccine once the first lot is done?

[River Don]

Good point BFYP,

But there might still be a window, if they meet the target of 15 Feb, the vaccination program started more slowly and twelve weeks from the begining of the roll out is well into March for most, and April for the first AZ vaccines.

[BillyStubbsTears]

To me it seems odd that today the UK had nearly 59 thousand cases and France had just 4 thousand.... and yet the whilst the death tolls were similar - I think that France had about 25 less that our 400...

We went over this a few days ago when BB pointed it out.

Today's deaths are people who contracted COVID at the start of December. At that time, France was getting over the Oct/Nov outbreak. Our third wave was just starting. We had similar daily infection numbers, so it's no surprise that today we have similar deaths.

Over December, France's new daily infections fell significantly while ours have rocketed. Watch the trends in deaths for both countries over the rest of January. Theirs will drop towards 100 per day. Ours will fly past 1000.

Correction. I've just checked France's numbers. Their daily infection rate has actually been more or less stable through December. Their current 7 day average of COVID deaths is about 300 per day. I'd expect it to stay more or less the same through January.

Just a note to show that some things can be predicted.

Today's reported deaths.

UK 1725
France 350.

And before anybody starts, it should go without saying that there's no pleasure to be gained in being right about this. It was grimly inevitable, weeks ago.

[i_ateallthepies]

None of them will acknowledge it, BST.  Their egos won't allow them.

[Axholme Lion]

Good point BFYP,

But there might still be a window, if they meet the target of 15 Feb, the vaccination program started more slowly and twelve weeks from the begining of the roll out is well into March for most, and April for the first AZ vaccines.

Unless our 'friends' in the EU steal our allocation of the vaccine. Did you hear the German MEP on the wireless this morning warning us of the price we will pay if they don't get their order of the vaccine which they haven't even approved yet?
The British people don't like being threatened.

[Bentley Bullet]

None of them will acknowledge it, BST.  Their egos won't allow them.

Everybody predicts, and everybody brags about it if it turns out to be correct.

I think you're getting a bit confused between foresight and hindsight! It's hindsight that shouldn't be acknowledged.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Bragging? f**king bragging? Jesus f**king wept.

What I was doing was pointing out that these things can be predicted. We can estimate what is going to happen with this virus and we can plan ahead. We are not just victims of fate. I would have been delighted to have been totally wrong on this. But that was never going to happen, because the deaths we are reporting now were baked in once we lost control of the virus throughout December.

Grim times.

[Bentley Bullet]

I was responding to the bullshit post saying "none of them will acknowledge it, BST.  Their egos won't allow them."

What's your response to that?

Egos? f**king egos? Jesus f**king wept.

[belton rover]

To me it seems odd that today the UK had nearly 59 thousand cases and France had just 4 thousand.... and yet the whilst the death tolls were similar - I think that France had about 25 less that our 400...

We went over this a few days ago when BB pointed it out.

Today's deaths are people who contracted COVID at the start of December. At that time, France was getting over the Oct/Nov outbreak. Our third wave was just starting. We had similar daily infection numbers, so it's no surprise that today we have similar deaths.

Over December, France's new daily infections fell significantly while ours have rocketed. Watch the trends in deaths for both countries over the rest of January. Theirs will drop towards 100 per day. Ours will fly past 1000.

Correction. I've just checked France's numbers. Their daily infection rate has actually been more or less stable through December. Their current 7 day average of COVID deaths is about 300 per day. I'd expect it to stay more or less the same through January.

Just a note to show that some things can be predicted.

Today's reported deaths.

UK 1725
France 350.

And before anybody starts, it should go without saying that there's no pleasure to be gained in being right about this. It was grimly inevitable, weeks ago.

And two days before, France’s death toll was 510.
Hardly more or less 300.
Your prediction went from 100 to 300. The average is probably closer to 500.

Before you start, I don’t take any pleasure out of you being wrong about this.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Belton.

