The Great Escape

[GazLaz]

Always said it was ridiculous to suggest season was over with 22 games to go,
The tough 8 games from MK dons to sheff wed people said it was impossible to get 9 points from those, well we have 6 from 4 so far.
If we come out of these games with 10-12 points then we’re in with a great chance

If we get 12 points from those 9 games, we still needs 20 points from the final 11 games to have any realistic chance.

The performance today was a massive improvement on Tuesday and that is good, but it doesn't change the depth of the hole that we are in.

It goes without saying that I'd be delighted to be wrong, but it's a 1 in 20 chance.

Yes, we have about a 5% chance of staying up. Not impossible, but improbable.

[Colemans Left Hook]

And to top it off,Bolton just equalised in added time to make the gap 8pts now

cant believe that  they scored in the 14th minute of 17 minutes injury time you don't realise how significant that Bolton goal will be (yes we might forgive Bolton for their antics if we stay up)

i presumed WIMBLEDON  MORECAMBE HAD WON

I HAVE BEEN SAYING FOR YONKS AND YONKS 43 POINTS MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO STAY UP   --- SEEN IT ALL BEFORE  --

A DRAW IS OK ON TUESDAY ... As the "radio-active" shocking decay of Wimbledon continues 

[Colemans Left Hook]

out of interest have we all forgotten we have never beaten this lot - if Sundies hadn't lost at home to Mansfield in the F A Cup then we would have got another shot at finally beating them .

It makes you wonder if some of us will still be alive when  we next play them in the league match (sobering thought).


Team doesn't look too bad -- it seems yours truely is the only one who believes we can stay up

the matches after this are starting to look a lot easier   

those two men in white coats at the front door are right pi$$ed off at the moment  -- but therere again they are on overtime

meant to quote this pre-match quote not the other 

[Jonathan]

Always said it was ridiculous to suggest season was over with 22 games to go,
The tough 8 games from MK dons to sheff wed people said it was impossible to get 9 points from those, well we have 6 from 4 so far.
If we come out of these games with 10-12 points then we’re in with a great chance

If we get 12 points from those 9 games, we still needs 20 points from the final 11 games to have any realistic chance.

The performance today was a massive improvement on Tuesday and that is good, but it doesn't change the depth of the hole that we are in.

It goes without saying that I'd be delighted to be wrong, but it's a 1 in 20 chance.

Here strikes the inveterate optimist again. Seriously I find all of your relentless positivity exhausting.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

One team always gets out of it. To me looking at the transfer window etc I'd say we have the best chance.  But it does need a top of the table run of results at some point to turn it round.

[Chris Black come back]

If there is a way through this, realistically we need to keep on the current form in this dreadful run we have, where we still have to play Ipswich, Portsmouth, Sheff Wed and Lincoln, then we hit a crucial run of games against Accrington, Gillingham, Cheltenham, Wimbledon and Fleetwood.

If we can squeeze maybe two hugely unexpected wins out of that first tough run, then win almost all in that second run, we might have a chance come the final stretch.

It’s all a very big ask though and again, what we have missed all season needs to be found - consistency in performance and ideally results, over several games.

[TixTheBox]

It’s got to be all about building for next season. That’s the smart way to go about it as it will also relieve the players of any feelings of pressure. If then that’s enough for the miracle, then great (very very very very unlikely).

The pressure was all on Sunderland today and not us and look what that’s achieved. A decent end to the season could really help us start next season well and McSheffrey has a chance to gel a section of his starting 11 next season, now. A lot of our challengers next season won’t have that comfort.

[Janso]

Said it to the young uns a few times in the last few weeks. Win as many as we can and hope for the best elsewhere then see where we are at the end of the week.

In situations like this you've just got to dream, not much point otherwise, even if it does look like it's over.

[dickos1]

After 30 games last year Wigan we’re on 27 points, they then lost their next 3 games so after 33 games they were still on 27 points.
They ended the season on 48 points and stayed up.
Burton did a very similar thing.

We’ve got every chance to stay up, other than the Rotherham game our performances have gone up a few levels over the last 5/6 games

[drfchound]

Most people are assuming that we will need fifty points to stay up but just looking back over just the last ten years, there have been plenty of occasions when teams with fewer points have stayed up.

[DRFCSouth]

Having had a quick look at fixtures till the end of the season, it is very much still possible to at least double our points to 44. That's with several defeats and draws thrown in.

It may be enough, or we may even exceed it. But even with an average to good run, we can at least make mid 40's.

Perhaps the key is getting off the bottom. That would do wonders for confidence.

Would we take a last 16 game record of:
P ?16 W 5 D 7 L3.

That would give us 44 pts

[BillyStubbsTears]

That’s not right billy
It’s 8 games, so after the Wednesday game we will have 12 games left and if we get 6 points from the next 4 like I said then we will be on 28 points with 12 games to go.

