Form table

[Chris Black come back]

Perhaps, perhaps not. Again though you made something up. Another fantasy.

[andyst79]

Judging by our league position we're short all over the pitch, no room for sentiment even in successful teams there has to be some ruthlessness when it comes to recruitment and looking to improve on what you already have

You can’t look at the league position and say the current team is short all over the pitch.
We are where we are due to a horrendous start to the season, and a disastrous injury list.
If we’d had wood, Anderson, Sterry, senior, westbrooke, playing all season then the signings of Timmy, craig, and aledekun would’ve been made for a playoff push

Thats a bold statement based on a few decent results against teams pretty much in & around us in recent weeks. Injuries haven't helped this season but we concede goals for fun . According to this forum a month ago Anderson had gone at the game & we should never have signed Wood but now they should be our preferred cb pairing for a promotion push next season?!  Can't keep making excuses we're miles off it

That’s why people on here aren’t football league managers. They’re as good as anyone in this division.
It’s not just the results it’s the performances, since the surton game we’ve been excellent performance wise,
Regardless of results

Unfortunately footballs a results business, fair doo's an upturn in performances will hopefully improve results over time and hopefully Grant will improve us window upon window. Can't hide from the fact we're nowhere near at the minute & today we played a team challenging for playoffs and got done

[dickos1]

Results have improved

[dickos1]

Perhaps, perhaps not. Again though you made something up. Another fantasy.

You’ve just made a point on another thread stating port vale have lost 4 on the bounce.
When your this persnickety on my posts you think you’d be more careful.

[Sammy Chung was King]

We’ve improved by doing the simple things right. Two solid stoppers at the back and getting dug in more in midfield. The goalkeeper coming in has helped the backline. Biamou could be an inspired signing or not work out. We need someone to take the strain off Ironside here and there. It’s a deal we can’t lose on.

[ncRover]

According to xG for the season so far:

There are 13 teams with a worse defence than us

There is only 1 team with a worse attack than us

The attack has always been more of an issue than the defence

[GazLaz]

According to xG for the season so far:

There are 13 teams with a worse defence than us

There is only 1 team with a worse attack than us

The attack has always been more of an issue than the defence

I’ve said that for the last few seasons. Creating chances has been our issue.

[adamtherover]

According to xG for the season so far:

There are 13 teams with a worse defence than us

There is only 1 team with a worse attack than us

The attack has always been more of an issue than the defence

not sure how xg works, but there's 5 teams who have scored less than us ?

[BillyStubbsTears]

According to xG for the season so far:

There are 13 teams with a worse defence than us

There is only 1 team with a worse attack than us

The attack has always been more of an issue than the defence

not sure how xg works, but there's 5 teams who have scored less than us ?

It's based on how many goals a standard attack force at this level would expect to get from the quality of the chances they make.

So we are scoring at a bit better rate than might be expected from the chances we have made.

I don't know the numbers work, but it feels to me that we've scored more than our share of worldies this season. Nowt wrong with that. They all count. But you don't want to be relying on those goals. And if the xG figures are right, we are the weakest team in the division at creating really good chances. I wouldn't be able to put a strong argument against that, based on what I've seen this year.

[dickos1]

When were the “worldies?”
Nixon maybe, molyneux maybe but the play for that goal was outstanding.
Can’t recall any others

[ncRover]

https://www.fotmob.com/en-GB/leagues/109/stats/season/20723/teams/expected_goals_team/league-two-teams

The stats don’t lie dicko.

Ben Close has scored a few worldies.

And Ironside is a good finisher - he has 14 goals from 11.2xG. The opposite of the wasteful Miller last year. His main job is to be the dog’s body / link up and hold up guy. He is very good at that and I think that is critical at this level. He’s also one of our best defenders at set pieces. But he isn’t going to run the channels to give a midfielder a creative option that often. Others need to chip in.

I think in the summer we need 2 new fast and tricky goal scoring wide players (hopefully one is Hakeeb) and a creative attacking midfielder to play around Ironside. Then a different striker option off the bench or to rotate. Our general attacking play has been far too predictable this season.

It’s about getting the balance right.

[BillyStubbsTears]

The goals by Biggins and Close at FGR were outrageous. Nixon's against Mansfield even moreso. Add Molyneux's goals against Grimsby and MK Dons and that's at least 5 goals that have come from situations where the odds were very much against us scoring when the scorer cocked the trigger.

That's at least 11% of our goals that have come from situations that would have registered very low on the xG scale.

I said early on in the season after the FGR game that I was very concerned at how rarely we were looking like creating good chances. It has got a bit better, but we are still well off the standard required.

[dickos1]

That will be no different to any team, and I’m not sure either of molyneuxs goals could be described as odds very much against. The mk dons one he was clean through and granted the Grimsby one was a great finish but it was a shot 20 yards out, created from superb football starting from our keeper.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Count up the number of times you see efforts of those sort in a season.

 20? 30? 40?

And how often you see them result in goals.

3? 4?