Once again you are misrepresenting what I said. Why do you insist on doing this?

1) I was clearly saying that the trend of the UK deaths was going to go steeply up and the trend of the French deaths was going to stay broadly flat at "more or less" where it was in early January. See the graph below.

2) Yes I said the French cases would go down to around 100 per day. Then I realised I had made a mistake in reading the trend in the French infections and I corrected for that mistake.


Why do you keep on poisoning every single interaction with this insistence of deliberately misreading both the black and white words and the intention behind them? What on earth do you get out of doing this? It is nasty, it is vindictive, it takes discussions off the substantive theme and onto personal attacks and above all, it is utterly embarrassing to you.


Despite your unpleasant response, this isn't about ME being right or wrong. It is about the fact that WE, HUMAN BEINGS can predict these things. It is important to establish that in a period where there is so much pushback against well-founded science.

I don't expect you to believe any of that, because you clearly have very deep-seated psychological issues when it comes to dealing with me. I will do my best to avoid initiating any more interactions with you, but I reserve the right to point out when you are being nasty, vindictive and deliberately misleading.

[selby]

Billy take a VG and a star, but have I read that the French infection rate is behind the German and UK in this wave of infections by three to six weeks and are expected to climb significantly in the coming weeks, if so should the congratulations be handed out after the event.
  Hopefully it doesn't happen over there at all, but could well happen especially with their record of rolling out their vaccination programme.

[belton rover]

Billy. I’ve done no such thing.
You you originally said 100 then realised your error and said it would be about 300.
I acknowledged that.
Then I counteracted your single day death rate in France of 350 on the 27th with 510 on the 25th.
Your average prediction was wrong.
Plain and simple.
No misrepresentation.
No accusation of bad faith.
Just pointing out you are wrong.

You can twist that into whatever you like. But the facts are clear. How on earth is that poisoning anything?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Selby.

France might have the beginnings of a problem, but it is not yet anything like the one that we've been dealing with. Their rate of postive tests per day has doubled since the start of December, so it might be that their daily death rate goes up to maybe 500 or so per day over February. Bad, but hopefully for them, not catastrophic.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Belton

Look at the precise words I said.

"Watch the trends in deaths for both countries over the rest of January. Theirs will drop towards 100 per day. Ours will fly past 1000."

I then corrected that because I had misread the French cases. I said the French deaths were around 300 a day then and I expected them to stay "More or less the same through January". (NB: You clearly did NOT acknowledge that. You said "your prediction went from 100 to 300". It didn't "go" anywhere. The initial one was replaced because it was wrong.)

The figures I gave very late last night were indicative of the point I had been making. Our daily deaths have flow past 1000. France's have stayed more or less the same.

In light of that, go and have a look at that graph and ask yourself why you felt compelled to start this argument, and specifically in a way that you chose to make it personal. And perhaps ask yourself what possible purpose that serves.

[Bentley Bullet]

Good news...

https://metro.co.uk/2021/01/28/england-covid-cases-fall-by-17-to-lowest-level-since-before-christmas-13980007/

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Labour, the government should follow the science. Also Angela Rayner - the scientists are wrong.


Labour's deputy leader, Angela Rayner, has contested the scientific advice on teachers put forward yesterday by England's deputy chief medical officer, Prof Jonathan Van-Tam.

Prof Van-Tam told a Downing Street briefing there was not a "markedly increased rate of infection or mortality" from Covid-19 among teachers.

But Ms Rayner told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that teachers "by virtue of them having to go out and do a frontline facing job, are more at risk of catching covid".

Pressed on why she was bringing herself into conflict with the scientific advice, she said she believed that "actually the data shows, absolutely shows, that frontline key workers who are out there are more at risk" adding, "teachers are frontline key workers".

She said that data showed "all front-line key workers, including teachers...are more at risk of infection and death - that's a fact".