My mistake Dickos.

Doesn't change the big picture by much though. Whichever way you look at it, we'd need to have had playoff form for the last 20 games of the season to have any serious chance of staying up.

Not impossible of course, but even after yesterday, I don't think anyone really thinks this is a play-off standard squad.

[dickos1]

Since the MK game when many people on here were starting to suggest the season was over
We’ve taken 1.5 points per game, keep that up and we will end up with 46 points.
Only a slight increase on that will keep us up, 46 might even keep us up

[BillyStubbsTears]

Since the Rotherham game we've averaged 3 points a match. Keep that up and we'll end up on 70 points.

It's silly trying to extrapolate trends from very small samples.

[belton rover]

That’s not right billy
It’s 8 games, so after the Wednesday game we will have 12 games left and if we get 6 points from the next 4 like I said then we will be on 28 points with 12 games to go.

My mistake Dickos.

Doesn't change the big picture by much though. Whichever way you look at it, we'd need to have had playoff form for the last 20 games of the season to have any serious chance of staying up.

Not impossible of course, but even after yesterday, I don't think anyone really thinks this is a play-off standard squad.

We don’t need a play-off standard squad to go on a play-off standard run.
The team is unrecognisable from a few games ago. Rotherham aside, we have been competitive from MKD onwards. Suddenly, we are playing with desire, have competition for the starting 11 and I think we have found something very special in Rio.
We have every reason to believe we can do this.

[Filo]

Tuesday’s fixtures, that have on interest to us

AFC Wimbledon v Rotherham
Cheltenham v Sunderland
Crewe v Plymouth
Doncaster v Ipswich
Fleetwood v MK Dons
Gillingham v Cambridge
Lincoln v Morecambe


Get a win against Ipswich and we could easily be within 5 points of safety and closer to other teams

[belton rover]

Tuesday’s fixtures, that have on interest to us

AFC Wimbledon v Rotherham
Cheltenham v Sunderland
Crewe v Plymouth
Doncaster v Ipswich
Fleetwood v MK Dons
Gillingham v Cambridge
Lincoln v Morecambe


Get a win against Ipswich and we could easily be within 5 points of safety and closer to other teams

That’s the way we need to look at it - how many points are we from safety after each game, rather than all the graphs and pie-charts and algorithms nonsense.
Potentially, we could reduce the points difference by more than half in just two games. That would be such a confidence booster, worth much more than just 3 points.

[Filo]

Tuesday’s fixtures, that have on interest to us

AFC Wimbledon v Rotherham
Cheltenham v Sunderland
Crewe v Plymouth
Doncaster v Ipswich
Fleetwood v MK Dons
Gillingham v Cambridge
Lincoln v Morecambe


Get a win against Ipswich and we could easily be within 5 points of safety and closer to other teams

That’s the way we need to look at it - how many points are we from safety after each game, rather than all the graphs and pie-charts and algorithms nonsense.
Potentially, we could reduce the points difference by more than half in just two games. That would be such a confidence booster, worth much more than just 3 points.

And then Wimbledon have Sunderland next Saturday, two wins this week and we could very well be within 2 points of them

[dickos1]

Since the Rotherham game we've averaged 3 points a match. Keep that up and we'll end up on 70 points.

It's silly trying to extrapolate trends from very small samples.

I used the MK dons game because after the Cambridge game that’s the point when you and many others said we had no chance of staying up. And we had no chance of getting 9/10 points from the next 8 games.

[ColinDouglasHandshake]

Shrewsbury also slipping back into the mix again after looking like they'd pulled away given their form after we beat them really picked up.

[dickos1]

If there is a way through this, realistically we need to keep on the current form in this dreadful run we have, where we still have to play Ipswich, Portsmouth, Sheff Wed and Lincoln, then we hit a crucial run of games against Accrington, Gillingham, Cheltenham, Wimbledon and Fleetwood.

If we can squeeze maybe two hugely unexpected wins out of that first tough run, then win almost all in that second run, we might have a chance come the final stretch.

It’s all a very big ask though and again, what we have missed all season needs to be found - consistency in performance and ideally results, over several games.

Give over…
If we won 7 of those 9 games as you suggest, we will be looking to finish about 14th/15th
We’d be on 43 points with still 7 games to go.
If we get 15 points from those 9 games rather than the 21 you state, then we’re in with a great chance of getting out of it

[Chris Black come back]

I didn’t say we’d win 5 out of 5 in that second run. That’s something you’ve made up.

[dickos1]

Almost all you said,
If we manage 15 points from the next 9 games then we’re in with a great chance.
Leaves us needing 10-13 points from our last 7 games

[Woodhead Passer]

Taylor
Close
John
Fejiri
Anderson
Bostock

All still several weeks or months away, at a guess.

Crazy to think what our matchday squad would look like if they were back.