[NickDRFC]

That will be no different to any team, and I’m not sure either of molyneuxs goals could be described as odds very much against. The mk dons one he was clean through and granted the Grimsby one was a great finish but it was a shot 20 yards out, created from superb football starting from our keeper.

What does the build up play have to do with it? XG is just dependent on the proportion of times a chance in that situation would have resulted in a goal.

[dickos1]

Both molyneuxs goals were nothing out of the ordinary, yes he put it in the top corner but it was a good chance and the mk dons goal was an excellent chance which we would’ve been very disappointed if he hadn’t scored.
The second Walsall goal yesterday was much more unexpected than either of molyneuxs,

[Jonathan]

I don’t know about anyone else, but I am delighted to have seen 44 wonder goals fly in this season, each one out of utterly nothing. It’s been breathtaking. But I’ll spend my days wondering what the reaction would’ve been like under Schofield.

[ForsolongaRover]

Both molyneuxs goals were nothing out of the ordinary, yes he put it in the top corner but it was a good chance and the mk dons goal was an excellent chance which we would’ve been very disappointed if he hadn’t scored.
The second Walsall goal yesterday was much more unexpected than either of molyneuxs,

Surely that is not the point. This is data, not opinion.

[ncRover]

I don’t know about anyone else, but I am delighted to have seen 44 wonder goals fly in this season, each one out of utterly nothing. It’s been breathtaking. But I’ll spend my days wondering what the reaction would’ve been like under Schofield.

You might have missed that also I said our defence has been above average this season (using that metric).

[NickDRFC]

I don’t know about anyone else, but I am delighted to have seen 44 wonder goals fly in this season, each one out of utterly nothing. It’s been breathtaking. But I’ll spend my days wondering what the reaction would’ve been like under Schofield.

Am I reading a different thread? Who has said anything about Schofield or that all of our goals have been wonder goals?

[pib]

Didn't go to Walsall and all I've seen is the highlights, but to me it was always going to be very tough. They are the form side in the league at the minute and look equipped for a play-off charge. No shame in the result really, given where we were a few weeks ago.

It was inevitable Faal was going to score, especially after being booed. We should focus less on ex-players and not give them the extra motivation to get one over on us, but I guess that message is never going to get across to some of our fanbase.

Just because our recent form was better, I was never expecting us to go on a lengthy unbeaten run between now and the end of the season. I'm a bit more relaxed now we're looking more likely to be safe and accept that we'll probably show patchy form again between now and the end of the season. We've made some good additions in January but we were never going to shoot up the league, as we need significant surgery to the squad again in the summer and the same deficiencies are still fundamentally there.

I don't think most folk on here need constantly reminding of this. I don't think many (if any) are of the delusion that we are a top 7 side in the making at this moment in time. We have had a relatively poor season, most would accept that. However, we have shown improvements in recent games, and I don't really get the attempts to undermine this. Very few people think we are now world-beaters. Most people seem to be of the hope (which I share) that we can carry on gradually turning the corner ahead of a really important season next season.

[Jonathan]

Didn't go to Walsall and all I've seen is the highlights, but to me it was always going to be very tough. They are the form side in the league at the minute and look equipped for a play-off charge. No shame in the result really, given where we were a few weeks ago.

It was inevitable Faal was going to score, especially after being booed. We should focus less on ex-players and not give them the extra motivation to get one over on us, but I guess that message is never going to get across to some of our fanbase.

Just because our recent form was better, I was never expecting us to go on a lengthy unbeaten run between now and the end of the season. I'm a bit more relaxed now we're looking more likely to be safe and accept that we'll probably show patchy form again between now and the end of the season. We've made some good additions in January but we were never going to shoot up the league, as we need significant surgery to the squad again in the summer and the same deficiencies are still fundamentally there.

I don't think most folk on here need constantly reminding of this. I don't think many (if any) are of the delusion that we are a top 7 side in the making at this moment in time. We have had a relatively poor season, most would accept that. However, we have shown improvements in recent games, and I don't really get the attempts to undermine this. Very few people think we are now world-beaters. Most people seem to be of the hope (which I share) that we can carry on gradually turning the corner ahead of a really important season next season.

Bang on.

[drfchound]

Didn't go to Walsall and all I've seen is the highlights, but to me it was always going to be very tough. They are the form side in the league at the minute and look equipped for a play-off charge. No shame in the result really, given where we were a few weeks ago.

It was inevitable Faal was going to score, especially after being booed. We should focus less on ex-players and not give them the extra motivation to get one over on us, but I guess that message is never going to get across to some of our fanbase.

Just because our recent form was better, I was never expecting us to go on a lengthy unbeaten run between now and the end of the season. I'm a bit more relaxed now we're looking more likely to be safe and accept that we'll probably show patchy form again between now and the end of the season. We've made some good additions in January but we were never going to shoot up the league, as we need significant surgery to the squad again in the summer and the same deficiencies are still fundamentally there.

I don't think most folk on here need constantly reminding of this. I don't think many (if any) are of the delusion that we are a top 7 side in the making at this moment in time. We have had a relatively poor season, most would accept that. However, we have shown improvements in recent games, and I don't really get the attempts to undermine this. Very few people think we are now world-beaters. Most people seem to be of the hope (which I share) that we can carry on gradually turning the corner ahead of a really important season next season.