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

I think in the long term it will be interesting to see whether there were things that made our society more at risk than others. Be that various social or racial demographics combined with density etc.  The link that interests me most is diabetes, perhaps that is a problem we need to consider much more in this country.  1 in 5 deaths were those with diabetes. But only 6% of our country has it. Should we have shielded diabetes persons in full?

[belton rover]

Belton

Look at the precise words I said.

"Watch the trends in deaths for both countries over the rest of January. Theirs will drop towards 100 per day. Ours will fly past 1000."

I then corrected that because I had misread the French cases. I said the French deaths were around 300 a day then and I expected them to stay "More or less the same through January". (NB: You clearly did NOT acknowledge that. You said "your prediction went from 100 to 300". It didn't "go" anywhere. The initial one was replaced because it was wrong.)

The figures I gave very late last night were indicative of the point I had been making. Our daily deaths have flow past 1000. France's have stayed the same.

In light of that, go and have a look at that graph and ask yourself why you felt compelled to start this argument, and specifically in a way that you chose to make it personal. And perhaps ask yourself what possible purpose that serves.

And yet you will not acknowledge that you were wrong in your prediction. One that you  reposted to ‘prove’ how right you were.

To be honest, Billy, I am getting really pissed off with having to read your ignorant, insulting antagonistic, repetitive, personal attacks on me, simply because I challenge you when you tell untruths.

You really are a nasty piece of work behind your keyboard, aren’t you? Much nastier than I ever imagined, until now.

You constantly ridicule many posters. You condescend, you belittle, you mock.

But worst of all, you haven’t got the courage to be honest about these things. It is ALWAYS the other person’s problem.

I actually think you have outgrown this forum. It’s not enough for you. The people on it are not enough for your bloated ego. You use this forum as your own personal soap box to spout your own personal diatribe and it has become so, so tiresome. I don’t even think you are interested in the opinions of those who tend to agree with you.

I wish you’d find a forum better suited to your needs.

[wilts rover]

Labour, the government should follow the science. Also Angela Rayner - the scientists are wrong.


Labour's deputy leader, Angela Rayner, has contested the scientific advice on teachers put forward yesterday by England's deputy chief medical officer, Prof Jonathan Van-Tam.

Prof Van-Tam told a Downing Street briefing there was not a "markedly increased rate of infection or mortality" from Covid-19 among teachers.

But Ms Rayner told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that teachers "by virtue of them having to go out and do a frontline facing job, are more at risk of catching covid".

Pressed on why she was bringing herself into conflict with the scientific advice, she said she believed that "actually the data shows, absolutely shows, that frontline key workers who are out there are more at risk" adding, "teachers are frontline key workers".

She said that data showed "all front-line key workers, including teachers...are more at risk of infection and death - that's a fact".

As posted a couple of days ago

570 teaching and support staff have died since March last year (ONS figures)

https://twitter.com/ToryFibs/status/1353679610370777088

[Axholme Lion]

.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Belton

I really don't know how I'm supposed to respond to that.

I posted intially about the fact that it was possible to predict a month ago that over January, our deaths would climb rapidly and France's would stay more or less the same.

That is precisely what has happened.

I pointed that out while expressly saying that I had no interest in ME being right. It is about the fact that these things are predictable.

You waded in with a snide insult and an obsessive fixation on the detail of the numbers, entirely missing the big picture.

And apparently it is my fault that the atmosphere is toxic.

There is a really important substantive point here which I was trying to address. There are millions of people out there who disbelieve the science of the epidemic. Several of them regularly post in here. I find that an extremely dangerous situation. I post on the science of COVID as a tiny, probably fruitless attempt to try to counter that. This was an example. This is a situation where we could apply scientific principles a month ago and get predictions. Those predictions have broadly come to pass.

I think that is an important thing to put across.

You seem to think it is more important to drag this down into a personal vendetta.

[Filo]

Belton

Look at the precise words I said.