Hiwula to add to that list too. Any update on return dates? Don't think pre/post game interviewers have asked GMS for the last week or so. Thought Bostock & Anderson were meant to be back at the end of Jan.

After playing like we did yesterday, I think that list of injured players would all struggle to get back into the side.

[Woodhead Passer]

On the current PPG, 49 points is what is needed for safety.

We need 28pts from a possible 48 to reach the ultimate aim of 50. So a PPG of 1.75 (the same rate as 5th placed Oxford in their 30 games)

Current Pos	PPG Pos	Team	Played	Pts	PPG	PPG Expected Pts
17	16	Cheltenham	29	33	1.138	52
18	17	Lincoln	28	31	1.107	51
16	18	Shrewsbury	30	33	1.100	51
19	19	Fleetwood	29	31	1.069	49
20	20	Wimbledon	29	30	1.034	48
-----------	-----------	The dreaded line	-----------	-----------	-----------	-----------
21	21	Morecambe	30	29	0.967	44
22	22	Crewe	29	22	0.759	35
23	23	Gills	30	22	0.733	34
24	24	Rovers	30	22	0.733	34

[drfchound]

Since the Rotherham game we've averaged 3 points a match. Keep that up and we'll end up on 70 points.

It's silly trying to extrapolate trends from very small samples.

I used the MK dons game because after the Cambridge game that’s the point when you and many others said we had no chance of staying up. And we had no chance of getting 9/10 points from the next 8 games.

Dickos, after the first two games of this year I was one of the posters who thought we had no chance of escaping the drop.
With the players we had available at that point I think it would have been fair to think that.
However, things have changed quite dramatically and with the signings we have made plus signs of some key players being ready to play again I have changed my mind.
I now feel that there is positivity within the squad again and the win at Sunderland has instilled a strong belief within the squad that we have a fighting chance of staying up now.

[Campsall rover]

Since the Rotherham game we've averaged 3 points a match. Keep that up and we'll end up on 70 points.

It's silly trying to extrapolate trends from very small samples.

I used the MK dons game because after the Cambridge game that’s the point when you and many others said we had no chance of staying up. And we had no chance of getting 9/10 points from the next 8 games.

Dickos, after the first two games of this year I was one of the posters who thought we had no chance of escaping the drop.
With the players we had available at that point I think it would have been fair to think that.
However, things have changed quite dramatically and with the signings we have made plus signs of some key players being ready to play again I have changed my mind.
I now feel that there is positivity within the squad again and the win at Sunderland has instilled a strong belief within the squad that we have a fighting chance of staying up now.

Totally agree with you hound. 3 weeks ago we had a squad which quite obviously would not be good enough to avoid the drop.
Now with 8 new faces and let’s face it none of us expected 8 did we. 5 at the very most I think was the expectation.
We now have a squad that could possibly do what most of us thought was impossible a few weeks ago.
Not saying we will pull it off as it is still a very long shot but it is now possible I believe.
Yesterday will have been a massive confidence booster and if we can follow it up on Tues with another 3 points then the players themselves will start to believe they can achieve what looked impossible.

[Lindsey]

Since the Rotherham game we've averaged 3 points a match. Keep that up and we'll end up on 70 points.

It's silly trying to extrapolate trends from very small samples.

I used the MK dons game because after the Cambridge game that’s the point when you and many others said we had no chance of staying up. And we had no chance of getting 9/10 points from the next 8 games.

Dickos, after the first two games of this year I was one of the posters who thought we had no chance of escaping the drop.
With the players we had available at that point I think it would have been fair to think that.
However, things have changed quite dramatically and with the signings we have made plus signs of some key players being ready to play again I have changed my mind.
I now feel that there is positivity within the squad again and the win at Sunderland has instilled a strong belief within the squad that we have a fighting chance of staying up now.

Totally agree with you hound. 3 weeks ago we had a squad which quite obviously would not be good enough to avoid the drop.
Now with 8 new faces and let’s face it none of us expected 8 did we. 5 at the very most I think was the expectation.
We now have a squad that could possibly do what most of us thought was impossible a few weeks ago.
Not saying we will pull it off as it is still a very long shot but it is now possible I believe.
Yesterday will have been a massive confidence booster and if we can follow it up on Tues with another 3 points then the players themselves will start to believe they can achieve what looked impossible.

Hopefully Campsall, but it will take promotion form.

[danumdon]

Like the old saying goes, when the facts change you can change your mind about the facts.

I'll admit as above at the start of the window it looked to me the club had accepted its fate and was to go quietly into the night downwards.

The facts have changed, eight of them in fact and that has added a new emphasis to our season, the management are on a massive learning curve with very little time to recover from any mistakes they make, can they do it?

If the attitude and improvement and more importantly self belief in the squad can be maintained then the chance starts to develop into something achievable.

I think its fair to say its still in our hands, whilst ever that's the case then the thing can happen.

[andy didcott]

We will stay up.