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You should always pay back your debts. If your politicians tell you that you can be more powerful than you are. If they lie to you and lead you into a situation that puts the whole continent at risk. If they then see the whole facade come crashing down, exposing their lies and their hubris. If those responsible leave the stage and leave the next generation with appalling debts and a shattered economy.If all that happens, the debt has to be paid. Right?
It seems to me the Greeks are just admitting what should have been admitted back in 2008.It isn't a question of illiquidity, we are insolvent.
So when you said that if you get into debt you pay the bill, it was b*llocks as usual.
I think economic decisions should be made in a way that tries to produce the greatest possible benefit for all concerned. I think that insisting that a country that is insolvent should go through 20 years of penance as some sort of morality tale lesson is stupid and counterproductive. I think that when a country is handing out moral lessons, it should be fully aware of its own past and how it was treated by those how it had wronged. The country I was referring to in my post this morning was not Greece in 2000-15. It was Germany in 1933-53. The German people allowed themselves to be misled by a wicked political idea. They took the whole of Europe into catastrophe. They ran up some of the biggest and unsustainable debts in history. And then, the countries they had wronged (including Greece!) wrote off the debts in 1953. Modern Germany was born from that far-sighted decision. Modern Germany is obscenely refusing to learn from that lesson in the way it deals with Greece. Modern Germany's grandfathers broke every rule that holds humanity together. And they were forgiven by far-sighted people who could see the greater good. The current leaders of Modern Germany ignore that and insist that Greece has to play by the rules. Even if the rules drive them into 3rd world status. Even though it was the stupidity of German creditors that allowed the situation to arise as much as the mendacity of Greek politicians.
Who's going to be first in pointing out the irony in that we have a Leeds United fan telling us we should pay our debts? How much did they default on at 10p to the £1, £50m was it? And how many small businesses went out of business as a result?
Demanding abject apologies. Insisting on your own omnipotence. An obsession with punishment. My mate the Freudian psychoanalyst is going to have a field day when I send some of Mick's posts onto her. Anyway, the ability to hold two contradictory thoughts at once is now condensed into one paragraph. First Mick tells us that countries act in their own interests. Then he says that Greece must be punished. No thought about what the consequences of that punishment might be for the creditor countries. This is the real stupidity of the Greek situation. The Austerity terms imposed on Greece by the Troika in 2011 effectively endured that Greece would never pay back it's debt. Because they have utterly crippled Greece's economy, and hence, it's ability to pay. Krugman did the numbers last week. He said that if Greece screws it's public sector (read "health system" "education system") to the ground and has a primary surplus of 4% per annum for the next 20 years (which is in heated of in the Western world) and pays EVERY PENNY of that to its creditors, it will still have paid back less than 20% of its debt. None of that will happen because it is impossible for a modern country to operate on those fiscal terms (as the West realised in the case of Germany in 1953). So, there are two options. 1) Some form of major debt restructuring, which effectively means that the creditors get nothing paid back until the Greek economy is seriously growing again. 2) Greece crashes out of the Euro and totally defaults on all it's debt. 1 would be politically messy, but could be spun to all sides as a partial success. 2 is what Germany is saying would be fine. Which is manifestly NOT in Germany's interests or those of any creditor. Because them they will get back nothing of the $240bn of debt that they are owed. And, whilst they may publicly say that the default of Greece would be controllable and would not destabilise the Euro, they have no idea if this is correct. It would be a terrifying gamble (that's a REAL gamble Mick, not an unplaced BetFair slip). And to what end? They'd risk the whole Euro project and ensure that the creditor never got a penny back simply to teach Greece a lesson?In a rational world, you'd laugh at even the thought of that. Trouble is, Merkel is painting herself into a corner on this one by playing to the gallery at home. She's told the German public that this is entirely Greece's fault and that Greece must pay. She's ignored the role that German banks played in making the loans in the first place, or the role that she played in socialising those debts in 2011. She's gone a long way up the mountain and it's a long way back down.
The Euro will collapse because there are too many competing national interests. That is true.Germany was always reluctant to give up the Dmark and throw its hat in with the EU project but France forced the issue. They will drag it out and drag it out.Greece is a lost cause, it knows it is now. If they had accepted that back in 2008 then they would be in a far better position now.
MickYou are utterly incapable of drawing any sort of robust conclusions.I stated the NUMBERS that Krugman quoted. Numbers Mick. things that add up and can be checked by any sentient being with enough ability to process facts. I said nothing about the OPINIONS of Krugman. Krugman has been making the wrong call about Greece for 4 years. He's been consistently saying that Greece was about to go and the Euro was about to collapse. He's been wrong on that, at the very least on the timescale.You see me quoting numbers, not quoting opinions and draw the conclusion that I'm being disingenuous.Go away idiot. I've got an all-nighter preparing a tender for my company and I'm spending no more time on your dribblings.
By the way, for the record, I got Krugman's numbers wrong. I didn't check them before posting. Just have done now. The period was 5 years, not 20. And the payback was 11% of the debt, not 20%. For further record, Krugman posted those numbers in an article explicitly commenting on why it would be a very bad thing for creditors if Greece was to leave the Euro, but that they could enforce that outcome if they wanted to humiliate Greece and teach them a lesson, at the expense of losing money themselves. Our resident liar checked none of those facts. He just lied and assumed that no one would notice. The article is here by the way. http://mobile.nytimes.com/blogs/krugman/2015/01/26/greece-think-flows-not-stocks/
Mick1. You could easily check them if you knew where to start.Greece's current debt is around 175% of GDP. Krugman states that if they followed the current plan (devoting their 4.5% surplus on Govt spending to servicing the debt) for the next 5 years, they would pay the creditors the sum of 20% of 1 year's worth of GDP. Or, as any numerate person could calculate, 11.4% of the total debt.2. You stated in relation to those figures (which you don't understand) that "Krugman was making the case for Greek withdrawal from the Euro ". He wasn't. You made that up. You lied about it. If I'm wrong about that, show me exactly where in that post Krugman was " making the case for Greek withdrawal from the Euro ".3. Yes I made a mistake in the earlier figures. My recall was incorrect. I should have checked the numbers first, but I was rushing. I got it wrong. When I checked later, I corrected the numbers. What grown-up people do when they make a mistake and realise it is to admit that and make a correction. What they don't do is try to cover their tracks by deletion, obfuscation, digging a bigger hole and lying. That's what little kids do when they've made a mistake.Now, go away while I get on with something more important that swatting away any irritating bug like you.
The Greeks would have to have their own currency before they can begin to 'accept responsibility' for the state they are in. As it is, since they don't have control over their own currency they are dependant on the EU.The current mess isn't helped while individual nations, not least Germany continue to behave as if they were independent sovereign states while the economic union they are wedded to demands they start to behave as a single nation. The Germans are well aware of the costs of supporting Greece but perhaps less aware of the benefits Germany gains from being an EZ member. The Deutsche Mark would be sky high now and German products far less competitive if it weren't for monetary union, as the recent Swiss experience has shown.Greece was allowed to join the common currency at a time when it was not ready, why should the EU and Germany not accept some responsibility now for allowing that to happen?
Syriza did want to get the country out of the Euro but they realised that despite everything the public still want to remain in it. So they changed their policy to get elected. They still might end up engineering a situation where Greece is forced out I suppose.I saw one commentator sum up the problem like this. The Germans want to sell luxury cars at Greek prices, while the Greeks want to sell olives at German prices. It sums up how divergent the two economies are quite nicely.