"Watch the trends in deaths for both countries over the rest of January. Theirs will drop towards 100 per day. Ours will fly past 1000."

I then corrected that because I had misread the French cases. I said the French deaths were around 300 a day then and I expected them to stay "More or less the same through January". (NB: You clearly did NOT acknowledge that. You said "your prediction went from 100 to 300". It didn't "go" anywhere. The initial one was replaced because it was wrong.)

The figures I gave very late last night were indicative of the point I had been making. Our daily deaths have flow past 1000. France's have stayed the same.

In light of that, go and have a look at that graph and ask yourself why you felt compelled to start this argument, and specifically in a way that you chose to make it personal. And perhaps ask yourself what possible purpose that serves.

And yet you will not acknowledge that you were wrong in your prediction. One that you  reposted to ‘prove’ how right you were.

To be honest, Billy, I am getting really pissed off with having to read your ignorant, insulting antagonistic, repetitive, personal attacks on me, simply because I challenge you when you tell untruths.

You really are a nasty piece of work behind your keyboard, aren’t you? Much nastier than I ever imagined, until now.

You constantly ridicule many posters. You condescend, you belittle, you mock.

But worst of all, you haven’t got the courage to be honest about these things. It is ALWAYS the other person’s problem.

I actually think you have outgrown this forum. It’s not enough for you. The people on it are not enough for your bloated ego. You use this forum as your own personal soap box to spout your own personal diatribe and it has become so, so tiresome. I don’t even think you are interested in the opinions of those who tend to agree with you.

I wish you’d find a forum better suited to your needs.

How long have you been arbitrator of who canand can’t use the forum?

[belton rover]

Just my personal wish, Filo. As it clearly states.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Labour, the government should follow the science. Also Angela Rayner - the scientists are wrong.


Labour's deputy leader, Angela Rayner, has contested the scientific advice on teachers put forward yesterday by England's deputy chief medical officer, Prof Jonathan Van-Tam.

Prof Van-Tam told a Downing Street briefing there was not a "markedly increased rate of infection or mortality" from Covid-19 among teachers.

But Ms Rayner told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that teachers "by virtue of them having to go out and do a frontline facing job, are more at risk of catching covid".

Pressed on why she was bringing herself into conflict with the scientific advice, she said she believed that "actually the data shows, absolutely shows, that frontline key workers who are out there are more at risk" adding, "teachers are frontline key workers".

She said that data showed "all front-line key workers, including teachers...are more at risk of infection and death - that's a fact".

As posted a couple of days ago

570 teaching and support staff have died since March last year (ONS figures)

https://twitter.com/ToryFibs/status/1353679610370777088

Labour, the government should follow the science. Also Angela Rayner - the scientists are wrong.


Labour's deputy leader, Angela Rayner, has contested the scientific advice on teachers put forward yesterday by England's deputy chief medical officer, Prof Jonathan Van-Tam.

Prof Van-Tam told a Downing Street briefing there was not a "markedly increased rate of infection or mortality" from Covid-19 among teachers.

But Ms Rayner told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that teachers "by virtue of them having to go out and do a frontline facing job, are more at risk of catching covid".

Pressed on why she was bringing herself into conflict with the scientific advice, she said she believed that "actually the data shows, absolutely shows, that frontline key workers who are out there are more at risk" adding, "teachers are frontline key workers".

She said that data showed "all front-line key workers, including teachers...are more at risk of infection and death - that's a fact".

As posted a couple of days ago

570 teaching and support staff have died since March last year (ONS figures)

https://twitter.com/ToryFibs/status/1353679610370777088

Little bit naughty with their figures there, some of those aren't classed as educational staff (EG a childminder as one example).

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55795608

The above has much better data.  Tell me again that a teacher needs it more than those people?

[BillyStubbsTears]

I'm with you on this BFYP. I think Rayner is not being straight with this argument.