Good post pib.

[dickos1]

Both molyneuxs goals were nothing out of the ordinary, yes he put it in the top corner but it was a good chance and the mk dons goal was an excellent chance which we would’ve been very disappointed if he hadn’t scored.
The second Walsall goal yesterday was much more unexpected than either of molyneuxs,

Surely that is not the point. This is data, not opinion.

It’s not data
It’s Billy’s opinion that these goals were worldies scored out of nowhere

[BillyStubbsTears]

I don’t know about anyone else, but I am delighted to have seen 44 wonder goals fly in this season, each one out of utterly nothing. It’s been breathtaking. But I’ll spend my days wondering what the reaction would’ve been like under Schofield.

Here we go again. For a smart lad, you don't half make some daft contributions.

The fact is that our xG figure is the lowest in the division. There's no getting away from that. It's a big problem. All my own contribution was aimed at was musing on how that squares with our goals tally only (!) being the 5th worst.

Literally no-one talked about 44 wonder goals, so God alone knows why you raise that. And that obsession with Schofield is very unhealthy.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Both molyneuxs goals were nothing out of the ordinary, yes he put it in the top corner but it was a good chance and the mk dons goal was an excellent chance which we would’ve been very disappointed if he hadn’t scored.
The second Walsall goal yesterday was much more unexpected than either of molyneuxs,

Surely that is not the point. This is data, not opinion.

It’s not data
It’s Billy’s opinion that these goals were worldies scored out of nowhere

We are doing angels on pin heads here. The fact is that a) we aren't very good at creating chances - worst side in the division according to xG data. And b) we are a little bit better at actually scoring goals. My comments were solely aimed at musing whether we'd scored a few more than normal that came from positions wouldn't flash up as high xG situations and whether that might explain the slight discrepancy.

We've had three goals this season which were utterly exceptional. The sort where at this level, 1 effort like that in maybe 25 or 50  goes in. Nixon's against Mansfield, and both goals against FGR. That immediately goes a bit of the way towards closing that gap. Molyneux's goals at MK and Grimsby weren't in the same exceptional category, but they were absolutely not ones that you tear your hair out and scream "how did he miss THAT" if they don't go in. See the image below of the MK game. If you think that was "an excellent chance and we would’ve been very disappointed if he hadn’t scored" then that goes a long way towards explaining why you and I see games very differently.

[MachoMadness]

Think the truth is we are about where we should be in the table. We aren't as bad as our early-season form suggested, and we aren't as good as our recent run suggested either. We are a below-average League 2 team in dire need of an overhaul, and most of the out of contract players still need shipping out in the summer.

My worry is that we'll fall into a trap with players like Molyneux (not picking on him in particular, he's just the first one who came to mind) and offer him a new contract based on our recent upturn in form, when in reality we should be aiming for better if we want to be anything more than a mediocre basement division side.

[Jonathan]

Both molyneuxs goals were nothing out of the ordinary, yes he put it in the top corner but it was a good chance and the mk dons goal was an excellent chance which we would’ve been very disappointed if he hadn’t scored.
The second Walsall goal yesterday was much more unexpected than either of molyneuxs,

Surely that is not the point. This is data, not opinion.

It’s not data
It’s Billy’s opinion that these goals were worldies scored out of nowhere

We are doing angels on pin heads here. The fact is that a) we aren't very good at creating chances - worst side in the division according to xG data. And b) we are a little bit better at actually scoring goals. My comments were solely aimed at musing whether we'd scored a few more than normal that came from positions wouldn't flash up as high xG situations and whether that might explain the slight discrepancy.

We've had three goals this season which were utterly exceptional. The sort where at this level, 1 effort like that in maybe 25 or 50  goes in. Nixon's against Mansfield, and both goals against FGR. That immediately goes a bit of the way towards closing that gap. Molyneux's goals at MK and Grimsby weren't in the same exceptional category, but they were absolutely not ones that you tear your hair out and scream "how did he miss THAT" if they don't go in. See the image below of the MK game. If you think that was "an excellent chance and we would’ve been very disappointed if he hadn’t scored" then that goes a long way towards explaining why you and I see games very differently.

This is reminding me of the time that Barry Bannan tapped one in against us from 25 yards and we needed a series of lines drawn showing how the positioning of Pontus Dhalberg made it the kind of simple chance that would have had XG indicators buzzing around the country.

[BillyStubbsTears]

You're on form today Jonathan. Another stupid contribution.

For what it's worth, the issue you are referring to came up when I pointed out that Bannan hadn't had to stick the ball right in the top corner. The ball went in a good couple of feet from the post and because Dahlberg had taken up such a poor position, he still got nowhere near it. Cracking shot but not the unsavable one in a million that some insisted it was.

It's a strange stance you're taking. Trying to make a point by demonstrating that you cannot properly remember an issue you were wrong about at the time. Good luck with that.

[ForsolongaRover]

Can someone explain why xG is not a data measure?